CONTRACT
EXPIRY
DATE
CLOSING
PRICE
TREND**
DATE TREND
CHANGED
RATE TREND
CHANGED
CLOSING
STOP LOSS
NCDEX (AGRI)
Soy Bean (...
COMMODITY
EXPIRY
DATE
CLOSING
PRICE
TREND**
DATE TREND
CHANGED
RATE TREND
CHANGED
CLOSING
STOP LOSS
COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS...
Spices: Turmeric futures (Oct) will remain in range as as some delay is seen in new crop. Steady to firm arrivals had kept...
TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES
IST Economic releases Importance Expected Previous
Impact on
Commodity
Adverse/Favourable/
Neu...
SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other conside...
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SMC Global Commodity Research Daily Report 24.09.13

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SMC Global Commodity Research Daily Report 24.09.13

  1. 1. CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Oct) 18-Oct-13 3432.50 Down 10.09.13 3359.50 3550.00 Soy Bean (Nov) 20-Nov-13 3452.50 Down 10.09.13 3370.00 3575.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Oct) 18-Oct-13 661.85 Down 10.09.13 656.45 665.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Nov) 20-Nov-13 661.40 Down 10.09.13 655.00 670.00 RM seeds (Oct) 18-Oct-13 3500.00 Up 21.08.13 3470.00 3450.00 RM seeds (Nov) 20-Nov-13 3547.00 Up 21.08.13 3497.00 3450.00 Turmeric (Oct) 18-Oct-13 4878.00 Sideways 21.08.13 5116.00 - Turmeric (Nov) 20-Nov-13 5002.00 Sideways 21.08.13 5176.00 - Jeera (Oct) 18-Oct-13 12995.00 Sideways 18.09.13 13400.00 - Jeera (Nov) 20-Nov-13 13197.50 Sideways 18.09.13 13580.00 - Chilli (Oct) 18-Oct-13 5544.00 Down 06.09.13 5454.00 5800.00 Chilli (Nov) 20-Nov-13 5944.00 Down 06.09.13 5770.00 6100.00 Chana (Oct) 18-Oct-13 3077.00 Sideways 21.09.13 3043.00 - Chana (Nov) 20-Nov-13 3162.00 Up 21.08.13 3274.00 2950.00 Cocud (Dec) 20-Dec-13 1448.00 Down 19.09.13 1438.00 1520.00 Cocud (Jan 14) 20-Jan-14 1462.00 Down 19.09.13 1456.00 1530.00 MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Oct) 15-Oct-13 762.10 Sideways 13.08.13 799.30 - Cardamom (Nov) 15-Nov-13 803.10 Sideways 13.08.13 842.40 - Mentha Oil (Sept) 30-Sep-13 869.60 Down 10.09.13 892.30 920.00 Mentha Oil (Oct) 31-Oct-13 884.50 Down 10.09.13 905.50 930.00 SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 24 th September, 2013
  2. 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 23.09.13) Silver (Dec) ($) 26-Dec-13 21.86 Sideways 13.09.13 21.72 - Gold (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 1327.00 Sideways 12.09.13 1330.60 - Crude Oil (Nov) ($) 22-Oct-13 103.59 Sideways 20.09.13 104.75 Natural Gas (Oct) ($) 29-Oct-13 3.68 Down 02.05.13 4.025 3.90 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 23.09.13) Silver (Dec) 5-Dec-13 49393.00 Down 10.09.13 52235.00 54500.00 Gold (Oct) 5-Oct-13 29874.00 Down 10.09.13 30753.00 31200.00 Crude Oil (Oct) 21-Oct-13 6535.00 Down 09.09.13 7056.00 6950.00 Natural Gas (Sept) 25-Sept-13 226.40 Down 06.09.13 229.60 240.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 23.09.13) Copper (Nov) 29-Nov-13 464.05 Down 06.09.13 474.25 482.00 Aluminum (Sept) 30-Sep-13 111.65 Down 04.09.13 117.25 115.00 Zinc (Sept) 30-Sep-13 116.85 Down 06.09.13 121.50 123.00 Lead (Sept) 30-Sep-13 129.65 Down 09.09.13 137.95 138.00 Nickel (Sept) 30-Sep-13 872.60 Down 06.09.13 903.10 940.00 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 23.09.13) Copper 3 Months 7245.00 Sideways 29.08.13 7153.00 - Aluminum 3 Months 1817.50 Down 04.09.13 1789.50 1880.00 Zinc 3 Months 1895.00 Up 15.08.13 1944.00 1840.00 Lead 3 Months 2081.00 Sideways 13.09.13 2071.00 - Nickel 3 Months 13950.00 Down 04.09.13 13680.00 14800.00 **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  3. 3. Spices: Turmeric futures (Oct) will remain in range as as some delay is seen in new crop. Steady to firm arrivals had kept a tab on turmeric prices in last few days. Traders and exporters are waiting for bulk demand from North India. Cardamom futures may tumble again on short selling by speculators. Weak export demand, strong availability of the commodity amid weak trend in the spices complex may trigger selling. Adequate stocks in the physical market put pressure on the cardamom prices Jeera futures (Oct) is likely to slip lower due to weak local demand and selling pressure. However, the supply remains poor and demand is expected to increase in the current crop year (February-March) due to poor prospects from politically unstable Syria. A downside bias may continue in chilli futures due to prevailing weak trend at the spot market. However dwindling acreage of chilli in AP, especially Guntur might limit the sharp fall of prices. Oilseeds: Soybean futures (Oct) is likely to feature range bound movement with a weak bias on higher soybean production estimates and new crop arrival pressure. Soybean November contract in CBOT finished down for the 3rd consecutive trading session due to growing possibility of higher production. CPO futures (Sept) is likely to remain lower amid subdued spot demand. Weak trend in overseas market further may fuel the downtrend in crude palm oil futures. Palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia, is expected to start rising this month as trees enter the peak production cycle, while rainfall in the U.S. Midwest is likely to boost yields of the moisture-stressed soybean crop. Mustard futures (Oct) is likely to remain bearish as higher overall kharif oilseeds crop prospects on higher acreage will continue to pressurize the markets. Global supplies of rapeseed are widely believed to rise which will put pressure on the rapeseed prices. Other Commodities: Sugar price may trade with negative bias due to expectations of higher supplies from the new crop. Continuous supply from millers to ease off their stocks ahead of coming crushing season may weigh on prices. Chana futures (Oct) is likely to trade with negative bias as The Union Cabinet has decided to extend the stock holding limit on pulses by one year to September 30, 2014. This will help in controlling prices of pulses in various parts of the country. Better pulses production reports and sufficient stock to meet the festive demand are also pressurizing the market sentiments. Guar futures may slip as the trend looks weak due to huge stock left with farmers. Consistent arrivals of guar in the markets led the prices downwards. Market regulator FMC is asking the exchanges to probe the price fluctuations in guar trading. Wheat future may trade in the range due to lackluster trading activities. Supply remains ample and only needful buying is talking place. Market Update (Agro) Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to trade on flat note tracking mixed international cues. In MCX weakness in local currency rupee may give support the prices. Gold can move in range of 29600-30000 while silver contract can move in range of 49000-50500 in MCX. Gold edged higher on Tuesday following three days of losses, but gains were limited on uncertainty over when the U.S. Federal Reserve would begin tapering its stimulus measures. The Federal Reserve must for now continue to push hard against threats to the U.S. recovery, but should still be able to reduce its support for the economy later this year, New York Fed President William Dudley said on Monday. SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.07 percent, or 0.6 tonnes, to 909.59 tonnes on Monday. Base Metals: Base metal complex may open with negative path but some short covering can be seen at lower levels Copper may trade in range of 460-472 in MCX. Lead may trade in range of 127-132 while zinc may trade in range of 115-118 in near term. Nickel may remain in range of 860-885 in MCX while aluminum may trade in range of 110-113. London copper edged down on Tuesday as the prospect of rising supply overshadowed a brightening outlook for demand, with data this week showing a flood of European and Chinese manufacturing orders in September. The global market for refined copper is expected to swing into a 153,000 tonne surplus this year. A flood of new orders gave a boost to European and Chinese firms in September although weakness in U.S. factory activity tempered evidence of a healing global economy. The Federal Reserve must for now continue to push hard against threats to the U.S. recovery, but should still be able to reduce its support for the economy later this year, a central bank policymaker said. Energy: Crude oil counter can trade sideways in range of 6500-6600 while Natural gas may trade in range of 222-230 in MCX. Brent crude edged down near $108 a barrel on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions eased slightly ahead of nuclear talks involving Iran and the United States later this week, while rising oil supply from Iraq and Libya weighed on prices. Iran has agreed to new talks on its nuclear programme with top diplomats from six world powers, including U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, raising hopes that Tehran's relations with the United States could thaw.U.S. officials have also said a meeting is possible this week between President Barack Obama and Iran's new centrist president, Hassan Rouhani.
  4. 4. TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES IST Economic releases Importance Expected Previous Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable/ Neutral 13:30 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Medium 108 107.5 Metals and Crude oil Favourable 13:30 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Medium 112.6 112 Metals and Crude oil Favourable 13:30 EUR German IFO - Expectations Medium 104 103.3 Metals and Crude oil Favourable 18:30 USD House Price Index (MoM) Medium 0.90% 0.70% Metals and Crude oil Favourable 19:30 USD Consumer Confidence High 80.3 81.5 Metals and Crude oil Adverse
  5. 5. SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at www.sebi.gov.in and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at www.tatacapital.com and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at www.ilfscapital.com. Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011- 25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651 You can also read this report on our website “www.smctradeonline.com” DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.

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