SlideShare a Scribd company logo
@ShahinKhan
©2020 OrionX.net 1
OrionX.net
QuantumIoT
5G Blockchain
AI / HPC
Industry Analysis•Market Execution•Demand Generation
@ShahinKhan
HPC-AI Advisory Council
Stanford Conference
April, 2020
Shahin.Khan@OrionX.net
The Top-5 Technologies
All Organizations Must Understand
@ShahinKhan
ª The Industrial revolution
changed most aspects of life
ª The Information Revolution is
just starting
ª This is why we are seeing so
many big trends at the same
time
ª It’s too many buzzwords but
understanding them in one place
is mandatory
©2020 OrionX.net 3
Revolutions Change Things
@ShahinKhan
Enterprise as a System Opportunity and Threat
The Future
©2020 OrionX.net 4
Digital Transformation
QuantumIoT
5G Blockchain
AI / HPC
@ShahinKhan@ShahinKhan
The opportunity is incredibly rewarding.
New markets. New business models.
e.g. Nvidia
The threat is unmistakably existential.
New competition. New customer needs.
e.g. many!
Why should you care?
@ShahinKhan
@ShahinKhan
Data
Interpretation
Policy
Extraction
–
Digitization
Processing
–
IT Systems
Interpretation
–
HPC
©2020 OrionX.net 6
@ShahinKhan
Sources of data
7
Organizations
People
Systems
Things
Structured
Data
Extracting
Information
Content
Apps
©2020 OrionX.net
©2020 OrionX.net
@ShahinKhan
Everything is Smart
ª Embedded, Mobile, Cloud
ª Scale, Reliability, Speed, Ease of use, Environmentals, Cost
ª Attack surface
ª Lots of protocols
– LPWAN, Zigbee, SigFox, LoRa, 3G-4G-5G, BLE, WiFi, OpenRAN, etc.
IoT
©2020 OrionX.net 8
Event Control
Trigger Command
Insight Policy
Business Objectives
Level-0: Devices
Level-2: Intelligence
E d g e
G l o b a l
L o c a l
M2M
Switch
Router
Sensors
Lake
Gateway
Level-1.x: Local Treatment
Cloud
Mobile
Embedded
©2020 OrionX.net
@ShahinKhan
Data is the new oil
IoT
Big picture
©2020 OrionX.net 9
Atoms – Things
Bits – Information
Physical Twin
Digital Twin
Data Economy
Data Sources
GovernanceApplicationsDataDevices
Data Supplies Data Product Data Market
Security
{Device, Mobile} to Cloud Cloud to {Insight, Control, Commerce}
©2020 OrionX.net
@ShahinKhan
Everything is Connected
ª Big next-generation standard, hot global topic
ª Two different similar 5G standards
– 3GPP
– IMT-2020
ª Buzzwords (Service Classes)
– eMBB (enhanced Mobile BroadBand)
– URLLC (Ultra Reliable Low Latency
Communications)
– mMTC (massive Machine Type Communications)
ª Wide spectrum
– Millimeter waves: ~30GHz-300GHz
– 200 to 950 MBytes/s have been measured
– Spectrum allocation impacts speed, etc.
5G
©2020 OrionX.net 10
ª Issues
– Suburban and rural coverage
– Access inside buildings or in snow/rain
– Lingering health concerns
ª Classes of technologies
– Handset, Tower, Picocells, Back-end Switches
– Software: Serverization, Network Function
Virtualization (NFV), Open Cellular, SDN, etc.
ª Real-looking use cases
– Tele-surgery
– Driverless cars: Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X), V2V,
V2I (Infrastructure)
– Edge Computing
– VR/AR (maybe?)
Coverage
100%
Low Power
90% less
Back-end
Robustness
Density
1mil
devices/km2
Precision
<1m
Latency
1ms
Bandwidth
20 Gbps
@ShahinKhan
Everything is Computable
Supercomputing
©2020 OrionX.net 11
New Idea
New Way
New Model
New Data
Theory
Experiment AI
Simulation
Communication
Instrumentation Visualization
Automation
Digitization Data
STEM
IT
HPCModeling
©2020 OrionX.net
©2020 OrionX.net
@ShahinKhan
Parallelism
©2020 OrionX.net 12
Concurrency
Intensity
Vector/GPU
In-Memory
ClusterReplicate Systems
Memory
Compute
Serial Parallel
Single-Node
Traditional
Models
AI
Algorithmic
©2020 OrionX.net
@ShahinKhan
Technology Options
Classical
Quantum
Digital Analog
Post Laws
Quantum Gate Quantum Annealing
Mixed Signal
Source: Radical Semiconductor and OrionX collaboration
©2020 OrionX.net 13
Concurrency
Intensity
Vector/GPU
In-Memory
ClusterReplicate Systems
Memory
Compute
Serial Parallel
Single-Node
Traditional
Models
AI
Algorithmic
©2020 OrionX.net
@ShahinKhan
App
Logic
Elasticity
Microservices
Serverless
SLA
Policy
Programmability
Control
Job Control
Workload Scripts
Network Scripts
Ticketing
Traffic
Topology
Network Services
Security
Intra-App
Communication
Apps: Containers, Automation, Fabric
©2020 OrionX.net 14
©2020 OrionX.net
@ShahinKhan
IT Transformation to Cloud: Promise, Reality, Solution
©2020 OrionX.net 15
©2020 OrionX.net
@ShahinKhan
Intelligence is Computable
AI =
High
Performance AI
©2020 OrionX.net 16
Artificial Intelligence
Search
Logical
Expert SystemStatistical
Numerical
Optimization
Big Data
Simulation / HPC Automation / IoTCloud
Big Rules of
Big Data
AIIoT
©2020 OrionX.net
©2020 OrionX.net
@ShahinKhan
ª Autonomy limited by
the precise definition
of the scope
ª Tolerance for mistakes
ª Used for good or evil?
ª Elimination of large
classes of jobs by AI
systems.
ª Darwinian mistake?
ª Asimov rules for
robots
ª Arguably a more
important parameter
than technological
advances
ª Unintended
consequences
ª System complexity can
exceed human
competence
(Grand) Challenges
Ethical ComplexityUnpredictability Legal Framework Autonomy
©2020 OrionX.net 17
@ShahinKhan
Everything is a Probability Function
ª “Overhyped and Underestimated”, Hot, and will remain hot for the next decade
ª Current state: NISQ: Noisy Intermediate Scale
ª Global push: tens of serious efforts in multiple applications
ª Used as an accelerator to classical computing, Programmability advancing
ª Buzzwords: QIS, Supremacy, Y2Q, Quantum-safe Cryptography, QML, QEC, QKD, ..
Quantum
Computing
©2020 OrionX.net 18
Qubits
Probability
Functions
Universal
QC
De-coherence
Cryogenics
Many
approaches
Lasers
Photonics
Solid State
• • •
Electron Hole
Boson Sampling
Trapped Ion
Annealing
Positronics
• • •
©2020 OrionX.net
@ShahinKhan
ª Quantum Annealing
ª Gate Model
– Trapped atom/ion
– Photonics
– Topological
ª Cryogenics
ª Decoherence, QEC
ª Quantum Volume
– Count
– Connectivity
– Fidelity
ª Entangled Photon
ª Repeaters
ª Teleportation
ª Internet
ª Older examples
– Atomic Clocks
– Magnetometers
ª Emerging uses
– Sensors that respond to
quantum stimuli
– Single-atom level
– Quantum energy levels
– Entanglement to improve
accuracy/sensitivity
Quantum Market Segments
©2020 OrionX.net 19
Computing Communications Sensing
@ShahinKhan
ª Coins/Tokens
ª Addresses
ª Cryptography
ª Wallets
ª Smart Contracts
ª Exchanges
ª Apps
ª Bitcoin digitized gold
– Mining
ª Blockchain distributed ledger
– Authenticity via computational
challenge
ª Increasing acceptance
ª Increasing use cases
ª But: legal challenges
Digital Money?
©2020 OrionX.net 20
The Satoshi Paper, Oct. ’08 Components Bitcoin
Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System
Satoshi Nakamoto
satoshin@gmx.com
www.bitcoin.org
Abstract. A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash
would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party
to another without going through a financial institution. Digital
signatures provide part of the solution, but the main benefits are
lost if a trusted third party is still required to prevent double-
spending. We propose a solution to the double-spending
problem using a peer-to-peer network. The network timestamps
transactions by hashing them into an ongoing chain of hash-
based proof-of-work, forming a record that cannot be changed
without redoing the proof-of-work. The longest chain not only
serves as proof of the sequence of events witnessed, but proof
that it came from the largest pool of CPU power. As long as a
majority of CPU power is controlled by nodes that are not
cooperating to attack the network, they'll generate the longest
chain and outpace attackers. The network itself requires
minimal structure. Messages are broadcast on a best effort
basis, and nodes can leave and rejoin the network at will,
accepting the longest proof-of-work chain as proof of what
happened while they were gone.
@ShahinKhan
Digital Money
Store of value
Safety?
Unit of account
Supply?
Medium of exchange
Stability?
What is it?
©2020 OrionX.net 21
©2020 OrionX.net
@ShahinKhan
ª Like old days
ª Both sides need the same key
ª Key must be kept secret
ª Must avoid eavesdroppers
ª Need a trusted way to
communicate
ª Assume eavesdropping, but
ª Make it difficult to decipher
ª Need 3 ingredients such that
– f ( (a,b), c) = f ( (a,c), b)
– f is easy to calculate, but its
inverse is very hard, eg
modular arithmetic
– a is public, while b and c are
private
– Both sides now have a shared
key
ª Provably random numbers
ª Quantum Key Distribution
– Entangled key transmission
– Superposition photons
– Sifting
– Distilling
Public Key Encryption – Basic Concept
©2020 OrionX.net 22
Symmetric Asymmetric Quantum
@ShahinKhan
Trust is computable
Blockchain
Emerging Stack
©2020 OrionX.net
BlockchainParticipation
Traceability
Smart Contracts
Rights Mgmt
DistributedScale
Permissioned / Private
Smart ContractsStored Procedures
Consensus Algorithms: Proof of *, Graph
Layer-2 Technologies: Off chain
Token: Equity, Utility
ACID à CAP, REST, Idempotent
Tokenless
Identity vs. Transparent AnonymityDirectory
DappsScale-out, P2P, Elastic Apps
TPM à Middleware / Messaging
Ledger: Transaction Blocks / GraphDatabase: SQL à NoSQL
DexchangeExchange
Decentralized / TrustlessCentralized
Premissionless / Public
Monolithic à Mulit-tier à Scale-out à Elastic à Serverless à Decentralized
23
©2020 OrionX.net
©2020 OrionX.net
@ShahinKhan
Contracts = Code
ª Disrupts legal contracts
ª Must be precise
– Translation from natural language
– Standards
ª Must be deterministic
– Code verification v. language-level enforcement
– State Machine v. Turing-Complete
– Limited set of transactions
ª Must be secure, immutable once on chain
– Validity prior to signature
– Code injection prior to commitment to chain
Smart Contracts
©2020 OrionX.net 24
Open Source
Smart
Contracts Event Triggered
On-chain or
Off-chain
Transactions
Stored in Chain
©2020 OrionX.net
@ShahinKhan@ShahinKhan
“When things change, they’re not the same any more.”
©2020 OrionX.net 25
– Anonymous?
@ShahinKhan@ShahinKhan
Call OrionX, of course, but regardless:
1. Get familiar, half a day
2. Track, few hours/quarter
3. Focus on cross-sections
4. Reflect on strategy and roadmap
5. Develop readiness criteria
6. Incorporate into your narrative
Take it seriously
What must you do now?
@ShahinKhan
@ShahinKhan
Shahin.Khan@OrionX.net
April, 2020
Thank you!

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The Top-5 Technologies All Organizations Must Understand

  • 1. @ShahinKhan ©2020 OrionX.net 1 OrionX.net QuantumIoT 5G Blockchain AI / HPC Industry Analysis•Market Execution•Demand Generation
  • 2. @ShahinKhan HPC-AI Advisory Council Stanford Conference April, 2020 Shahin.Khan@OrionX.net The Top-5 Technologies All Organizations Must Understand
  • 3. @ShahinKhan ª The Industrial revolution changed most aspects of life ª The Information Revolution is just starting ª This is why we are seeing so many big trends at the same time ª It’s too many buzzwords but understanding them in one place is mandatory ©2020 OrionX.net 3 Revolutions Change Things
  • 4. @ShahinKhan Enterprise as a System Opportunity and Threat The Future ©2020 OrionX.net 4 Digital Transformation QuantumIoT 5G Blockchain AI / HPC
  • 5. @ShahinKhan@ShahinKhan The opportunity is incredibly rewarding. New markets. New business models. e.g. Nvidia The threat is unmistakably existential. New competition. New customer needs. e.g. many! Why should you care? @ShahinKhan
  • 8. @ShahinKhan Everything is Smart ª Embedded, Mobile, Cloud ª Scale, Reliability, Speed, Ease of use, Environmentals, Cost ª Attack surface ª Lots of protocols – LPWAN, Zigbee, SigFox, LoRa, 3G-4G-5G, BLE, WiFi, OpenRAN, etc. IoT ©2020 OrionX.net 8 Event Control Trigger Command Insight Policy Business Objectives Level-0: Devices Level-2: Intelligence E d g e G l o b a l L o c a l M2M Switch Router Sensors Lake Gateway Level-1.x: Local Treatment Cloud Mobile Embedded ©2020 OrionX.net
  • 9. @ShahinKhan Data is the new oil IoT Big picture ©2020 OrionX.net 9 Atoms – Things Bits – Information Physical Twin Digital Twin Data Economy Data Sources GovernanceApplicationsDataDevices Data Supplies Data Product Data Market Security {Device, Mobile} to Cloud Cloud to {Insight, Control, Commerce} ©2020 OrionX.net
  • 10. @ShahinKhan Everything is Connected ª Big next-generation standard, hot global topic ª Two different similar 5G standards – 3GPP – IMT-2020 ª Buzzwords (Service Classes) – eMBB (enhanced Mobile BroadBand) – URLLC (Ultra Reliable Low Latency Communications) – mMTC (massive Machine Type Communications) ª Wide spectrum – Millimeter waves: ~30GHz-300GHz – 200 to 950 MBytes/s have been measured – Spectrum allocation impacts speed, etc. 5G ©2020 OrionX.net 10 ª Issues – Suburban and rural coverage – Access inside buildings or in snow/rain – Lingering health concerns ª Classes of technologies – Handset, Tower, Picocells, Back-end Switches – Software: Serverization, Network Function Virtualization (NFV), Open Cellular, SDN, etc. ª Real-looking use cases – Tele-surgery – Driverless cars: Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X), V2V, V2I (Infrastructure) – Edge Computing – VR/AR (maybe?) Coverage 100% Low Power 90% less Back-end Robustness Density 1mil devices/km2 Precision <1m Latency 1ms Bandwidth 20 Gbps
  • 11. @ShahinKhan Everything is Computable Supercomputing ©2020 OrionX.net 11 New Idea New Way New Model New Data Theory Experiment AI Simulation Communication Instrumentation Visualization Automation Digitization Data STEM IT HPCModeling ©2020 OrionX.net ©2020 OrionX.net
  • 12. @ShahinKhan Parallelism ©2020 OrionX.net 12 Concurrency Intensity Vector/GPU In-Memory ClusterReplicate Systems Memory Compute Serial Parallel Single-Node Traditional Models AI Algorithmic ©2020 OrionX.net
  • 13. @ShahinKhan Technology Options Classical Quantum Digital Analog Post Laws Quantum Gate Quantum Annealing Mixed Signal Source: Radical Semiconductor and OrionX collaboration ©2020 OrionX.net 13 Concurrency Intensity Vector/GPU In-Memory ClusterReplicate Systems Memory Compute Serial Parallel Single-Node Traditional Models AI Algorithmic ©2020 OrionX.net
  • 14. @ShahinKhan App Logic Elasticity Microservices Serverless SLA Policy Programmability Control Job Control Workload Scripts Network Scripts Ticketing Traffic Topology Network Services Security Intra-App Communication Apps: Containers, Automation, Fabric ©2020 OrionX.net 14 ©2020 OrionX.net
  • 15. @ShahinKhan IT Transformation to Cloud: Promise, Reality, Solution ©2020 OrionX.net 15 ©2020 OrionX.net
  • 16. @ShahinKhan Intelligence is Computable AI = High Performance AI ©2020 OrionX.net 16 Artificial Intelligence Search Logical Expert SystemStatistical Numerical Optimization Big Data Simulation / HPC Automation / IoTCloud Big Rules of Big Data AIIoT ©2020 OrionX.net ©2020 OrionX.net
  • 17. @ShahinKhan ª Autonomy limited by the precise definition of the scope ª Tolerance for mistakes ª Used for good or evil? ª Elimination of large classes of jobs by AI systems. ª Darwinian mistake? ª Asimov rules for robots ª Arguably a more important parameter than technological advances ª Unintended consequences ª System complexity can exceed human competence (Grand) Challenges Ethical ComplexityUnpredictability Legal Framework Autonomy ©2020 OrionX.net 17
  • 18. @ShahinKhan Everything is a Probability Function ª “Overhyped and Underestimated”, Hot, and will remain hot for the next decade ª Current state: NISQ: Noisy Intermediate Scale ª Global push: tens of serious efforts in multiple applications ª Used as an accelerator to classical computing, Programmability advancing ª Buzzwords: QIS, Supremacy, Y2Q, Quantum-safe Cryptography, QML, QEC, QKD, .. Quantum Computing ©2020 OrionX.net 18 Qubits Probability Functions Universal QC De-coherence Cryogenics Many approaches Lasers Photonics Solid State • • • Electron Hole Boson Sampling Trapped Ion Annealing Positronics • • • ©2020 OrionX.net
  • 19. @ShahinKhan ª Quantum Annealing ª Gate Model – Trapped atom/ion – Photonics – Topological ª Cryogenics ª Decoherence, QEC ª Quantum Volume – Count – Connectivity – Fidelity ª Entangled Photon ª Repeaters ª Teleportation ª Internet ª Older examples – Atomic Clocks – Magnetometers ª Emerging uses – Sensors that respond to quantum stimuli – Single-atom level – Quantum energy levels – Entanglement to improve accuracy/sensitivity Quantum Market Segments ©2020 OrionX.net 19 Computing Communications Sensing
  • 20. @ShahinKhan ª Coins/Tokens ª Addresses ª Cryptography ª Wallets ª Smart Contracts ª Exchanges ª Apps ª Bitcoin digitized gold – Mining ª Blockchain distributed ledger – Authenticity via computational challenge ª Increasing acceptance ª Increasing use cases ª But: legal challenges Digital Money? ©2020 OrionX.net 20 The Satoshi Paper, Oct. ’08 Components Bitcoin Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System Satoshi Nakamoto satoshin@gmx.com www.bitcoin.org Abstract. A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution. Digital signatures provide part of the solution, but the main benefits are lost if a trusted third party is still required to prevent double- spending. We propose a solution to the double-spending problem using a peer-to-peer network. The network timestamps transactions by hashing them into an ongoing chain of hash- based proof-of-work, forming a record that cannot be changed without redoing the proof-of-work. The longest chain not only serves as proof of the sequence of events witnessed, but proof that it came from the largest pool of CPU power. As long as a majority of CPU power is controlled by nodes that are not cooperating to attack the network, they'll generate the longest chain and outpace attackers. The network itself requires minimal structure. Messages are broadcast on a best effort basis, and nodes can leave and rejoin the network at will, accepting the longest proof-of-work chain as proof of what happened while they were gone.
  • 21. @ShahinKhan Digital Money Store of value Safety? Unit of account Supply? Medium of exchange Stability? What is it? ©2020 OrionX.net 21 ©2020 OrionX.net
  • 22. @ShahinKhan ª Like old days ª Both sides need the same key ª Key must be kept secret ª Must avoid eavesdroppers ª Need a trusted way to communicate ª Assume eavesdropping, but ª Make it difficult to decipher ª Need 3 ingredients such that – f ( (a,b), c) = f ( (a,c), b) – f is easy to calculate, but its inverse is very hard, eg modular arithmetic – a is public, while b and c are private – Both sides now have a shared key ª Provably random numbers ª Quantum Key Distribution – Entangled key transmission – Superposition photons – Sifting – Distilling Public Key Encryption – Basic Concept ©2020 OrionX.net 22 Symmetric Asymmetric Quantum
  • 23. @ShahinKhan Trust is computable Blockchain Emerging Stack ©2020 OrionX.net BlockchainParticipation Traceability Smart Contracts Rights Mgmt DistributedScale Permissioned / Private Smart ContractsStored Procedures Consensus Algorithms: Proof of *, Graph Layer-2 Technologies: Off chain Token: Equity, Utility ACID à CAP, REST, Idempotent Tokenless Identity vs. Transparent AnonymityDirectory DappsScale-out, P2P, Elastic Apps TPM à Middleware / Messaging Ledger: Transaction Blocks / GraphDatabase: SQL à NoSQL DexchangeExchange Decentralized / TrustlessCentralized Premissionless / Public Monolithic à Mulit-tier à Scale-out à Elastic à Serverless à Decentralized 23 ©2020 OrionX.net ©2020 OrionX.net
  • 24. @ShahinKhan Contracts = Code ª Disrupts legal contracts ª Must be precise – Translation from natural language – Standards ª Must be deterministic – Code verification v. language-level enforcement – State Machine v. Turing-Complete – Limited set of transactions ª Must be secure, immutable once on chain – Validity prior to signature – Code injection prior to commitment to chain Smart Contracts ©2020 OrionX.net 24 Open Source Smart Contracts Event Triggered On-chain or Off-chain Transactions Stored in Chain ©2020 OrionX.net
  • 25. @ShahinKhan@ShahinKhan “When things change, they’re not the same any more.” ©2020 OrionX.net 25 – Anonymous?
  • 26. @ShahinKhan@ShahinKhan Call OrionX, of course, but regardless: 1. Get familiar, half a day 2. Track, few hours/quarter 3. Focus on cross-sections 4. Reflect on strategy and roadmap 5. Develop readiness criteria 6. Incorporate into your narrative Take it seriously What must you do now? @ShahinKhan