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 Presentación Ejecutiva:
Visión Global de Mercados y Opciones de Inversión
en Mercados Internacionales.
Oportunidades en Mercados Emergentes
Abril, 2015
Lic. Carlos Francisco Gómez Guzmán - Wealth Management Advisor
Resumen de Fundamentales en Mercados Emergentes
Lic. Carlos Francisco Gómez Guzmán - Wealth Management Advisor
Exposición de los ME a los Commodities y Défict de CC
 EM countries that tend to be net commodity
exporters with current account deficits have
seen their currencies hurt the most over the
past year.
 While domestic factors such as economic
policy, geopolitics and export characteristics
could contribute to a divergence in performance
in EM currencies, EM countries with strong
trade connections are poised to outperform.
 Markets with a current account surplus and with
export exposure to the U.S.—and especially to
the U.S. consumer—are expected to see greater
stability.
ME que serán Más Dañados por los Bajos Precios de los Commodities
 EM countries that tend to be net commodity exporters with
current account deficits have seen their currencies hurt the
most over the past year.
 Markets with a current account surplus and with export
exposure to the U.S.—and especially to the U.S. consumer—are
expected to see greater stability.
Bajos Precios Commodities y Petróleo crean Oportunidades de Diferenciación
 The EM can be split into two groups: commodity
importers and commodity exporters, where
commodity importers are typically exporters of
manufactured products.
 Commodity-dependent countries may take longer
to benefit from the cyclical upswing in developed
markets an environment where the marginal
demand for more commodities from countries such
as China is still very low and prices remain
subdued.
Along with Russia and Brazil, Chile, South Africa and
Indonesia are some of the most commodity-dependent
countries.
Commodity-driven gains helped these countries
achieve higher economic growth rates until 2011, but
this source of strength is now fading.
Cambio en la Composición de los Índices de Mercados Emergentes
It is also possible that the magnitude of commodities’
impact on EMs will be muted, in part, because the
weighting of commodities in EM indices has declined in
recent years.
 At the peak of the commodity supercycle in 2008,
commodities represented roughly one-third of
emerging markets from a market capitalisation
perspective.
 Since then, there has been a significant reduction in
the commodity weighting and a corresponding
improving share for domestic sectors, such as the
consumer sectors and financials. As such, the
commodity sectors, which represent a key risk for
EMs during periods of dollar strength, now make up
less than 20% of EM indices, a level not seen since
the start of the century.
Correlación en Mercados Emergentes con el US$
En el año 2015 se presentan desafíos para los ME con
la desincronización política monetaria global, un dólar
fuerte y una caída en los precios de las materias
primas.
 No todos los ME son iguales, sin embargo, los que
tienen fuertes fundamentos externos son propensos
a obtener mejores resultados.
 Estructuralmente, muchos países emergentes
todavía están en necesidad de reformas en sus
políticas económicas, la situación fiscal y deben
mejorar el entorno empresarial.
 Las tendencias a largo plazo para mercados
emergentes siguen siendo favorables.
Por ejemplo: las tendencias demográficas, como
aumento de la urbanización, generarán
oportunidades de negocios para las empresas
que desarrollan productos que puedan satisfacer
las necesidades locales.
Evolución en los ME a la Estabilidad Económica
 A pesar del reciente bajo performance, los ME
siguen siendo una alternativa de inversión
importante en una cartera de inversión. Sin
embargo, es precioso diferenciar y analizar los
diversos mercados emergentes y poner más
atención a las condiciones específicas de cada
país.
 Países con debilidad en sus fundamentales
externos tendrán un bajo performance en 2015
debido a que los afectará: 1. La normalización de la
FED y otros cambios cíclicos como, 2. La fortaleza
del dólar y 3. Los bajos precios de los
commodities.
ME que han implementado reformas políticas y
económicas estructurales enfrentarán
problemas en el corto plazo pero estarán
posicionados para un mejor desempeño futuro.
 La recuperación de la economía mundial
debe favorecer a la renta variable,
especialmente en ME que se benefician de un
mejor crecimiento global y están
atractivamente valorados.
Lic. Carlos Francisco Gómez Guzmán
- Wealth Management Advisor
Evolución en Regímenes de Tipo de Cambio en ME:
de Fijos a Flexibles desde 1995.
 Compared with the 1990s, EM countries have
adopted a more flexible exchange-rate
system, have increased their foreign
exchange (FX) reserves and have managed
their external debt in a more prudent
fashion.
 These are reflected by the fact that more EM
economies have successfully reduced their
countries’ short-term debt as a percentage
of foreign reserves.
 The credit ratings composition of EM debt (EMD)
indices, shows that while the composition of
each index slightly differs,
…all of the EMD indices are predominantly
rated as investment grade…
Reducción de la Vulnerabilidad ante Shocks Externos:
Short Term Debt a RMI
 More EM economies have successfully reduced their countries’ short-term debt as a percentage
of foreign reserves.
Perfil de Rating EMD: Predomina Investment Grade
 Mientras la composiciónn de
cada Indice difiere, todos
los Indices de Deuda de
Mercados Emergentes:
Tienen predominantemente
calificaciones de riesgo
de grado de inversion.
ME tienen Menores Niveles de Deuda y Mejor Nivel de
Crecimiento del PIB que los DMs
 1) The level of indebtedness of
sovereign countries;
 2) The countries’ growth rate; and
 3) The countries’ 10-year
government bond yields (as
represented by the size of the
bubble).
 What should be clear is that many
EMs carry less debt and exhibit
stronger growth than do the
majority of the DMs.
El Crecimiento del PIB en ME es casi el Doble que
el Crecimiento del PIB de DM (en los últimos 10 años).
A largo plazo la tendencia de urbanización creará
oportunidades de inversión
 The old days when the EM asset class
represented a homogenous play on
commodities and exports have changed.
Future EM growth isn’t likely to come only
from exports— either commodities or
manufactured goods—but also from
domestic demand.
 The growing populations, increasing
consumption and productivity gains in EMs
should continue to support economic growth.
 Ultimately, demand for services is expected to
benefit sectors such as health care,
financials and telecommunications.
 Population and urbanisation trends will
increase the need for housing and
consumer goods, including consumer
staples, as well as discretionary
products and consumer services such
as finance, health care, education and
entertainment.
A largo plazo la tendencia de urbanización creará
oportunidades de inversión
Impactos esperados en Mercados Emergentes ante
la Normalización de Federal Reserve.
Lic. Carlos Francisco Gómez Guzmán - Wealth Management Advisor
Lic. Carlos Francisco Gómez Guzmán - Wealth Management Advisor
Conclusion:
 Emerging market assets could also be
threatened by Fed tightening, although
the direction of the dollar is likely to
be particularly important in
determining the performance of EM
stocks.
 However, in all markets the key will
be to distinguish those assets
which can benefit most from
healthy growth and those for
reasons of valuation or interest-
sensitivity look most vulnerable to
rate increases.
Muchas Gracias por su Atención
Atentamente, Carlos F. Gómez G. Registered Broker No. 252
www.bolsacr.com
Lic. Carlos Francisco Gómez Guzmán - Wealth Management Advisor

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SFI - Resumen de Fundamentales en Mercados Emergentes

  • 1.  Presentación Ejecutiva: Visión Global de Mercados y Opciones de Inversión en Mercados Internacionales. Oportunidades en Mercados Emergentes Abril, 2015 Lic. Carlos Francisco Gómez Guzmán - Wealth Management Advisor
  • 2. Resumen de Fundamentales en Mercados Emergentes Lic. Carlos Francisco Gómez Guzmán - Wealth Management Advisor
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  • 20. Exposición de los ME a los Commodities y Défict de CC  EM countries that tend to be net commodity exporters with current account deficits have seen their currencies hurt the most over the past year.  While domestic factors such as economic policy, geopolitics and export characteristics could contribute to a divergence in performance in EM currencies, EM countries with strong trade connections are poised to outperform.  Markets with a current account surplus and with export exposure to the U.S.—and especially to the U.S. consumer—are expected to see greater stability.
  • 21. ME que serán Más Dañados por los Bajos Precios de los Commodities  EM countries that tend to be net commodity exporters with current account deficits have seen their currencies hurt the most over the past year.  Markets with a current account surplus and with export exposure to the U.S.—and especially to the U.S. consumer—are expected to see greater stability.
  • 22. Bajos Precios Commodities y Petróleo crean Oportunidades de Diferenciación  The EM can be split into two groups: commodity importers and commodity exporters, where commodity importers are typically exporters of manufactured products.  Commodity-dependent countries may take longer to benefit from the cyclical upswing in developed markets an environment where the marginal demand for more commodities from countries such as China is still very low and prices remain subdued. Along with Russia and Brazil, Chile, South Africa and Indonesia are some of the most commodity-dependent countries. Commodity-driven gains helped these countries achieve higher economic growth rates until 2011, but this source of strength is now fading.
  • 23. Cambio en la Composición de los Índices de Mercados Emergentes It is also possible that the magnitude of commodities’ impact on EMs will be muted, in part, because the weighting of commodities in EM indices has declined in recent years.  At the peak of the commodity supercycle in 2008, commodities represented roughly one-third of emerging markets from a market capitalisation perspective.  Since then, there has been a significant reduction in the commodity weighting and a corresponding improving share for domestic sectors, such as the consumer sectors and financials. As such, the commodity sectors, which represent a key risk for EMs during periods of dollar strength, now make up less than 20% of EM indices, a level not seen since the start of the century.
  • 24. Correlación en Mercados Emergentes con el US$ En el año 2015 se presentan desafíos para los ME con la desincronización política monetaria global, un dólar fuerte y una caída en los precios de las materias primas.  No todos los ME son iguales, sin embargo, los que tienen fuertes fundamentos externos son propensos a obtener mejores resultados.  Estructuralmente, muchos países emergentes todavía están en necesidad de reformas en sus políticas económicas, la situación fiscal y deben mejorar el entorno empresarial.  Las tendencias a largo plazo para mercados emergentes siguen siendo favorables. Por ejemplo: las tendencias demográficas, como aumento de la urbanización, generarán oportunidades de negocios para las empresas que desarrollan productos que puedan satisfacer las necesidades locales.
  • 25. Evolución en los ME a la Estabilidad Económica  A pesar del reciente bajo performance, los ME siguen siendo una alternativa de inversión importante en una cartera de inversión. Sin embargo, es precioso diferenciar y analizar los diversos mercados emergentes y poner más atención a las condiciones específicas de cada país.  Países con debilidad en sus fundamentales externos tendrán un bajo performance en 2015 debido a que los afectará: 1. La normalización de la FED y otros cambios cíclicos como, 2. La fortaleza del dólar y 3. Los bajos precios de los commodities. ME que han implementado reformas políticas y económicas estructurales enfrentarán problemas en el corto plazo pero estarán posicionados para un mejor desempeño futuro.  La recuperación de la economía mundial debe favorecer a la renta variable, especialmente en ME que se benefician de un mejor crecimiento global y están atractivamente valorados.
  • 26. Lic. Carlos Francisco Gómez Guzmán - Wealth Management Advisor Evolución en Regímenes de Tipo de Cambio en ME: de Fijos a Flexibles desde 1995.  Compared with the 1990s, EM countries have adopted a more flexible exchange-rate system, have increased their foreign exchange (FX) reserves and have managed their external debt in a more prudent fashion.  These are reflected by the fact that more EM economies have successfully reduced their countries’ short-term debt as a percentage of foreign reserves.  The credit ratings composition of EM debt (EMD) indices, shows that while the composition of each index slightly differs, …all of the EMD indices are predominantly rated as investment grade…
  • 27. Reducción de la Vulnerabilidad ante Shocks Externos: Short Term Debt a RMI  More EM economies have successfully reduced their countries’ short-term debt as a percentage of foreign reserves.
  • 28. Perfil de Rating EMD: Predomina Investment Grade  Mientras la composiciónn de cada Indice difiere, todos los Indices de Deuda de Mercados Emergentes: Tienen predominantemente calificaciones de riesgo de grado de inversion.
  • 29. ME tienen Menores Niveles de Deuda y Mejor Nivel de Crecimiento del PIB que los DMs  1) The level of indebtedness of sovereign countries;  2) The countries’ growth rate; and  3) The countries’ 10-year government bond yields (as represented by the size of the bubble).  What should be clear is that many EMs carry less debt and exhibit stronger growth than do the majority of the DMs.
  • 30. El Crecimiento del PIB en ME es casi el Doble que el Crecimiento del PIB de DM (en los últimos 10 años).
  • 31. A largo plazo la tendencia de urbanización creará oportunidades de inversión  The old days when the EM asset class represented a homogenous play on commodities and exports have changed. Future EM growth isn’t likely to come only from exports— either commodities or manufactured goods—but also from domestic demand.  The growing populations, increasing consumption and productivity gains in EMs should continue to support economic growth.  Ultimately, demand for services is expected to benefit sectors such as health care, financials and telecommunications.  Population and urbanisation trends will increase the need for housing and consumer goods, including consumer staples, as well as discretionary products and consumer services such as finance, health care, education and entertainment.
  • 32. A largo plazo la tendencia de urbanización creará oportunidades de inversión
  • 33. Impactos esperados en Mercados Emergentes ante la Normalización de Federal Reserve. Lic. Carlos Francisco Gómez Guzmán - Wealth Management Advisor
  • 34. Lic. Carlos Francisco Gómez Guzmán - Wealth Management Advisor
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  • 39. Conclusion:  Emerging market assets could also be threatened by Fed tightening, although the direction of the dollar is likely to be particularly important in determining the performance of EM stocks.  However, in all markets the key will be to distinguish those assets which can benefit most from healthy growth and those for reasons of valuation or interest- sensitivity look most vulnerable to rate increases.
  • 40. Muchas Gracias por su Atención Atentamente, Carlos F. Gómez G. Registered Broker No. 252 www.bolsacr.com Lic. Carlos Francisco Gómez Guzmán - Wealth Management Advisor