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OMM Solutions
TECHtalk #10
1< OMM Solutions GmbH >
www.tech-talks.eu
Einmal im Monat ist TECHtalk Zeit! First come first served!
< OMM Solutions GmbH > 2
Talk: The future of society with AI
Speaker: Olaf Horstmann
3< OMM Solutions GmbH >
We’ve seen that AI …
• … drives safer than you
• … knows more than you
• … can analyse images quicker than you
• … speaks more languages than you
• … draws better pictures than you
• … writes texts faster than you
• … does not need any sleep
• … can do this
A brief recap from the last TechTalk
31.01.2018 < OMM Solutions GmbH > 4
A few examples
• Elevator opperators
• Bank tellers (ATM Machines)
• Telecommunication operators
The current effects of automation are nothing new
Occupations that got replaced
31.01.2018 < OMM Solutions GmbH > 5
Industrial Revolutions
It is actually the fourth time, that something like this is happening
Where we currenty are
31.01.2018 < OMM Solutions GmbH > 6
First Industrial Revolution
Steam & Waterpower
(1760 – 1840)
Technolocial Revolution
Electricity & Mass Production
(1870 – 1914)
Digital
Revolution
IT & Computerization
(~1960 – 2000)
Industry 4.0
AI & Automation
(2010 – 2040)
Quellen:
https://c.pxhere.com/photos/1b/c2/loco_steam_locomotive_loco
motive_franzburg_historically_nostalgic_monochrome_train-553
801.jpg!d
https://blog.crowdee.de/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/08/pex
els-photo-45072-1080x675.jpg
https://praxistipps-images.chip.de/CyzrmfbnUDSpJtFxN0lSvTFz
478=/640x360/filters:format(jpeg):fill(000,true):no_upscale()/pra
xistipps.s3.amazonaws.com%2F2018-11%2Fboard-453758_19
20.jpg; Pixabay
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/22/Fa
ctory_Automation_Robotics_Palettizing_Bread.jpg/800px-Factor
y_Automation_Robotics_Palettizing_Bread.jpg
A quick look at the facts of today
What does this mean in short term? (1-5 years)
31.01.2018 < OMM Solutions GmbH > 7Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014; O*Net; McKinsey
analysis.
• 45% of activities could be automated with todays
technology
• €1.6 Bil. in annual wages in the US1
• less than 5% of occupations can be automated 100%
with current technologies1
• jobs will still shift or get lost
• e.g. a mining company in sweden doubled its capacity in the
last 30 years without employing more workers²
• ~5Mil. Jobs worldwide will get lost due to
automation&AI until 2020³
A quick look at the facts of today
What does this mean in short term? (1-5 years)
31.01.2018 < OMM Solutions GmbH > 8
1
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/digital-mckinsey/our-insights/four-fundamentals-of-workplace-a
utomation
²https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/27/business/the-robots-are-coming-and-sweden-is-fine.html?referrer
• 400-800Mil. Jobs could be lost until 20301
(this would be almost
30% of the global workforce)
• 75-375Mil. Workers might need to change their occupation1
• This will mostly affect physical work and low skilled office work
• more demand for work until 2030
• in total: less unemployment
• highly depends on the region
• India: loose many physical jobs; gain in jobs of teachers or care
providers
• increased income and consumption in emerging countries
• Especially high-wage countries will see jobs replaced by
automation (e.g. Germany, USA, Japan)
• Some countries have a shrinking workforces
(e.g. Germany is estimated to have more work than it can handle
with its own workforce by 2030)
• Wages will be more equal throughout the world
• There will be a decrease of people living below the poverty line
It all depends on where you live
What can we expect in mid term? (5-10 years)
31.01.2018 < OMM Solutions GmbH > 91
https://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/future-of-organizations-and-work/what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages
https://media-cdn.sygictraveldata.com/media/380x254/612664395a40232133447d3
3247d383739323336353630
Quelle:
https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty
• The 1-10% rich will profit the most
• Eventually AI will be able to execute most of todays occupations
• This will lead to increased unemployment
• The distribution of wealth and income will be most likely the
biggest issue
• Without income, the majority of the population won‘t be able to
actually consume
• Without consumers, there will be no incentive for companies to
actually produce
• Increase of inequality and unemployment may lead to political
instability
“The pie will get bigger, but it won’t be shared equally” (Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee of the MIT
Sloan School of Management)
What can we expect in long term? (10-30 years)
31.01.2018 < OMM Solutions GmbH > 10
• Universal Basic Income
• „Everyone gets 1000€/month“
• Negative Income Tax (Milton Friedman)
• People below a certain income-level receive money from the
government instead of paying tax
• „Robotax“
• Taxation on the use of robotics and AI
• Regulated limitations on the use of robotics & AI
• e.g. „Each citizen is entitled to own 10
automation-tools(robot/AI) and can lease their entitlement“
• Active governmental involvement
• e.g. Laws that oblige companies to use at least 50%
government owned automation-tools
Clearly a subject for discussion
What can be done to prevent an increase in inequality by automation
31.01.2018 < OMM Solutions GmbH > 11
https://basicincome.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/31876556763_f5434a132b_z-420x236.jpg
https://blog.ipleaders.in/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/a496-300x205.jpg
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_Friedman#/media/File:Portrait_of_Milton_Friedman.jpg
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_
Friedman#/media/File:Portrait_of_
Milton_Friedman.jpg
• Currently there are human drivers/operators required for
• Personal Transit (Private Vehicles)
• Public Transit (Taxis, Busses, Subways, Railways)
• Cargo (Trucks, Railways, Delivery-Vehicles)
• Special Vehicles (Ambulance, Firetrucks, Military Vehicles)
• Fewer accidents
(10497 deaths by DUI in the US in 2016; €35 Mrd. in cost)
• Impact on insurance&healthcare system
• But also on towing-companies, repairshops and the
legal-system
• Cargo can be delivered faster (no rest times for trucks)
• Impact on productivity&efficiency of most companies
Automated Driving Systems – Just one example
Outlook
31.01.2018 < OMM Solutions GmbH > 12
https://www.nhtsa.gov/risky-driving/drunk-driving
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b7/A_car_sits_in_the_75
5th_Aircraft_Maintenance_Squadron%27s_parking_lot_July_15%2C_2013%2C_at
_Davis-Monthan_Air_Force_Base%2C_Ariz.%2C_to_represent_an_accident_result
ing_from_drunk_driving_130715-F-WQ860-006.jpg/512px-thumbnail.jpg
Vielen Dank für Eure Aufmerksamkeit!
13< OMM Solutions GmbH >
Ihr persönlicher Ansprechpartner
Fragen oder Interesse?
< OMM Solutions GmbH > 14
Olaf Horstmann
Technology & Innovation
OMM Solutions GmbH
Vor dem Lauch 4
70567 Stuttgart
Germany
oh@omm-solutions.de
+49 (0)711 75 86 46 04
15< OMM Solutions GmbH >
www.omm-solutions.de
OMM Solutions GmbH
Vor dem Lauch 4
70567 Stuttgart
Geschäftsführer
Martin Allmendinger
Malte Horstmann
Olaf Horstmann
Kontakt
Telefon: +49 711 6747 051-0
E-Mail: info@omm-solutions.de
Umsatzsteuer-ID: DE295716572
Sitz der Gesellschaft: Stuttgart
Amtsgericht Stuttgart, HRB 749562
Impressum

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The future of society with AI

  • 1. OMM Solutions TECHtalk #10 1< OMM Solutions GmbH > www.tech-talks.eu
  • 2. Einmal im Monat ist TECHtalk Zeit! First come first served! < OMM Solutions GmbH > 2
  • 3. Talk: The future of society with AI Speaker: Olaf Horstmann 3< OMM Solutions GmbH >
  • 4. We’ve seen that AI … • … drives safer than you • … knows more than you • … can analyse images quicker than you • … speaks more languages than you • … draws better pictures than you • … writes texts faster than you • … does not need any sleep • … can do this A brief recap from the last TechTalk 31.01.2018 < OMM Solutions GmbH > 4
  • 5. A few examples • Elevator opperators • Bank tellers (ATM Machines) • Telecommunication operators The current effects of automation are nothing new Occupations that got replaced 31.01.2018 < OMM Solutions GmbH > 5
  • 6. Industrial Revolutions It is actually the fourth time, that something like this is happening Where we currenty are 31.01.2018 < OMM Solutions GmbH > 6 First Industrial Revolution Steam & Waterpower (1760 – 1840) Technolocial Revolution Electricity & Mass Production (1870 – 1914) Digital Revolution IT & Computerization (~1960 – 2000) Industry 4.0 AI & Automation (2010 – 2040) Quellen: https://c.pxhere.com/photos/1b/c2/loco_steam_locomotive_loco motive_franzburg_historically_nostalgic_monochrome_train-553 801.jpg!d https://blog.crowdee.de/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/08/pex els-photo-45072-1080x675.jpg https://praxistipps-images.chip.de/CyzrmfbnUDSpJtFxN0lSvTFz 478=/640x360/filters:format(jpeg):fill(000,true):no_upscale()/pra xistipps.s3.amazonaws.com%2F2018-11%2Fboard-453758_19 20.jpg; Pixabay https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/22/Fa ctory_Automation_Robotics_Palettizing_Bread.jpg/800px-Factor y_Automation_Robotics_Palettizing_Bread.jpg
  • 7. A quick look at the facts of today What does this mean in short term? (1-5 years) 31.01.2018 < OMM Solutions GmbH > 7Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014; O*Net; McKinsey analysis.
  • 8. • 45% of activities could be automated with todays technology • €1.6 Bil. in annual wages in the US1 • less than 5% of occupations can be automated 100% with current technologies1 • jobs will still shift or get lost • e.g. a mining company in sweden doubled its capacity in the last 30 years without employing more workers² • ~5Mil. Jobs worldwide will get lost due to automation&AI until 2020³ A quick look at the facts of today What does this mean in short term? (1-5 years) 31.01.2018 < OMM Solutions GmbH > 8 1 https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/digital-mckinsey/our-insights/four-fundamentals-of-workplace-a utomation ²https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/27/business/the-robots-are-coming-and-sweden-is-fine.html?referrer
  • 9. • 400-800Mil. Jobs could be lost until 20301 (this would be almost 30% of the global workforce) • 75-375Mil. Workers might need to change their occupation1 • This will mostly affect physical work and low skilled office work • more demand for work until 2030 • in total: less unemployment • highly depends on the region • India: loose many physical jobs; gain in jobs of teachers or care providers • increased income and consumption in emerging countries • Especially high-wage countries will see jobs replaced by automation (e.g. Germany, USA, Japan) • Some countries have a shrinking workforces (e.g. Germany is estimated to have more work than it can handle with its own workforce by 2030) • Wages will be more equal throughout the world • There will be a decrease of people living below the poverty line It all depends on where you live What can we expect in mid term? (5-10 years) 31.01.2018 < OMM Solutions GmbH > 91 https://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/future-of-organizations-and-work/what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages https://media-cdn.sygictraveldata.com/media/380x254/612664395a40232133447d3 3247d383739323336353630 Quelle: https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty
  • 10. • The 1-10% rich will profit the most • Eventually AI will be able to execute most of todays occupations • This will lead to increased unemployment • The distribution of wealth and income will be most likely the biggest issue • Without income, the majority of the population won‘t be able to actually consume • Without consumers, there will be no incentive for companies to actually produce • Increase of inequality and unemployment may lead to political instability “The pie will get bigger, but it won’t be shared equally” (Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee of the MIT Sloan School of Management) What can we expect in long term? (10-30 years) 31.01.2018 < OMM Solutions GmbH > 10
  • 11. • Universal Basic Income • „Everyone gets 1000€/month“ • Negative Income Tax (Milton Friedman) • People below a certain income-level receive money from the government instead of paying tax • „Robotax“ • Taxation on the use of robotics and AI • Regulated limitations on the use of robotics & AI • e.g. „Each citizen is entitled to own 10 automation-tools(robot/AI) and can lease their entitlement“ • Active governmental involvement • e.g. Laws that oblige companies to use at least 50% government owned automation-tools Clearly a subject for discussion What can be done to prevent an increase in inequality by automation 31.01.2018 < OMM Solutions GmbH > 11 https://basicincome.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/31876556763_f5434a132b_z-420x236.jpg https://blog.ipleaders.in/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/a496-300x205.jpg https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_Friedman#/media/File:Portrait_of_Milton_Friedman.jpg https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_ Friedman#/media/File:Portrait_of_ Milton_Friedman.jpg
  • 12. • Currently there are human drivers/operators required for • Personal Transit (Private Vehicles) • Public Transit (Taxis, Busses, Subways, Railways) • Cargo (Trucks, Railways, Delivery-Vehicles) • Special Vehicles (Ambulance, Firetrucks, Military Vehicles) • Fewer accidents (10497 deaths by DUI in the US in 2016; €35 Mrd. in cost) • Impact on insurance&healthcare system • But also on towing-companies, repairshops and the legal-system • Cargo can be delivered faster (no rest times for trucks) • Impact on productivity&efficiency of most companies Automated Driving Systems – Just one example Outlook 31.01.2018 < OMM Solutions GmbH > 12 https://www.nhtsa.gov/risky-driving/drunk-driving https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b7/A_car_sits_in_the_75 5th_Aircraft_Maintenance_Squadron%27s_parking_lot_July_15%2C_2013%2C_at _Davis-Monthan_Air_Force_Base%2C_Ariz.%2C_to_represent_an_accident_result ing_from_drunk_driving_130715-F-WQ860-006.jpg/512px-thumbnail.jpg
  • 13. Vielen Dank für Eure Aufmerksamkeit! 13< OMM Solutions GmbH >
  • 14. Ihr persönlicher Ansprechpartner Fragen oder Interesse? < OMM Solutions GmbH > 14 Olaf Horstmann Technology & Innovation OMM Solutions GmbH Vor dem Lauch 4 70567 Stuttgart Germany oh@omm-solutions.de +49 (0)711 75 86 46 04
  • 15. 15< OMM Solutions GmbH > www.omm-solutions.de OMM Solutions GmbH Vor dem Lauch 4 70567 Stuttgart Geschäftsführer Martin Allmendinger Malte Horstmann Olaf Horstmann Kontakt Telefon: +49 711 6747 051-0 E-Mail: info@omm-solutions.de Umsatzsteuer-ID: DE295716572 Sitz der Gesellschaft: Stuttgart Amtsgericht Stuttgart, HRB 749562 Impressum