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Understanding the Energy Crisis in Nepal
Assessment of Country’s Energy Demand & Supply
Ramhari Poudyal, Shree Krishna Khadka & Pavel Loskot
 LUMBINI is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and a Buddhist pilgrimage of Nepal,
fully associated with the life and teachings of the Lord Buddha .
 Holy place and pilgrimage of world’s 488 million Buddhist people including
Thailand 93% and Japan 67%
Nepal – Birth place of Lord Buddha
Mount Everest (Roof of the World)
● Nepal faces acute power shortages and opportunities exist in the hydropower
sector to meet this gap in demand.
● Nepal is targeting graduating from least developed country (LDC) status to
developing country status by 2022 and aims to become a middle income
country by 2030.
● To meet its growth aspirations, Nepal will need to add 6,000+ MW (which
requires investment of approximately USD 10 billion). Consequently, a lot of
industries and infrastructure projects are in the pipeline opening up huge
opportunities.
● In addition to energy development, investment opportunities lie in the up
gradation and expansion of distribution systems (for which investment of
approximately USD 2 billion is required) and transmission systems (for which
investment of approximately USD 4.45 billion is required).
● Recent Investment summit march 2017 has signed Letters of Intent (LoI) for
investing a total $ 13.52 billion. Among the interested investors China alone
has signed LoI worth $ 8.3 billion.
Nepal – Land of Opportunities for Investment
● The Power Trade Agreement (PTA) signed with India has opened up a large
market for exporting electricity to India.
● The SAARC Framework agreement on Energy Cooperation signed during the
18th SAARC Summit in 2014 will pave the way for the eventual formation of a
regional energy market.
Nepal – Land of Opportunities for Investment
 Nepal’s theoretical capacity
for producing power from
hydropower projects is
around 80,000 MW, out of
which 43,000 MW is
estimated to be economically
feasible
EconomicIndicators
Source:WorldDevelopment
Indicator2014
Particulars 2011 2012 2013 2014`
Population (Million) 27.18 27.50 27.83 28.17
GDP (US $ Million)
GDP growth rate (%) 3.4 4.8 4.1 5.4
GNI per capita (US $) 610 690 730 730
GNI PPP per capita (US $) 2050 2170 2270 2410
Agriculture value added (%GDP) 38.3 36.5 35.0 33.7
Industry value added (%GDP) 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.6
Service value added (%GDP) 46.3 48.0 49.2 50.7
Workers’ remittances (US $ Million) 4216.9 4793.4 5588.9 5769.7
Inflation consumer price (annual %) 9.3 9.5 9.0 8.4
Inflation GDP deflator price (annual %) 10.8 6.6 6.6 8.7
Source: World Development Indicator 2014
Economic Indicators
Electricity Consumption Per Capita
(MWh/Capita) in 2014
Renewable energy potential of Nepal
Technologies
Estimated
Potential
Basis
Mini/Micro
Hydro
>100 MW Possible in 55 Districts of Nepal
Domestic
Biogas
1.1 million plants At existing livestock population
Solar Energy 2100 MW
4.5 KWh/m2/day radiation if 2%
area is taken as being
acceptable
Improved
Cooking
Stoves
>2.5 million
Assuming 75% eligible of the
total households by the 2011
census
Improved
Water Mill
25,000 – 30,000
MW
-
Wind 3000 MW
Assuming 10% of area with
more than 300W/m2
Bio – Fuel 100000 tons
Assuming 10% of area with
more than 300W/m2
Energy Review of Nepal in 2015
The trends of electricity supply and demand
in Nepal
United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) [1], which aim to end poverty, protect the
planet, and ensure prosperity for all, are scheduled to be achieved over next 15 years. Of the 17
SDGs, Goal 7 aims to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable & modern Energy for all
people.
 Over 1.2 billion people 20 % of the world
population have no access to electricity
 768 million people lack access to clean
drinking water and 2.5 billion do not
have adequate sanitation
 2.8 billion people still cook with solid
fuel like wood, agricultural residue,
animal dung
 1 billion people live more than 2 km
from an all-weather road.
 About 6.6 million people of Nepal have
no electricity
Challenges of Global Infrastructure
Sector wise Energy Demand of Nepal
National GDP of Nepal 2012-2040
Energy Investment in 2010 by some
selected Countries
Load Profile of NEA
Home Solar System
 12 gallon of kerosene per year to
give off 5 hours of light a day. That is
only 30$ a year for kerosene lamps.
 Solar home system would be the
answer for 1.2 billion people who are
living without modern electricity. This
system can be build according to
customers’ size and their electrical
demand.
 However, Nepal has very low
electrical power per capita. 94 %
Electricity customers are domestic
among them majority of % use just
below 25 KWh electricity per month
Price of different PV System in Nepal
PV System GP - 1000 GP - 2000 GP – 2000+ GP – 3000 GP – 4000 GP - 6500
Good for: Lights, TV,
Computer
Lights, TV,
Computer
Lights, TV,
Computer,
Small
Water
pump
Add Fridge
and Rice
Cooker
Large
Appliances,
More run
Time
Longest
Run Time,
More
Appliances
Daily
production
Maximum
load
0.8 KWh
120 W
2KWh
300 W
2KWh
500 W
3.02KWh
720 W
4.0 KWh
960
6.5 KWh
1100 W
Total Price NRS 65,000 NRS
1,15,000
NRS
1,55,000
NRS
2,20,000
NRS
3,00,000
NRS
4,50,000
Monthly
Payment
N/A NRS 2,355 NRS 3,175 NRS 4,505 NRS 6,143 NRS 9215
Technology Typical Characteristics Installed Costs or LCOE
US$ / KW or US Cents
/KWh
Biogas digester Digester size: 6 – 8 m3 Unit cost: US$ 612/Unit
(Asia); US$ 886/Unit
(Africa)
Biomass gasifier Size: 20 – 5,000 KW LCOE: 8 – 12 (Global)
LCOE: 5 – 6 (China)
Solar home system System size: 20 – 100 W LCOE: 160 – 200 (Global)
LCOE: 4 (Bangladesh)
Household wind turbine Turbine size: 0.1 – 3 KW
(Off – grid, residential)
1. – 2.5 MW
(Industrial, Institutional)
Capitol cost: 10,000 / KW
(1 KW turbine)
5,000 / KW (5KW)
2,500 – 3,500 / KW (250
KW)
LCOE: 15 – 35+
Hydropower:
Off – grid /rural
Plant size: 0.1 – 1,000 KW
Plant / Storage type:
Run – off – river, diurnal
storage, hydrokinetic
Capital costs: 1,175 –
6,000
LCOE: 5 – 40
Village – scale mini – grid System size: 10 – 1,000
KW
LCOE 25 – 100
Distributed Renewable energy in Developing Countries
Home Solar System
Technology Typical Characteristics Installed Costs or LCOE
US$ / KW or US Cents /KWh
Biogas digester Digester size: 6 – 8 m3 Unit cost: US$ 612/Unit
(Asia); US$ 886/Unit (Africa)
Biomass gasifier Size: 20 – 5,000 KW LCOE: 8 – 12 (Global)
LCOE: 5 – 6 (China)
Solar home system System size: 20 – 100 W LCOE: 160 – 200 (Global)
LCOE: 4 (Bangladesh)
Household wind turbine Turbine size: 0.1 – 3 KW
(Off – grid, residential)
1. – 2.5 MW
(Industrial, institutional)
Capitol cost: 10,000 / KW
(1 KW turbine)
5,000 / KW (5KW)
2,500 – 3,500 / KW (250 KW)
LCOE: 15 – 35+
Hydropower:
Off – grid /rural
Plant size: 0.1 – 1,000 KW
Plant / Storage type:
Run – off – river, diurnal
storage, hydrokinetic
Capital costs: 1,175 – 6,000
LCOE: 5 – 40
Village – scale mini – grid System size: 10 – 1,000 KW LCOE 25 – 100
Distributed Renewable energy in
Developing Countries
Transmission & Distribution Loss
 Last year were
31.48%, whereas
the world
average for such
losses is 8.16%
Solar and Wind Price in $ Million/Megawatts
2010 - 2016
Conclusion
 Far sighted government policies are essential to steer the global
Energy system on to a safer course
 Relatively low cost of labour; minimum monthly wage being NPR 8,000 (approx. USD
76) as at February 2016
 Large English speaking population, especial in the capital, Kathmandu
 Ranked 2nd after Sri Lanka among South Asian countries in the ‘Ease of Doing
Business Report 2015’ by the World Bank Group
 Foreign investors are allowed 100% ownership of a company in almost all sectors
 Member of World Trade Organization (WTO)
 Major multilateral companies incorporating in Nepal tend to record high profitability
 If the foreign investment capital is less than NPR 2 billion (approx. USD 20 million), the
Director General of Department of Industry (DOI) has the authority to approve the
project.
 If the investment amount is NPR 2–10 billion (approx. USD 20–100 million), the
Industrial Promotion Board, chaired by the Minister of Industry, has the authority to grant
foreign investment approval.

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Understanding the Energy Crisis in Nepal - Assessment of Country’s Energy Demand & Supply, 2017 IEEE Conference Pattaya, Thailand

  • 1. Understanding the Energy Crisis in Nepal Assessment of Country’s Energy Demand & Supply Ramhari Poudyal, Shree Krishna Khadka & Pavel Loskot
  • 2.  LUMBINI is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and a Buddhist pilgrimage of Nepal, fully associated with the life and teachings of the Lord Buddha .  Holy place and pilgrimage of world’s 488 million Buddhist people including Thailand 93% and Japan 67% Nepal – Birth place of Lord Buddha
  • 3. Mount Everest (Roof of the World)
  • 4. ● Nepal faces acute power shortages and opportunities exist in the hydropower sector to meet this gap in demand. ● Nepal is targeting graduating from least developed country (LDC) status to developing country status by 2022 and aims to become a middle income country by 2030. ● To meet its growth aspirations, Nepal will need to add 6,000+ MW (which requires investment of approximately USD 10 billion). Consequently, a lot of industries and infrastructure projects are in the pipeline opening up huge opportunities. ● In addition to energy development, investment opportunities lie in the up gradation and expansion of distribution systems (for which investment of approximately USD 2 billion is required) and transmission systems (for which investment of approximately USD 4.45 billion is required). ● Recent Investment summit march 2017 has signed Letters of Intent (LoI) for investing a total $ 13.52 billion. Among the interested investors China alone has signed LoI worth $ 8.3 billion. Nepal – Land of Opportunities for Investment
  • 5. ● The Power Trade Agreement (PTA) signed with India has opened up a large market for exporting electricity to India. ● The SAARC Framework agreement on Energy Cooperation signed during the 18th SAARC Summit in 2014 will pave the way for the eventual formation of a regional energy market. Nepal – Land of Opportunities for Investment  Nepal’s theoretical capacity for producing power from hydropower projects is around 80,000 MW, out of which 43,000 MW is estimated to be economically feasible
  • 6. EconomicIndicators Source:WorldDevelopment Indicator2014 Particulars 2011 2012 2013 2014` Population (Million) 27.18 27.50 27.83 28.17 GDP (US $ Million) GDP growth rate (%) 3.4 4.8 4.1 5.4 GNI per capita (US $) 610 690 730 730 GNI PPP per capita (US $) 2050 2170 2270 2410 Agriculture value added (%GDP) 38.3 36.5 35.0 33.7 Industry value added (%GDP) 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.6 Service value added (%GDP) 46.3 48.0 49.2 50.7 Workers’ remittances (US $ Million) 4216.9 4793.4 5588.9 5769.7 Inflation consumer price (annual %) 9.3 9.5 9.0 8.4 Inflation GDP deflator price (annual %) 10.8 6.6 6.6 8.7 Source: World Development Indicator 2014 Economic Indicators
  • 7. Electricity Consumption Per Capita (MWh/Capita) in 2014
  • 8. Renewable energy potential of Nepal Technologies Estimated Potential Basis Mini/Micro Hydro >100 MW Possible in 55 Districts of Nepal Domestic Biogas 1.1 million plants At existing livestock population Solar Energy 2100 MW 4.5 KWh/m2/day radiation if 2% area is taken as being acceptable Improved Cooking Stoves >2.5 million Assuming 75% eligible of the total households by the 2011 census Improved Water Mill 25,000 – 30,000 MW - Wind 3000 MW Assuming 10% of area with more than 300W/m2 Bio – Fuel 100000 tons Assuming 10% of area with more than 300W/m2
  • 9. Energy Review of Nepal in 2015
  • 10. The trends of electricity supply and demand in Nepal
  • 11. United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) [1], which aim to end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure prosperity for all, are scheduled to be achieved over next 15 years. Of the 17 SDGs, Goal 7 aims to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable & modern Energy for all people.  Over 1.2 billion people 20 % of the world population have no access to electricity  768 million people lack access to clean drinking water and 2.5 billion do not have adequate sanitation  2.8 billion people still cook with solid fuel like wood, agricultural residue, animal dung  1 billion people live more than 2 km from an all-weather road.  About 6.6 million people of Nepal have no electricity Challenges of Global Infrastructure
  • 12. Sector wise Energy Demand of Nepal
  • 13. National GDP of Nepal 2012-2040
  • 14. Energy Investment in 2010 by some selected Countries
  • 16. Home Solar System  12 gallon of kerosene per year to give off 5 hours of light a day. That is only 30$ a year for kerosene lamps.  Solar home system would be the answer for 1.2 billion people who are living without modern electricity. This system can be build according to customers’ size and their electrical demand.  However, Nepal has very low electrical power per capita. 94 % Electricity customers are domestic among them majority of % use just below 25 KWh electricity per month
  • 17. Price of different PV System in Nepal PV System GP - 1000 GP - 2000 GP – 2000+ GP – 3000 GP – 4000 GP - 6500 Good for: Lights, TV, Computer Lights, TV, Computer Lights, TV, Computer, Small Water pump Add Fridge and Rice Cooker Large Appliances, More run Time Longest Run Time, More Appliances Daily production Maximum load 0.8 KWh 120 W 2KWh 300 W 2KWh 500 W 3.02KWh 720 W 4.0 KWh 960 6.5 KWh 1100 W Total Price NRS 65,000 NRS 1,15,000 NRS 1,55,000 NRS 2,20,000 NRS 3,00,000 NRS 4,50,000 Monthly Payment N/A NRS 2,355 NRS 3,175 NRS 4,505 NRS 6,143 NRS 9215 Technology Typical Characteristics Installed Costs or LCOE US$ / KW or US Cents /KWh Biogas digester Digester size: 6 – 8 m3 Unit cost: US$ 612/Unit (Asia); US$ 886/Unit (Africa) Biomass gasifier Size: 20 – 5,000 KW LCOE: 8 – 12 (Global) LCOE: 5 – 6 (China) Solar home system System size: 20 – 100 W LCOE: 160 – 200 (Global) LCOE: 4 (Bangladesh) Household wind turbine Turbine size: 0.1 – 3 KW (Off – grid, residential) 1. – 2.5 MW (Industrial, Institutional) Capitol cost: 10,000 / KW (1 KW turbine) 5,000 / KW (5KW) 2,500 – 3,500 / KW (250 KW) LCOE: 15 – 35+ Hydropower: Off – grid /rural Plant size: 0.1 – 1,000 KW Plant / Storage type: Run – off – river, diurnal storage, hydrokinetic Capital costs: 1,175 – 6,000 LCOE: 5 – 40 Village – scale mini – grid System size: 10 – 1,000 KW LCOE 25 – 100 Distributed Renewable energy in Developing Countries
  • 19. Technology Typical Characteristics Installed Costs or LCOE US$ / KW or US Cents /KWh Biogas digester Digester size: 6 – 8 m3 Unit cost: US$ 612/Unit (Asia); US$ 886/Unit (Africa) Biomass gasifier Size: 20 – 5,000 KW LCOE: 8 – 12 (Global) LCOE: 5 – 6 (China) Solar home system System size: 20 – 100 W LCOE: 160 – 200 (Global) LCOE: 4 (Bangladesh) Household wind turbine Turbine size: 0.1 – 3 KW (Off – grid, residential) 1. – 2.5 MW (Industrial, institutional) Capitol cost: 10,000 / KW (1 KW turbine) 5,000 / KW (5KW) 2,500 – 3,500 / KW (250 KW) LCOE: 15 – 35+ Hydropower: Off – grid /rural Plant size: 0.1 – 1,000 KW Plant / Storage type: Run – off – river, diurnal storage, hydrokinetic Capital costs: 1,175 – 6,000 LCOE: 5 – 40 Village – scale mini – grid System size: 10 – 1,000 KW LCOE 25 – 100 Distributed Renewable energy in Developing Countries
  • 20. Transmission & Distribution Loss  Last year were 31.48%, whereas the world average for such losses is 8.16%
  • 21. Solar and Wind Price in $ Million/Megawatts 2010 - 2016
  • 22. Conclusion  Far sighted government policies are essential to steer the global Energy system on to a safer course  Relatively low cost of labour; minimum monthly wage being NPR 8,000 (approx. USD 76) as at February 2016  Large English speaking population, especial in the capital, Kathmandu  Ranked 2nd after Sri Lanka among South Asian countries in the ‘Ease of Doing Business Report 2015’ by the World Bank Group  Foreign investors are allowed 100% ownership of a company in almost all sectors  Member of World Trade Organization (WTO)  Major multilateral companies incorporating in Nepal tend to record high profitability  If the foreign investment capital is less than NPR 2 billion (approx. USD 20 million), the Director General of Department of Industry (DOI) has the authority to approve the project.  If the investment amount is NPR 2–10 billion (approx. USD 20–100 million), the Industrial Promotion Board, chaired by the Minister of Industry, has the authority to grant foreign investment approval.