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2011 RedSeer Consulting Confidential `and Proprietary Information
© |
www.redseerconsulting.com Query@redseerconsulting.com
2017 RedSeer Consulting Confidential `and Proprietary Information
©
Flexible in Approach, Firm on Results
Flexible in Approach, Firm on Results
Q1-CY17 Edition
State of the Online Cabs Market
• A comprehensive performance review of the online cab aggregator market
• Assessed through a regularly tracked set of performance indicators
• Published quarterly
1
Published in May 2017
|
What is in this report?
2
1. This report includes a comprehensive assessment of Indian online
cab sector performance across eight key dimensions
2. Each key dimension is rated on whether the sector performed
above expectations (Bullish ), broadly as per expectation
(Neutral ) or significantly worse than expectations (Bearish )
on that dimension
3. Each key dimension is further built up from multiple sub-
dimensions, which are also rated for the sector using the above
criteria
RedSeer’s Integrated Research ApproachTM incorporating the following:
1. Tracks 50,000+ monthly online transactions
2. Primary Interviews with 1,000+ drivers in 10+ cities every quarter
3. Primary Interviews with 3,000+ customers every quarter
Sector Assessment Approach
Integrated Research ApproachTM
Research Methodology
|
SN Key Dimension Sub-Dimensions
1 Rides & GBV performance
1. Ride trends
2. GBV trends
2 Driver Supply
1. Registered Cab Supply
2. No: of working days/month
3 Customer Adoption
1. Monthly active users
2. Repeat Usage measured via WAU/MAU= Share of monthly active users who are
also active weekly
3. Adoption of carpooling
4 Unit Economics
1. Incentive as a % of GBV
2. Take Rates %
3. Share of cashless rides
5 Driver Economics
1. Rides/day/driver
2. Driver Take-home Income
6 Operational Performance
1. Cab Availability
2. ETA (in min)
3. Driver Cancellations
7 Customer Satisfaction
1. Booking Experience (As NPS score)
2. Ride Experience (As NPS score)
8 Regulatory Assessment 1. Support provided or obstacles created from recent regulatory changes
Overall Performance
Eight Key Dimensions for Assessing Sector Performance
3
|
Glossary
4
Key Word Description
GBV Gross Booking Value- What the rider pays to the cabs aggregator
Driver Incentives Additional payout made to drivers over the GBV value, by aggregator
ETA Estimated Time of Arrival
WAU
And MAU
Weekly and Monthly Active Users (on app)
Cab Availability Whether any of Pool/share or Go/Micro/Mini/Prime is available
Glossary
Note
1. The report broadly covers the trends in Online Taxi Market in Q1 CY17
2. Trends in the offline taxi market are not covered in this report
3. Trends in the online and offline market for other transport modes e.g. bikes, shuttle buses and
autos are also not covered in this report
|
100
600
0%
100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17
Driver Incentive Driver Income
Executive Summary
5
 After a long period of uninterrupted growth, Q1-CY17 saw a 5%
decrease in the overall cabs bookings for the industry
 The reason for decline was two fold–
o Supply crunch caused by driver strikes across major cities
in January and February (10% decline in no: of working
days/month from Q4’16)
o Flat or dropping consumer demand (in terms of MAUs for
leading players)
 Driver strikes were precipitated by a 45% q-o-q fall in driver
income, caused by sharp reduction in ride incentives- which in
turn was pushed by a growing industry focus on profitability
 We believe that this quarter has been one of ‘stabilization’ for
the industry, which has taken the much needed steps to
rationalize its financials. While there has been a short term hit
on industry growth, we expect growth to pickup again once the
supply stabilizes and demand grows for services like carpooling
Q1-CY17 was marked by a clear tussle between growth and profitability. Growing focus on profitability
pushed players to cut down on driver incentives- a move which led to driver strikes across India, with the
associated supply crunch contributing to a q-o-q fall in rides for the industry
142
136
5%
Q4’16 Q1’17
Total completed rides for industry in Mn
Driver Incentives (as a % of GBV) and Driver
Income (In USD per month)
State of the Online Cabs Market Q1-CY17- Executive Summary
|
Contents
6
Appendix – Player Level Reports
C
Appendix - 2020 Scenario
B
Industry Review
A
|
Sector Assessment Scorecard: Q1-CY17 Performance
7
SN Key Dimension
Industry
Performance
Assessment Rationale
1
Rides & GBV
performance
After multiple quarters of delivering growth, the online cabs market suffered a
minor slowdown in Q1-CY17
2 Driver Supply
Industry slowdown was primarily caused by supply crunch due to striking
drivers- as reflected in fewer driver working days and lower cab supply
3 Customer Adoption
Stagnating customer demand also played a role in growth slowdown- even as
carpooling remained a bright spot
4 Unit economics
While the market declined, there was an improvement in unit economics- as
shown by a strong drop in driver incentive spending
5 Driver Economics
Lower driver incentive earnings coupled with fewer rides per day in the past
quarter led to a sharp drop in driver income
6
Operational
Performance
Striking drivers meant that industry saw an increase in ETAs in the past
quarter; however, other operational metrics remained stable
7
Consumer
Satisfaction
Despite increase in ETA, industry had a stable Consumer Satisfaction with
‘booking experience’; however, satisfaction with ride experience worsened
8
Regulatory
Assessment
On the regulatory side, the past quarter was largely uneventful; newly enacted
regulations had little or no impact on the sector
9
Overall Sector
Performance
Overall, the theme of the past quarter was stabilization and
rationalization. Strong performance was seen in the area of unit
economics while the industry was flat or declining on other parameters
Bearish
Bullish Neutral
|
70
125
140 142
~136
Q1 CY16 Q2 CY16 Q3 CY16 Q4 CY16 Q1 CY'17
8
Source: RedSeer analysis
 The year started with
a rapid 9% m-o-m
growth in Q1
 Launch of Ola Micro
in March’16 helped
in curbing Uber’s
growth
 Massive growth
continued into Q2
driven by success in
Micro
 Industry crossed a
milestone of 100 Mn
rides in the quarter
 Growth slowdown in
Q3 was a result of
the supply crunch
caused by drivers
leaving platforms
due to supply clean-
up and fraud
reduction initiatives
 Supply
rationalization
continued in Q4
which saw frequent
disruptions in supply
leading to the market
remaining stagnant
80%
12%
2% ~5%
 First ever drop in
industry rides
 Rides fall caused by
reduced driver
incentives leading to
strikes and supply-
demand mismatch
After multiple quarters of delivering growth, the online cabs market
suffered a minor slowdown in Q1-CY17
Indian Online Cabs Market- Ride Count
(For Each Quarter, In Millions)
Rides & GBV Performance
| 9
Industry slowdown was primarily caused by supply crunch due to striking
drivers- as reflected in fewer driver working days and lower cab supply
Source: RedSeer analysis Bearish
Bullish Neutral
Sub-Dimension Key Takeaways
Time Trend
Sub-Dimension
Rating: Q1-CY17
0
30
Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17
Decrease in # of working days for
the drivers was a the primary
cause of supply crunch in the
past quarter
• Working days reduction was
caused by driver strikes in major
cities
• Metro cities with the lowest
working days were New Delhi and
Bangalore
# of driver working
days/month
1
0
0.6
Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17
Supply crunch situation was
further exacerbated by drivers
leaving online platforms entirely
• This trend was precipitated largely
by continuously dropping
incentives and driver incomes
• Drivers who left the online
platforms either shifted into other
(offline) driving jobs or changed
professions entirely
Registered Cab
Supply (Millions)
2
Driver Supply
|
0%
20%
Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17
50
200
Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17
Player 1 Player 2
10
Stagnating customer demand also played a role in growth slowdown- even
as carpooling remained a bright spot
Source: RedSeer analysis
Stagnation in consumer demand
is reflected in the falling MAU
numbers for the two major
platforms
• This indicates slowdown in
addition of new users- itself an
indicator of the metro markets
moving towards saturation
Carpooling saw a steady growth
in Q1’17
 Due to lower fares and greater
convenience, carpooling kept on
seeing growth, with the rides
growing by ~9% q-o-q in Q1’17.
Share of repeat users grew in the
past quarter, again an indication
of slowdown in new user addition
 WAU/MAU broadly indicates the
share of repeat users in the total
user mix
Bearish
Bullish Neutral
Carpooling Rides
(as a % of total
industry cab rides)
Repeat Usage
(Measured as
WAU/MAU= Share of
monthly active users
who are also active
weekly)
3
2
Sub-Dimension Key Takeaways
Time Trend
Sub-Dimension
Rating: Q1-CY17
Monthly Active
Users
(On the app for
leading platforms, in
Millions)
1
Customer Adoption
45%
55%
Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17
|
0%
40%
Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17
11
While the market declined, there was an improvement in unit economics-
as shown by a strong drop in driver incentive spending
Source: RedSeer analysis, AppAnnie data
0%
100%
Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17
Q1’17 saw a minor decline in share
of cashless rides
 With the economy slowly recovering
from de-monetisation and an
increase in liquidity in the market
has resulted in a slight increase in
cash as a mode of payment
Bearish
Bullish Neutral
Sub-Dimension Key Takeaways
Time Trend
Sub-Dimension
Rating: Q1-CY17
Share of cashless
rides
(Transaction %)
3
Unit Economics
0%
100%
Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17
Incentives spending was cut
sharply in the past quarter, giving a
push to the player’s profitability
agenda
 New Delhi and Bangalore saw the
biggest incentive drop in Q1’17
Incentive
(as a % of GBV)
1
Platform commissions remained
the same throughout Q1’17
 Industry did not look to tinker with
the existing commission rates
charged to drivers, and continued
to charge 20% in Q1’17
Take Rates
(as a % of GBV)
2
|
Lower driver incentive earnings coupled with fewer rides per day in the past
quarter led to a sharp drop in driver income
100
600
Q2'16 Q3 Q4 Q1'17
8.0
10.0
Q2'16 Q3 Q4 Q1'17
12
Source: RedSeer analysis
Driver incomes dipped sharply
the past quarter
 Ever decreasing ride incentives
forced a strong reduction in
driver take home incomes in the
period- resulting in driver strikes
Rides/day/driver dipped due to
drivers not being able to be on
road for long durations during
time of strikes
 Reduction in driver working hours
during strikes led to reduced no:
of rides/day/driver in Q1’17
Bearish
Bullish Neutral
Sub-Dimension Key Takeaways
Time Trend
Sub-Dimension
Rating: Q1-CY17
Rides/day/driver
1
Driver take-home
income
(In USD per month)
2
Driver Economics
| 13
Striking drivers meant that industry saw an increase in ETAs in the past
quarter; however, other operational metrics remained stable
Source: RedSeer analysis
0%
30%
Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17
Inspite of strikes, cab availability
was largely unchanged during the
last quarter
 This is due to better management
of supply to provide carpool rides
and meet the high customer
demand
Driver-side cancellations
remained stable
 Players increased the driver-side
penalties to reduce instances of
cancellations during the period of
strikes in January and February
ETA increased slightly in the past
quarter due to supply crunch
caused by strikes
 New Delhi and Bangalore saw
major increase in ETA due to
massive supply crunch in Q1’17
Bearish
Bullish Neutral
Sub-Dimension Key Takeaways
Time Trend
Sub-Dimension
Rating: Q1-CY17
Driver
Cancellations
(% of bookings)
ETA (in mins)
3
2
Cab Availability
(% of time)
1
Operational Performance
0
6
Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17
0%
100%
Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17
|
0%
50%
Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17
14
Despite increase in ETA, industry had a stable Consumer Satisfaction with
‘booking experience’; however, satisfaction with ride experience worsened
Source: RedSeer analysis
0%
60%
Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17
Inspite of the demand-supply
mismatch caused by strikes,
customer booking experience
remained broadly stable
 This was mainly due to discount
schemes rolled out in the quarter
providing cheap riding options to
consumers
Ride experience suffered in the
past quarter due to very low
customer experience scores on
driver courtesy and car quality
metrics
 Owing to strikes, industry was
struggling to maintain cab supply
in January
 The pressure to put cars on the
road led to fewer quality checks
on the cars- leading to dissatisfied
customers
Bearish
Bullish Neutral
Booking Experience
(As NPS Score)
1
Ride Experience
(As NPS Score)
2
Sub-Dimension Key Takeaways
Time Trend
Sub-Dimension
Rating: Q1-CY17
Consumer Satisfaction
|
On the regulatory side, the past quarter was largely uneventful; newly
enacted regulations had little or no impact on the sector
15
Source: RedSeer analysis
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
 Delhi HC bans surge pricing
 Centre decides to change laws to regulate
online cab Industry
 Karnataka government bans surge pricing
 Delhi Government bans surge pricing in April
 Supreme court bans all diesel taxis to run in
Delhi
 Maharashtra introduces its own set of laws
in Oct
 Supreme court allows surge pricing
 Ride hailing apps become legal in India
 Few cars impounded by police
 Surge still continued by
aggregators as usual
 Business impacted due to ban
on diesel taxis
 No impact of surge ban
 No major impact on business
as surge still continued by
aggregators
 Rules not complied in
Maharashtra
 Positive move for business
by the centre
Q1’17
 West Bengal instructed Uber to put panic
buttons in their cars
 Karnataka government temporarily banned
shared services in the state
 No major impact as both parties
reached a resolution soon and
shared services resumed in
Karnataka
Bearish
Bullish Neutral
Key Regulations Impact Impact Rating
Timeline
Regulatory Assessment
|
Contents
16
Appendix – Player Level Reports
C
Appendix - 2020 Scenario
B
Industry Review
A
|
98.0% 93.0%
2.0% 7.0%
2014-Beijing 2016-Beijing
Global Case Studies – China
Insights
17
China offers a successful example of a rapidly growing online mobility
market
RedSeer Analysis
98.0%
88.0%
2.0%
12.0%
2014-Shanghai 2016-Shanghai
Daily Total
Commuter
Trips A ->
13-14 Mn 15-16 Mn
A. Rail based and private car based local transport trips have not been included here. If Subways are included, the figure drops to about 5-6% in Beijing in 2016
6-7 Mn 8-10 Mn
 The China market as a whole
was doing 1-1.5% of local
commuting trips (excluding
subway and private cars)
through online channels in 2014
− This is similar to the Indian
market in 2016, which as a
whole is doing 1.2% online
trips currently- thus China
leads India market by two
years in online mobility
terms
 Didi completed a combined
0.25+ Mn rides a day in these
two cities in 2014 on an
average, but jumped to 1.5-2
Mn rides/day by 2016
2.India
1.China
Online Booked Trips Offline Booked Trips
Beijing Shanghai
|
Future Trends-India
Insights
18
For India, similar disruption of mainstream transport modes could see
the online mobility market growing 5x (in trip terms) by 2020
Source: 1. RedSeer report on the public transportation market in India (Sep 2016);
2. RedSeer online mobility reports- Published m-o-m; RedSeer Analysis
2015 2016 2020F
Pan India
Daily
Commuter
Trips A ->
110-140 Mn 150-170 Mn
120-150 Mn
A. Rail based and private car based local transport trips have not been included here
 Growth in online mobility market requires
disruption of mainstream transport modes -
This can be achieved by offering online
substitutes at the same price point e.g. bike
taxis for buses, carpooling for autos
 There are certain challenges that may
constrain the pan India share of online
mobility to 5% by 2020-
− Slower than expected adoption- Even
the most mature online mobility markets
like Bangalore and Delhi-NCR see only 2-
3% online trips currently. Even as these
cities grow rapidly in online ride %, India
as a whole may still lag at 5% by 2020 due
to competition from low cost services like
shared auto, growing subway network etc.
− Regulatory hurdles- Govt. bans on bike
taxis and online commuter bus start-ups
CAGR
50%
CAGR
~250%
2.India
1.China
Online Booked Trips Offline Booked Trips
5x rides
growth
3x rides
growth
|
Contents
19
Appendix – Player Level Reports
C
Appendix - 2020 Scenario
B
Industry Review – CY16
A
|
List of Paid Reports on Taxi Aggregator Market – Q1 CY17
List of Paid Reports Report Description (Price available on request)
Comprehensive Performance
Assessment
1
The report comprises of a comprehensive assessment of the key players Indian Online Cab Sector in
Q1 CY17. The performance of the key players have been judged using eight key dimensions and the
areas where each of the players performed well vs where they struggled have been identified.
Business Metrics Assessment
2 The report comprises of the performance of the players in terms of Rides & GBV in Q1 CY17. The
quarterly trends of change in the no. of Rides & GBV across the city tiers have been identified. And key
reasons for the same have been stated along with what the future holds for the players.
Operational Excellence
Benchmarking
3
The report assesses operational performance of the key players in the industry in Q1 CY17. It broadly
covers the quarterly trends in Cab Availability, ETA (estimated time of arrival) & Driver Cancellations.
And key reasons for the same have been stated along with what the future holds for the players.
Customer Perspective
4 The report comprises of the customer adoption and satisfaction with the players in Q1 CY17. On the
adoption side it covers the quarterly trends in growth in monthly active users and the adoption of car
pooling. On the satisfaction side it covers the satisfaction with booking and ride experience and the key
reasons for the same.
Driver Perspective
5
The report comprises of the driver behaviour and satisfaction in Q1 CY17 with regard to registered cab
supply and the no. of working days of the drivers. It includes players-wise quarterly trends on the supply
side. And key reasons for the same have been stated along with what the future holds for the players.
Driver P&L Assessment
6 The report comprises of the financials of the drivers working with the key players in Q1 CY17. It includes
the incentives, rides/day/driver & the driver take home salaries. It broadly covers the satisfaction of the
drivers and the amount of money they are able to make with each player.
All paid reports include data for Ola and Uber for the quarter of Q1 CY171
1. Reports with historical data since Jan 2016 available on request
20
| 21
Our Consumer Internet Sector Coverage – we cover 20+ sectors across the
Internet industry
J
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
C. Classifieds
E. Fintech
B. Online Mobility
D. Hyperlocal
A. E-tailing
1. Horizontals
2. Verticals (Fashion,
Furniture, etc.)
3. E-Logistics
1. Online Cabs
2. Bike Taxi
3. Inter City Buses
1. Horizontals
2. Verticals (Real
Estate, Jobs etc.)
1. Groceries
2. Services
A
B
C
D
E
G. Food Tech
H. Health
I. Education
J. Entertainment
F. Travel
Online Hotel
Aggregators and OTAs
Food Delivery
1. Booking Service
2. Online
Medicine/Treatment
Home Delivery
1. Online Testing
2. Online Tutoring
F
G
H
I
J
1. Mobile Wallets
2. Alternative Lending
Media and Video
Aggregation
|
www.redseerconsulting.com Query@redseerconsulting.com
2017 RedSeer Consulting Confidential and Proprietary Information
©
Flexible in Approach, Firm on Results
Thank You !
query@redseerconsulting.com
22
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State Of The Online Cabs Market

  • 1. www.redseerconsulting.com Query@redseerconsulting.com 2011 RedSeer Consulting Confidential `and Proprietary Information © | www.redseerconsulting.com Query@redseerconsulting.com 2017 RedSeer Consulting Confidential `and Proprietary Information © Flexible in Approach, Firm on Results Flexible in Approach, Firm on Results Q1-CY17 Edition State of the Online Cabs Market • A comprehensive performance review of the online cab aggregator market • Assessed through a regularly tracked set of performance indicators • Published quarterly 1 Published in May 2017
  • 2. | What is in this report? 2 1. This report includes a comprehensive assessment of Indian online cab sector performance across eight key dimensions 2. Each key dimension is rated on whether the sector performed above expectations (Bullish ), broadly as per expectation (Neutral ) or significantly worse than expectations (Bearish ) on that dimension 3. Each key dimension is further built up from multiple sub- dimensions, which are also rated for the sector using the above criteria RedSeer’s Integrated Research ApproachTM incorporating the following: 1. Tracks 50,000+ monthly online transactions 2. Primary Interviews with 1,000+ drivers in 10+ cities every quarter 3. Primary Interviews with 3,000+ customers every quarter Sector Assessment Approach Integrated Research ApproachTM Research Methodology
  • 3. | SN Key Dimension Sub-Dimensions 1 Rides & GBV performance 1. Ride trends 2. GBV trends 2 Driver Supply 1. Registered Cab Supply 2. No: of working days/month 3 Customer Adoption 1. Monthly active users 2. Repeat Usage measured via WAU/MAU= Share of monthly active users who are also active weekly 3. Adoption of carpooling 4 Unit Economics 1. Incentive as a % of GBV 2. Take Rates % 3. Share of cashless rides 5 Driver Economics 1. Rides/day/driver 2. Driver Take-home Income 6 Operational Performance 1. Cab Availability 2. ETA (in min) 3. Driver Cancellations 7 Customer Satisfaction 1. Booking Experience (As NPS score) 2. Ride Experience (As NPS score) 8 Regulatory Assessment 1. Support provided or obstacles created from recent regulatory changes Overall Performance Eight Key Dimensions for Assessing Sector Performance 3
  • 4. | Glossary 4 Key Word Description GBV Gross Booking Value- What the rider pays to the cabs aggregator Driver Incentives Additional payout made to drivers over the GBV value, by aggregator ETA Estimated Time of Arrival WAU And MAU Weekly and Monthly Active Users (on app) Cab Availability Whether any of Pool/share or Go/Micro/Mini/Prime is available Glossary Note 1. The report broadly covers the trends in Online Taxi Market in Q1 CY17 2. Trends in the offline taxi market are not covered in this report 3. Trends in the online and offline market for other transport modes e.g. bikes, shuttle buses and autos are also not covered in this report
  • 5. | 100 600 0% 100% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17 Driver Incentive Driver Income Executive Summary 5  After a long period of uninterrupted growth, Q1-CY17 saw a 5% decrease in the overall cabs bookings for the industry  The reason for decline was two fold– o Supply crunch caused by driver strikes across major cities in January and February (10% decline in no: of working days/month from Q4’16) o Flat or dropping consumer demand (in terms of MAUs for leading players)  Driver strikes were precipitated by a 45% q-o-q fall in driver income, caused by sharp reduction in ride incentives- which in turn was pushed by a growing industry focus on profitability  We believe that this quarter has been one of ‘stabilization’ for the industry, which has taken the much needed steps to rationalize its financials. While there has been a short term hit on industry growth, we expect growth to pickup again once the supply stabilizes and demand grows for services like carpooling Q1-CY17 was marked by a clear tussle between growth and profitability. Growing focus on profitability pushed players to cut down on driver incentives- a move which led to driver strikes across India, with the associated supply crunch contributing to a q-o-q fall in rides for the industry 142 136 5% Q4’16 Q1’17 Total completed rides for industry in Mn Driver Incentives (as a % of GBV) and Driver Income (In USD per month) State of the Online Cabs Market Q1-CY17- Executive Summary
  • 6. | Contents 6 Appendix – Player Level Reports C Appendix - 2020 Scenario B Industry Review A
  • 7. | Sector Assessment Scorecard: Q1-CY17 Performance 7 SN Key Dimension Industry Performance Assessment Rationale 1 Rides & GBV performance After multiple quarters of delivering growth, the online cabs market suffered a minor slowdown in Q1-CY17 2 Driver Supply Industry slowdown was primarily caused by supply crunch due to striking drivers- as reflected in fewer driver working days and lower cab supply 3 Customer Adoption Stagnating customer demand also played a role in growth slowdown- even as carpooling remained a bright spot 4 Unit economics While the market declined, there was an improvement in unit economics- as shown by a strong drop in driver incentive spending 5 Driver Economics Lower driver incentive earnings coupled with fewer rides per day in the past quarter led to a sharp drop in driver income 6 Operational Performance Striking drivers meant that industry saw an increase in ETAs in the past quarter; however, other operational metrics remained stable 7 Consumer Satisfaction Despite increase in ETA, industry had a stable Consumer Satisfaction with ‘booking experience’; however, satisfaction with ride experience worsened 8 Regulatory Assessment On the regulatory side, the past quarter was largely uneventful; newly enacted regulations had little or no impact on the sector 9 Overall Sector Performance Overall, the theme of the past quarter was stabilization and rationalization. Strong performance was seen in the area of unit economics while the industry was flat or declining on other parameters Bearish Bullish Neutral
  • 8. | 70 125 140 142 ~136 Q1 CY16 Q2 CY16 Q3 CY16 Q4 CY16 Q1 CY'17 8 Source: RedSeer analysis  The year started with a rapid 9% m-o-m growth in Q1  Launch of Ola Micro in March’16 helped in curbing Uber’s growth  Massive growth continued into Q2 driven by success in Micro  Industry crossed a milestone of 100 Mn rides in the quarter  Growth slowdown in Q3 was a result of the supply crunch caused by drivers leaving platforms due to supply clean- up and fraud reduction initiatives  Supply rationalization continued in Q4 which saw frequent disruptions in supply leading to the market remaining stagnant 80% 12% 2% ~5%  First ever drop in industry rides  Rides fall caused by reduced driver incentives leading to strikes and supply- demand mismatch After multiple quarters of delivering growth, the online cabs market suffered a minor slowdown in Q1-CY17 Indian Online Cabs Market- Ride Count (For Each Quarter, In Millions) Rides & GBV Performance
  • 9. | 9 Industry slowdown was primarily caused by supply crunch due to striking drivers- as reflected in fewer driver working days and lower cab supply Source: RedSeer analysis Bearish Bullish Neutral Sub-Dimension Key Takeaways Time Trend Sub-Dimension Rating: Q1-CY17 0 30 Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17 Decrease in # of working days for the drivers was a the primary cause of supply crunch in the past quarter • Working days reduction was caused by driver strikes in major cities • Metro cities with the lowest working days were New Delhi and Bangalore # of driver working days/month 1 0 0.6 Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17 Supply crunch situation was further exacerbated by drivers leaving online platforms entirely • This trend was precipitated largely by continuously dropping incentives and driver incomes • Drivers who left the online platforms either shifted into other (offline) driving jobs or changed professions entirely Registered Cab Supply (Millions) 2 Driver Supply
  • 10. | 0% 20% Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17 50 200 Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17 Player 1 Player 2 10 Stagnating customer demand also played a role in growth slowdown- even as carpooling remained a bright spot Source: RedSeer analysis Stagnation in consumer demand is reflected in the falling MAU numbers for the two major platforms • This indicates slowdown in addition of new users- itself an indicator of the metro markets moving towards saturation Carpooling saw a steady growth in Q1’17  Due to lower fares and greater convenience, carpooling kept on seeing growth, with the rides growing by ~9% q-o-q in Q1’17. Share of repeat users grew in the past quarter, again an indication of slowdown in new user addition  WAU/MAU broadly indicates the share of repeat users in the total user mix Bearish Bullish Neutral Carpooling Rides (as a % of total industry cab rides) Repeat Usage (Measured as WAU/MAU= Share of monthly active users who are also active weekly) 3 2 Sub-Dimension Key Takeaways Time Trend Sub-Dimension Rating: Q1-CY17 Monthly Active Users (On the app for leading platforms, in Millions) 1 Customer Adoption 45% 55% Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17
  • 11. | 0% 40% Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17 11 While the market declined, there was an improvement in unit economics- as shown by a strong drop in driver incentive spending Source: RedSeer analysis, AppAnnie data 0% 100% Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17 Q1’17 saw a minor decline in share of cashless rides  With the economy slowly recovering from de-monetisation and an increase in liquidity in the market has resulted in a slight increase in cash as a mode of payment Bearish Bullish Neutral Sub-Dimension Key Takeaways Time Trend Sub-Dimension Rating: Q1-CY17 Share of cashless rides (Transaction %) 3 Unit Economics 0% 100% Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17 Incentives spending was cut sharply in the past quarter, giving a push to the player’s profitability agenda  New Delhi and Bangalore saw the biggest incentive drop in Q1’17 Incentive (as a % of GBV) 1 Platform commissions remained the same throughout Q1’17  Industry did not look to tinker with the existing commission rates charged to drivers, and continued to charge 20% in Q1’17 Take Rates (as a % of GBV) 2
  • 12. | Lower driver incentive earnings coupled with fewer rides per day in the past quarter led to a sharp drop in driver income 100 600 Q2'16 Q3 Q4 Q1'17 8.0 10.0 Q2'16 Q3 Q4 Q1'17 12 Source: RedSeer analysis Driver incomes dipped sharply the past quarter  Ever decreasing ride incentives forced a strong reduction in driver take home incomes in the period- resulting in driver strikes Rides/day/driver dipped due to drivers not being able to be on road for long durations during time of strikes  Reduction in driver working hours during strikes led to reduced no: of rides/day/driver in Q1’17 Bearish Bullish Neutral Sub-Dimension Key Takeaways Time Trend Sub-Dimension Rating: Q1-CY17 Rides/day/driver 1 Driver take-home income (In USD per month) 2 Driver Economics
  • 13. | 13 Striking drivers meant that industry saw an increase in ETAs in the past quarter; however, other operational metrics remained stable Source: RedSeer analysis 0% 30% Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17 Inspite of strikes, cab availability was largely unchanged during the last quarter  This is due to better management of supply to provide carpool rides and meet the high customer demand Driver-side cancellations remained stable  Players increased the driver-side penalties to reduce instances of cancellations during the period of strikes in January and February ETA increased slightly in the past quarter due to supply crunch caused by strikes  New Delhi and Bangalore saw major increase in ETA due to massive supply crunch in Q1’17 Bearish Bullish Neutral Sub-Dimension Key Takeaways Time Trend Sub-Dimension Rating: Q1-CY17 Driver Cancellations (% of bookings) ETA (in mins) 3 2 Cab Availability (% of time) 1 Operational Performance 0 6 Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17 0% 100% Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17
  • 14. | 0% 50% Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17 14 Despite increase in ETA, industry had a stable Consumer Satisfaction with ‘booking experience’; however, satisfaction with ride experience worsened Source: RedSeer analysis 0% 60% Q1'16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'17 Inspite of the demand-supply mismatch caused by strikes, customer booking experience remained broadly stable  This was mainly due to discount schemes rolled out in the quarter providing cheap riding options to consumers Ride experience suffered in the past quarter due to very low customer experience scores on driver courtesy and car quality metrics  Owing to strikes, industry was struggling to maintain cab supply in January  The pressure to put cars on the road led to fewer quality checks on the cars- leading to dissatisfied customers Bearish Bullish Neutral Booking Experience (As NPS Score) 1 Ride Experience (As NPS Score) 2 Sub-Dimension Key Takeaways Time Trend Sub-Dimension Rating: Q1-CY17 Consumer Satisfaction
  • 15. | On the regulatory side, the past quarter was largely uneventful; newly enacted regulations had little or no impact on the sector 15 Source: RedSeer analysis Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4  Delhi HC bans surge pricing  Centre decides to change laws to regulate online cab Industry  Karnataka government bans surge pricing  Delhi Government bans surge pricing in April  Supreme court bans all diesel taxis to run in Delhi  Maharashtra introduces its own set of laws in Oct  Supreme court allows surge pricing  Ride hailing apps become legal in India  Few cars impounded by police  Surge still continued by aggregators as usual  Business impacted due to ban on diesel taxis  No impact of surge ban  No major impact on business as surge still continued by aggregators  Rules not complied in Maharashtra  Positive move for business by the centre Q1’17  West Bengal instructed Uber to put panic buttons in their cars  Karnataka government temporarily banned shared services in the state  No major impact as both parties reached a resolution soon and shared services resumed in Karnataka Bearish Bullish Neutral Key Regulations Impact Impact Rating Timeline Regulatory Assessment
  • 16. | Contents 16 Appendix – Player Level Reports C Appendix - 2020 Scenario B Industry Review A
  • 17. | 98.0% 93.0% 2.0% 7.0% 2014-Beijing 2016-Beijing Global Case Studies – China Insights 17 China offers a successful example of a rapidly growing online mobility market RedSeer Analysis 98.0% 88.0% 2.0% 12.0% 2014-Shanghai 2016-Shanghai Daily Total Commuter Trips A -> 13-14 Mn 15-16 Mn A. Rail based and private car based local transport trips have not been included here. If Subways are included, the figure drops to about 5-6% in Beijing in 2016 6-7 Mn 8-10 Mn  The China market as a whole was doing 1-1.5% of local commuting trips (excluding subway and private cars) through online channels in 2014 − This is similar to the Indian market in 2016, which as a whole is doing 1.2% online trips currently- thus China leads India market by two years in online mobility terms  Didi completed a combined 0.25+ Mn rides a day in these two cities in 2014 on an average, but jumped to 1.5-2 Mn rides/day by 2016 2.India 1.China Online Booked Trips Offline Booked Trips Beijing Shanghai
  • 18. | Future Trends-India Insights 18 For India, similar disruption of mainstream transport modes could see the online mobility market growing 5x (in trip terms) by 2020 Source: 1. RedSeer report on the public transportation market in India (Sep 2016); 2. RedSeer online mobility reports- Published m-o-m; RedSeer Analysis 2015 2016 2020F Pan India Daily Commuter Trips A -> 110-140 Mn 150-170 Mn 120-150 Mn A. Rail based and private car based local transport trips have not been included here  Growth in online mobility market requires disruption of mainstream transport modes - This can be achieved by offering online substitutes at the same price point e.g. bike taxis for buses, carpooling for autos  There are certain challenges that may constrain the pan India share of online mobility to 5% by 2020- − Slower than expected adoption- Even the most mature online mobility markets like Bangalore and Delhi-NCR see only 2- 3% online trips currently. Even as these cities grow rapidly in online ride %, India as a whole may still lag at 5% by 2020 due to competition from low cost services like shared auto, growing subway network etc. − Regulatory hurdles- Govt. bans on bike taxis and online commuter bus start-ups CAGR 50% CAGR ~250% 2.India 1.China Online Booked Trips Offline Booked Trips 5x rides growth 3x rides growth
  • 19. | Contents 19 Appendix – Player Level Reports C Appendix - 2020 Scenario B Industry Review – CY16 A
  • 20. | List of Paid Reports on Taxi Aggregator Market – Q1 CY17 List of Paid Reports Report Description (Price available on request) Comprehensive Performance Assessment 1 The report comprises of a comprehensive assessment of the key players Indian Online Cab Sector in Q1 CY17. The performance of the key players have been judged using eight key dimensions and the areas where each of the players performed well vs where they struggled have been identified. Business Metrics Assessment 2 The report comprises of the performance of the players in terms of Rides & GBV in Q1 CY17. The quarterly trends of change in the no. of Rides & GBV across the city tiers have been identified. And key reasons for the same have been stated along with what the future holds for the players. Operational Excellence Benchmarking 3 The report assesses operational performance of the key players in the industry in Q1 CY17. It broadly covers the quarterly trends in Cab Availability, ETA (estimated time of arrival) & Driver Cancellations. And key reasons for the same have been stated along with what the future holds for the players. Customer Perspective 4 The report comprises of the customer adoption and satisfaction with the players in Q1 CY17. On the adoption side it covers the quarterly trends in growth in monthly active users and the adoption of car pooling. On the satisfaction side it covers the satisfaction with booking and ride experience and the key reasons for the same. Driver Perspective 5 The report comprises of the driver behaviour and satisfaction in Q1 CY17 with regard to registered cab supply and the no. of working days of the drivers. It includes players-wise quarterly trends on the supply side. And key reasons for the same have been stated along with what the future holds for the players. Driver P&L Assessment 6 The report comprises of the financials of the drivers working with the key players in Q1 CY17. It includes the incentives, rides/day/driver & the driver take home salaries. It broadly covers the satisfaction of the drivers and the amount of money they are able to make with each player. All paid reports include data for Ola and Uber for the quarter of Q1 CY171 1. Reports with historical data since Jan 2016 available on request 20
  • 21. | 21 Our Consumer Internet Sector Coverage – we cover 20+ sectors across the Internet industry J A B C D E F G H I C. Classifieds E. Fintech B. Online Mobility D. Hyperlocal A. E-tailing 1. Horizontals 2. Verticals (Fashion, Furniture, etc.) 3. E-Logistics 1. Online Cabs 2. Bike Taxi 3. Inter City Buses 1. Horizontals 2. Verticals (Real Estate, Jobs etc.) 1. Groceries 2. Services A B C D E G. Food Tech H. Health I. Education J. Entertainment F. Travel Online Hotel Aggregators and OTAs Food Delivery 1. Booking Service 2. Online Medicine/Treatment Home Delivery 1. Online Testing 2. Online Tutoring F G H I J 1. Mobile Wallets 2. Alternative Lending Media and Video Aggregation
  • 22. | www.redseerconsulting.com Query@redseerconsulting.com 2017 RedSeer Consulting Confidential and Proprietary Information © Flexible in Approach, Firm on Results Thank You ! query@redseerconsulting.com 22 Bangalore HQ: Indiqube Sigma, Plot 3/B, 7th C Main, 3rd Block Koramangala, Bangalore - 560034 Mumbai Office: 25/b 4th Floor Usha Sadan Near Colaba PO, Colaba Mumbai - 400005 Dubai Office: 42Seer Technologies FZE G-D-Flex G089 C-Thub Dubai Silicon Oasis, Dubai, UAE Delhi Office: INHWA Business Center Sector 48, Sohana Road Gurgaon -122018 RedSeer is the leader in the internet advisory space 90% Indian GMV as clientele >USD 5 Bn Investments Diligence Completed 400+ Engagements in internet space 50+ Leading global funds as clientele