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TMT Predictions 2020
Fuelling the future
1
High speed from low orbit:
connecting everyone to the world?
Deloitte Canada predicts that by the
end of 2020, there will be more than
in low-Earth orbit seeking to
offer global broadband internet,
up from roughly 200 at the end
of 2019. Satellite broadband
providers may be racing for the
new revenue opportunities, but it’s
the hundreds of millions of people
in unserved or underserved areas
who may profit the most.
#DeloittePredicts
1
700 satellites 700
200
Year 2020
Year 2019
#DeloittePredicts
1
Bringing the internet to everywhere…
Two Canadian companies are among the
seven to eight that are trying to establish
their space in space. They’ll need to move
fast to catch up with firms like SpaceX and
OneWeb, which have already launched
many low-orbit satellites and plan to
offer service in northern latitudes, such
as northern Canada and Alaska. Service
there has been slower and more
expensive than elsewhere for years.
…for the benefit of all
Many satellite broadband companies have
marketed their ability to bring broadband
internet to areas with poor or no service,
which could enable more of the world
to benefit from the educational
and economic gains of a more
connected society.
#DeloittePredicts
1
2
AI chips move closer to the edge
Deloitte Canada predicts that in 2020,
edge artificial intelligence (AI) chips will be sold.
Representing a cool US$2.6 billion in revenue,
this is more than twice the 300 million edge AI chips
Deloitte predicted would sell in 2017. That’s an impressive
three-year compound annual growth rate of 36 percent.
#DeloittePredicts
2
more than 750 million
Bringing AI power to the device...
The new generation of edge AI chips
is set to bring the capabilities of AI
directly to devices, ending dependence
on being connected. The chips will
be able to perform or accelerate
machine-learning tasks right
on the device—be it
a smartphone, robot,
or sensor—rather than
in a remote data centre.
#DeloittePredicts
2
…at a growing clip
We predict the edge AI chip market will continue to
grow much more quickly than the overall chip market.
By 2024, sales of edge AI chips may exceed 1.5 billion
unit chips, possibly by a great deal. This represents
annual unit sales growth of at least 20 percent, more
than double the longer-term forecast of 9 percent
CAGR for the overall semiconductor industry.
#DeloittePredicts
2
3
Private 5G networks: Enterprise untethered
Deloitte Canada predicts that
worldwide will have begun testing private 5G deployments
by the end of 2020, collectively investing a few hundred
million dollars. Spend will continue to climb sharply.
By 2024, the value of cellular mobile equipment and
services for use in private networks will add up to
tens of billions of (US) dollars annually.
#DeloittePredicts
3
more than 100 companies
Changing the game for factories,
warehouses, ports, and more…
5G’s new standards for enterprise, expected
in mid-2020, could be the most disruptive mobile
technology yet. Private 5G will introduce
new capabilities, work in metal-dense
environments, be more secure, more
resilient, and even save money.
#DeloittePredicts
3
…and reshaping how industry does business
Hundreds of thousands of companies are likely to deploy
private 5G cellular networks over the next decade, the shape
of industry itself will alter. If and when that happens, history
will likely view 5G not just as a technological marvel, but as an
elemental force that reshaped the way companies do business.
#DeloittePredicts
3
4
My antennae are tingling:
Terrestrial TV’s surprising staying power
Deloitte Canada predicts
that in 2020, at least
worldwide—about 450 million households—
will watch at least some of their TV via antenna.
Eight percent of Canadians watch at least
some of their TV over the air—which is widely
available, convenient, and free in this country—
frequently complemented with streamed
video on demand services like Netflix.
#DeloittePredicts
1.6 billion people
4
Time spent watching TV keeps on slipping…
Antenna TV’s resilience is a bright spot in the overall
traditional TV landscape. We expect TV viewing minutes
in 2020 to decrease by 5 percent in the United States,
with similar trends in Canada, Sweden, New Zealand,
and Singapore, and other countries.
#DeloittePredicts
4
…But TV ad revenue keeps on climbing
Advertising in TV isn’t declining the way it is in some
other traditional media. In fact, we expect global TV ad
revenues will grow in dollar terms—but not share in
the total ad market—­­­by more than US$4 billion in 2020,
reaching US$185 billion in 2021.
4
#DeloittePredicts
Excuse me, is that an ad in your video service?
5
Deloitte Canada predicts
that revenue from
ad-supported video services
will reach an estimated
China, India, and the Asia-Pacific
region (“Asia,” for short) will account
for US$15.5 billion—almost half
the total.
5
#DeloittePredicts
US$32 billionin 2020.
An Asian craze so far…
Thanks to recent advances that have made
4G connectivity and smartphone affordable,
in Asia alone are now watching TV shows, full-length
movies, and live sports. Ads are helping make this
affordable: consumers exchange their attention
for free, or lower-cost, video content.
#DeloittePredicts
over one billion people
5
…will it catch in North America?
In North America, most direct-to-consumer video offerings
have pursued the ad-free subscription model, which has
worked because many people don’t like ads. But not
everybody finds them intolerable, especially when they can
save US$60 per year. Ad-supported video services might be
able to woo them away with a greater variety of content in one
place. In fact, we expect this market will grow to just under
US$10 billion, up almost 60 percent from 2018—a higher
growth rate than in any other region.
#DeloittePredicts
5
6
Tour de Tech: Innovations promote pedal power
Deloitte Canada predicts that
more bicycle commuting trips a year
will take place in 2022 than in 2019,
a one-percentage point rise in the
proportion of people who bike to work.
One percent may not seem like
much, but billions more bike
trips per year means billions
fewer car trips—and less
congestion, cleaner air,
and healthier people.
#DeloittePredicts
tens of billions
6
Tech is making bicycling easier and safer…
Technological innovations—lithium-ion batteries being the
most important, but also predictive analytics, product and
application design, and wireless connectivity—are making
cycling safer, faster, more convenient for users, and easier
for bike-sharing providers to track and measure. These bike-
sharing platforms are encouraging residents to make trips
without having to commit to buying, maintaining, and
securing their own two wheels.
#DeloittePredicts
6
…and may entice more Canadians to pedal
Only about 1 percent of the total workforce in Canada
of about 16 million*
commutes by bike. Victoria led with
6.6 percent*
of citizens who biked to work in 2016, but
Montreal set the example: despite cold, icy winters, and hilly
terrain, especially near the city core, 2 percent*
(3.6 percent
in the city itself**
) regularly biked to the office the same year.
The technology advances may help raise those numbers.
#DeloittePredictsStatistics Canada, 2016 census, *metropolitan area/**city
6
7
Accessorize this: Smartphone extras will be huge
Deloitte Canada predicts that apps,
games, accessories, and ancillary devices
for smartphones will drive US$459 billion
of revenue in 2020 alone, a 15 percent
over 2019. With smartphone sales in
2020 expected to reach US$484 billion,
the entire smartphone ecosystem will
be worth nearly US$1 trillion.
#DeloittePredicts
(US$58 billion) increase
7
Extras keep growing and growing…
What’s more, we expect the smartphone “adjacent” market
to grow at between 5 to 10 percent annually for the next
few years. This means that by 2023, the accessory market will be
bigger than the smartphone market itself.
#DeloittePredicts
7
…Canadians will do their thang
Wired earphones, phone cases, screen protectors,
and memory cards are the hottest items in Canada.
Who’s buying more? Little surprise: 18-to 24-year-olds, who
have about eight accessories on average compared to about
four each for the 65-to 75-year-old set. That’s because young
people are much more likely to watch a great many short
videos and listen to music daily than older Canadians.
#DeloittePredicts
7
8
The professional services robots are coming—
to everywhere
Deloitte Canada predicts that of the almost
expected to be sold for enterprise use in 2020,
just over half will be professional service units
(versatile, cart-like robots). With growth being
fuelled by new developments in 5G and AI chips,
we predict these robots will generate more than
US$16 billion in revenue—30 percent more than
in 2019. They will likely surpass industrial robots
(the kind with arms) in revenue in 2022.
#DeloittePredicts
one million robots
8
Canada’s bullish on pro robots…
At 172, the density of robots in the
manufacturing industry in Canada in
2018 was above the world average
of 99 robots per 10,000 employees.
The United States registered 217, not
much higher. But Singapore (831) and
South Korea (774) towered above all
other nations.
#DeloittePredicts
8
Robots installed
per 10,000 employees
Singapore
Rep.ofKorea
UnitedStates
Canada
831
774
217
172
World average: 99
Source: World Robotics 2019
…and holding its own in industrial robots
The dominant consumer by far of industrial robots
in 2018 was China, which installed 154,000 units (the next
closest was Japan, with 55,000). But Canada still made
the list of the world’s 15 largest markets by adding
#DeloittePredicts
3,600 industrial robots.
8
9
The ears have it: The rise of audiobooks
and podcasting
Deloitte Canada predicts the global
audiobook market will grow in 2020 by
#DeloittePredicts
25 percent, to US$3.5 billion.
9
We also predict the global
podcasting market will
increase by 30 percent to
reach US$1.1 billion in 2020.
Listen to this demographic…
The results of a Deloitte survey of more than 1,000 adults
in each of Canada and the United States in 2018 suggest
that audiobook and podcast listeners skew toward being
younger, more educated, and employed—all attributes
that make them an attractive customer base.
#DeloittePredicts
9
…who are listening regularly
Of the 21 percent of adult Americans
who listen to podcasts, most are doing
so regularly—38 percent reported
listening daily or almost daily, 66 percent
at least once a week, and 87 percent
at least monthly. The proportions of
both audiobook and podcast listeners
in Canada were about two to three
percentage points lower across groups,
although the overall distribution
was similar.
#DeloittePredicts
9
38%
66%
87%
21%
10
Delivery networks toil to meet
insatiable appetite for video
Deloitte Canada predicts that the global content delivery
network (CDN) market will reach US$14 billion in 2020,
from 2019’s estimated US$11 billion. We also predict the
market will more than double—to US$30 billion—by 2025.
#DeloittePredicts
10
up more than 25 percent
The internet’s workhorses are being run hard…
Designed to improve media quality, speed, and reliability by
bringing the content physically closer to the user, CDNs played a
critical role in the internet’s expansion and evolution. The continued
growth of this market is being driven primarily by consumers’
ever-increasing demand for video over the internet, live video
streaming, and the emergence of streaming video games.
#DeloittePredicts
10
…and the race is only getting more heated
CDNs are expected to carry 72 percent of all internet traffic by 2022,
up from 56 percent in 2017. Particularly popular will be live video
streaming, which supports real-time events like concerts and sports
games, and social streaming services that let anyone stream video—
and they do. By 2024, live streaming is expected to account for as
much as 238 out of 453 exabytes of CDN video traffic.
#DeloittePredicts
10
To learn more,
please contact us
Duncan Stewart
Director of Research, TMT
Deloitte Canada
416-874-3536
dunstewart@deloitte.ca
www.deloitte.ca
Deloitte provides audit & assurance, consulting, financial advisory, risk advisory, tax and related services to public and
private clients spanning multiple industries. Deloitte serves four out of five Fortune Global 500®
companies through a globally
connected network of member firms in more than 150 countries and territories bringing world-class capabilities, insights
and service to address clients’ most complex business challenges. To learn more about how Deloitte’s approximately 264,000
professionals—14,000 of whom are part of the Canadian firm—make an impact that matters, please connect with us on
LinkedIn, Twitter or Facebook.
Deloitte LLP, an Ontario limited liability partnership, is the Canadian member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.
Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its
network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/about
for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms.
© Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Designed and produced by the Deloitte Design Studio, Canada. 19-6490T

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TMT Predictions 2020 Final

  • 2. 1 High speed from low orbit: connecting everyone to the world?
  • 3. Deloitte Canada predicts that by the end of 2020, there will be more than in low-Earth orbit seeking to offer global broadband internet, up from roughly 200 at the end of 2019. Satellite broadband providers may be racing for the new revenue opportunities, but it’s the hundreds of millions of people in unserved or underserved areas who may profit the most. #DeloittePredicts 1 700 satellites 700 200 Year 2020 Year 2019
  • 4. #DeloittePredicts 1 Bringing the internet to everywhere… Two Canadian companies are among the seven to eight that are trying to establish their space in space. They’ll need to move fast to catch up with firms like SpaceX and OneWeb, which have already launched many low-orbit satellites and plan to offer service in northern latitudes, such as northern Canada and Alaska. Service there has been slower and more expensive than elsewhere for years.
  • 5. …for the benefit of all Many satellite broadband companies have marketed their ability to bring broadband internet to areas with poor or no service, which could enable more of the world to benefit from the educational and economic gains of a more connected society. #DeloittePredicts 1
  • 6. 2 AI chips move closer to the edge
  • 7. Deloitte Canada predicts that in 2020, edge artificial intelligence (AI) chips will be sold. Representing a cool US$2.6 billion in revenue, this is more than twice the 300 million edge AI chips Deloitte predicted would sell in 2017. That’s an impressive three-year compound annual growth rate of 36 percent. #DeloittePredicts 2 more than 750 million
  • 8. Bringing AI power to the device... The new generation of edge AI chips is set to bring the capabilities of AI directly to devices, ending dependence on being connected. The chips will be able to perform or accelerate machine-learning tasks right on the device—be it a smartphone, robot, or sensor—rather than in a remote data centre. #DeloittePredicts 2
  • 9. …at a growing clip We predict the edge AI chip market will continue to grow much more quickly than the overall chip market. By 2024, sales of edge AI chips may exceed 1.5 billion unit chips, possibly by a great deal. This represents annual unit sales growth of at least 20 percent, more than double the longer-term forecast of 9 percent CAGR for the overall semiconductor industry. #DeloittePredicts 2
  • 10. 3 Private 5G networks: Enterprise untethered
  • 11. Deloitte Canada predicts that worldwide will have begun testing private 5G deployments by the end of 2020, collectively investing a few hundred million dollars. Spend will continue to climb sharply. By 2024, the value of cellular mobile equipment and services for use in private networks will add up to tens of billions of (US) dollars annually. #DeloittePredicts 3 more than 100 companies
  • 12. Changing the game for factories, warehouses, ports, and more… 5G’s new standards for enterprise, expected in mid-2020, could be the most disruptive mobile technology yet. Private 5G will introduce new capabilities, work in metal-dense environments, be more secure, more resilient, and even save money. #DeloittePredicts 3
  • 13. …and reshaping how industry does business Hundreds of thousands of companies are likely to deploy private 5G cellular networks over the next decade, the shape of industry itself will alter. If and when that happens, history will likely view 5G not just as a technological marvel, but as an elemental force that reshaped the way companies do business. #DeloittePredicts 3
  • 14. 4 My antennae are tingling: Terrestrial TV’s surprising staying power
  • 15. Deloitte Canada predicts that in 2020, at least worldwide—about 450 million households— will watch at least some of their TV via antenna. Eight percent of Canadians watch at least some of their TV over the air—which is widely available, convenient, and free in this country— frequently complemented with streamed video on demand services like Netflix. #DeloittePredicts 1.6 billion people 4
  • 16. Time spent watching TV keeps on slipping… Antenna TV’s resilience is a bright spot in the overall traditional TV landscape. We expect TV viewing minutes in 2020 to decrease by 5 percent in the United States, with similar trends in Canada, Sweden, New Zealand, and Singapore, and other countries. #DeloittePredicts 4
  • 17. …But TV ad revenue keeps on climbing Advertising in TV isn’t declining the way it is in some other traditional media. In fact, we expect global TV ad revenues will grow in dollar terms—but not share in the total ad market—­­­by more than US$4 billion in 2020, reaching US$185 billion in 2021. 4 #DeloittePredicts
  • 18. Excuse me, is that an ad in your video service? 5
  • 19. Deloitte Canada predicts that revenue from ad-supported video services will reach an estimated China, India, and the Asia-Pacific region (“Asia,” for short) will account for US$15.5 billion—almost half the total. 5 #DeloittePredicts US$32 billionin 2020.
  • 20. An Asian craze so far… Thanks to recent advances that have made 4G connectivity and smartphone affordable, in Asia alone are now watching TV shows, full-length movies, and live sports. Ads are helping make this affordable: consumers exchange their attention for free, or lower-cost, video content. #DeloittePredicts over one billion people 5
  • 21. …will it catch in North America? In North America, most direct-to-consumer video offerings have pursued the ad-free subscription model, which has worked because many people don’t like ads. But not everybody finds them intolerable, especially when they can save US$60 per year. Ad-supported video services might be able to woo them away with a greater variety of content in one place. In fact, we expect this market will grow to just under US$10 billion, up almost 60 percent from 2018—a higher growth rate than in any other region. #DeloittePredicts 5
  • 22. 6 Tour de Tech: Innovations promote pedal power
  • 23. Deloitte Canada predicts that more bicycle commuting trips a year will take place in 2022 than in 2019, a one-percentage point rise in the proportion of people who bike to work. One percent may not seem like much, but billions more bike trips per year means billions fewer car trips—and less congestion, cleaner air, and healthier people. #DeloittePredicts tens of billions 6
  • 24. Tech is making bicycling easier and safer… Technological innovations—lithium-ion batteries being the most important, but also predictive analytics, product and application design, and wireless connectivity—are making cycling safer, faster, more convenient for users, and easier for bike-sharing providers to track and measure. These bike- sharing platforms are encouraging residents to make trips without having to commit to buying, maintaining, and securing their own two wheels. #DeloittePredicts 6
  • 25. …and may entice more Canadians to pedal Only about 1 percent of the total workforce in Canada of about 16 million* commutes by bike. Victoria led with 6.6 percent* of citizens who biked to work in 2016, but Montreal set the example: despite cold, icy winters, and hilly terrain, especially near the city core, 2 percent* (3.6 percent in the city itself** ) regularly biked to the office the same year. The technology advances may help raise those numbers. #DeloittePredictsStatistics Canada, 2016 census, *metropolitan area/**city 6
  • 26. 7 Accessorize this: Smartphone extras will be huge
  • 27. Deloitte Canada predicts that apps, games, accessories, and ancillary devices for smartphones will drive US$459 billion of revenue in 2020 alone, a 15 percent over 2019. With smartphone sales in 2020 expected to reach US$484 billion, the entire smartphone ecosystem will be worth nearly US$1 trillion. #DeloittePredicts (US$58 billion) increase 7
  • 28. Extras keep growing and growing… What’s more, we expect the smartphone “adjacent” market to grow at between 5 to 10 percent annually for the next few years. This means that by 2023, the accessory market will be bigger than the smartphone market itself. #DeloittePredicts 7
  • 29. …Canadians will do their thang Wired earphones, phone cases, screen protectors, and memory cards are the hottest items in Canada. Who’s buying more? Little surprise: 18-to 24-year-olds, who have about eight accessories on average compared to about four each for the 65-to 75-year-old set. That’s because young people are much more likely to watch a great many short videos and listen to music daily than older Canadians. #DeloittePredicts 7
  • 30. 8 The professional services robots are coming— to everywhere
  • 31. Deloitte Canada predicts that of the almost expected to be sold for enterprise use in 2020, just over half will be professional service units (versatile, cart-like robots). With growth being fuelled by new developments in 5G and AI chips, we predict these robots will generate more than US$16 billion in revenue—30 percent more than in 2019. They will likely surpass industrial robots (the kind with arms) in revenue in 2022. #DeloittePredicts one million robots 8
  • 32. Canada’s bullish on pro robots… At 172, the density of robots in the manufacturing industry in Canada in 2018 was above the world average of 99 robots per 10,000 employees. The United States registered 217, not much higher. But Singapore (831) and South Korea (774) towered above all other nations. #DeloittePredicts 8 Robots installed per 10,000 employees Singapore Rep.ofKorea UnitedStates Canada 831 774 217 172 World average: 99 Source: World Robotics 2019
  • 33. …and holding its own in industrial robots The dominant consumer by far of industrial robots in 2018 was China, which installed 154,000 units (the next closest was Japan, with 55,000). But Canada still made the list of the world’s 15 largest markets by adding #DeloittePredicts 3,600 industrial robots. 8
  • 34. 9 The ears have it: The rise of audiobooks and podcasting
  • 35. Deloitte Canada predicts the global audiobook market will grow in 2020 by #DeloittePredicts 25 percent, to US$3.5 billion. 9 We also predict the global podcasting market will increase by 30 percent to reach US$1.1 billion in 2020.
  • 36. Listen to this demographic… The results of a Deloitte survey of more than 1,000 adults in each of Canada and the United States in 2018 suggest that audiobook and podcast listeners skew toward being younger, more educated, and employed—all attributes that make them an attractive customer base. #DeloittePredicts 9
  • 37. …who are listening regularly Of the 21 percent of adult Americans who listen to podcasts, most are doing so regularly—38 percent reported listening daily or almost daily, 66 percent at least once a week, and 87 percent at least monthly. The proportions of both audiobook and podcast listeners in Canada were about two to three percentage points lower across groups, although the overall distribution was similar. #DeloittePredicts 9 38% 66% 87% 21%
  • 38. 10 Delivery networks toil to meet insatiable appetite for video
  • 39. Deloitte Canada predicts that the global content delivery network (CDN) market will reach US$14 billion in 2020, from 2019’s estimated US$11 billion. We also predict the market will more than double—to US$30 billion—by 2025. #DeloittePredicts 10 up more than 25 percent
  • 40. The internet’s workhorses are being run hard… Designed to improve media quality, speed, and reliability by bringing the content physically closer to the user, CDNs played a critical role in the internet’s expansion and evolution. The continued growth of this market is being driven primarily by consumers’ ever-increasing demand for video over the internet, live video streaming, and the emergence of streaming video games. #DeloittePredicts 10
  • 41. …and the race is only getting more heated CDNs are expected to carry 72 percent of all internet traffic by 2022, up from 56 percent in 2017. Particularly popular will be live video streaming, which supports real-time events like concerts and sports games, and social streaming services that let anyone stream video— and they do. By 2024, live streaming is expected to account for as much as 238 out of 453 exabytes of CDN video traffic. #DeloittePredicts 10
  • 42. To learn more, please contact us Duncan Stewart Director of Research, TMT Deloitte Canada 416-874-3536 dunstewart@deloitte.ca
  • 43. www.deloitte.ca Deloitte provides audit & assurance, consulting, financial advisory, risk advisory, tax and related services to public and private clients spanning multiple industries. Deloitte serves four out of five Fortune Global 500® companies through a globally connected network of member firms in more than 150 countries and territories bringing world-class capabilities, insights and service to address clients’ most complex business challenges. To learn more about how Deloitte’s approximately 264,000 professionals—14,000 of whom are part of the Canadian firm—make an impact that matters, please connect with us on LinkedIn, Twitter or Facebook. Deloitte LLP, an Ontario limited liability partnership, is the Canadian member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited. Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms. © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. Designed and produced by the Deloitte Design Studio, Canada. 19-6490T