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The Accelerating Growth of Frictionless Commerce | A.T. Kearney

The document discusses the rapid adoption of frictionless commerce in the digital payments landscape, highlighting that nearly 60% of U.S. consumers are likely to use these innovative shopping services. It predicts that frictionless commerce could account for 10% to 30% of sales by 2026, emphasizing the role of consumer data in automating purchases and the mixed consumer attitudes towards data sharing. Additionally, it addresses the opportunities and threats for banks within this evolving environment and suggests five strategies for them to navigate this trend.

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The Accelerating Growth of Frictionless Commerce
Consumer adoption of digital commerce and payments has become mainstream The Accelerating Growth of Frictionless Commerce Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Digital purchases are defined as those conducted online on a desktop or laptop, using the Web browser of a mobile device, or within a mobile app. Question: “How often do you make digital purchases?” N=7,002 Source: A.T. Kearney Q4 2015 Banking and Payments Study Frequency of conducting digital purchases % of banked consumers who selected each frequency Using a desktop or laptop Using a mobile phone Using a tablet 86% 57% 41% Annually Quarterly Monthly Weekly Daily 8% 8% 60% at least monthly 38% at least monthly 24% at least monthly 7% 18% 11% 9% 32% 17% 13%20% 12% 8%8% 9% 3%
Have already used these types of services Have not used any yet, but likely to use in the future Have heard of but have not used any yet Have not used yet, and not likely to use in the future Nearly 60% of US consumers are aware of and likely to use innovative frictionless shopping services The Accelerating Growth of Frictionless Commerce Note: Question: What is your awareness of the examples provided? Source: A.T. Kearney Frictionless Commerce Consumer Survey, February 2016, NPD Group, A.T. Kearney What is your awareness of frictionless commerce? % of respondents Entertain- ment (Netflix, Spotify, Verlocal, Facebook) Grocery (Amazon, Google Express, FreshDirect) Home meals (Blue Apron, Muchery, Kitchensurfing) Fashion and apparel (Le Tote, Trunk Club, Warby Parker) Wellness (ClassPass, Lumo, Zeel, Zocdoc) Overall 31% 6% 36% 27% 12% 8% 41% 39% 8% 7% 29% 56% 11% 9% 20% 61% 8% 7% 25% 60% 17% 7% 33% 43% 57%
Today, however, most digital purchases require consumers to enter transaction-specific information The Accelerating Growth of Frictionless Commerce Notes: Digital purchases are defined as those conducted online on a desktop or laptop, using the Web browser of a mobile device, or within a mobile app. Question: “How often do you make digital purchases? Which of the following do you consider your primary payment method (i.e., the one you most commonly use) for digital purchases (e.g., online desktop or laptop, on a mobile browser, on a mobile app)?” N=6,550 Source: A.T. Kearney Q4 2015 Banking and Payments Study Primary payment method for digital purchases % who selected each primary method among banked consumers who conduct digital purchases 61% 21% 17% Other Enter payment information for each transaction Access the payment information held on file at the retailer Access the payment information held on file at a third-party payment service provider (e.g., PayPal, Visa Checkout) 1%
Innovative players are now moving to eliminate the “friction” from commerce, using consumer-provided data to automate the entire shopping process The Accelerating Growth of Frictionless Commerce
These innovators have simplified and sped up the payments process, removing steps such as payment details and transaction authorization Source: A.T. Kearney analysis Illustrative movers and shakers across the consumer landscape • Automated and near real-time fulfillment • Personalized recommendations • Automated shopping lists and triggers • Pre-authorization of purchase and/or payments • Little-to-no customer action Consumer data Shop Fulfillm ent Purchase The Accelerating Growth of Frictionless Commerce
Frictionless purchases can then be automatically made on behalf of the consumer, with his or her advance consent, using real-time, integrated data from consumer preferences, past behaviors, sensors, and other sources The Accelerating Growth of Frictionless Commerce
Looking ahead, consider how a smart refrigerator could automatically order groceries for home delivery based on which food items are running low—and the consumer never even pushes a button The Accelerating Growth of Frictionless Commerce
By 2026, frictionless commerce will likely reach 10 percent of all sales—and as high as 30 percent in some merchant categories The Accelerating Growth of Frictionless Commerce 55% 15% 30% $2.8 $2.6 $2.4 $1.2 $1.0 $0.8 $0.6 $0.2 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 $0.4 Traditional retail Frictionless commerce: Predictive algorithms Sensor-based Subscription Digital: Web and POS Between now and 2026, frictionless commerce2 will grow annually by 24%3 1 Consumer spending is measured in constant 2014 dollar value. 2 Frictionless commerce category includes membership and subscription, sensor-based, and predictive algorithm commerce models. 3 CAGR is calculated based on dollar value. Sources: US Census data; A.T. Kearney analysis Annual consumer spending forecast1 (US$ trillion) 2026 spending (% of spending)
The Accelerating Growth of Frictionless Commerce Consumer attitudes are sharply divided, however, on whether sharing data required to conduct frictionless commerce provides benefits or is an invasion of privacy Note: Question: “Which of the following statements best reflects your views regarding the use of consumer payment/purchase data by banks, retailers, or digital merchants (e.g., targeted recommendations, special offers, marketing promotions)?” N=7,002 Source: A.T. Kearney Q4 2015 Banking and Payments Study Consumer perception of providers’ use of their payment or purchase data % who selected each option among banked consumers 13% 30% 30% 11% 17% A benefit, but only if consumers are directly compensated for the use of the information A benefit if consumers benefit directly from the use of their information (e.g., special offers and discounts) A necessary evil, with occasional benefits to consumers A benefit because it improves retailers‘ knowledge of the customer and the context for future purchases (e.g., recommendations) An invasion of privacy that should be prohibited
For banks, frictionless commerce is a threat— and an opportunity The Accelerating Growth of Frictionless Commerce
Banks could become “commoditized” as frictionless commerce eliminates consumer payment type and brand decisions The Accelerating Growth of Frictionless Commerce
On the other hand, there are opportunities to add value everywhere: new mobile sales solutions; retail partnerships; investments in mining customer data; and offering “privacy as a service” The Accelerating Growth of Frictionless Commerce
Banks are in a strategically advantaged position in terms of consumers’ trust in their ability to properly manage consumer data The Accelerating Growth of Frictionless Commerce Notes: For each provider, excludes consumers who do not interact with that provider. Question: “Do you conduct any digital activity (e.g., sending emails, Internet browsing, social network activities, shopping activities) either online (with laptop or desktop computer) or on a mobile device (smartphone or tablet)?; In general, how concerned are you about the privacy of the information that is shared when you conduct digital activities (e.g., sending emails, Internet browsing, social network activities, shopping activities) either online or on a mobile device?; Consider the following types of providers you may share your personal information with when conducting digital activities (e.g., sending emails, Internet browsing, social network activities, shopping activities). Please tell us how comfortable you are with each of the following providers having access to your personal information.” N=7,898 Source: A.T. Kearney Digital Commerce Study 2015 Primary bank Level of comfort with providers having access to personal information % who said they are extremely or very comfortable 42% PayPal 34% Visa 31% Amazon 30% American Express 30% Master- Card 29% Discover 28% Apple 23% Google 19% Twitter 17% Large/ national retailer  17% Facebook 14%
Five ways banks and payment providers can address the frictionless commerce trend The Accelerating Growth of Frictionless Commerce Participate in the deployment of frictionless commerce solutions to both guide the evolution and become hardwired into future solutions1. Pursue partnerships to provide and lever direct and indirect contextual shopping data2. Determine ways to use consumer and transaction data in more meaningful ways for both consumers and merchants3. Offer differentiated value-added services to acquire merchants4. Pursue and develop “privacy as a service” to help consumers manage their personal data in the frictionless commerce world5.
For more information about The Accelerating Growth of Frictionless Commerce, please visit: www.atkearney.com/frictionless-commerce The Accelerating Growth of Frictionless Commerce