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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
REBALANCING THE QUEENSLAND ECONOMY
Presented by Brian Haratsis
Thursday 22 May 2014
Understanding the future of Queensland’s Real Estate
and Construction Industry
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Give us a call if you have any questions…
MacroPlan Dimasi is Australia’s first choice when seeking solutions which add value to
important property, planning and economic development projects.
We welcome the opportunity to discuss with you, key market trends as they relate to
your business and sector. If you have any questions regarding any of the data provided
in this presentation please feel free to give us a call.
Brian Haratsis – Executive Chairman, 03 9600 0500 or haratsis@macroplan.com.au
Joel Taylor – General Manager Queensland, 07 3221 8166 or taylor@macroplan.com.au
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Contents
 Demographics
 Economics
 Resources
 Agriculture
 Ageing
 Budget and Cycles
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
The rebalancing megatrends
 Demographics – NOM vs. NIM
 Business Investment – mining vs. non-mining
 Emerging vs. declining regions
 SEQ vs. regions
 Budgets vs. economic cycles
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
The rebalancing megatrends
 Workers vs. dependents
 Tourism – international vs. domestic tourism
 Queensland vs. eastern seaboard
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Demographics | population growth
Source: ABS Cat 3101
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Demographics
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Interstate Migration | Queensland
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
0-14 15-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Overseas Migration | Queensland
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
0-14 15-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Demographics – labour markets
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics – tourism
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics
Source:QldGovernmentStatistician’soffice,Qld
Treasury&Trade
March Quarter 2013 March Quarter 2014
TIPPING POINT
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics – household sector
X Factor
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics – high debt Post GFC Target
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics – house price arbitrage
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics – business sector
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics – business sector
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics – industry
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics – commodity prices
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics – balance of payments & external
position
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Location of
Australia’s Gas
Resources and
Infrastructure
Resources
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Resources
Outlook to
2023 – Eastern
Australian Gas
Market
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Resources
Short term gas market projections
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Resources
Short term gas supply projections
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Resources
Number of Advanced Projects
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Agriculture
 The Queensland government has a 2040 vision for the
agriculture, fisheries and forestry industries. It will work
with all stakeholders to address four key pathways:
 Securing and increasing resource availability
 Driving productivity growth across the supply chain
 Securing and increasing market access
 Minimising the costs of production
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Agriculture
Qld volume of
agriculture output
in 1981-82 dollars
Source: Qld’s agriculture strategy | A 2040 vision to double agricultural production
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Agriculture
Pathways to double
agricultural
production
Source: Qld’s agriculture strategy | A 2040 vision to double agricultural production
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Ageing
 Between the past 40 years and the next 40 years, the
number of persons aged
65 years and over
increases dramatically.
 The aged dependency
ratio doubles.
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Ageing
Growth in dependency ratio driven by migration
programs of
1970s to 2000.
Now at 1%
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Ageing
Retirement living vs. retirement villages
 Only 6-8% of
the market
live in
retirement
villages.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Perth Adelaide Brisbane Capital City
Average
Sydney Melbourne
RetirementVillagePenetrationRate
MediumandHighDensityDwellingShare
Retirement Village Penetration Rate vs Medium and High Density Dwelling Share,
Capital Cities
Share of Medium/High Density Dwellings Retirement Village Penetration Rate
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Ageing
1
23
4
Demand for
retirement
living dwellings
– future demand.
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Ageing
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
Sep-97
Feb-98
Jul-98
Dec-98
May-99
Oct-99
Mar-00
Aug-00
Jan-01
Jun-01
Nov-01
Apr-02
Sep-02
Feb-03
Jul-03
Dec-03
May-04
Oct-04
Mar-05
Aug-05
Jan-06
Jun-06
Nov-06
Apr-07
Sep-07
Feb-08
Jul-08
Dec-08
May-09
Oct-09
Mar-10
LabourForceParticipationRate
Participation Rate in the Labour Force, People Aged 65+, Queensland
More people 65+ are working
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Budget and Cycles
 Federal
 Headline Numbers
 GDP: $1,567 Billion (Chain Volume Measures)
 RBA Target Cash Rate: 2.5%
 Total Budget Spend: $415.7bn
 Budget Spend per cent of GDP: 25.4%
Major Impact : Interest rates on hold.  Confidence.
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Budget and Cycles
 Federal
 Key Themes
 Business Sector
 Infrastructure
 Mining
 Tourism
 Service Sector (Health + Education)
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Cycles
 Over the last 20 years QLD has experienced high
volatility in growth and development due to national
and local economic cycles driving:
 Interest Rates
 Business Investment
 House and Land Prices
 Immigration
 Gross State Product and
 wealth
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Australian GDP Growth Cyclicality
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
GDP (LHS) GDP Growth (RHS)
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Population Cycles – net migration
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
The Cyclical Economy
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Aug-1990
Mar-1991
Oct-1991
May-1992
Dec-1992
Jul-1993
Feb-1994
Sep-1994
Apr-1995
Nov-1995
Jun-1996
Jan-1997
Aug-1997
Mar-1998
Oct-1998
May-1999
Dec-1999
Jul-2000
Feb-2001
Sep-2001
Apr-2002
Nov-2002
Jun-2003
Jan-2004
Aug-2004
Mar-2005
Oct-2005
May-2006
Dec-2006
Jul-2007
Feb-2008
Sep-2008
Apr-2009
Nov-2009
Jun-2010
Jan-2011
Aug-2011
Mar-2012
Oct-2012
May-2013
Dec-2013
%
RBA Target Cash Rate
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
The Current Bust Cycle in Qld has bottomed
 ↑GSP
 ↑ Labour Force
 ↑ Private Investment
 ↑ Population
 Housing prices at realistic levels
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Queensland GSP Growth
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
%GSPGrowth
Real GSP Budget Forecast
Forecast
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Building Approvals - Queensland
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
2.2%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Growth(%)
DwellingApprovals(No.)
Dwelling Approvals (LHS) MacroPlan Forecast (Dwelling Approvals)
10-year average growth (RHS)
Forecast
Forecast Building Approvals - Queensland
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
17.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
ShareofDwellingsFInanced(%)
DwellingsFinanced(no.)
Total Dwellings Financed (LHS) First Home Buyer Share (RHS) 10-year average FHB share (%)
Housing finance - Queensland
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
National Dwelling Prices – March Qtr 2014
35% Arbitrage – 40% Brisbane ($450k) / Sydney $750k)
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Median Housing Sale Price - Qld
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Median Rent of Lodgements - Qld
$/week
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
House Sales – volumes - Qld
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Unit Sale Volumes - Qld
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Queensland Snapshot – May 2014
Source: ABS Cat. 3101, 3218, 6345, 6401, 6202,
6414, 8510, 8731, 9314 & Tourism Research
Australia
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Implications for Real Estate and Construction
 Two key themes.
1. Resources investment likely to persist longer than
expected.
2. Synchronised State level economic growth likely by 2016/17
with initial growth in 2014/15.
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Implications for Real Estate and Construction
 Tipping Point
The tipping point occurred in the December 2013 / March
2014 quarters when employment growth outstripped the
national average, population growth at $1.8% shifted back
towards 2% and retail expenditure shifted in line with
Melbourne and Sydney.
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Implications for Real Estate and Construction
 Looking to 2016 | initial economic transition
 Low interest rates (<3% cash rate)
 Moderate inflation (2.5% – 3.0%)
 Fast population growth (2% or 100,000 per annum)
 Resource exports 100%
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Implications for Real Estate and Construction
 Looking to 2016 | initial economic transition
 Public infrastructure expenditure  10% per annum
 25% non-resource investment 
 25% (significant job impact)
 Population driven services (e.g. retail, health, education)
 employment at 2% per annum.
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Implications for Real Estate and Construction
 Brisbane
 Retail floorspace investment  significantly
 Residential :
 Multi-Unit
 CBD  /
 Non CBD 
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Implications for Real Estate and Construction
 Brisbane
 Residential :
 Detached dwellings 
 Tightening land supply
 Investment housing 25% - 35% stock /  Rental demand.
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Implications for Real Estate and Construction
 Brisbane
 Office :
 Over-supply in CBD / service sector employment and
growth post 2016/17
 Under-supply outside CBD
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Implications for Real Estate and Construction
 Brisbane
 Tourism :
 Domestic tourism 1% per annum growth
 International tourism 4% per annum growth (max)
 New Brisbane casino and regional
 Freight and Logistics :
 Major investment potential
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
X Factors
 Federal and State balanced budgets 2017/18
 G20
 Commonwealth Games – 2018
 Brisbane Airport second runway – 2020 ( visitations)
 Broadwater Cruise Ship Terminal – 2018
 Broadwater Casino / Hotels / Wavebreak Island – 2018-2025
 Chinese Tourist Potential
 Inland Rail – Brisbane / Toowoomba
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
X Factors
 Toowoomba Second Range Crossing
 Toowoomba Airport
 Resource Exports  150% by 2020
 Agricultural Exports  50% by 2020
 Government expenditure  /  public sector employment
 Housing price arbitrage (Sydney) – post 2015   NIM
 Chinese / US / Japanese investment returns to Qld
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Eastern Seaboard / Global Context
 Fast growth in Melbourne and Sydney (demographic +
economic) ALWAYS results in downstream Qld impact.
 From 2014 to 2019 Sydney / Melbourne / Brisbane will
increase population by 1.4m people.
 With stable and consistent Federal governance,
synchronised growth (except tourism) is likely to occur in
Queensland post 2016 – as follows…
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Eastern Seaboard / Global Context
 3% Australian GDP
 2% + population growth
 4% GSP
 Growth in key export sectors – resources/agriculture
 State and local government employment growth
 Return to Brisbane of national services sector (10 years post
GFC)
 Major infrastructure expenditure (PPPs)
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Opportunities
 Urban Planning | deregulation
 Unlocking the value of the middle ring
 Tourism | new strategy and product
 Freight and Logistics | resources / agriculture
 Global Services Sectors | resources / agriculture / freight
and logistics
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Opportunities
 Gold Coast Revival | recreational boating
 Toowoomba | national centre for freight and logistics
and centre for resources and agriculture sectors
 Brisbane | synchronised residential / office / retail
 CBD and inner ring
Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Thank you.
MacroPlan Dimasi is Australia’s first choice when seeking solutions which add value to
important property, planning and economic development projects.
We welcome the opportunity to discuss with you, key market trends as they relate to
your business and sector. If you have any questions regarding any of the data provided
in this presentation please feel free to give us a call.
Brian Haratsis – Executive Chairman, 03 9600 0500 or haratsis@macroplan.com.au
Joel Taylor – General Manager Queensland, 07 3221 8166 or taylor@macroplan.com.au

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Understanding the future of Queensland's Real Estate and Construction Industry

  • 1. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 REBALANCING THE QUEENSLAND ECONOMY Presented by Brian Haratsis Thursday 22 May 2014 Understanding the future of Queensland’s Real Estate and Construction Industry
  • 2. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Give us a call if you have any questions… MacroPlan Dimasi is Australia’s first choice when seeking solutions which add value to important property, planning and economic development projects. We welcome the opportunity to discuss with you, key market trends as they relate to your business and sector. If you have any questions regarding any of the data provided in this presentation please feel free to give us a call. Brian Haratsis – Executive Chairman, 03 9600 0500 or haratsis@macroplan.com.au Joel Taylor – General Manager Queensland, 07 3221 8166 or taylor@macroplan.com.au
  • 3. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Contents  Demographics  Economics  Resources  Agriculture  Ageing  Budget and Cycles
  • 4. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 The rebalancing megatrends  Demographics – NOM vs. NIM  Business Investment – mining vs. non-mining  Emerging vs. declining regions  SEQ vs. regions  Budgets vs. economic cycles
  • 5. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 The rebalancing megatrends  Workers vs. dependents  Tourism – international vs. domestic tourism  Queensland vs. eastern seaboard
  • 6. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Demographics | population growth Source: ABS Cat 3101
  • 7. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Demographics
  • 8. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Interstate Migration | Queensland -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+ Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
  • 9. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Overseas Migration | Queensland -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+ Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
  • 10. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Demographics – labour markets
  • 11. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Economics
  • 12. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Economics – tourism
  • 13. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Economics Source:QldGovernmentStatistician’soffice,Qld Treasury&Trade March Quarter 2013 March Quarter 2014 TIPPING POINT
  • 14. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Economics – household sector X Factor
  • 15. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Economics – high debt Post GFC Target
  • 16. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Economics – house price arbitrage
  • 17. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Economics – business sector
  • 18. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Economics – business sector
  • 19. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Economics – industry
  • 20. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Economics – commodity prices
  • 21. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Economics – balance of payments & external position
  • 22. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Location of Australia’s Gas Resources and Infrastructure Resources
  • 23. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Resources Outlook to 2023 – Eastern Australian Gas Market
  • 24. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Resources Short term gas market projections
  • 25. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Resources Short term gas supply projections
  • 26. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Resources Number of Advanced Projects
  • 27. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Agriculture  The Queensland government has a 2040 vision for the agriculture, fisheries and forestry industries. It will work with all stakeholders to address four key pathways:  Securing and increasing resource availability  Driving productivity growth across the supply chain  Securing and increasing market access  Minimising the costs of production
  • 28. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Agriculture Qld volume of agriculture output in 1981-82 dollars Source: Qld’s agriculture strategy | A 2040 vision to double agricultural production
  • 29. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Agriculture Pathways to double agricultural production Source: Qld’s agriculture strategy | A 2040 vision to double agricultural production
  • 30. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Ageing  Between the past 40 years and the next 40 years, the number of persons aged 65 years and over increases dramatically.  The aged dependency ratio doubles.
  • 31. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Ageing Growth in dependency ratio driven by migration programs of 1970s to 2000. Now at 1%
  • 32. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Ageing Retirement living vs. retirement villages  Only 6-8% of the market live in retirement villages. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Perth Adelaide Brisbane Capital City Average Sydney Melbourne RetirementVillagePenetrationRate MediumandHighDensityDwellingShare Retirement Village Penetration Rate vs Medium and High Density Dwelling Share, Capital Cities Share of Medium/High Density Dwellings Retirement Village Penetration Rate
  • 33. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Ageing 1 23 4 Demand for retirement living dwellings – future demand.
  • 34. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Ageing 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% Sep-97 Feb-98 Jul-98 Dec-98 May-99 Oct-99 Mar-00 Aug-00 Jan-01 Jun-01 Nov-01 Apr-02 Sep-02 Feb-03 Jul-03 Dec-03 May-04 Oct-04 Mar-05 Aug-05 Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 LabourForceParticipationRate Participation Rate in the Labour Force, People Aged 65+, Queensland More people 65+ are working
  • 35. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Budget and Cycles  Federal  Headline Numbers  GDP: $1,567 Billion (Chain Volume Measures)  RBA Target Cash Rate: 2.5%  Total Budget Spend: $415.7bn  Budget Spend per cent of GDP: 25.4% Major Impact : Interest rates on hold.  Confidence.
  • 36. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Budget and Cycles  Federal  Key Themes  Business Sector  Infrastructure  Mining  Tourism  Service Sector (Health + Education)
  • 37. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Cycles  Over the last 20 years QLD has experienced high volatility in growth and development due to national and local economic cycles driving:  Interest Rates  Business Investment  House and Land Prices  Immigration  Gross State Product and  wealth
  • 38. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Australian GDP Growth Cyclicality -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 GDP (LHS) GDP Growth (RHS)
  • 39. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Population Cycles – net migration
  • 40. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 The Cyclical Economy 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Aug-1990 Mar-1991 Oct-1991 May-1992 Dec-1992 Jul-1993 Feb-1994 Sep-1994 Apr-1995 Nov-1995 Jun-1996 Jan-1997 Aug-1997 Mar-1998 Oct-1998 May-1999 Dec-1999 Jul-2000 Feb-2001 Sep-2001 Apr-2002 Nov-2002 Jun-2003 Jan-2004 Aug-2004 Mar-2005 Oct-2005 May-2006 Dec-2006 Jul-2007 Feb-2008 Sep-2008 Apr-2009 Nov-2009 Jun-2010 Jan-2011 Aug-2011 Mar-2012 Oct-2012 May-2013 Dec-2013 % RBA Target Cash Rate
  • 41. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 The Current Bust Cycle in Qld has bottomed  ↑GSP  ↑ Labour Force  ↑ Private Investment  ↑ Population  Housing prices at realistic levels
  • 42. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Queensland GSP Growth 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% %GSPGrowth Real GSP Budget Forecast Forecast
  • 43. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Building Approvals - Queensland
  • 44. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 2.2% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 Growth(%) DwellingApprovals(No.) Dwelling Approvals (LHS) MacroPlan Forecast (Dwelling Approvals) 10-year average growth (RHS) Forecast Forecast Building Approvals - Queensland
  • 45. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 17.2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 ShareofDwellingsFInanced(%) DwellingsFinanced(no.) Total Dwellings Financed (LHS) First Home Buyer Share (RHS) 10-year average FHB share (%) Housing finance - Queensland
  • 46. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 National Dwelling Prices – March Qtr 2014 35% Arbitrage – 40% Brisbane ($450k) / Sydney $750k)
  • 47. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Median Housing Sale Price - Qld
  • 48. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Median Rent of Lodgements - Qld $/week
  • 49. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 House Sales – volumes - Qld
  • 50. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Unit Sale Volumes - Qld
  • 51. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Queensland Snapshot – May 2014 Source: ABS Cat. 3101, 3218, 6345, 6401, 6202, 6414, 8510, 8731, 9314 & Tourism Research Australia
  • 52. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Implications for Real Estate and Construction  Two key themes. 1. Resources investment likely to persist longer than expected. 2. Synchronised State level economic growth likely by 2016/17 with initial growth in 2014/15.
  • 53. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Implications for Real Estate and Construction  Tipping Point The tipping point occurred in the December 2013 / March 2014 quarters when employment growth outstripped the national average, population growth at $1.8% shifted back towards 2% and retail expenditure shifted in line with Melbourne and Sydney.
  • 54. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Implications for Real Estate and Construction  Looking to 2016 | initial economic transition  Low interest rates (<3% cash rate)  Moderate inflation (2.5% – 3.0%)  Fast population growth (2% or 100,000 per annum)  Resource exports 100%
  • 55. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Implications for Real Estate and Construction  Looking to 2016 | initial economic transition  Public infrastructure expenditure  10% per annum  25% non-resource investment   25% (significant job impact)  Population driven services (e.g. retail, health, education)  employment at 2% per annum.
  • 56. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Implications for Real Estate and Construction  Brisbane  Retail floorspace investment  significantly  Residential :  Multi-Unit  CBD  /  Non CBD 
  • 57. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Implications for Real Estate and Construction  Brisbane  Residential :  Detached dwellings   Tightening land supply  Investment housing 25% - 35% stock /  Rental demand.
  • 58. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Implications for Real Estate and Construction  Brisbane  Office :  Over-supply in CBD / service sector employment and growth post 2016/17  Under-supply outside CBD
  • 59. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Implications for Real Estate and Construction  Brisbane  Tourism :  Domestic tourism 1% per annum growth  International tourism 4% per annum growth (max)  New Brisbane casino and regional  Freight and Logistics :  Major investment potential
  • 60. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 X Factors  Federal and State balanced budgets 2017/18  G20  Commonwealth Games – 2018  Brisbane Airport second runway – 2020 ( visitations)  Broadwater Cruise Ship Terminal – 2018  Broadwater Casino / Hotels / Wavebreak Island – 2018-2025  Chinese Tourist Potential  Inland Rail – Brisbane / Toowoomba
  • 61. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 X Factors  Toowoomba Second Range Crossing  Toowoomba Airport  Resource Exports  150% by 2020  Agricultural Exports  50% by 2020  Government expenditure  /  public sector employment  Housing price arbitrage (Sydney) – post 2015   NIM  Chinese / US / Japanese investment returns to Qld
  • 62. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Eastern Seaboard / Global Context  Fast growth in Melbourne and Sydney (demographic + economic) ALWAYS results in downstream Qld impact.  From 2014 to 2019 Sydney / Melbourne / Brisbane will increase population by 1.4m people.  With stable and consistent Federal governance, synchronised growth (except tourism) is likely to occur in Queensland post 2016 – as follows…
  • 63. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Eastern Seaboard / Global Context  3% Australian GDP  2% + population growth  4% GSP  Growth in key export sectors – resources/agriculture  State and local government employment growth  Return to Brisbane of national services sector (10 years post GFC)  Major infrastructure expenditure (PPPs)
  • 64. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Opportunities  Urban Planning | deregulation  Unlocking the value of the middle ring  Tourism | new strategy and product  Freight and Logistics | resources / agriculture  Global Services Sectors | resources / agriculture / freight and logistics
  • 65. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Opportunities  Gold Coast Revival | recreational boating  Toowoomba | national centre for freight and logistics and centre for resources and agriculture sectors  Brisbane | synchronised residential / office / retail  CBD and inner ring
  • 66. Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014 Thank you. MacroPlan Dimasi is Australia’s first choice when seeking solutions which add value to important property, planning and economic development projects. We welcome the opportunity to discuss with you, key market trends as they relate to your business and sector. If you have any questions regarding any of the data provided in this presentation please feel free to give us a call. Brian Haratsis – Executive Chairman, 03 9600 0500 or haratsis@macroplan.com.au Joel Taylor – General Manager Queensland, 07 3221 8166 or taylor@macroplan.com.au

Editor's Notes

  1. 2003-2008 – low unemployment and major skill shortages provided opportunity for continued labour force participation. 2009-2012 – loss of superannuation and wealth from GFC to require some retirees to work longer. First Baby Boomers hit retirement age. 2012+ - return of very low unemployment (2%) and chronic skills shortages presents greater opportunity for continued work. Impact – people transition into retirement.