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Toronto Real Estate Returns Q2 2017
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
REALTOR®
Victorian Row Houses
by Jay Woodworth
Creative Commons license
Toronto Real Estate
Returns Report Q2 2017
About this report
It’s 20 years of Toronto real estate growth vs. select stock market indexes. I don’t
claim it’s a perfect comparison, or that a house is the ultimate investment vehicle
(they sure aren’t liquid) – it’s just for fun and to give a nice rough idea.
To note:
• Real estate “returns” exclude land transfer taxes, sales commissions, legal fees, etc.
• Stock market “returns” do not account for re-investing of dividends
• When I say “Toronto” I mean strictly the 416 – not the whole GTA or TREB region
• Multi-year returns show the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) – the rate that if applied each
year would get you from the starting to ending numbers. Crudely, an “average” annual gain.
• The classic line applies: “past performance is not a guarantee of future results”
Sources:
• Real estate numbers from Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats,” using average
prices from all Q2 transactions (Apr-Jun). The “All Real Estate” figure is essentially a portfolio of all
houses and condos from Etobicoke to Scarborough that were bought and sold through the TREB
MLS® System during the quarter, much like the stock indexes are a portfolio of major stocks.
• TSX/S&P and S&P 500 numbers from Yahoo Finance using June 30 closing figures
• MSCI World Index from MSCI website in Canadian dollars using June 30 closing figures
12.4% 15.5%
15.7% 13.4% 12.0%
1 YR. 2 YR. 3 YR. 4 YR.
11.3%
7.9% 2.1% 0.1% 5.8%
S&P 500 15.5% 8.4% 7.3% 10.8%
*
1st
* *
18.2% 9.3%
2nd 2nd 2nd
World Index
Toronto RE vs. Markets
Recent Returns Q2 2017
Toronto real estate has outperformed the TSX in recent years, and ranks well versus other major
market indexes.
6.1% 5.2%
9.8% 7.8% 7.4%
5 YR. 10 YR. 15 YR. 20 YR.
6.9%
5.5% 0.9% 5.2% 4.4%
S&P 500 12.2% 4.9% 6.2% 5.2%
*
1st
16.9% 6.1%
3rd
World Index
Toronto RE vs. Markets
Long Term Returns Q2 2017
Toronto RE outperformed all indexes in all views of ten years or longer1. It topped the TSX in all
20 period lengths, the S&P 500 in 16, and the MSCI in 11.
1st
1. Except in the 14-year view where MSCI was 7.58% and Toronto real estate was 7.54%
1st
1 YR. 2 YR. 3 YR. 4 YR.
Toronto Real Estate
Recent Returns Q2 2017
Q2 detached house price softening has allowed condo apts to overtake detached in the 1 year
view. However, all longer views belong to detached houses (due to supply constraints).
“All types” includes attached houses, condo townhouses, and “other” on top of detached houses and condo apartments.
15.7% 13.4% 12.0% 11.3% ALL
TYPES
18.4% 18.3% 16.8% 14.9%⌂
27.9% 16.7% 13.0% 11.0%
DETACHED
HOUSES
CONDO
APTS.
30%
51%
The above two segments accounted for 81% of Toronto transactions in 2016.
Detached housing has outperformed condos across all long term periods. The “All types” growth
is affected by a changing mix as > 200K condos units have been added to the GTA housing supply
in the past 20 years: Condo apts (least expensive type) were 27% of transactions in 1996 but
were 51% in 2016. Detached houses (most expensive) have fallen from 47% to 30% in that time.
5 YR. 10 YR. 15 YR. 20 YR.
Toronto Real Estate
Long Term Returns Q2 2017
9.8% 7.8% 7.4% 6.9% ALL
TYPES
12.9% 9.8% 9.0% 8.4%⌂
9.3% 7.5% 6.6% 6.8%
DETACHED
HOUSES
CONDO
APTS.
All types includes attached houses, condo townhouses, and “other” on top of detached houses and condo apartments.
$121K $259K $334K
1 YR.
increase
3 YR.
increase
5 YR.
increase
10 YR.
increase
$473K
233K 560K 686K 911K⌂
124K 174K 203K 292K
Current
avg. price
$897K
$1504K
$567K
Highest ever single year Q2 increases for all 3
Buyers paying at least $22K extra in
land transfer taxes (Ontario + Toronto)
on this increase – and that can’t be
put on a mortgage
$233K detached increase was same as avg
price of Toronto property in 1997 ($234K)
Toronto Real Estate
Dollar Increases Q2 2017
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
1-Year Returns (Q2 vs. prior Q2)
S&P/TSX ALL R/E Detached Condo Apt
1-Year Returns: 20 Year History
Q2 2017
⌂12Profitable years in last 20 191919
8Years with highest return 642
10Years with lowest return 613
Most
volatile
Only negative was from financial
market meltdown in fall of 2008
5-Year Average Returns
Q2 2017
⌂13Profitable 5-yr pds in last 17 171717
4Years with highest 5-year return 490
11Years with lowest 5-year return 501
RE never
negative in
a 5-year
view
Last 6 periods in a row
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
End Year
Rolling 5-Year Returns ending at Q2
S&P/TSX ALL R/E Detached Condo Apt
Not since 2008
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
End Year
Rolling 10-Year Returns ending at Q2
S&P/TSX ALL R/E Detached Condo Apt
10-Year Average Returns
Q2 2017
⌂12Profitable 10-yr pds in last 12 121212
3Years with highest 10-yr return 180
7Years with lowest 10-yr return 401
Most volatile, and 7.8%
spread from best to worst
Real estate
consistently
within 5%-
8% range
Last 7 in a row
4.4%
5.2%
0.9%
5.5%
7.9% 6.9%7.4%7.8%
9.8%
15.7%
8.4%9.0%
9.8%
12.9%
18.4%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2019181716151413121110987654321
Return period, in years, counting back from Q2 2017
Compound Annual Growth Rate, 1-20 years
S&P/TSX ALL R/E Detached Condo Apt
Average Annual Return Timeline
Viewed from Q2 2017
Detached houses have best returns in
all views except the 1-year, when
condo apartments were 27.9%
Lowest detached house CAGR of
8.4% are better than all TSX periods
Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.
I take a “Moneyball” approach to real estate, believing in the importance of both the
quantitative and qualitative – especially in this rapidly shifting real estate market. After
having built up 20 years of trust as an accountant in Toronto's art and music communities, I
now combine my analytical skills and business savvy with my hometown knowledge and
passion to help people like you find their next home. I work with the venerable CENTURY 21
brand at the Regal Realty Inc. brokerage on Queen St. West.
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
Click for more fresh statistics and insight on Toronto real estate:

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Toronto Real Estate Return-On-Investment 1997-2017: Q2 2017

  • 1. Toronto Real Estate Returns Q2 2017 Scott Ingram CPA, CA, MBA REALTOR® Victorian Row Houses by Jay Woodworth Creative Commons license
  • 2. Toronto Real Estate Returns Report Q2 2017 About this report It’s 20 years of Toronto real estate growth vs. select stock market indexes. I don’t claim it’s a perfect comparison, or that a house is the ultimate investment vehicle (they sure aren’t liquid) – it’s just for fun and to give a nice rough idea. To note: • Real estate “returns” exclude land transfer taxes, sales commissions, legal fees, etc. • Stock market “returns” do not account for re-investing of dividends • When I say “Toronto” I mean strictly the 416 – not the whole GTA or TREB region • Multi-year returns show the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) – the rate that if applied each year would get you from the starting to ending numbers. Crudely, an “average” annual gain. • The classic line applies: “past performance is not a guarantee of future results” Sources: • Real estate numbers from Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats,” using average prices from all Q2 transactions (Apr-Jun). The “All Real Estate” figure is essentially a portfolio of all houses and condos from Etobicoke to Scarborough that were bought and sold through the TREB MLS® System during the quarter, much like the stock indexes are a portfolio of major stocks. • TSX/S&P and S&P 500 numbers from Yahoo Finance using June 30 closing figures • MSCI World Index from MSCI website in Canadian dollars using June 30 closing figures
  • 3. 12.4% 15.5% 15.7% 13.4% 12.0% 1 YR. 2 YR. 3 YR. 4 YR. 11.3% 7.9% 2.1% 0.1% 5.8% S&P 500 15.5% 8.4% 7.3% 10.8% * 1st * * 18.2% 9.3% 2nd 2nd 2nd World Index Toronto RE vs. Markets Recent Returns Q2 2017 Toronto real estate has outperformed the TSX in recent years, and ranks well versus other major market indexes.
  • 4. 6.1% 5.2% 9.8% 7.8% 7.4% 5 YR. 10 YR. 15 YR. 20 YR. 6.9% 5.5% 0.9% 5.2% 4.4% S&P 500 12.2% 4.9% 6.2% 5.2% * 1st 16.9% 6.1% 3rd World Index Toronto RE vs. Markets Long Term Returns Q2 2017 Toronto RE outperformed all indexes in all views of ten years or longer1. It topped the TSX in all 20 period lengths, the S&P 500 in 16, and the MSCI in 11. 1st 1. Except in the 14-year view where MSCI was 7.58% and Toronto real estate was 7.54% 1st
  • 5. 1 YR. 2 YR. 3 YR. 4 YR. Toronto Real Estate Recent Returns Q2 2017 Q2 detached house price softening has allowed condo apts to overtake detached in the 1 year view. However, all longer views belong to detached houses (due to supply constraints). “All types” includes attached houses, condo townhouses, and “other” on top of detached houses and condo apartments. 15.7% 13.4% 12.0% 11.3% ALL TYPES 18.4% 18.3% 16.8% 14.9%⌂ 27.9% 16.7% 13.0% 11.0% DETACHED HOUSES CONDO APTS. 30% 51% The above two segments accounted for 81% of Toronto transactions in 2016.
  • 6. Detached housing has outperformed condos across all long term periods. The “All types” growth is affected by a changing mix as > 200K condos units have been added to the GTA housing supply in the past 20 years: Condo apts (least expensive type) were 27% of transactions in 1996 but were 51% in 2016. Detached houses (most expensive) have fallen from 47% to 30% in that time. 5 YR. 10 YR. 15 YR. 20 YR. Toronto Real Estate Long Term Returns Q2 2017 9.8% 7.8% 7.4% 6.9% ALL TYPES 12.9% 9.8% 9.0% 8.4%⌂ 9.3% 7.5% 6.6% 6.8% DETACHED HOUSES CONDO APTS. All types includes attached houses, condo townhouses, and “other” on top of detached houses and condo apartments.
  • 7. $121K $259K $334K 1 YR. increase 3 YR. increase 5 YR. increase 10 YR. increase $473K 233K 560K 686K 911K⌂ 124K 174K 203K 292K Current avg. price $897K $1504K $567K Highest ever single year Q2 increases for all 3 Buyers paying at least $22K extra in land transfer taxes (Ontario + Toronto) on this increase – and that can’t be put on a mortgage $233K detached increase was same as avg price of Toronto property in 1997 ($234K) Toronto Real Estate Dollar Increases Q2 2017
  • 8. -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 1-Year Returns (Q2 vs. prior Q2) S&P/TSX ALL R/E Detached Condo Apt 1-Year Returns: 20 Year History Q2 2017 ⌂12Profitable years in last 20 191919 8Years with highest return 642 10Years with lowest return 613 Most volatile Only negative was from financial market meltdown in fall of 2008
  • 9. 5-Year Average Returns Q2 2017 ⌂13Profitable 5-yr pds in last 17 171717 4Years with highest 5-year return 490 11Years with lowest 5-year return 501 RE never negative in a 5-year view Last 6 periods in a row -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 End Year Rolling 5-Year Returns ending at Q2 S&P/TSX ALL R/E Detached Condo Apt Not since 2008
  • 10. -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 End Year Rolling 10-Year Returns ending at Q2 S&P/TSX ALL R/E Detached Condo Apt 10-Year Average Returns Q2 2017 ⌂12Profitable 10-yr pds in last 12 121212 3Years with highest 10-yr return 180 7Years with lowest 10-yr return 401 Most volatile, and 7.8% spread from best to worst Real estate consistently within 5%- 8% range Last 7 in a row
  • 11. 4.4% 5.2% 0.9% 5.5% 7.9% 6.9%7.4%7.8% 9.8% 15.7% 8.4%9.0% 9.8% 12.9% 18.4% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2019181716151413121110987654321 Return period, in years, counting back from Q2 2017 Compound Annual Growth Rate, 1-20 years S&P/TSX ALL R/E Detached Condo Apt Average Annual Return Timeline Viewed from Q2 2017 Detached houses have best returns in all views except the 1-year, when condo apartments were 27.9% Lowest detached house CAGR of 8.4% are better than all TSX periods
  • 12. Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant. I take a “Moneyball” approach to real estate, believing in the importance of both the quantitative and qualitative – especially in this rapidly shifting real estate market. After having built up 20 years of trust as an accountant in Toronto's art and music communities, I now combine my analytical skills and business savvy with my hometown knowledge and passion to help people like you find their next home. I work with the venerable CENTURY 21 brand at the Regal Realty Inc. brokerage on Queen St. West. @areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram Click for more fresh statistics and insight on Toronto real estate: