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Improving system efficiency with fast flexible power - Case Thailand

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Presented in Power-Gen Asia in Bangkok on 3 October, 2012 by Saara Kujala, M.Sc.(Eng.), Manager, Development & Financial Services, Wärtsilä Singapore.

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Improving system efficiency with fast flexible power - Case Thailand

  1. 1. Improving power system efficiency with Fast Flexible Power – Case Thailand Saara Kujala Manager, Development & Financial Services Wartsila Singapore Pte Ltd1 © Wärtsilä 08 October 2012 Improving power system efficiency with Fast Flexible Power – Case Thailand / Saara Kujala
  2. 2. Flexibility in power systems • Power systems need right types of capacities to meet requirements for base load, intermediate load and peak load Daily demand curve • From investment point of view, new base load Demand % 100 plants are easy to justify due to the high committed Regulation operating hours 80 Peak load • Too much base load capacity pushes some base load plants to operate as intermediate load, increasing 60 Intermediate load their cost of generation and reducing system 40 flexibility 20 Base load • Fast Flexible Power Plants (“FFP”) included as part of Thailand’s power system can improve the 0 0 6 12 18 24 utilization of existing base load plants Cost of electricity is variable! Hour • Considerable system level saving potential of 260 Million $ / year identified and quantified2 © Wärtsilä 08 October 2012 Improving power system efficiency with Fast Flexible Power – Case Thailand / Saara Kujala
  3. 3. Installed capacity in Thailand - 2012 • Almost 90% of the installed capacity is designed for *Plant Type Definitions base load operation • Base load capacity Plant GW Plant type* • Slow start-up (>1hour) EGAT Power Plants 15 CCGT 6.9 Base load • Slow ramp-up speed and slow response to Fuel oil / Gas ST 2.2 Base load changing grid conditions Fuel oil ST 0.3 Base load • Optimal efficiency at full load Coal ST 2.2 Base load • Flexible capacity Hydro 3.4 Flexible Diesel / Renewable 0.0 Peaking • Fast start-up time (<10 minutes) IPP 12.2 • Fast ramp-up speed and fast response to grid Bituminous coal 1.3 Base load conditions CCGT 9.2 Base load • High efficiency at all loads for flexible load Fuel oil/ Gas ST 1.6 Base load following SPP 2.2 CCGT 1.4 Base load • Peaking capacity Gas turbine (Simple cycle) 0.1 Peaking • Fast start-up time Coal 0.4 Base load • Fast ramp-up speed Others 0.3 Base load Hydro imports 2.2 Base/ Seasonal • Efficiency less important due to limited Total 31.5 operating hoursSource: EGAT Annual report 2010 EPPO Energy Statistics July 20123 © Wärtsilä 08 October 2012 Improving power system efficiency with Fast Flexible Power – Case Thailand / Saara Kujala
  4. 4. How will Thailand address the daily load following requirement? Daily load curve 2010 • Distinctive load profile with three daily peaks • Annual peak demand growth rate of 3.9% 6GW • 25GW of coal, nuclear, co-generation and renewable energy plants will enter into the system by 2030 providing base load electricity • In addition, 25.4GW of new CCGTs in construction or GW Daily load curve 2012-2030 planning – These plants will be used for load following 50 45 14GW • Sufficient flexible power needs to be maintained in the 40 system to cope with normal demand variations and 2012 35 with variations caused by increasing share of wind and 2020 30 10GW 2030 solar generation 25 7GW 20 15 Sources: EGAT (Daily load curve of May 12, May 22 and May 23, 2010); PDP 2010 Rev 3 0:30 4:30 8:30 12:3016:3020:304 © Wärtsilä 08 October 2012 Improving power system efficiency with Fast Flexible Power – Case Thailand / Saara Kujala
  5. 5. Typical daily load curve by technology and fuel – May 2010 Individual load curves (MW) EGAT Hydro 2 000 GW System load curve (May 12, 2010) 25 0 • Domestic hydro power plants are an important HFO ST 1 000 source of flexibility 0 20 2000 Gas ST • First technology to respond to load changes – 0 primarily used for peak shaving NG CCGT 15 6000 • Other generation capacity, most notably gas-fired 4000 2000 power plants (CCGT, Gas boilers, SPP) also respond 10 0 to load variations 3000 Lignite • Varying operation profile negatively impacts the 0 5 2 000 IPP Hydro heat rate of CCGT plants 0 • System operation and regulation more challenging 0 8 000 with slow responding gas-fired technology 4:30 6:30 0:30 2:30 8:30 14:30 22:30 10:30 12:30 16:30 18:30 20:30 IPP CCGT 4 000 SPP IPP Bituminous IPP CCGT IPP Hydro Lignite Gas CCGT Gas ST HFO 0 • Value of fast and flexible power generation is Hydro 2 000 IPP Coal evident and demonstrated in the daily load curve 0 of domestic hydro power plants Source: EGAT, May 12, 2010 2 000 SPP 05 © Wärtsilä 08 October 2012 Improving power system efficiency with Fast Flexible Power – Case Thailand / Saara Kujala
  6. 6. Load following with gas fired power generation 25,0 May.12 700 600 20,0 500 400 15,0 300 CCGT-Based System: 200 700MW CCGT 10,0 100 0 5,0 0:30 4:30 8:30 12:3016:3020:30 Total generation cost ? 0,0 0:30 3:00 5:30 8:00 10:30 13:00 15:30 18:00 20:30 23:00 700 • A life-cycle cost analysis is conducted for single 700MW power 600 500 plant that operates according to the same load curve as the 400 power system in Thailand as a whole Flexible Power System: 300 • Efficiency and Levelized Electricity Cost (“LEC”) for a single 200 550MW CCGT + plant are assumed to represent those for a larger system 100 150MW Fast Flexible Plant 0 0:30 4:30 8:30 12:3016:3020:306 © Wärtsilä 08 October 2012 Improving power system efficiency with Fast Flexible Power – Case Thailand / Saara Kujala Total generation cost ?
  7. 7. Features of Fast Flexible Power with gas-fired combustionengines • High open cycle efficiency (>45% for the plant) • Fast start and stop capability without EOH maintenance penalty • Multiunit configuration 22xW18V50SG Firm capacity CCGT (2-2-1) Firm capacity7 © Wärtsilä 08 October 2012 Improving power system efficiency with Fast Flexible Power – Case Thailand / Saara Kujala
  8. 8. Life cycle cost evaluation for flexible power plants -Summary CCGT –Based System Flexible Power System 700 FFP - Flexible generation 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 CCGT in load following 300 CCGT - Optimized base 200 200 100 load 100 0 0 0:30 4:30 8:30 12:3016:3020:30 0:30 4:30 8:30 12:3016:3020:30 Plant Type: CCGT –Based system Flexible Power System Plant size: 700MW 550MW + 150MW = 700MW CCGT efficiency 51.6% 53.2% FFP efficiency - 45.3% Total average efficiency (incl. fuel during generation and start-ups), net, LHV 51.6% 52.5% Levelized Electricity Cost (incl. annualized 2.32 Bht/kWh 2.22 Bht/kWh capex, fuel, maintenance, start-up cost) (77.2USD/MWh) (74.7USD/MWh)8 © Wärtsilä 08 October 2012 Improving power system efficiency with Fast Flexible Power – Case Thailand / Saara Kujala
  9. 9. Saving potential for the Thailand Power System (2010) CCGT-Based System Flexible Power System Total saving with Flexible Power System Total gas fired capacity 2010 (GW) 18.3 Annual generation 2010 (TWh) 106.7 CCGT Installed capacity (GW) 18.3 14.4 FFP impacts the existing FFP Installed capacity (GW) - 3.9 plants Calculated efficiency (%) 51.6% 52.5% 0.9%-point Calculated fuel use (Million MMBtu / Year) 706 693 13 Improved efficiency and lower fuel consumption in Flexible Power System (Scenario II) Generation cost (Million $ / Year) CCGT-Based System Flexible Power Total saving with Flexible System Power System Fuel charges (incl. start-up) 5 461 5 363 98 Fixed and variable O&M charges 647 615 32 Capacity charges 2 128 1 995 133 Total cost of electricity 8 326 7 973 263 263 Million USD saving in annual costs with Flexible Power System (Scenario II)9 © Wärtsilä 08 October 2012 Improving power system efficiency with Fast Flexible Power – Case Thailand / Saara Kujala
  10. 10. Conclusions • Planning process for new power plants should be driven by intended plant use (base load, flexible load, peaking). • Planning process for new power capacity should recognize the impacts on the load profiles and utilization of existing plants. • Fast Flexible Power plants can help to improve the performance of the power system. • Fast Flexible Power can be implemented gradually as part of the Power Development Plan to match investment timing with power demand growth.10 © Wärtsilä 08 October 2012 Improving power system efficiency with Fast Flexible Power – Case Thailand / Saara Kujala

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