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The American Dream and
the 2013 Housing Outlook
Wednesday, December 12, 2012




                               @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
Agenda
   Looking Back at 2012

   What Will Consumers Do In 2013?

   2013: What’s In, What’s Out
     5 predictions about housing
     Top 10 markets to watch



                                    @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
2012: Better Than Anyone Dared Hope

 Against all odds
        “Even the best possible 2012 won’t get us halfway back toward normal.”
        Housing market: 47% back to normal


 2012 by the numbers
     Asking Home         Construction        Existing Home        Delinquencies
        Prices              Starts               Sales            + Foreclosures


     +3.8%                +42%                +11%                  -10%
         +1.2% in                              Despite -23%
       Judicial States                          Inventory
        +4.9 in Non-
 •   . Judicial States


                                                          @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
Consumers Bullish About Buying Homes

          % Renters Planning to Buy in Next 2 Years


  January 2011                          22%



     May 2012                                    28%



November 2012                                         31%


                 0%    10%        20%            30%            40%


                                              @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
Millennials Shaken, Not Scarred

 Is homeownership part of your
  personal American Dream?
    72% of 18-34 year-olds
    72% of all adults


 “Renter nation” just a myth
    43% of Millennials are homeowners
    93% of Millennial renters want to buy someday




                                               @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
Young Adults In For Sticker Shock
                                                                              Home Prices   Mortgage Rates
% expecting increase in next year




                                    60%                                                     55%
                                                                        49%                       49%
                                    50%
                                                      43%
                                                                               41%
                                    40%   37%               38%
                                                32%
                                    30%

                                    20%

                                    10%

                                    0%
                                           18-34       35-44             45-54                55+
                                                                  Age
                                                                                @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
Rising Prices Will Unlock Inventory

                         Who Might Sell in 2013               Tight inventory holding
                                                               back sales
                         2010 to 2012                  33%
Year of Home Purchase




                                                              Rising prices create
                         2007 to 2009            20%           inventory via:
                                                                 More construction
                                                                 Homeowners wanting to
                         2003 to 2006            23%              sell


                        2002 or earlier          20%          More likely to sell if:
                                                                 Can make profit
                                          0%   20%     40%       Expect price increases
                                                                 Bought recently
                                                                      @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
2013: What’s Out, What’s In
             2012
                                            2013
      Will home prices bottom?    Will inventory bottom?

          The robo-signing         New mortgage rules
            settlement

         Improving housing           Declining housing
            affordability              affordability

      Expanding refinancing to     Cutting the mortgage
       stimulate the economy        interest deduction
                                     to fix the budget

       National housing policy   “Localized” housing policy

                                              @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
What Makes A Housing Market Healthy?

    Strong fundamentals
       Job growth
       Low vacancy rate – but not too low!
       Little foreclosure inventory


    Not necessarily rising prices
         Big price gains are bounce-backs – “yo-yo dieters”
         Phoenix: high vacancies
         Detroit: weak job growth
         Miami: huge foreclosure inventory




                                                 @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
Top 10 Healthiest Housing Markets Going into 2013




   NOTE: Among 100 largest metros
                                    @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
Wrap Up
   2012 for housing was better than anyone dared to hope

   Consumers are bullish on buying homes

   Millennials are shaken, not scarred, by the housing bust

   “Renter Nation” is just a myth

   Rising prices should unlock inventory in 2013

   What’s in for 2013: new mortgage rules, declining
    affordability, “localized” housing policy, and more

   The healthiest local housing markets are metros with
    strong fundamentals, not necessarily biggest price gains

                                             @jedkolko | #truliapredicts

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Trulia's American Dream Survey, Winter 2012

  • 1. The American Dream and the 2013 Housing Outlook Wednesday, December 12, 2012 @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
  • 2. Agenda  Looking Back at 2012  What Will Consumers Do In 2013?  2013: What’s In, What’s Out  5 predictions about housing  Top 10 markets to watch @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
  • 3. 2012: Better Than Anyone Dared Hope  Against all odds  “Even the best possible 2012 won’t get us halfway back toward normal.”  Housing market: 47% back to normal  2012 by the numbers Asking Home Construction Existing Home Delinquencies Prices Starts Sales + Foreclosures +3.8% +42% +11% -10% +1.2% in Despite -23% Judicial States Inventory +4.9 in Non- • . Judicial States @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
  • 4. Consumers Bullish About Buying Homes % Renters Planning to Buy in Next 2 Years January 2011 22% May 2012 28% November 2012 31% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
  • 5. Millennials Shaken, Not Scarred  Is homeownership part of your personal American Dream?  72% of 18-34 year-olds  72% of all adults  “Renter nation” just a myth  43% of Millennials are homeowners  93% of Millennial renters want to buy someday @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
  • 6. Young Adults In For Sticker Shock Home Prices Mortgage Rates % expecting increase in next year 60% 55% 49% 49% 50% 43% 41% 40% 37% 38% 32% 30% 20% 10% 0% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Age @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
  • 7. Rising Prices Will Unlock Inventory Who Might Sell in 2013  Tight inventory holding back sales 2010 to 2012 33% Year of Home Purchase  Rising prices create 2007 to 2009 20% inventory via:  More construction  Homeowners wanting to 2003 to 2006 23% sell 2002 or earlier 20%  More likely to sell if:  Can make profit 0% 20% 40%  Expect price increases  Bought recently @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
  • 8. 2013: What’s Out, What’s In 2012 2013 Will home prices bottom? Will inventory bottom? The robo-signing New mortgage rules settlement Improving housing Declining housing affordability affordability Expanding refinancing to Cutting the mortgage stimulate the economy interest deduction to fix the budget National housing policy “Localized” housing policy @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
  • 9. What Makes A Housing Market Healthy?  Strong fundamentals  Job growth  Low vacancy rate – but not too low!  Little foreclosure inventory  Not necessarily rising prices  Big price gains are bounce-backs – “yo-yo dieters”  Phoenix: high vacancies  Detroit: weak job growth  Miami: huge foreclosure inventory @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
  • 10. Top 10 Healthiest Housing Markets Going into 2013 NOTE: Among 100 largest metros @jedkolko | #truliapredicts
  • 11. Wrap Up  2012 for housing was better than anyone dared to hope  Consumers are bullish on buying homes  Millennials are shaken, not scarred, by the housing bust  “Renter Nation” is just a myth  Rising prices should unlock inventory in 2013  What’s in for 2013: new mortgage rules, declining affordability, “localized” housing policy, and more  The healthiest local housing markets are metros with strong fundamentals, not necessarily biggest price gains @jedkolko | #truliapredicts