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TEC Energy Risk Webinar Presentation


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TEC Energy Risk Webinar Presentation

  1. 1. Energy Risk & the End of Coal?:What does the closing of coal fired power plants mean for baseload power? Brought to you by #TECLive
  2. 2. About this WebinarHow you can share:• Submit your questions in the GotoWebinar presentation window• Follow along and share your thoughts on Twitter at #TECLive
  3. 3. About Today’s PanelBranko Terzic is currently Executive Director of Deloitte Center for EnergySolutions andthe Regulatory Policy Leader in Energy & Resources for Deloitte Services LP. He is amember of the National Coal Council advisory body to the President. Commissioner onFederal Energy Regulatory Commission and State of Wisconsin Public ServiceCommission.Bradford Radimer is the Director, Risk Control at NRG Energy, Inc. with over 40 yearsof energy industry experience. At NRG, Brad is responsible for designing and managingenterprise wide risk policies, policy compliance and transaction confirmations. Brad isalso Co-Leader of the team that wrote the CCRO Risk Management Standards forEnergy Market Participants.Jim Pierobon is a career-long energy marketing communications pro who has created andmanaged marketing programs and campaigns for multi-national companies, tradeassociations, government agencies and non-profits at transformational stages of the growth.currently owns a networked marketing consultancy, Pierobon & Partners LLC, with colleaguesin Houston, San Francisco and New York City. He blogs at #TECLive
  4. 4. Projected Capacity Retirements #TECLive
  5. 5. 2012 Long-Term ReliabilityAssessmentPreliminary HighlightsCourtesy ofDave NeviusSenior Vice President, NERC
  6. 6. NERC Preliminary Year when each Assessment Area’s projected Anticipated Reserve Margin falls below the NERC Reference Margin Level SaskPower (W) MAPP (S) Manitoba (W) MISO-US (S) Ontario IESO (S) 2014, 2016, 2020 2020 2021 2021 2017BC (W) 2020AESO (S) 2020NORW (S) 2019BASN (S) 2019 PJM (S)ROCK (S) 2020 2018CALN (S) 2018MEXW (S) ERCOT (S) 2021 2013
  7. 7. NERC Preliminary 2013-2022 Capacity Outlook Future-Planned Net Peak Capacity Change (Does not include Conceptual resources) 2013 Capacity Mix 90 80 0% 19% 10-Year Change 28% 70 11% 60 5% 50 40 Gas and Renewables 37% 30 make up bulk of additionsWw 2022 Future-PlannedGagst)(i Capacity Mix 20 0% 10 20% 26% 0 11% -10 5% -20 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 38% 2013 Existing and Planned 2022 Planned 2022 Conceptual 10-Year ChangeCapacity Type Capacity Share of Total Capacity Share of Total Capacity Share of Total Planned ConceptualCoal 307,201 28.22% 290,496 25.85% 294,641 23.74% -16,705 -12,560Petroleum 52,410 4.81% 52,410 4.66% 52,377 4.22% 0 -33Gas 409,045 37.57% 427,165 38.02% 493,924 39.80% 18,120 84,878Nuclear 117,151 10.76% 124,225 11.06% 127,357 10.26% 7,074 10,206Other/Unknown 411 0.04% 5,850 0.52% 6,229 0.50% 5,438 5,818Renewables 202,546 18.60% 223,516 19.89% 266,448 21.47% 20,971 63,903TOTAL 1,088,764 100.00% 1,123,663 100.00% 1,240,977 100.00% 34,899 152,213 Preliminary Data
  8. 8. Deloitte’s Sixteen Cases to Infer Answers CO2 Cap Case 1 SO2, NOx, Hg Cap No CO2 Case 2 RPS w/REC CO2 Cap No SO2, NOx, Hg Case 3 No CO2 Case 4 High Gas Price CO2 Cap Case 5 SO2, NOx, Hg Cap No CO2 Case 6 No RPS CO2 Cap Case 7 No SO2, NOx, Hg No CO2 Case 8 CO2 Cap SO2, NOx, Hg Cap Case 9 No CO2 Case 10 RPS w/REC CO2 Cap No SO2, NOx, Hg Case 11 No CO2 Case 12 Low Gas Price CO2 Cap SO2, NOx, Hg Cap Case 13 No CO2 No RPS Case 14 CO2 Cap Case 15 No SO2, NOx, Hg No CO2 Case 16 Copyright © 2012 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved
  9. 9. Annual Power Generation (MWh) —Case 1 (“All In” Regulation) 6E+09 5E+09 RN ST CT 4E+09 3E+09 CC W M G h n o a r e ) ( t i 2E+09 LS Coal FG CC DC S oal HS Coal 1E+09 Nuclear 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Year Copyright © 2012 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved
  10. 10. Annual Average Wholesale Electricity Price Copyright © 2012 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved
  11. 11. Modeled with Deloitte MarketPoint IntegratedModel Suite North American Coal Prairie Canada North American Gas Northwest Fort Northern British Western NPRB Union Appalachia / Columbia Canada Green River Basin Illinois Pittsburg #8 British Alberta SPRB Basin Saskatchewan ColumbiaKingsgate Monchy E. Canada Eastern Uinta Basin Emerson Central Huntingdon Ontario Iroquois Canada Central Southwest / Interior Appalachia Pacific NW N. NE Pac. Niagara New Mexico NW Great Midwest Southern Rocky Plains Mid Mtns ENC Appalachia N. Cal Atlantic Gulf Coast / TX WNC+ Mtn EOR San Appalachia PGE Anadarko So.Cal Juan Off- North American Electric and Emissions SCG SDGE Permian Basin WSC ESC S. Atlantic Shore Atlantic Mexico Gulf Coast WECC Brit Col WECC Alberta NPCC NPCC Canada East Quebec MAPP Canada NPCC Ontario NEPOOL Northeast World Gas NYPP North WECC Montana WECC MAPP USast - E NEPOOL Southwest Pac NW MAPP US -West WECC MAIN NYPP West Idaho WUM ECAR Michigan NYPP South FSU WECC Wyoming MAAC WECC MAPP US -South MAAC West East COB MAIN Pacific NIL WECC N Nevada MAAC South ECAR East ECAR North WEC West Rim N CA MAIN Europe WECC Utah WECC SOM VACAR North Colorado SPP WECC North America Bay CA VACAR Entergy North TVA Central East WECC Ctrl CA WECC S Nevada TVA North/South SPP VACAR South WECC South S CA New TVA WECC Arizona Mexico Entergy Central West Southern Central Southern East WECC ERCOT North CMB Southern Middle West Entergy South ERCOT West Mainland ERCOT FRCC North Central ERCOT Gulf East ERCOT FRCC South Asia Latin South America NOx SOx CO2 Hg Australia Africa The four entitlement NOx SOx CO2 Hg hubs Copyright © 2012 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved
  12. 12. Thank You for Joining Us• This webinar will be available on-demand at Stop by to learn more and share your comments.• Connect with our panelists on The Energy Collective