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The Two-Tiered SERP
SearchLove London 2018
Ranking for the Most Competitive Terms
@THCapper
The Dreaded Conversation
@THCapper
What are your views on Brexit?
Douvres, Brexit, par Banksy (2017) by Paul Bissegger is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0
Why aren’t we first for
{head term}
?!
- your boss, every week
@THCapper@THCapper
@THCapper@THCapper
@THCapper
I was missing something
@THCapper
@THCapper@THCapper
https://www.slideshare.net/THCapper/does-google-still-need-link
s-searchlove-san-diego-2017
@THCapper
https://www.slideshare.net/THCapper/does-google-still-need-link
s-searchlove-san-diego-2017 @THCapper
Yes,
it does
@THCapper
I had part of the answer
@THCapper
At the competitive, data-rich top
end, links mean increasingly little
Me, February 2017
@THCapper@THCapper
Strength of correlation:
Domain Authority & Rankings
February 2017 October 2018
0.07
0.02
SEO in 2018 is winning at user
testing, brand awareness, and
perception
Me, February 2017
@THCapper
I was still wrong
@THCapper
@THCapper
What if:
Head terms are no longer
about ranking factors
?
@THCapper
@THCapper
The
Two-Tiered
SERP
@THCapper
Ranking
Factors
Not Ranking
Factors?
@THCapper
Evidence
Explanation
Implications
@THCapper
Agenda
Back to basics:
Why might a site rank well?
@THCapper
Google is changing
(it’s a cliché)
@THCapper
Google in 2017:
31,584 experiments
2,453 search changes
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/google-tests-changes-to-its-search-algorithm-how-search-works.html
@THCapperhttps://moz.com/blog/seo-back-to-basics
@THCapper
Why is that site outranking me?
Basic technical
@THCapper
● Is it Flash?
● Is there duplicate content?
● Is it noindex?
@THCapper
@THCapper
Why is that site outranking me?
Basic technical Targeting
@THCapper
● Is the keyword in the title?
● Is the H1 relevant?
● Is there some copy?
@THCapper
@THCapper
Why is that site outranking me?
Basic technical
Links
Targeting
@THCapper
● Is it linked to internally?
● Is this domain comparable to
competitors?
● Is this spammy?
@THCapper
@THCapper
Why is that site outranking me?
Basic technical
Links
Targeting
Hygiene factors
@THCapper
● Is it mobile friendly?
● Is it fast?
● Is it keyword-stuffed?
@THCapper
@THCapper
2004 Reasonable surfer
2011 Panda
2012 Penguin
2014 Pigeon
2015 Mobilegeddon
@THCapper
@THCapper
Building on the old model
@THCapper
@THCapper
https://www.slideshare.net/DistilledSEO/searchlove-london-2016-tom-anthony-s
eo-splittesting-how-you-can-run-tests-and-what-weve-learned
@THCapper
You sucked
@THCapper
@THCapper@THCapper
https://www.slideshare.net/DistilledSEO/searchlove-london-2016-tom-anthony-s
eo-splittesting-how-you-can-run-tests-and-what-weve-learned
@THCapper
I scored 0%
@THCapper
@THCapper
I scored 0%
...repeatedly
@THCapper
I’m a frog
&
Google is a saucepan
@THCapper
We are asking the wrong questions
Basic technical
Links
Targeting
Hygiene factors
Evidence
@THCapper@THCapper
https://www.slideshare.net/THCapper/does-google-still-need-link
s-searchlove-san-diego-2017
@THCapper@THCapperhttps://www.slideshare.net/THCapper/does-google-still-need-link
s-searchlove-san-diego-2017
@THCapper
Strength of correlation:
Domain Authority & Rankings
May 2015
(Moz)
February 2017
(Me)
0.07
0.26
@THCapper
Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT
@THCapper
Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT
Top 50 results Top 10 results
@THCapper
Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT
Top 50 results Top 10 results
Desktop only (?) Desktop & Smartphone
@THCapper
Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT
Top 50 results Top 10 results
Desktop only (?) Desktop & Smartphone
May 2015 Feb 2017, Oct 2018
@THCapper
Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT
Top 50 results Top 10 results
Desktop only (?) Desktop & Smartphone
May 2015 Feb 2017, Oct 2018
Mean Spearman correlations Mean Spearman correlations
@THCapper
Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT
Top 50 results Top 10 results
Desktop only (?) Desktop & Smartphone
May 2015 Feb 2017, Oct 2018
Mean Spearman correlations Mean Spearman correlations
@THCapper
Links are less important
in the top 10?
@THCapper
@THCapper
I need a fairer comparison
@THCapper
@THCapper
Hypothesis:
The higher you rank,
the less “ranking factors” matter
@THCapper
@THCapper
Prediction:
We’ll see a weaker
DA & ranking correlation
in positions 1-5
@THCapper
@THCapper@THCapper
Strength of correlation:
Domain Authority & Rankings
May 2015
(Moz)
February 2017
(Me)
0.070
0.260
0.023
October 2018
(Me)
@THCapper@THCapper
0.011
6-10
@THCapper@THCapper
1-5
0.001
0.011
6-10
@THCapper
Hypothesis:
The higher you rank,
the less “ranking factors” matter
@THCapper
@THCapper
Hypothesis:
The higher you rank,
the less “ranking factors” matter
@THCapper
@THCapper
Caveat:
We only looked
at one factor
@THCapper
@THCapper@THCapper
Caveat:
We lack a control
@THCapper@THCapperhttps://moz.com/blog/seo-ranking-factors-and-correlation
@THCapper
Theory:
Head terms are no longer
about ranking factors
@THCapper
@THCapper@THCapper
Evidence:
1. Links less relevant in the top 5
@THCapper@THCapper
@THCapper
Site DA
1 Interflora 53
2 Flying Flowers 46
3 M&S 82
4 Serenata 56
5 NextFlowers 40
6 eFlorist 44
7 & 8 WaitroseFlorist 42
9 Appleyard 44
Rankings 2 weeks before Mother’s Day
@THCapper
Site DA BSV
1 Interflora 53 212,000
2 Flying Flowers 46 24,000
3 M&S 82 3,060,000
4 Serenata 56 5,000
5 NextFlowers 40 4,850,000
6 eFlorist 44 16,000
7 & 8 WaitroseFlorist 42 924,000
9 Appleyard 44 1,700
Rankings 2 weeks before Mother’s Day
@THCapper
Site DA BSV Specialist?
1 Interflora 53 212,000 Yes
2 Flying Flowers 46 24,000 Yes
3 M&S 82 3,060,000 No
4 Serenata 56 5,000 Yes
5 NextFlowers 40 4,850,000 Ish
6 eFlorist 44 16,000 Yes
7 & 8 WaitroseFlorist 42 924,000 Ish
9 Appleyard 44 1,700 Yes
Rankings 2 weeks before Mother’s Day
@THCapper
Nice rankings...
shame if something
happened to them.
@THCapper
@THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
@THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
@THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
@THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
@THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
@THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
@THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
@THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
@THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
@THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
@THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
@THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
@THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
@THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
@THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
@THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
@THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
Offline brands:
Doing pretty well
@THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
Offline brands:
Doing pretty well
@THCapper
Eflorist & Serenata:
Strong domains you never heard of, the “SEO” winners
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
@THCapper
Why is that site outranking me?
Basic technical
Links
Targeting
Hygiene factors
@THCapper
Flying Flowers & Appleyard
Small brands, small domains, clung on
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
@THCapper
Flying Flowers & Appleyard
Small brands, small domains, clung on
@THCapper
Flying Flowers & Appleyard
Small brands, small domains, clung on
@THCapper
Flying Flowers & Appleyard
Small brands, small domains, clung on
@THCapper
Flying Flowers & Appleyard
Small brands, small domains, clung on
@THCapper
Flying Flowers & Appleyard
Small brands, small domains, clung on
@THCapper
Flying Flowers & Appleyard
Small brands, small domains, clung on
@THCapper
Flying Flowers & Appleyard
Small brands, small domains, clung on
@THCapper
Flying Flowers
Simple, price-orientated, emphasis on free delivery
@THCapper
Site DA BSV Specialist? Change
WaitroseFlorist 42 924,000 Ish +7
M&S 82 3,060,000 No +4
Winners
@THCapper
Losers
Site DA BSV Specialist? Change
eFlorist 44 16,000 Yes -5
Serenata 56 5,000 Yes -16
@THCapper
Hangers on
Site DA BSV Specialist? Change
Interflora 53 212,000 Yes -2
Flying Flowers 46 24,000 Yes -2
NextFlowers 40 4,850,000 Ish 0
Appleyard 44 1,700 Yes 0
@THCapper@THCapper
Theory:
Head terms are no longer
about ranking factors
@THCapper@THCapper
Evidence:
1. Links less relevant in the top 5
2. SERPs change when they
become high volume
@THCapper
Intent
@THCapper
@THCapper
Medic update: Winners
Site Visibility
NHS +4.6%
WebMB +6.5%
Healthline +3.5%
Bupa +4.9%
Cosmopolitan +4.6%
Elle +3.6%
@THCapper
Medic update: Winners
Site Visibility
NHS +4.6%
WebMB +6.5%
Healthline +3.5%
Bupa +4.9%
Cosmopolitan +4.6%
Elle +3.6%
@THCapper
Medic update: Winners
Site Visibility
NHS +4.6%
WebMB +6.5%
Healthline +3.5%
Bupa +4.9%
Cosmopolitan +4.6%
Elle +3.6%
@THCapper
Medic update: Winners
Site Visibility
NHS +4.6%
WebMB +6.5%
Healthline +3.5%
Bupa +4.9%
Cosmopolitan +4.6%
Elle +3.6%
@THCapper
-20% traffic
@THCapper
Revenue impact?
@THCapper@THCapper
Theory:
Head terms are no longer
about ranking factors
@THCapper@THCapper
Evidence:
1. Links less relevant in the top 5
2. SERPs change when they
become high volume
3. Google is re-assessing intents
for established keywords
Explanation
@THCapper
Why is this
happening?
@THCapper
@THCapper
Let’s practice
some empathy
@THCapper
“what percent of users clicked
through a picture-link and then
quickly clicked back”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/google-tests-changes-to-its-search-algorithm-how-search-works.html
@THCapper@THCapper
KPI 1: Pogo-stick rate
“whether there was a significant
increase in the time until they made
their first interaction”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/google-tests-changes-to-its-search-algorithm-how-search-works.html
@THCapper@THCapper
KPI 1:
KPI 2:
Pogo-stick rate
Time to SERP interaction
@THCapper@THCapper
Do links get you this?
KPI 1:
KPI 2:
Pogo-stick rate
Time to SERP interaction
@THCapper
Reminder: Links are a proxy
for popularity & trust
@THCapper
@THCapper
Potential factors:
- Price
- Aesthetics
- Short-sighted interstitials
@THCapper
What should you do about it?
Don’t tweet this:
@THCapper
The fundamentals still work
@THCapper
“Online”
@THCapper
@THCapper@THCapper
Removed “online”
Added back
“online”
@THCapper
Optimise for
Google’s metrics
@THCapper
@THCapper@THCapper
KPI 1:
KPI 2:
Pogo-stick rate
Time to SERP interaction
@THCapper
What impacts
pogo sticking?
@THCapper
@THCapper
https://youtu.be/At51X-aZ4Y4
First Impressions
@THCapper
Price
@THCapper
Pop-ups
@THCapper
Pagespeed
https://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/feature/mobile/
@THCapper@THCapper
KPI 1:
KPI 2:
Pogo-stick rate
Time to SERP interaction
@THCapper
What impacts SERP
behaviour?
@THCapper
@THCapper
MetaData
@THCapper
Brand
@THCapper
“But I can’t do anything
about brand”
@THCapper
@THCapper
@THCapper
@THCapper
Or just run ads!
@THCapper
@THCapper
What about existing
customers?
@THCapper
@THCapper
Don’t piss people off
@THCapper
@THCapper@THCapper
@THCapper
“How can a chicken shop measure brand?”
● Branded search
● Social following
● Survey data
https://www.distilled.net/resources/measuring-brand-awareness/
@THCapper
What about intent?
@THCapper
@THCapper
Be ready
@THCapper
@THCapper@THCapper
What have we learnt?
@THCapper@THCapper
Takeaways:
1. The game has changed
2. Inherit Google’s KPIs
3. But don’t abandon the
foundations just yet
Thank You

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