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The Future of the Business Landscape: What's in Store for Companies? 
John Hagel, Director, Deloitte Consulting LLP 
Tamara Samoylova, Senior Manager, Deloitte Services LP
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
Driving forces for fragmentation 
Business landscape of the future 
Potential roles for Fortune 500 companies 
Question and answer 
Contents
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
“There's something happening here, what it is ain't exactly clear” 
–Buffalo Springfield
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
Fragmentation to individual providers 
Neither one gives institutions much comfort 
There are two dominant perspectives 
“Micro-Work” 
VS. 
Concentration where only the largest survive 
Our perspective: Both outcomes will co-exist and reinforce each other. 
“Winner Takes All”
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
Large companies or smaller companies seeking to grow rapidly will need to understand these three questions: 
•Which parts of the economy are fragmenting? 
•Which parts of the economy are concentrating? 
•How will various ecosystem players interact? 
Corporate growth will come from certain areas 
Understanding the trends is essential 
Understanding the trends could help companies focus in the areas of the economy best suited for growth.
Driving forces for fragmentation
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
Etsy is an online marketplace for independent sellers 
Let’s begin with a case study 
• 30M+ members 
• Projected $1B in sales for 2013 
• 1.5B+ page views per month 
• 1M+ new members each month 
900,000 independent 
shops 
Makers, DIYers, 
small businesses 
Sellers in 150+ 
countries
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
Etsy is an example of fragmentation and concentration 
What exactly is happening? 
Fragmentation 
•Increasing number of smaller players addressing diverse consumer needs 
•Competing on specialization, personalization, and customization 
•Examples: Food trucks 
•Consolidating number of large-scale players that are tightly focused on single business activity or function 
•Competing on scale and scope 
•Examples: Logistics operators 
Symbiotic & Reinforcing 
Concentration 
Economy
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
Concentrated players emerge to support fragmentation 
Three forces are driving fragmentation 
Advances in technology 
Shifts in choices and values 
Public policy liberalization 
Fragmentation 
Exponential improvements in core digital infrastructure reduce barriers to entry and participation. 
General trend toward public policy liberalization makes it easier to start and manage business at any scale. 
Individuals’ desire for autonomy in professional life makes it less likely to participate in larger companies.
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
Back to our story… 
• 30M+ members 
• Projected $1B in sales for 2013 
• 1.5B+ page views per month 
• 1M+ new members each month 
Fragmentation 
Concentration 
Symbiotic & 
Reinforcing 
900,000 independent 
shops 
Makers, DIYers, 
small businesses 
Sellers in 150+ 
countries
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
Quirky is a web platform that crowdsources inventions 
Another case study 
Platform 
Quirky inventors 
Platform 
•Quirky operates on a web platformthat crowdsources inventions. 
•GE’s vast intellectual property (and manufacturing capabilities) also represents a platform. 
•Inventors are fragmented players that leverage the resources of GE’s and Quirky’s platforms. 
Quirky 
General Electric
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
3D printing allows individuals to rapidly prototype ideas 
One more example
Business landscape of the future
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
•Provide the physical infrastructure, digital aggregation, and mass agent capability 
•Tightly focused on single business activity or function 
Concentrated players will compete on scale and scope 
Scale, scope operators will concentrate 
Infrastructure providers 
Manufacturing 
Logistics 
Digital tech infra. 
Facilities mgmt. 
Back office 
Aggregation platforms 
Social 
Content 
Data 
Broker/market 
Finance 
Agent businesses 
Consumer 
Talent 
… 
… 
… 
Risk management 
Scale & Scope Operators
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
Niche players will compete on personalization 
Niche operators will fragment 
Niche operators 
• Serve diverse 
consumer needs 
and provide 
personalized, 
localized services 
and opportunities 
• Compete on 
specialization and 
customization 
• Focus on product 
development and 
commercialization 
• Supported by 
scale & scope 
Operators 
Domain 
Experts 
Mom & 
Pop 
Makers 
Individual 
Consumer Creator 
Coders 
Investors 
Artists 
Infrastructure 
providers 
Manufacturing 
Logistics 
Digital tech infra. 
Facilities mgmt. 
Back office 
Aggregation 
platforms 
Social 
Content 
Data 
Broker/market 
Finance 
Agent 
businesses 
Consumer 
Talent 
… 
… 
… 
Risk management
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
•Mobilizers are orchestrators among platforms and operators that provide learning opportunities and facilitate collaboration. 
Mobilizers will facilitate learning and collaboration 
Mobilizers will bring ecosystem together 
Mobilizers 
Flash orgs 
Creation spaces 
Communities of action 
Open source 
Process networks 
Infrastructure standard setter 
… 
Mobilizers 
Infrastructure providers 
Manufacturing 
Logistics 
Digital tech infra. 
Facilities mgmt. 
Back office 
Aggregation platforms 
Social 
Content 
Data 
Broker/market 
Finance 
Agent businesses 
Consumer 
Talent 
… 
… 
… 
Risk management 
Domain Experts 
Mom & Pop 
Makers 
Individual 
Consumer 
Creator 
Coders 
Investors 
Artists
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
Focusing on a particular role will enable rapid learning 
Focused players will interact 
Domain 
Experts 
Mom & 
Pop 
Makers 
Individual 
Consumer Creator 
Coders 
Angels 
Artists 
Infrastructure 
providers 
Manufacturing 
Logistics 
Digital tech infra. 
Facilities mgmt. 
Back office 
Aggregation 
platforms 
Social 
Content 
Data 
Broker/market 
Finance 
Agent 
businesses 
Consumer 
Talent 
… 
… 
… 
Risk management 
Mobilizers 
Flash orgs 
Creation spaces 
Communities of 
action 
Open source 
Process 
networks 
Infrastructure 
standard setter 
…
Potential roles for Fortune 500 companies
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
Focusing around scale & scope roles will enable growth 
Fortune 500 companies will need to focus 
Product business 
Platform 
Infrastructure 
Agent 
•Provide scale intensive, high-volume, routine processing activities as an outsource service. 
•Aggregate resources and vendors, and connect them with appropriate users or customers. 
•Provide specific recommendations based on full understanding of each customer.
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
Embraced fragmented players could help IKEA amplify innovation 
IKEA could become a platform 
From making products… 
…to embracing ecosystem
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
1.Understand and embrace fragmentation. 
2.DO NOT compete with the fragmented players. 
3.Focus around scale and scope roles. 
4.Re-position products/services as platforms to accommodate more fragmented players and expand value offered to customers. 
5.Connect and collaborate with mobilizers. 
But Fortune 500 “winners” will have same characteristics 
Transformation speed is industry-specific
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
Do not rely solely on forecasts, look for signals 
Future may be closer than we think 
Source: American Heritage Magazine —http://www.americanheritage.com/articles/magazine/it/2007/3/2007_3_8.html, quoted by Vinod Khosla, Khosla Ventures April 2009 
Many forecasts are often based on linear projections and thus are often wrong in the exponential world. 
Forecast 
Actual 
Analyst forecast for the U.S. mobile subscribers (1980 => 2000) 
> 0.9M 
> 109M
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
http://dupress.com/articles/heros-journey-landscape-future/ 
A hero’s journey through the landscape of the future 
The forces of the Big Shift are driving both 
fragmentation and consolidation, fundamentally 
changing the nature of the relationships among 
businesses.
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
John Hageljhagel@deloitte.com 
Tamara Samoylovatsamoylova@deloitte.com 
Contact info
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 
This presentation contains general information only and Deloitte is not, by means of this presentation, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services. This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your business, you should consult a qualified professional advisor. Deloitte shall not be responsible for any loss sustained by any person who relies on this presentation.
About DeloitteDeloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/aboutfor a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/aboutfor a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Certain services may not be availabletoattest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited

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The future of the business landscape: What's in store for companies?

  • 1. The Future of the Business Landscape: What's in Store for Companies? John Hagel, Director, Deloitte Consulting LLP Tamara Samoylova, Senior Manager, Deloitte Services LP
  • 2. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Driving forces for fragmentation Business landscape of the future Potential roles for Fortune 500 companies Question and answer Contents
  • 3. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. “There's something happening here, what it is ain't exactly clear” –Buffalo Springfield
  • 4. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Fragmentation to individual providers Neither one gives institutions much comfort There are two dominant perspectives “Micro-Work” VS. Concentration where only the largest survive Our perspective: Both outcomes will co-exist and reinforce each other. “Winner Takes All”
  • 5. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Large companies or smaller companies seeking to grow rapidly will need to understand these three questions: •Which parts of the economy are fragmenting? •Which parts of the economy are concentrating? •How will various ecosystem players interact? Corporate growth will come from certain areas Understanding the trends is essential Understanding the trends could help companies focus in the areas of the economy best suited for growth.
  • 6. Driving forces for fragmentation
  • 7. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Etsy is an online marketplace for independent sellers Let’s begin with a case study • 30M+ members • Projected $1B in sales for 2013 • 1.5B+ page views per month • 1M+ new members each month 900,000 independent shops Makers, DIYers, small businesses Sellers in 150+ countries
  • 8. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Etsy is an example of fragmentation and concentration What exactly is happening? Fragmentation •Increasing number of smaller players addressing diverse consumer needs •Competing on specialization, personalization, and customization •Examples: Food trucks •Consolidating number of large-scale players that are tightly focused on single business activity or function •Competing on scale and scope •Examples: Logistics operators Symbiotic & Reinforcing Concentration Economy
  • 9. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Concentrated players emerge to support fragmentation Three forces are driving fragmentation Advances in technology Shifts in choices and values Public policy liberalization Fragmentation Exponential improvements in core digital infrastructure reduce barriers to entry and participation. General trend toward public policy liberalization makes it easier to start and manage business at any scale. Individuals’ desire for autonomy in professional life makes it less likely to participate in larger companies.
  • 10. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Back to our story… • 30M+ members • Projected $1B in sales for 2013 • 1.5B+ page views per month • 1M+ new members each month Fragmentation Concentration Symbiotic & Reinforcing 900,000 independent shops Makers, DIYers, small businesses Sellers in 150+ countries
  • 11. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Quirky is a web platform that crowdsources inventions Another case study Platform Quirky inventors Platform •Quirky operates on a web platformthat crowdsources inventions. •GE’s vast intellectual property (and manufacturing capabilities) also represents a platform. •Inventors are fragmented players that leverage the resources of GE’s and Quirky’s platforms. Quirky General Electric
  • 12. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 3D printing allows individuals to rapidly prototype ideas One more example
  • 13. Business landscape of the future
  • 14. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. •Provide the physical infrastructure, digital aggregation, and mass agent capability •Tightly focused on single business activity or function Concentrated players will compete on scale and scope Scale, scope operators will concentrate Infrastructure providers Manufacturing Logistics Digital tech infra. Facilities mgmt. Back office Aggregation platforms Social Content Data Broker/market Finance Agent businesses Consumer Talent … … … Risk management Scale & Scope Operators
  • 15. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Niche players will compete on personalization Niche operators will fragment Niche operators • Serve diverse consumer needs and provide personalized, localized services and opportunities • Compete on specialization and customization • Focus on product development and commercialization • Supported by scale & scope Operators Domain Experts Mom & Pop Makers Individual Consumer Creator Coders Investors Artists Infrastructure providers Manufacturing Logistics Digital tech infra. Facilities mgmt. Back office Aggregation platforms Social Content Data Broker/market Finance Agent businesses Consumer Talent … … … Risk management
  • 16. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. •Mobilizers are orchestrators among platforms and operators that provide learning opportunities and facilitate collaboration. Mobilizers will facilitate learning and collaboration Mobilizers will bring ecosystem together Mobilizers Flash orgs Creation spaces Communities of action Open source Process networks Infrastructure standard setter … Mobilizers Infrastructure providers Manufacturing Logistics Digital tech infra. Facilities mgmt. Back office Aggregation platforms Social Content Data Broker/market Finance Agent businesses Consumer Talent … … … Risk management Domain Experts Mom & Pop Makers Individual Consumer Creator Coders Investors Artists
  • 17. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Focusing on a particular role will enable rapid learning Focused players will interact Domain Experts Mom & Pop Makers Individual Consumer Creator Coders Angels Artists Infrastructure providers Manufacturing Logistics Digital tech infra. Facilities mgmt. Back office Aggregation platforms Social Content Data Broker/market Finance Agent businesses Consumer Talent … … … Risk management Mobilizers Flash orgs Creation spaces Communities of action Open source Process networks Infrastructure standard setter …
  • 18. Potential roles for Fortune 500 companies
  • 19. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Focusing around scale & scope roles will enable growth Fortune 500 companies will need to focus Product business Platform Infrastructure Agent •Provide scale intensive, high-volume, routine processing activities as an outsource service. •Aggregate resources and vendors, and connect them with appropriate users or customers. •Provide specific recommendations based on full understanding of each customer.
  • 20. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Embraced fragmented players could help IKEA amplify innovation IKEA could become a platform From making products… …to embracing ecosystem
  • 21. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 1.Understand and embrace fragmentation. 2.DO NOT compete with the fragmented players. 3.Focus around scale and scope roles. 4.Re-position products/services as platforms to accommodate more fragmented players and expand value offered to customers. 5.Connect and collaborate with mobilizers. But Fortune 500 “winners” will have same characteristics Transformation speed is industry-specific
  • 22. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Do not rely solely on forecasts, look for signals Future may be closer than we think Source: American Heritage Magazine —http://www.americanheritage.com/articles/magazine/it/2007/3/2007_3_8.html, quoted by Vinod Khosla, Khosla Ventures April 2009 Many forecasts are often based on linear projections and thus are often wrong in the exponential world. Forecast Actual Analyst forecast for the U.S. mobile subscribers (1980 => 2000) > 0.9M > 109M
  • 23. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. http://dupress.com/articles/heros-journey-landscape-future/ A hero’s journey through the landscape of the future The forces of the Big Shift are driving both fragmentation and consolidation, fundamentally changing the nature of the relationships among businesses.
  • 24. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. John Hageljhagel@deloitte.com Tamara Samoylovatsamoylova@deloitte.com Contact info
  • 25. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. This presentation contains general information only and Deloitte is not, by means of this presentation, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services. This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your business, you should consult a qualified professional advisor. Deloitte shall not be responsible for any loss sustained by any person who relies on this presentation.
  • 26. About DeloitteDeloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/aboutfor a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/aboutfor a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Certain services may not be availabletoattest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited