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SMART Seminar Series: The Long Term Dynamics of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems


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This seminar was conducted on July 2, 2012 by Professor John Preston.

Abstract: There are concerns that Britain’s ageing infrastructure will become increasingly inadequate in the 21st century, that this will impact on future economic and environmental performance and insufficient attention is being paid to this issue.

This presentation outlines some of the work of the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC), a five year research programme that began in January 2011, led by the University of Oxford and including six other Universities and over 40 stakeholders from British Government and Industry.

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SMART Seminar Series: The Long Term Dynamics of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems

  1. 1. Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) Long Term Dynamics of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems: TheEmerging Evidence from Britain.John Preston.Civil, Maritime and Environmental Engineering and Science,University of Southampton.Presentation to SMART Infrastructure Facility, University of Wollongong, 2 July2012.
  2. 2. Outline• Infrastructure in the UK• Background to the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC)• ITRC Fast Track Analysis (FTA) and Progress• Transport FTA• Transport Capacity Demand and Assessment Model (CDAM)• Conclusions
  3. 3. Infrastructure in the UKModest International Performance in terms ofInfrastructure Quality•World Economic Forum 2011 28th (up from 33rd in2010).•World Bank 2010 16th (down from 10th in 2007).Concern that this impacts on economic performance.
  4. 4. Infrastructure in the UK Concerns about under investment
  5. 5. Infrastructure in the UK
  6. 6. Infrastructure UK Performance may be increasing but so are costs.
  7. 7. ITRC Motivation“The stakes are high. Failure to develop andimplement a vision for our infrastructure willmean the UK falls behinds its competitors,loses out both economically and socially, andcould miss its carbon reduction targets”“The Government has identified £200 billionof public and private infrastructure plannedover the next five years, and the requirementis likely to grow beyond that to provide thepower, communications and transport linksto underpin a modern, low carbon economy.”“Britain will not be able to compete in themodern world unless we improve ourinfrastructure.”
  8. 8. ITRC Aim and AmbitionAim: To develop and demonstrate a new generation ofsimulation models and tools to inform the analysis, planning anddesign of national infrastructureAmbition: Enabling a revolutionin the strategic analysis of NIprovision in the UK…whilst at the same time becomingan international landmarkprogramme recognised fornovelty, research excellence andimpact.
  9. 9. Research questions • How can infrastructure capacity and demand be balanced in an uncertain future? • What are the risks of infrastructure failure and how can we adapt National Infrastructure to make it more resilient? • How do infrastructure systems evolve and interact with society and the economy? • What should the UKs strategy be for integrated provision of NI in the long term? 9
  10. 10. ITRC Project Structure
  11. 11. ConsortiumLead Universities Partnership• Cardiff University Over 40 partners in industry and• University of Leeds government:• University of Southampton • Contractors• Newcastle University • Engineering & multi-disciplinary• University of Oxford consultants • Engineering institutions• University of Sussex • Government departments, agencies• University of Cambridge & local authoritiesSupport • Insurers• Engineering and Physical Science • NGOsResearch Council Programme Grant£4.7 million (2011-2015). • Utility companies• University contributions £1 million On-going collaboration and• Industry contributions £1.6 million dissemination arrangements
  12. 12. Key Personnel• Jim Hall (Oxford) – PI and Leader WS2• Nick Eyre (Oxford) – Leader WS1• Seth Bullock (Southampton) – Leader WS3• Stuart Barr (Newcastle) – Leader WS4• Rob Nicholls (Southampton) – Leader WS5• Nick Jenkins (Cardiff) – Energy• Chris Kilsby (Newcastle) – Water• William Powrie (Southampton) – Waste• Cliff Jones (Newcastle) – ICT• John Preston (Southampton) - Transport
  13. 13. International Collaborations• Gary Bowditch, University of Wollongong.• Theresa Brown, Sandia National Laboratories.• Yacov Haimes, University of Virginia.• Stephane Hallegate, World Bank.• Geoffrey Hewings, University of Illinois.• Margot Weijnen, TU Delft.
  14. 14. The ITRC Fast Track AnalysisObjectives:2.Ensure that the ITRC researchprogramme is building upon existingknowledge.3.Refine the scope of the ITRCresearch.4.Pilot and communicate newanalysis concepts.5.Strengthen the relationshipbetween the research team and theconsortium’s partners in governmentand industry.
  15. 15. Overview of the FTA Methodology Figure 1 15
  16. 16. Developing Scenarios: Drivers of Change Scenarios Population HIGHPrimary drivers of change growth•Demographic change•Energy prices LO W LO W•Economic growthSecondary drivers•Climate change HIG H•Carbon emission targets GH Economic•EU directives and National HI growth Energystandards costs•Others LOW Figure 2 16
  17. 17. Developing Scenarios ScenariosLow Growth•Population•GDP growth: 1.6%•Energy costs: DECC high*Medium growth•Population•GDP growth: 2.3%•Energy costs: DECC central* Figure 3High Growth•Population•GDP growth: 3.0%•Energy costs: DECC low*assumptions of fossil fuel price* 17
  18. 18. Transition Strategies: Dimensions StrategiesCapacity- High investment in newintensive capacity to keep up with demand and maintain good security of supply (except transport)Decentralisation Reorientation to more distributed systems involving a combination of supply and demand-side measuresCapacity- Emphasis on demandconstrained management measures, low infrastructure investment Figure 5 18
  19. 19. Progress: Systems modelling framework
  20. 20. Progress: Analysis of risks of infrastructure failureFirst steps: spatial integrationof natural hazards andinfrastructure exposure.
  21. 21. ITRC risk analysis framework NI network and NI risk extreme events NI vulnerability evaluation Resilience evaluation optionsInterdependent networks Economic loss1 2 Interdependent 1 2 3 4 NI propagation NI 1 2 1 2 3 Output loss Interdependent4 3 Cost 4 loss 4 3 Net BenefitExtreme climate hazard Performance Cost Event Time Economic loss Frequency Probability Load Service level Uncertain & temporal Resource Event Failure management Time 21
  22. 22. Progress: National Infrastructure Database ITRC ITRC ITRC ITRC ITRC ITRC ITRC Admin Population Economics Water Energy Transport Waste ITRC spatial database comprises of 160+ layers organised into separate databases by sector but with single interface via ITRC scripts. ITRC Scripts
  23. 23. Transport FTA - Key Issues• Vehicle and fuel technology (EU legislation) and its impact on energy requirements• Taxation and charging (tax on electric vehicles?)• Infrastructure investment• ITS (Intelligent Transport Systems) / speed limits• Personal / corporate behaviour• Main scenario drivers assumed: GDP, fuel price, population
  24. 24. Transport Modal Split and Vehicle Split StrategiesSource: DECC, 2011.Also:
  25. 25. Transport FTA Modelling - Methodology• Unconstrained demand based on elasticity models• Supply side constraints reduce demand (Excel, Matlab)• Three demand growth scenarios (low, medium, high) 8,000 7,000 road rail 6,000 air total Constrained billion passenger km 5,000 demand, 4,000 medium 3,000 growth 2,000 1,000 0 2008 2023 2038 2053 2068 2083 2098
  26. 26. FTA Vehicle Kms per Lane Km Capacity utilisation of trunk road network 25 ImpliesMillion vehicle km per lane km 20 Constrained high growth Constrained medium growth base 15 provision of Constrained low growth 388 vehicles per 10 lane per hour 5 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
  27. 27. FTA Impact of Electric Vehicles (EVs)
  28. 28. Rail demand per track km 120train km / track km (thousand kms / track km) high growth (constrained) Base year provision is medium growth (constrained) around 1.77 80 trains per hour low growth (constrained) per track km. 40 Crossrail HS2 HS2+ 0 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078
  29. 29. FTA Key Results• Low growth scenarios seem most consistent with previous trends.• Capacity Intensive: High investment and fast uptake of electric vehicles – 23.4% more car/van kms in 2050 compared to the reference case – 18.9% fewer emissions from cars and vans – 25.2% fewer emissions from HGVs• Decentralisation: Medium investment/medium uptake of EVs, national congestion charging – 5% more car/van vehicle kms – 10.7% lower CO2 emissions• Capacity constrained: Low investment, low uptake of EVs, national congestion charging – 3% fewer car/van kms – 7.3% lower CO2 emissions for car/vans – 2.4% lower CO2 emissions for HGVs
  30. 30. FTA Key Results
  31. 31. Transport CDAM: Initial Structure
  32. 32. Transport Models Gap AnalysisKey areas identified:•Temporal scale – ITRC model extends to 2100•Spatial scale – Transport CDAM zonal system coarserthan NTM•Strategic interaction between passengers and freight•Strategic multimodal treatment of demand andcapacity•Interaction with other economic sectors•Explicit integration of national gateway nodes
  33. 33. Transport Models Gap Analysis• Transport CDAM is intended to complement rather than compete with existing models.• Limited project resources and short(ish) timescale – use existing data wherever possible.• Spatial resolution at a level consistent with other ITRC CDAMs (Energy, Water, Solid Waste, Wastewater). Strategic modelling with a focus on flows within and between Local Authorities (144 zones).
  34. 34. Transport CDAM Current Status• Development of model based on open source data from range of sources: – DfT AADF data – DfT road statistics – ATOC rail timetable data – ORR station usage data – CAA air statistics – DfT maritime statistics
  35. 35. Transport CDAM: Current Status
  36. 36. Transport CDAM: Current Status• Standalone road model developed.• Models for air, rail and sea under development.• Aim is for an integrated multi-modal model that is capable of rapid simulations.
  37. 37. Transport CDAM: Current Status• Extensive data collection and processing undertaken• Initial road link model now working• Other model elements being developed• Three MSc students working on model
  38. 38. Transport CDAM: Added Value• Strategic analysis of scenarios, strategies and risks up to 2100.• Identification of key interdependencies both within the transport sector (local & long distance, passenger & freight, air, rail, road & sea) and between infrastructure sectors (especially energy and ICT).• Identification of key interdependencies with demographic and economic factors.• Identification of key pinch points.
  39. 39. Conclusions• UK faces an infrastructure challenge over the next century.• Current approach on a sector by sector basis.• A systematic multi-sectoral approach is needed.• This needs simulation tools that can treat infrastructure as a complex adaptive system (of systems).• ITRC aims to develop such tools for the UK, whilst building on international experience.