Earnings season webinar

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Earnings season webinar

  1. 1. Are You Making the Most Out ofEarnings Season?Mike BellafioreCo-Founder, SMB CapitalCo-Founder, SMB UAuthor, One Good Trade and The PlayBook
  2. 2. GoalsHow good can you be?Share some of what we teach our tradersDiscuss opportunities 4U to tap into our deskAnswer your questionsHave some fun!
  3. 3. One Good Trade“trading classic”“the bible of prop trading”Stocks In Play
  4. 4. FB Historic IPO Trade Review
  5. 5. Stocks In PlaySuper Stocks In Play WebinarNews Catalysts+/- 3 percent on the OpenIncreased relative volume
  6. 6. Strategy• Stocks that can cleanly trend• Stronger and weaker than the market• Follow the trend until it ends• Reasons2Sell Webinar
  7. 7. Questions?
  8. 8. Trade Examples from thisEarnings Season• Gold• Solarso FSLR, SPWR• AAPL• CRUS• VXX
  9. 9. Improving your P&L• Where is your money going to come from?• Big Ideas?• Theses + Price Confirmation
  10. 10. Sniper TradingWhen you see it…… strike
  11. 11. Supershort: Failure at Key Levelon Open + Held Bid DropsKMayTicker: CRUSDate: Wednesday, April 17, 2013
  12. 12. Big PictureThe market has been unusually volatile over the lastseveral days. SPY dropped precipitously with thecrash of gold on Monday, but recovered most of itslosses yesterday. However, this morning SPY openedbelow yesterdays trading activity, and spent much ofthe day trending lower. This move puts SPY back intothe 153.7 – 157 price band that occumpied most ofMarch and early April.
  13. 13. 3 month SPY.Big Picture
  14. 14. Today SPY.Big Picture
  15. 15. ADV: 2.78 millionATR: 1.02FS%: 12.34β: 0.65Cirrus Logic, Inc., a fabless semiconductor company,develops signal processing integrated circuits (ICs)for audio and energy markets. A major customer forCirrus is Apple.
  16. 16. Long-Term TechnicalsLong term chart, annotated.
  17. 17. Trade ManagementToday stock snapshot, annotated withexecution and possible execution details.
  18. 18. Trade ReviewMake it Better: Didnt trade with enough size here.Should have been more aggressive when theoriginal 25c buyer dropped, when 19 dropped, andwhen the last 33c buyer dropped.
  19. 19. Trade Idea18.50 and 18 were important levels today. I thinkthere is a good opportunity to make a short tradeif CRUS pulls into 18.50, or if it spends timebelow 18 and turns that support level intoresistance.
  20. 20. Sector Play: Hold Below Pre-market LowGDXVC4/15/13
  21. 21. Big PictureThe SPY trended down from 158.00-155.50
  22. 22. Intraday FundamentalsMining stocks are taking a bit of a hiding followingChinas slowing GDP growth and the sell-off inprecious metals.ATR: 1.16ADV: 17.1MSF%: 8%
  23. 23. At Multi-year lows
  24. 24. 30.00 was a very clean definedlevel in the premarket
  25. 25. Trade IdeaGDX seemed to be the best set up in the premarket soit was the metal stock I wanted to focus on first. Itwas supporting 30.50 a few times in the premarketas GLD was falling. When it finally dropped I tookthe opportunity to begin my short position.
  26. 26. Begin short position as GLD isfalling and GDX drops 50csupport levelAdd whenholds below40cCover halfinto 30.00Add onto short against 10cwhen begins to hold belowpremarket support at30.00Cover some intotrendline breakAdd back onwhenconsolidatesbelow previoussupport at 80cCover most whenbreaks downtrendand approaches thewholeFlat when makesdouble botom andthen new high above40c
  27. 27. Trade ReviewIt never held under 30.00 long enough for me to reallysize up into the position. I also could have easilybeen much bigger in the pullback to 80c. Overallthough good job holding it throughout the move andfeeling comfortable shorting in the premarket
  28. 28. SMB Trading ToolsJoin our SMB community and learn while we share our best tradingideas. Get SMB Scanner, Stocks In Play, SMB Radar and SMB RealTime for $279* (35% off)Reading The TapeGain an edge as an intraday trader by learning this important tradingskill - $850SMB Foundation Remote TrainingFive-week program that will help you develop valuable trading skillsto profit in any market. - $5,400Email us at trading@smbcap.com or give us a call to 646-845-4265for more info.*Offer for first time subscribers and price is valid for the first month.
  29. 29. SMB FoundationDevelop the Skills of a Professional Equities TraderYou will learn: Fundamentals of Trading One Good Trade How to Find Stocks in Play Reading the Tape Risk Management How to Review Your TradingEnter the coupon code SMBATTENDEE to get 5% off andattend 10 SMB Webinars and enter into a raffle to win a freeFoundation ProgramEmail us at trading@smbcap.com for more info.
  30. 30. Contactmbellafiore@smbcap.com@mikebellafiore

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