Wuppertal Institute - Scenarios and Strategies for Coal Production Transition in Indonesia

Scenarios of Coal Production
in Indonesia
20 August 2026
Timon Wehnert, Maximilian Blum,
Jenny Kurwan
Wuppertal Institute

About IKI JET
Objective: Support and accelerate Just Energy Transition JET
away from coal to renewable energy and other sustainable
economic activities in the Global South
Indonesia (East Kalimantan, South Sumatra)
Colombia (La Guajira, El Cesar)
Chile (Coronel, Mejillones)
Mongolia (Nalaikh district)
South Africa (Mpumalanga)
Thailand (Lampang)
Viet Nam (Quang Ninh)
Lampang

GERMANY
Berlin
Stuttgart
Hamburg
Frankfurt
Cologne
Leipzig
Munich
Wuppertal
The Wuppertal Institute
• Founded in 1991
• Think tank dedicated to applied research
and sustainability
• 350 staff members
• Transition Research:
from problem assessment to
real world experiments

Starting point for todays event
If coal regions want to
plan for their economic
future....
... they need to have
some estimate how coal
mining will develop
???
???
???
Coal production Indonesia 2000 - 2025

A look back - historical developments in the Ruhr area, Germany

Jobs in the German Ruhr coal mining area
The Ruhr has been Germanys industrial power house,
its biggest coal mining area, heart of the coal and steel
industry for many decades
1st & 2nd World War
+ Great Depression
1860 1957 2018

The Ruhr has been Germanys industrial power house,
its biggest coal mining area, heart of the coal and steel
industry for many decades
1st & 2nd World War
+ Great Depression
?
How did coal mining develop after 1957?
This was the time of the German
„Wirtschaftswunder“ - with highest growth
rate in GDP
1860 1957 2018

1st & 2nd World War
+ Great Depression
When
international coal
became more
competitive,
Germany started
mining on stack
The last underground coal mine in
Germany was closed in 2018
Coal mining declined after 1957 - for purely economic reasons
• global markets (cheaper competition) and
• new energy technologies /sources (oil and gas)
• even high investments in mechanisation did not change the
trend
1860 1957 2018

Coal mining declined after 1957 - for purely economic reasons
• global markets (cheaper competition) and
• new energy technologies /sources (oil and gas)
• even high investments in mechanisation did not change the
trend
Biggest mistakes:
• ignorance and hope that German coal would come
back
• massive subsidies
• shifting too late to alternative economies
The first University
was established in
the Ruhr area: 1964
1860 1957 2018

Transforming the Ruhr area, Germany

Scenarios of Coal Production in Indonesia
published on
Just Energy Transition in Coal
Regions Knowledge Hub

WI Scenarios for Coal Production in Indonesia
We have developed the scenarios
in a way, so that we think that that
the future coal production is likely
in this corridor between
High Scenario: estimated upper limit
of coal production in Indonesia
Low Scenario: estimated lower limit
of coal production in Indonesia

Regional Level Assessment
But how would production scenarios
for the different coal regions look like?

Contact
Timon Wehnert
timon.wehnert@wupperinst.org
Jenny Kurwan
jenny.kurwan@wupperinst.org
Maximilian Blum
maximilian.blum@wupperinst.org

Objective Support and accelerate just energy transitions (JET) away from coal to renewable energy and other
sustainable economic activities in the Global South
Implementing
organisations
• Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
• Climate Action Network International (CAN International)
• International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)
• International Labour Organisation (ILO)
• Solidarity Center
• Union Abroad - APHEDA
• Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy
Project duration December 2022 – January 2027
About IKI JET

Any person who believes they may be harmed by an IKI project or who wishes to report corruption or the
misuse of funds can lodge a complaint to the IKI Independent Complaint Mechanism at
IKI-complaints@z-u-g.org. The IKI Complaint Mechanism has a panel of independent experts who will
investigate the complaint. In the course of the investigation, we will consult with the complainant so as to
avoid unnecessary risks for the complainant.
More information can be found at:
https://www.international-climate-initiative.com/en/about-iki/values-responsibility/independent-
complaint-mechanism/

Wuppertal Institute - Scenarios and Strategies for Coal Production Transition in Indonesia

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