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NBIX trade


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NBIX trade

  1. 1. NBIX: Gap Up Continuation Long on News Catalyst SIP Clayton Yee 01/07/2014
  2. 2. SMB TRAINING is NOT a Broker Dealer. SMB Training engages in trader education and training. SMB TRAINING offers a number of products and services, both electronical (over the internet through and in person. SMB TRAINING also offers web-based, interactive training courses on demand. The seminars given by SMB TRAINING are for educational purposes only. This information neither is, nor should be construed, as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities. You shall be fully responsible for any investment decision you make, and such decisions will be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. This material is being provided to you for educational purposes only. No information presented constitutes a recommendation by SMB TRAINING or its affiliates to buy, sell or hold any security, financial product or instrument discussed therein or to engage in any specific investment strategy. The content neither is, nor should be construed as, an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy, sell, or hold any securities. You are fully responsible for any investment decisions you make. Such decisions should be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances. Such decisions should be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs. SMB Training and SMB Capital Management, LLC are separate but affiliated companies. No relevant positions Please note: Hypothetical computer simulated performance results are believed to be accurately presented. However, they are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and are subject to change without any notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Since, also, the trades have not actually been executed; the results may have been under or over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any portfolio will, or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. All investments and trades carry risks.”
  3. 3. NBIX • ADV: 683K (below 1M, but premarket already traded over 1M shares) • ATR: 0.35 • SF: 6% • Sector: Healthcare, Drug Manufacturers
  4. 4. Big Picture • • • • 1st three 2014 trading days ES down Overnight, grind up, back in middle of 2014 range. 1833 was last weak S and 2014 R; 1818 YL, 2014 L This is not a market play. Based on news catalyst.
  5. 5. Intraday Fundamentals • Yesterday, after the close, NBIX announced good clinical trial results for one of their drugs. • The company has no products yet. • Steve tweeted yesterday to keep an eye on this today • On premarket most active list
  6. 6. Technical Analysis • • Overnight gap: YC 9.76 pre-market open 16 Pre market, holding VWAP since 09:00
  7. 7. Reading the Tape • Since 08:25, grinding up • 09:27, held bid at 15.35 dropped, but stock went up • 10:19, pullback test (16.10) of opening drive H (16.13) was a place I considered adding
  8. 8. Trade Management
  9. 9. Trade Review • What went well – Identified SIP, levels and setup – I actually did a better job sitting with my anxiety and discomfort than in the past and am continuing to improve • Areas of improvement – Be more patient for better risk-reward on initial entry • If decide to do a feeler, start with small size – Improve holding for a reason2sell, being nervous and anxious is not one of them. • A trend line break was one possibility in this trade – I am working on holding a core position. I am too easily spooked out. – I had noted the opening drive H level (16.13) as a intraday key level. Once we broke above and held, that was a place to consider adding. – ATH 16.73 break was also a place to look for adding.
  10. 10. Next Trade • Watch for continued follow through the next day and see if today’s levels act as support.