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Startup 2.0:A Silicon Valley StorySourcing, Selecting & Engineering Better Startups via Incubators, Metrics & Iterative Development Dave McClure, Founders Fund (twitter: @DaveMcClure) China Mobile Internet Exec Reception January2010
Angels &  Incubators ($0-10M) “Seed” Funds  ($10-50M) “Small” VC Funds  ($50-250M) “Large” VC Funds  (>$250M) Silicon Valley Startup Funding Ecosystem fbFund REV Y-Combinator TechStars FF Angel SoftTech (Clavier) Maples Investments Felicis (Senkut) SV Angel (Conway) FF I Union Square Ventures First Round Capital FF II Benchmark Sequoia
Topics Venture Capital 1.0 = *Broken Model* (for Internet Startups) M&A Trends: More, but Smaller Acquisitions, Very Few IPOs Incubators: Many Experiments (most FAIL, a few winners) Metrics: Define “Success”, Measure & Iterate (Fast + Feedback) Platforms 2.0: Social, Mobile, Micro, Inbox, SEO
[Pardon The Blatant Commercial]
            Dave McClure Blogger, Startup Advisor Internet Marketing,  Angel/VC Investor 2001-2009: ,[object Object]
Tech Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint
Advisor, Angel Investor: 40+ Startups
Conf. Organizer:Web 2.0, O’Reilly, Startonomics
Stanford Visiting Lecturer: Facebook, Startup Metrics80’s & 90’s: ,[object Object]
Developer: Windows Apps / SQL DB Admin
User Groups: E-Commerce, Internet, Client-Server
Engineer: Johns Hopkins ‘88, BS Eng / Applied MathGEEK, CODER, ENTREPRENEUR
Personal Investments (16 deals, 2004-2009, ~$25K avg)
Professional Investments (40 deals, Dec 2008 – Dec 2009, ~$75K avg) fbFund Incubator 22 deals ($850K)  ~$15-75K FF Angel LLC 18 deals ($1.8M) ~$50-250K
Founders Fund (Selected Investments, 2005-2009, range $1M-20M)
Venture Capital 1.0 = Too Big To FAILWIN?(at least for *Internet* Startups)
Angels &  Incubators ($0-10M) “Seed” Funds  ($10-50M) “Small” VC Funds  ($50-250M) “Large” VC Funds  (>$250M) Startup Funding Ecosystem fbFund  REV Y-Combinator TechStars FF Angel SoftTech (Clavier) Maples Investments Felicis (Senkut) SV Angel (Conway) FF I Union Square Ventures First Round Capital FF II Benchmark Sequoia
Venture Capital: Still Relevant? Good 4 big CAPex: Hardware Enterprise SW Clean Tech BioScience Wineries (?) Not So Great 4: ,[object Object]
Consulting Shops
Lifestyle Biz
Porn, Gambling,[object Object]
Startup Incubators Lots of Hot, Cool, Web 2.0!(+ lots of FAIL, too.)
Incubator 2.0 Model Method: Invest in startups using incremental investment, iterative development.  Start with lots of small experiments, filter out failure, and expand investment upon success. Incubator: $0-100K (“Micro-Seed”) Angel: $100-$1M (“Seed”) VC: $1M-$5M (“Series A, B”)
Incubator 2.0: Fast, Cheap, FAIL Incubators growing in popularity, acceptance Supportive ecosystem for startups (angels, VCs) Efficient use of investment capital ($0-100K) High fail rate (60-80%) => large initial sample size
Incubator 2.0: Education, Collaboration Emphasis on education, access to shared resources Success based on common platforms, physical proximity, open & collaborative environment Success based on fast fail, iteration & feedback Incremental investment; high-risk, but high-reward
fbFund REV fbFund REV: Facebook “Social” Incubator: invest in startups, apps, websites based on Facebook platform, Facebook Connect. 25 startups (2 non-profits) $850K total investment (~$35K each) 12-week mentorship program in Palo Alto, CA ~25 Advisors / Speakers (Entrepreneurs, Geeks, Investors)
fbFund REV fbFund REV: Facebook “Social” Incubator: invest in startups, apps, websites based on Facebook platform, Facebook Connect. Education on Tech, Design, Marketing, Business topics  Demo Day with >200 VC, Angel Investors Target: ~7 seed round investments ($250K-$1M) Success: ~8 startups funded >$250K, ~5 @ break-even
Investment #1: Micro-Seed(“Incubator”) Structure 1-3 founders $25K-$100K investment Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors Build Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP): Concept->Alpha, ~3-6 months Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works” Instrument Basic Dashboard, Conversion Metrics Test Cust. Adoption (10-1000 users) / Cust. Satisfaction (Scale: 1-10) Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use Develop Metrics & Filter for Follow-on Investment
Investment #2: Seed(“Angel”) Structure 2-5 person team $100K-$1M investment Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds Improve Product, Expand Market, Test Revenue: Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months Customer Sat ≥ 6 => Get to “Doesn’t Suck” Setup A/B Testing Framework, Optimize Conversion Test Marketing Campaigns, Customer Acquisition Channels  Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
Investment #3: Series A(“Venture”) Structure 5-10 person team $1M-$5M investment VC Investors Make Money, Get to Sustainability: Beta->Production, 12-18 months Customer Sat ≥ 8 => “It Rocks, I’ll Tell My Friends” MktgPlan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations Connect with Distribution Partners Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
Startup Metrics & The Lean StartupMeasure Stuff. Iterate. Rinse & Repeat.
The Startup Metrics Religion Progress ≠ Features (Less= More) Focus on User Experience (& Distribution) Measure Conversion; Compare 2+ Options Fast, Frequent Iteration (+ Feedback Loop) Keep it Simple & Actionable
Minimize TOTAL time through the loop IDEAS LEARN BUILD DATA CODE MEASURE Source: Eric Ries, The Lean Startup
The Startup Pyramid(Sean Ellis, Startup-Marketing.com) sean@12in6.com Blog: startup-marketing.com
AARRR! Startup Metrics for Pirates Acquisition:users come to site from various channels Activation: users enjoy 1st visit: "happy” experience Retention: users come back, visit site multiple times Referral:users like product enough to refer others Revenue: users conduct some monetization behavior (note: If you’re in a hurry, Google “Startup Metrics” & watch 5m video)

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Startup 2.0: A Silicon Valley Story (Jan 2010)

  • 1. Startup 2.0:A Silicon Valley StorySourcing, Selecting & Engineering Better Startups via Incubators, Metrics & Iterative Development Dave McClure, Founders Fund (twitter: @DaveMcClure) China Mobile Internet Exec Reception January2010
  • 2. Angels & Incubators ($0-10M) “Seed” Funds ($10-50M) “Small” VC Funds ($50-250M) “Large” VC Funds (>$250M) Silicon Valley Startup Funding Ecosystem fbFund REV Y-Combinator TechStars FF Angel SoftTech (Clavier) Maples Investments Felicis (Senkut) SV Angel (Conway) FF I Union Square Ventures First Round Capital FF II Benchmark Sequoia
  • 3. Topics Venture Capital 1.0 = *Broken Model* (for Internet Startups) M&A Trends: More, but Smaller Acquisitions, Very Few IPOs Incubators: Many Experiments (most FAIL, a few winners) Metrics: Define “Success”, Measure & Iterate (Fast + Feedback) Platforms 2.0: Social, Mobile, Micro, Inbox, SEO
  • 4. [Pardon The Blatant Commercial]
  • 5.
  • 6. Tech Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint
  • 8. Conf. Organizer:Web 2.0, O’Reilly, Startonomics
  • 9.
  • 10. Developer: Windows Apps / SQL DB Admin
  • 11. User Groups: E-Commerce, Internet, Client-Server
  • 12. Engineer: Johns Hopkins ‘88, BS Eng / Applied MathGEEK, CODER, ENTREPRENEUR
  • 13. Personal Investments (16 deals, 2004-2009, ~$25K avg)
  • 14. Professional Investments (40 deals, Dec 2008 – Dec 2009, ~$75K avg) fbFund Incubator 22 deals ($850K) ~$15-75K FF Angel LLC 18 deals ($1.8M) ~$50-250K
  • 15. Founders Fund (Selected Investments, 2005-2009, range $1M-20M)
  • 16. Venture Capital 1.0 = Too Big To FAILWIN?(at least for *Internet* Startups)
  • 17. Angels & Incubators ($0-10M) “Seed” Funds ($10-50M) “Small” VC Funds ($50-250M) “Large” VC Funds (>$250M) Startup Funding Ecosystem fbFund REV Y-Combinator TechStars FF Angel SoftTech (Clavier) Maples Investments Felicis (Senkut) SV Angel (Conway) FF I Union Square Ventures First Round Capital FF II Benchmark Sequoia
  • 18.
  • 21.
  • 22. Startup Incubators Lots of Hot, Cool, Web 2.0!(+ lots of FAIL, too.)
  • 23. Incubator 2.0 Model Method: Invest in startups using incremental investment, iterative development. Start with lots of small experiments, filter out failure, and expand investment upon success. Incubator: $0-100K (“Micro-Seed”) Angel: $100-$1M (“Seed”) VC: $1M-$5M (“Series A, B”)
  • 24. Incubator 2.0: Fast, Cheap, FAIL Incubators growing in popularity, acceptance Supportive ecosystem for startups (angels, VCs) Efficient use of investment capital ($0-100K) High fail rate (60-80%) => large initial sample size
  • 25. Incubator 2.0: Education, Collaboration Emphasis on education, access to shared resources Success based on common platforms, physical proximity, open & collaborative environment Success based on fast fail, iteration & feedback Incremental investment; high-risk, but high-reward
  • 26. fbFund REV fbFund REV: Facebook “Social” Incubator: invest in startups, apps, websites based on Facebook platform, Facebook Connect. 25 startups (2 non-profits) $850K total investment (~$35K each) 12-week mentorship program in Palo Alto, CA ~25 Advisors / Speakers (Entrepreneurs, Geeks, Investors)
  • 27. fbFund REV fbFund REV: Facebook “Social” Incubator: invest in startups, apps, websites based on Facebook platform, Facebook Connect. Education on Tech, Design, Marketing, Business topics Demo Day with >200 VC, Angel Investors Target: ~7 seed round investments ($250K-$1M) Success: ~8 startups funded >$250K, ~5 @ break-even
  • 28. Investment #1: Micro-Seed(“Incubator”) Structure 1-3 founders $25K-$100K investment Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors Build Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP): Concept->Alpha, ~3-6 months Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works” Instrument Basic Dashboard, Conversion Metrics Test Cust. Adoption (10-1000 users) / Cust. Satisfaction (Scale: 1-10) Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use Develop Metrics & Filter for Follow-on Investment
  • 29. Investment #2: Seed(“Angel”) Structure 2-5 person team $100K-$1M investment Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds Improve Product, Expand Market, Test Revenue: Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months Customer Sat ≥ 6 => Get to “Doesn’t Suck” Setup A/B Testing Framework, Optimize Conversion Test Marketing Campaigns, Customer Acquisition Channels Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
  • 30. Investment #3: Series A(“Venture”) Structure 5-10 person team $1M-$5M investment VC Investors Make Money, Get to Sustainability: Beta->Production, 12-18 months Customer Sat ≥ 8 => “It Rocks, I’ll Tell My Friends” MktgPlan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations Connect with Distribution Partners Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
  • 31. Startup Metrics & The Lean StartupMeasure Stuff. Iterate. Rinse & Repeat.
  • 32. The Startup Metrics Religion Progress ≠ Features (Less= More) Focus on User Experience (& Distribution) Measure Conversion; Compare 2+ Options Fast, Frequent Iteration (+ Feedback Loop) Keep it Simple & Actionable
  • 33. Minimize TOTAL time through the loop IDEAS LEARN BUILD DATA CODE MEASURE Source: Eric Ries, The Lean Startup
  • 34. The Startup Pyramid(Sean Ellis, Startup-Marketing.com) sean@12in6.com Blog: startup-marketing.com
  • 35. AARRR! Startup Metrics for Pirates Acquisition:users come to site from various channels Activation: users enjoy 1st visit: "happy” experience Retention: users come back, visit site multiple times Referral:users like product enough to refer others Revenue: users conduct some monetization behavior (note: If you’re in a hurry, Google “Startup Metrics” & watch 5m video)
  • 36. SEO Campaigns, Contests SEM PR Biz Dev Social Networks Affiliates Blogs Acquisition Apps & Widgets Direct, Tel, TV Referral Email Viral Loops Domains Activation Homepage / Landing Page Retention Emails & widgets Emails & Alerts Product Features Affiliates, Contests Blogs, RSS, News Feeds Biz Dev Revenue $$$ Ads, Lead Gen, Subscriptions, ECommerce System Events & Time-based Features AARRR!: 5-Step Startup Metrics Model Website.com
  • 37.
  • 38. Product: Building the “Right” Features, Getting Product Out Quickly, Testing for User Conversion / Adoption
  • 39.
  • 40. Role: Product / Engineering Q: What Features to Build? Why? When are you “Done”? A: Easy-to-Find, Fun/Useful, Unique Features that Increase Conversion(stop iterating when increase decelerates) Wireframes = Conversion Steps Measure, A/B Test, Iterate FAST (daily/weekly) Optimize for Conversion Improvement 80% on existing feature optimization 20% on new feature development
  • 41. Role: Marketing / Sales Q: What channels? Which users? Why? A: High Volume (#), Low Cost ($), High Conv (%) Design & Test Multiple Marketing Channels + Campaigns Select & Focus on Best-Performing Channels & Themes Optimize for conversion to target CTAs, not just site/landing page Match/Drive channel cost to/below revenue potential Low-Hanging Fruit: Blogs SEO/SEM Landing Pages Automated Emails
  • 43. Web 2.0 = Good Business 1) Take Existing Good Business Ideas 2) Add [a little] Technology Blogs, Twitter, Facebook Connect Email & SEO Social Networks & Friend/Follower lists Online Payments 3) Increase Distribution, Lower Customer Acquisition Cost with Internet PROFIT!
  • 44. Platform Viability Features Successful Platforms have 3 Things: 1) Features 2) Users 3) Money Users. . Money Profit Growth Nirvana Profitable Growth
  • 45. Platforms: HOT or NOT? Social: Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, MySpace? Mobile: iPhone, Android?, Palm? Comm: Twitter, IM/Chat, Skype, Meebo Inbox: Gmail, YahooMail, Hotmail?, AOL? Search: Google, Bing/Yahoo Payments: Amazon (1-Click), eBay (PayPal), Apple (iTunes), Facebook?, Google? Dev: Amazon (AWS), Google AppEngine, Ruby/Rails, Python/Django, etc Gaming: Zynga, Playdom, Playfish, RockYou, Slide, Other: SalesForce, Craigslist, Wikipedia, YouTube
  • 46. Summary VC 2.0 = Fewer, Smaller Funds (<$100M) Liquidity = More, Smaller Acquisitions (<$100M) Model = Singles (Ichiro), not Home Runs (Barry Bonds) Diligence = Lots of Little Checks (+ Metrics + Time) Incubators = Many Small Experiments (most FAIL), Education + Shared Resources, Incremental Investment Startup Metrics = Define, Measure, Iterate Platforms = Distribution + Monetization, not Technology