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SE Parteien und politische Konfliktlinien in Westeuropa: Kontinuität und Wandel
                                                              Referat: Daniel Winter




Wechselhaftigkeit im Wahlverhalten

Niedergang der Parteien

Electoral Volatility and Party Declines in Western Democracies
Andrew J. Drummond
Analyse von Rose und Urwin

 1945-1970: Untersuchung westlicher Parteisysteme


 These: frozen cleavages
   – Cleaveges bleiben bestehen


 1970-1995: Drummond verwendet die Methode für diesen Zeitraum
4 Indikatoren zur Analyse der
Stabilität von Parteien



1. Indikator: Wählervolatilität (elecoral volatility)
WAS MEINT
Wählervolatilität?

= Wanderung der Stimmen zwischen aufeinanderfolgenden Wahlen
4 Indikatoren zur Analyse der
Stabilität von Parteien


1. Indikator: Wählervolatilität (elecoral volatility)

   – wird folgendermaßen ermittelt:

     Berechnung eines jährlichen Koeffizienten (im Vergleich zu den nicht
     alljährlichen Wahlergebnissen).
4 Indikatoren zur Analyse der
Stabilität von Parteien


2. Indikator: Elastizität der Parteienuntersützung

   – wird folgendermaßen ermittelt:

     Prozentuelle Differenz zum besten und schlechtesten Wahlergebnis einer
     Partei.
4 Indikatoren zur Analyse der
Stabilität von Parteien


3. Indikator: Variabilität (variability) der Parteienuntersützung
WAS MEINT
Variabilität?

= Streuung der Parteiunterstützung im langfristigen Fokus
4 Indikatoren zur Analyse der
Stabilität von Parteien


3. Indikator: Variabilität (variability) der Parteienuntersützung

   – wird folgendermaßen ermittelt:

     „Wo befindet sich das Pendel meistens?“




   = langjähriger Durchschnitt der Parteienunterstützung
4 Indikatoren zur Analyse der
Stabilität von Parteien


4. Indikator: Verlauf von Gewinnen und Verlusten

   – wird folgendermaßen ermittelt:

     Verlaufen Gewinne und Verluste konstant oder sprunghaft?
Analyse 1970-1995

 Drummond wendet die 4 Indikatoren an, um festzustellen:


     Sind Cleavages wirklich frozen?


     Sind Parteien und das Parteisystem immer noch stabil?
      (wie Rose und Urwin feststellten)
Volatilität 1970-1995
in den einzelnen Staaten




Balken über der x-Achse: stärkere Volatilität
Balken unter der x-Achse: schwächere Volatilität
634
       Elastizität 1970-1995




                                                                                                                                                                                                 634
                                                    Table 1: Summary of Stability Measures by Region and Period
                                                    Table 1: Summary of Stability Measures by Region and Period
                                  Anglo-American nations                     Scandinavian nations                Continental nations                       All regions

                                1945–70 1970–95 nations
                                 Anglo-American Change 1945–70 1970–95 nations
                                                              Scandinavian  Change                          1945–70 1970–95 Change 1945–70 All regions Change
                                                                                                                  Continental nations             1970–95
       Stability measure           (N)     (N)       (sig)  (N)      (N)
                               1945–70 1970–95 Change 1945–70 1970–95 Change (sig)                             (N)        (N)       (sig)    (N)     (N)
                                                                                                            1945–70 1970–95 Change 1945–70 1970–95 Change   (sig)
      Stability measure
       Median volatility          (N)
                                 0.20%    (N)
                                         0.26%      (sig)
                                                  +0.06%    (N)
                                                           0.14%     (N)
                                                                    0.21%    (sig)
                                                                           +0.07%                              (N)
                                                                                                             0.15%         (N)
                                                                                                                        0.23%        (sig)
                                                                                                                                  +0.08%      (N)
                                                                                                                                           0.15%      (N)
                                                                                                                                                   0.22%     (sig)
                                                                                                                                                          +0.07%
      Median volatility          (21)
                                0.20%         (22)
                                             0.26%       (0.827)
                                                        +0.06%       (30)
                                                                     0.14%         (36)
                                                                                   0.21%      (0.246)
                                                                                              +0.07%         (41)
                                                                                                             0.15%      (44)
                                                                                                                        0.23% (0.501)
                                                                                                                                   +0.08% (92)
                                                                                                                                            0.15%  (102)
                                                                                                                                                    0.22% (0.216)
                                                                                                                                                           +0.07%
       Median elasticity         8.4%
                                (21)          12.4%
                                             (22)        +4.0%
                                                        (0.827)      5.3%
                                                                     (30)          8.8%
                                                                                   (36)       +3.5%***
                                                                                              (0.246)        7.8%
                                                                                                             (41)       6.6%
                                                                                                                         (44)     -1.2%
                                                                                                                                   (0.501) 7.0%
                                                                                                                                            (92)   8.4%
                                                                                                                                                    (102) +1.4%*
                                                                                                                                                           (0.216)
      Median elasticity          (21)
                                8.4%          (22)
                                             12.4%       (0.109)
                                                        +4.0%        (30)
                                                                     5.3%          (36)
                                                                                   8.8%       (0.001)
                                                                                              +3.5%***       (41)
                                                                                                             7.8%       (44)
                                                                                                                         6.6%     (0.689)
                                                                                                                                   -1.2%   (92)
                                                                                                                                            7.0%   (102)
                                                                                                                                                    8.4%  (0.042)
                                                                                                                                                           +1.4%*
       Median variability        3.1%
                                (21)          4.0%
                                             (22)        +0.9%
                                                        (0.109)      2.0%
                                                                     (30)          3.3%
                                                                                   (36)       +1.3%***
                                                                                              (0.001)        2.8%
                                                                                                             (41)       2.6%
                                                                                                                         (44)     -0.2%
                                                                                                                                   (0.689) 2.6%
                                                                                                                                            (92)   3.2%
                                                                                                                                                    (102) +0.6%*
                                                                                                                                                           (0.042)
      Median variability         (21)
                                3.1%          (22)
                                             4.0%        (0.177)
                                                        +0.9%        (30)
                                                                     2.0%          (36)
                                                                                   3.3%       (0.001)
                                                                                              +1.3%***       (41)
                                                                                                             2.8%       (44)
                                                                                                                         2.6%     (0.940)
                                                                                                                                   -0.2%   (92)
                                                                                                                                            2.6%   (102)
                                                                                                                                                    3.2%  (0.021)
                                                                                                                                                           +0.6%*




                                                                                                                                                                                              A N D R E W J. D RU M M O N D
                                (21)         (22)       (0.177)       (30)         (36)       (0.001)        (41)         (44)       (0.940)       (92)         (102)      (0.021)




                                                                                                                                                                                                  A N D R E W J. D RU M M O N D
 Note: Data used in this piece were taken from Mackie and Rose (1991), from the online Election Results Archive hosted by the Center for Democratic Performance at the State University of
 New York – Binghamton and from Rose and Urwin (1970). Two-tailed significance levels for differences between medians calculated using Wilcoxan Mann-Whitney U test: * = significant at
Note: 0.05, ** = significant at pwere taken from Mackie and Rose (1991), from the online Election Results Archive hosted by the Center for Democratic Performance at the State University of
 p     Data used in this piece     0.01, *** = significant at p 0.001.
New York – Binghamton and from Rose and Urwin (1970). Two-tailed significance levels for differences between medians calculated using Wilcoxan Mann-Whitney U test: * = significant at
p 0.05, ** = significant at p 0.01, *** = significant at p 0.001.
34
       Variabilität 1970-1995




                                                                                                                                                                                                 634
                                                 Table 1: Summary of Stability Measures by Region and Period

                                 Anglo-American nations                  Scandinavian nations                   Continental nations                        All regions
                                                 Table 1: Summary of Stability Measures by Region and Period
                               1945–70 1970–95 Change 1945–70 1970–95 Change 1945–70 1970–95 Change 1945–70 1970–95 Change
      Stability measure            (N)        (N)        (sig)         (N)         (N)           (sig)         (N)         (N)         (sig)       (N)         (N)         (sig)
                                  Anglo-American nations                 Scandinavian nations                     Continental nations                     All regions
      Median volatility         0.20%       0.26%      +0.06%        0.14%       0.21%        +0.07%        0.15%        0.23%       +0.08%      0.15%       0.22%       +0.07%
                              1945–70 1970–95 Change 1945–70 1970–95 (0.246)
                                (21)        (22)       (0.827)       (30)        (36)          Change 1945–70 1970–95 (0.501)
                                                                                                             (41)        (44)        Change 1945–70 1970–95 (0.216)
                                                                                                                                                 (92)        (102)       Change
      Stability elasticity
      Median measure              (N)
                                8.4%          (N)
                                            12.4%        (sig)
                                                      +4.0%            (N)
                                                                     5.3%          (N)
                                                                                 8.8%            (sig)
                                                                                              +3.5%***         (N)
                                                                                                             7.8%          (N)
                                                                                                                         6.6%          (sig)
                                                                                                                                     -1.2%          (N)
                                                                                                                                                 7.0%           (N)
                                                                                                                                                             8.4%           (sig)
                                                                                                                                                                        +1.4%*
      Median volatility         (21)
                                0.20%       (22)
                                            0.26%     (0.109)
                                                      +0.06%         (30)
                                                                     0.14%       (36)
                                                                                 0.21%        (0.001)
                                                                                              +0.07%         (41)
                                                                                                             0.15%       (44)
                                                                                                                         0.23% (0.689)+0.08%     (92)
                                                                                                                                                 0.15%       (102)
                                                                                                                                                             0.22% (0.042)
                                                                                                                                                                         +0.07%
      Median variability (21)   3.1%        4.0%
                                            (22)      +0.9%
                                                      (0.827)        2.0%
                                                                     (30)        3.3%
                                                                                 (36)         +1.3%***
                                                                                              (0.246)        2.8%
                                                                                                             (41)        2.6%
                                                                                                                         (44)        -0.2%
                                                                                                                                     (0.501)     2.6%
                                                                                                                                                  (92)       3.2%
                                                                                                                                                             (102)      +0.6%*
                                                                                                                                                                         (0.216)
      Median elasticity         (21)
                                8.4%        (22)
                                            12.4%     (0.177)
                                                      +4.0%          (30)
                                                                     5.3%        (36)
                                                                                 8.8%         (0.001)
                                                                                              +3.5%***       (41)
                                                                                                             7.8%        (44)
                                                                                                                         6.6%        (0.940)
                                                                                                                                     -1.2%       (92)
                                                                                                                                                  7.0%       (102)
                                                                                                                                                             8.4%       (0.021)
                                                                                                                                                                         +1.4%*




                                                                                                                                                                                            A N D R E W N DD RU MJ. D RU M M O N D
                                (21)        (22)      (0.109)        (30)        (36)         (0.001)        (41)        (44)        (0.689)      (92)       (102)       (0.042)
Note: Data used in this piece were taken from Mackie and Rose (1991), from the online Election Results Archive hosted by the Center for Democratic Performance at the State University of
New York – Binghamton and from Rose and Urwin (1970).+0.9%
      Median variability        3.1%        4.0%                     2.0%        3.3%         +1.3%***       2.8%        2.6%        -0.2%
                                                        Two-tailed significance levels for differences between medians calculated using Wilcoxan Mann-Whitney U test: * +0.6%*
                                                                                                                                                  2.6%       3.2%         = significant at
p 0.05, ** = significant at p (21) *** = significant at p 0.001. (30)
                                 0.01,      (22)      (0.177)                    (36)         (0.001)        (41)        (44)        (0.940)      (92)       (102)       (0.021)




                                                                                                                                                                                                      A J. R E W M O N D
Note: Data used in this piece were taken from Mackie and Rose (1991), from the online Election Results Archive hosted by the Center for Democratic Performance at the State University of
New York – Binghamton and from Rose and Urwin (1970). Two-tailed significance levels for differences between medians calculated using Wilcoxan Mann-Whitney U test: * = significant at
p 0.05, ** = significant at p 0.01, *** = significant at p 0.001.
Analyse 1970-1995

        Worin liegt der Grund für die zunehmende Instabilität?


                   Im Aufkommen der New Policy parties?

                                           Table 3: Summary of Stability Measures by Party Age and Time Period

                                      Old parties                             Interwar parties                             New parties                      New + NP parties

      Stability          1945–70        1970–95       Change        1945–70       1970–95        Change        1945–70        1970–95       Change        1970–95        Change
      measure              (N)            (N)          (sig)          (N)           (N)           (sig)          (N)            (N)          (sig)          (N)           (sig)

      Median               0.19%         0.15%        -0.04%         0.19%         0.27%         +0.08%*         0.18%         0.23%        +0.05%          0.25          +0.07%
       volatility          (39)          (39)         (0.901)        (30)          (23)          (0.031)         (23)          (23)         (0.717)         (40)         (0.847)
      Median               8.0%          10.2%        +2.2%          5.8%          11.5%         +5.7%**         7.0%          7.7%         +0.7%           6.7%         -0.3%
       elasticity          (39)          (39)         (0.197)        (30)          (23)          (0.007)         (23)          (23)         (0.460)         (40)         (0.830)
      Median               2.7%          3.5%         +0.8%          2.0%          3.5%          +1.5%**         2.6%          2.7%         +0.1%           2.7          +0.1%
       variability         (39)          (39)         (0.330)        (30)          (23)          (0.002)         (23)          (23)         (0.538)         (40)         (0.679)

Note: Data used in this piece were taken from Mackie and Rose (1991), from the online Election Results Archive hosted by the Center for Democratic Performance at the State University o
New York – Binghamton and from Rose and Urwin (1970). Two-tailed significance levels for differences between medians calculated using Wilcoxan Mann-Whitney U test. * = significant a
p 0.05, ** = significant at p 0.01, *** = significant at p 0.001. Party Age codes: Old = pre-1914; Interwar = 1914–1939; New = after 1939; NP = after 1970 and party platform suggests some
focus on new politics.
Analyse 1970-1995

        Worin liegt der Grund für die zunehmende Instabilität?


                   JA und NEIN: das gesamte Parteisystem ist instabiler!

                      alte Parteien Table 3: Summary of als NP parties und interwar parties Period
                                    weniger betroffen Stability Measures by Party Age and Time

                                      Old parties                             Interwar parties                             New parties                      New + NP parties

      Stability          1945–70        1970–95       Change        1945–70       1970–95        Change        1945–70        1970–95       Change        1970–95        Change
      measure              (N)            (N)          (sig)          (N)           (N)           (sig)          (N)            (N)          (sig)          (N)           (sig)

      Median               0.19%         0.15%        -0.04%         0.19%         0.27%         +0.08%*         0.18%         0.23%        +0.05%          0.25          +0.07%
       volatility          (39)          (39)         (0.901)        (30)          (23)          (0.031)         (23)          (23)         (0.717)         (40)         (0.847)
      Median               8.0%          10.2%        +2.2%          5.8%          11.5%         +5.7%**         7.0%          7.7%         +0.7%           6.7%         -0.3%
       elasticity          (39)          (39)         (0.197)        (30)          (23)          (0.007)         (23)          (23)         (0.460)         (40)         (0.830)
      Median               2.7%          3.5%         +0.8%          2.0%          3.5%          +1.5%**         2.6%          2.7%         +0.1%           2.7          +0.1%
       variability         (39)          (39)         (0.330)        (30)          (23)          (0.002)         (23)          (23)         (0.538)         (40)         (0.679)

Note: Data used in this piece were taken from Mackie and Rose (1991), from the online Election Results Archive hosted by the Center for Democratic Performance at the State University o
New York – Binghamton and from Rose and Urwin (1970). Two-tailed significance levels for differences between medians calculated using Wilcoxan Mann-Whitney U test. * = significant a
p 0.05, ** = significant at p 0.01, *** = significant at p 0.001. Party Age codes: Old = pre-1914; Interwar = 1914–1939; New = after 1939; NP = after 1970 and party platform suggests some
focus on new politics.
Analyse 1970-1995




    Auswirkungen:


    +   NP policy parties profitieren von ansteigender Volatilität (7 von 11)


    -   Interwar Parties als große Verlierer (11 von 13)
Conclusio

 Sind Cleavages immer noch frozen?


     1970: Old parties waren die stabilsten Parteien.

     1995:
      a) Die Tatsache, dass sich die Parteien wenig änderten, sie aber
      immer noch die dominante Rolle spielen, könnte bedeuten:
               cleavages are frozen

      b) IW Parties wurden genauso instabil wie NP Parties. New Parties
      beginnen, Old Parties Konkurrenz zu machen
               cleavages are no longer frozen
Conclusio

 Sind Cleavages immer noch frozen?


      Alte Parteien mögen zwar weiterhin dominant sein,


      aber: der Aufstieg der NP Parties,
            der starke Niedergang der Interwar Parties und
            die Stabilisierung der New Parties

      zeigen (laut Drummond), dass es seit 1970 keine starren
      Cleavages mehr gibt.
KRITIK

 Unterscheidung der Parteien nach zeitlicher Entstehung


      Bsp: Norwegen: Christian People‘s = Interwar
           Denmark: Conservatives = Old
           Austria: People‘s = New

      Warum keine Unterscheidung nach inhaltlichen Gesichtspunkten?
Volatilität

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Volatilität

  • 1. SE Parteien und politische Konfliktlinien in Westeuropa: Kontinuität und Wandel Referat: Daniel Winter Wechselhaftigkeit im Wahlverhalten Niedergang der Parteien Electoral Volatility and Party Declines in Western Democracies Andrew J. Drummond
  • 2. Analyse von Rose und Urwin  1945-1970: Untersuchung westlicher Parteisysteme  These: frozen cleavages – Cleaveges bleiben bestehen  1970-1995: Drummond verwendet die Methode für diesen Zeitraum
  • 3. 4 Indikatoren zur Analyse der Stabilität von Parteien 1. Indikator: Wählervolatilität (elecoral volatility)
  • 4. WAS MEINT Wählervolatilität? = Wanderung der Stimmen zwischen aufeinanderfolgenden Wahlen
  • 5. 4 Indikatoren zur Analyse der Stabilität von Parteien 1. Indikator: Wählervolatilität (elecoral volatility) – wird folgendermaßen ermittelt: Berechnung eines jährlichen Koeffizienten (im Vergleich zu den nicht alljährlichen Wahlergebnissen).
  • 6. 4 Indikatoren zur Analyse der Stabilität von Parteien 2. Indikator: Elastizität der Parteienuntersützung – wird folgendermaßen ermittelt: Prozentuelle Differenz zum besten und schlechtesten Wahlergebnis einer Partei.
  • 7. 4 Indikatoren zur Analyse der Stabilität von Parteien 3. Indikator: Variabilität (variability) der Parteienuntersützung
  • 8. WAS MEINT Variabilität? = Streuung der Parteiunterstützung im langfristigen Fokus
  • 9. 4 Indikatoren zur Analyse der Stabilität von Parteien 3. Indikator: Variabilität (variability) der Parteienuntersützung – wird folgendermaßen ermittelt: „Wo befindet sich das Pendel meistens?“ = langjähriger Durchschnitt der Parteienunterstützung
  • 10. 4 Indikatoren zur Analyse der Stabilität von Parteien 4. Indikator: Verlauf von Gewinnen und Verlusten – wird folgendermaßen ermittelt: Verlaufen Gewinne und Verluste konstant oder sprunghaft?
  • 11. Analyse 1970-1995  Drummond wendet die 4 Indikatoren an, um festzustellen:  Sind Cleavages wirklich frozen?  Sind Parteien und das Parteisystem immer noch stabil? (wie Rose und Urwin feststellten)
  • 12. Volatilität 1970-1995 in den einzelnen Staaten Balken über der x-Achse: stärkere Volatilität Balken unter der x-Achse: schwächere Volatilität
  • 13. 634 Elastizität 1970-1995 634 Table 1: Summary of Stability Measures by Region and Period Table 1: Summary of Stability Measures by Region and Period Anglo-American nations Scandinavian nations Continental nations All regions 1945–70 1970–95 nations Anglo-American Change 1945–70 1970–95 nations Scandinavian Change 1945–70 1970–95 Change 1945–70 All regions Change Continental nations 1970–95 Stability measure (N) (N) (sig) (N) (N) 1945–70 1970–95 Change 1945–70 1970–95 Change (sig) (N) (N) (sig) (N) (N) 1945–70 1970–95 Change 1945–70 1970–95 Change (sig) Stability measure Median volatility (N) 0.20% (N) 0.26% (sig) +0.06% (N) 0.14% (N) 0.21% (sig) +0.07% (N) 0.15% (N) 0.23% (sig) +0.08% (N) 0.15% (N) 0.22% (sig) +0.07% Median volatility (21) 0.20% (22) 0.26% (0.827) +0.06% (30) 0.14% (36) 0.21% (0.246) +0.07% (41) 0.15% (44) 0.23% (0.501) +0.08% (92) 0.15% (102) 0.22% (0.216) +0.07% Median elasticity 8.4% (21) 12.4% (22) +4.0% (0.827) 5.3% (30) 8.8% (36) +3.5%*** (0.246) 7.8% (41) 6.6% (44) -1.2% (0.501) 7.0% (92) 8.4% (102) +1.4%* (0.216) Median elasticity (21) 8.4% (22) 12.4% (0.109) +4.0% (30) 5.3% (36) 8.8% (0.001) +3.5%*** (41) 7.8% (44) 6.6% (0.689) -1.2% (92) 7.0% (102) 8.4% (0.042) +1.4%* Median variability 3.1% (21) 4.0% (22) +0.9% (0.109) 2.0% (30) 3.3% (36) +1.3%*** (0.001) 2.8% (41) 2.6% (44) -0.2% (0.689) 2.6% (92) 3.2% (102) +0.6%* (0.042) Median variability (21) 3.1% (22) 4.0% (0.177) +0.9% (30) 2.0% (36) 3.3% (0.001) +1.3%*** (41) 2.8% (44) 2.6% (0.940) -0.2% (92) 2.6% (102) 3.2% (0.021) +0.6%* A N D R E W J. D RU M M O N D (21) (22) (0.177) (30) (36) (0.001) (41) (44) (0.940) (92) (102) (0.021) A N D R E W J. D RU M M O N D Note: Data used in this piece were taken from Mackie and Rose (1991), from the online Election Results Archive hosted by the Center for Democratic Performance at the State University of New York – Binghamton and from Rose and Urwin (1970). Two-tailed significance levels for differences between medians calculated using Wilcoxan Mann-Whitney U test: * = significant at Note: 0.05, ** = significant at pwere taken from Mackie and Rose (1991), from the online Election Results Archive hosted by the Center for Democratic Performance at the State University of p Data used in this piece 0.01, *** = significant at p 0.001. New York – Binghamton and from Rose and Urwin (1970). Two-tailed significance levels for differences between medians calculated using Wilcoxan Mann-Whitney U test: * = significant at p 0.05, ** = significant at p 0.01, *** = significant at p 0.001.
  • 14. 34 Variabilität 1970-1995 634 Table 1: Summary of Stability Measures by Region and Period Anglo-American nations Scandinavian nations Continental nations All regions Table 1: Summary of Stability Measures by Region and Period 1945–70 1970–95 Change 1945–70 1970–95 Change 1945–70 1970–95 Change 1945–70 1970–95 Change Stability measure (N) (N) (sig) (N) (N) (sig) (N) (N) (sig) (N) (N) (sig) Anglo-American nations Scandinavian nations Continental nations All regions Median volatility 0.20% 0.26% +0.06% 0.14% 0.21% +0.07% 0.15% 0.23% +0.08% 0.15% 0.22% +0.07% 1945–70 1970–95 Change 1945–70 1970–95 (0.246) (21) (22) (0.827) (30) (36) Change 1945–70 1970–95 (0.501) (41) (44) Change 1945–70 1970–95 (0.216) (92) (102) Change Stability elasticity Median measure (N) 8.4% (N) 12.4% (sig) +4.0% (N) 5.3% (N) 8.8% (sig) +3.5%*** (N) 7.8% (N) 6.6% (sig) -1.2% (N) 7.0% (N) 8.4% (sig) +1.4%* Median volatility (21) 0.20% (22) 0.26% (0.109) +0.06% (30) 0.14% (36) 0.21% (0.001) +0.07% (41) 0.15% (44) 0.23% (0.689)+0.08% (92) 0.15% (102) 0.22% (0.042) +0.07% Median variability (21) 3.1% 4.0% (22) +0.9% (0.827) 2.0% (30) 3.3% (36) +1.3%*** (0.246) 2.8% (41) 2.6% (44) -0.2% (0.501) 2.6% (92) 3.2% (102) +0.6%* (0.216) Median elasticity (21) 8.4% (22) 12.4% (0.177) +4.0% (30) 5.3% (36) 8.8% (0.001) +3.5%*** (41) 7.8% (44) 6.6% (0.940) -1.2% (92) 7.0% (102) 8.4% (0.021) +1.4%* A N D R E W N DD RU MJ. D RU M M O N D (21) (22) (0.109) (30) (36) (0.001) (41) (44) (0.689) (92) (102) (0.042) Note: Data used in this piece were taken from Mackie and Rose (1991), from the online Election Results Archive hosted by the Center for Democratic Performance at the State University of New York – Binghamton and from Rose and Urwin (1970).+0.9% Median variability 3.1% 4.0% 2.0% 3.3% +1.3%*** 2.8% 2.6% -0.2% Two-tailed significance levels for differences between medians calculated using Wilcoxan Mann-Whitney U test: * +0.6%* 2.6% 3.2% = significant at p 0.05, ** = significant at p (21) *** = significant at p 0.001. (30) 0.01, (22) (0.177) (36) (0.001) (41) (44) (0.940) (92) (102) (0.021) A J. R E W M O N D Note: Data used in this piece were taken from Mackie and Rose (1991), from the online Election Results Archive hosted by the Center for Democratic Performance at the State University of New York – Binghamton and from Rose and Urwin (1970). Two-tailed significance levels for differences between medians calculated using Wilcoxan Mann-Whitney U test: * = significant at p 0.05, ** = significant at p 0.01, *** = significant at p 0.001.
  • 15. Analyse 1970-1995  Worin liegt der Grund für die zunehmende Instabilität?  Im Aufkommen der New Policy parties? Table 3: Summary of Stability Measures by Party Age and Time Period Old parties Interwar parties New parties New + NP parties Stability 1945–70 1970–95 Change 1945–70 1970–95 Change 1945–70 1970–95 Change 1970–95 Change measure (N) (N) (sig) (N) (N) (sig) (N) (N) (sig) (N) (sig) Median 0.19% 0.15% -0.04% 0.19% 0.27% +0.08%* 0.18% 0.23% +0.05% 0.25 +0.07% volatility (39) (39) (0.901) (30) (23) (0.031) (23) (23) (0.717) (40) (0.847) Median 8.0% 10.2% +2.2% 5.8% 11.5% +5.7%** 7.0% 7.7% +0.7% 6.7% -0.3% elasticity (39) (39) (0.197) (30) (23) (0.007) (23) (23) (0.460) (40) (0.830) Median 2.7% 3.5% +0.8% 2.0% 3.5% +1.5%** 2.6% 2.7% +0.1% 2.7 +0.1% variability (39) (39) (0.330) (30) (23) (0.002) (23) (23) (0.538) (40) (0.679) Note: Data used in this piece were taken from Mackie and Rose (1991), from the online Election Results Archive hosted by the Center for Democratic Performance at the State University o New York – Binghamton and from Rose and Urwin (1970). Two-tailed significance levels for differences between medians calculated using Wilcoxan Mann-Whitney U test. * = significant a p 0.05, ** = significant at p 0.01, *** = significant at p 0.001. Party Age codes: Old = pre-1914; Interwar = 1914–1939; New = after 1939; NP = after 1970 and party platform suggests some focus on new politics.
  • 16. Analyse 1970-1995  Worin liegt der Grund für die zunehmende Instabilität?  JA und NEIN: das gesamte Parteisystem ist instabiler! alte Parteien Table 3: Summary of als NP parties und interwar parties Period weniger betroffen Stability Measures by Party Age and Time Old parties Interwar parties New parties New + NP parties Stability 1945–70 1970–95 Change 1945–70 1970–95 Change 1945–70 1970–95 Change 1970–95 Change measure (N) (N) (sig) (N) (N) (sig) (N) (N) (sig) (N) (sig) Median 0.19% 0.15% -0.04% 0.19% 0.27% +0.08%* 0.18% 0.23% +0.05% 0.25 +0.07% volatility (39) (39) (0.901) (30) (23) (0.031) (23) (23) (0.717) (40) (0.847) Median 8.0% 10.2% +2.2% 5.8% 11.5% +5.7%** 7.0% 7.7% +0.7% 6.7% -0.3% elasticity (39) (39) (0.197) (30) (23) (0.007) (23) (23) (0.460) (40) (0.830) Median 2.7% 3.5% +0.8% 2.0% 3.5% +1.5%** 2.6% 2.7% +0.1% 2.7 +0.1% variability (39) (39) (0.330) (30) (23) (0.002) (23) (23) (0.538) (40) (0.679) Note: Data used in this piece were taken from Mackie and Rose (1991), from the online Election Results Archive hosted by the Center for Democratic Performance at the State University o New York – Binghamton and from Rose and Urwin (1970). Two-tailed significance levels for differences between medians calculated using Wilcoxan Mann-Whitney U test. * = significant a p 0.05, ** = significant at p 0.01, *** = significant at p 0.001. Party Age codes: Old = pre-1914; Interwar = 1914–1939; New = after 1939; NP = after 1970 and party platform suggests some focus on new politics.
  • 17. Analyse 1970-1995  Auswirkungen: + NP policy parties profitieren von ansteigender Volatilität (7 von 11) - Interwar Parties als große Verlierer (11 von 13)
  • 18. Conclusio  Sind Cleavages immer noch frozen?  1970: Old parties waren die stabilsten Parteien.  1995: a) Die Tatsache, dass sich die Parteien wenig änderten, sie aber immer noch die dominante Rolle spielen, könnte bedeuten: cleavages are frozen b) IW Parties wurden genauso instabil wie NP Parties. New Parties beginnen, Old Parties Konkurrenz zu machen cleavages are no longer frozen
  • 19. Conclusio  Sind Cleavages immer noch frozen? Alte Parteien mögen zwar weiterhin dominant sein, aber: der Aufstieg der NP Parties, der starke Niedergang der Interwar Parties und die Stabilisierung der New Parties zeigen (laut Drummond), dass es seit 1970 keine starren Cleavages mehr gibt.
  • 20. KRITIK  Unterscheidung der Parteien nach zeitlicher Entstehung Bsp: Norwegen: Christian People‘s = Interwar Denmark: Conservatives = Old Austria: People‘s = New Warum keine Unterscheidung nach inhaltlichen Gesichtspunkten?

Editor's Notes