SlideShare a Scribd company logo
@THCapper
@THCapper
Search Science, Moz
@THCapper
@THCapper
Panda 4
@THCapper
Pre-Mobile-first?
@THCapper
Medic
@THCapper
Covid
@THCapper
@THCapper
Panda 4.0
95°
@THCapper
Panda 4.0
95°
“Typical”
@THCapper
@THCapper
Tom Shockley
CC BY 2.0
@THCapper
@THCapper
Agenda
Google’s motives
Types of update
What actually is a core update?
How will Google use updates in 2023?
@THCapper
@THCapper
Threats
@THCapper
Google was not
always so
dominant
@THCapper
@THCapper
@THCapper
@THCapper
Amazon
@THCapper
@THCapper
Amazon
AI
chatbot
@THCapper
@THCapper
Amazon
AI
chatbot
YMYL
@THCapper
@THCapper
Navigational
web search
Amazon
AI
chatbot
YMYL
@THCapper https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2022/11/amazon-alexa-is-a-colossal-failure-on-pace-to-lose-10-billion-this-year/
@THCapper
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2022/10/report-google-doubles-down-on-pixel-hardware-cuts-google-assistant-support/
@THCapper
@THCapper
Loss leaders
@THCapper
@THCapper
Loss leaders?
@THCapper
https://www.ft.com/content/2d48d982-80b2-49f3-8a83-f5afef98e8eb
@THCapper
https://www.businessinsider.com/google-management-issues-code-red-over-chatgpt-report-2022-12
@THCapper https://twitter.com/itstimconnors/status/1599544717943123969
@THCapper
@THCapper
Sometimes quite good
@THCapper
Google’s prescient AI content crackdown?
• HCU explicitly targeted AI
content
• Google’s guidelines have long
forbidden AI content
@THCapper
Google’s prescient AI content crackdown?
• HCU explicitly targeted AI
content
• Google’s guidelines have long
forbidden AI content
@THCapper
Google’s prescient AI content crackdown?
• HCU explicitly targeted AI
content
• Google’s guidelines have long
forbidden AI content
@THCapper
(There are surely many reasonable use cases?)
@THCapper
Twin threats
@THCapper
@THCapper
Navigational
web search
Amazon
AI
chatbot
YMYL
@THCapper
@THCapper
Going straight to the money terms
@THCapper
@THCapper
https://moz.com/blog/apple-search-
engine-whiteboard-friday
@THCapper
@THCapper
Agenda
Google’s motives
Types of update
What actually is a core update?
How will Google use updates in 2023?
@THCapper
@THCapper
Types of update
@THCapper
Specific
E.g. CWV, Mobilegeddon
Google is trying to change
our behaviour.
“X is now a ranking factor.”
Often slow / non-event
rollout.
@THCapper https://moz.com/blog/cwv-what-next
@THCapper
https://moz.com/blog/state-of-web-
and-core-web-vitals-part-one
@THCapper
https://moz.com/blog/state-of-web-
and-core-web-vitals-part-one
@THCapper
https://moz.com/blog/state-of-web-
and-core-web-vitals-part-one
@THCapper
https://moz.com/blog/state-of-web-
and-core-web-vitals-part-one
@THCapper
Specific
E.g. CWV, Mobilegeddon
Google is trying to change
our behaviour.
“X is now a ranking factor.”
Often slow / non-event
rollout.
@THCapper
Vague
E.g. Core updates
Google is telling us to
expect flux.
“Just make good content.”
“EAT”
Specific
E.g. CWV, Mobilegeddon
Google is trying to change
our behaviour.
“X is now a ranking factor.”
Often slow / non-event
rollout.
@THCapper
Vague
E.g. Core updates
Google is telling us to
expect flux.
“Just make good content.”
“EAT”
Specific
E.g. CWV, Mobilegeddon
Google is trying to change
our behaviour.
“X is now a ranking factor.”
Often slow / non-event
rollout.
Manipulate
you
Competitive
advantage
Vs
@THCapper
@THCapper
What is a HCU?
@THCapper
A splash of vagaries - like a Core update
https://developers.google.com/search/blog/2022/08/helpful-content-update
“How can you ensure you're creating content that
will be successful with our new update? By
following our long-standing advice and guidelines
to create content for people, not for search
engines.”
@THCapper
A splash of specifics - like Page Experience
https://developers.google.com/search/blog/2022/08/helpful-content-update
• Are you using extensive automation to produce
content on many topics?
…
• Does your content promise to answer a question
that actually has no answer…”
“
@THCapper
Some food for the tinfoil hats
“Does your content leave readers feeling like they
need to search again to get better information from
other sources?”
https://developers.google.com/search/blog/2022/08/helpful-content-update
https://moz.com/blog/click-
based-seo-engagement-
signals
@THCapper
Some slight overcooking
https://developers.google.com/search/blog/2022/08/helpful-content-update
“Any content — not just unhelpful content — on sites
determined to have relatively high amounts of
unhelpful content overall is less likely to perform well
in Search.”
@THCapper
Some slight overcooking
https://developers.google.com/search/blog/2022/08/helpful-content-update
“Any content — not just unhelpful content — on sites
determined to have relatively high amounts of
unhelpful content overall is less likely to perform well
in Search.”
(What is a site? Google has historically denied any domain-level
factors…)
@THCapper
@THCapper
So what kind of update is
this?
@THCapper
Some industry interpretations:
@THCapper
@THCapper
@THCapper
@THCapper
Some industry interpretations:
• No AI content, please
• Delete all your thin / boilerplate pages
This is a bit like how people react to pagespeed etc
updates.
@THCapper
Some industry interpretations:
• No AI content, please
• Delete all your thin / boilerplate pages
This is a bit like how people react to pagespeed etc
updates.
The non-rollout, so far, aligns with that too.
@THCapper https://moz.com/blog/helpful-content-update
@THCapper https://moz.com/blog/helpful-content-update
@THCapper
@THCapper
Q: Is HCU a Core Update?
A: No
@THCapper
@THCapper
Q: Can I safely ignore it?
A: More on this later
@THCapper
@THCapper
Agenda
Google’s motives
Types of update
What actually is a core update?
How will Google use updates in 2023?
@THCapper
@THCapper
What is a core update?
@THCapper
Just make good
content
KC Green
@THCapper
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
+20
+40
+60
+80
+100
www.wsj.com
@THCapper
@THCapper
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
+20
+40
+60
+80
+100
www.wsj.com
Aug ‘18
@THCapper
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
+20
+40
+60
+80
+100
www.wsj.com
Aug ‘18
Mar ‘19
@THCapper
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
+20
+40
+60
+80
+100
www.wsj.com
Aug ‘18
Mar ‘19 Jun ‘19
@THCapper
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
+20
+40
+60
+80
+100
www.wsj.com
Aug ‘18
Mar ‘19 Jun ‘19
Sep ‘19
@THCapper
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
+20
+40
+60
+80
+100
www.wsj.com
Aug ‘18
Mar ‘19 Jun ‘19
Sep ‘19
Jan ‘20
@THCapper
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
+20
+40
+60
+80
+100
www.wsj.com
Aug ‘18
Mar ‘19 Jun ‘19
Sep ‘19
Jan ‘20 May ‘20
@THCapper
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
+20
+40
+60
+80
+100
www.wsj.com
Aug ‘18
Mar ‘19 Jun ‘19
Sep ‘19
Jan ‘20 May ‘20 Dec ‘20
@THCapper
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
+20
+40
+60
+80
+100
www.wsj.com
Aug ‘18
Mar ‘19 Jun ‘19
Sep ‘19
Jan ‘20 May ‘20 Dec ‘20 Jun ‘21
@THCapper
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
+20
+40
+60
+80
+100
www.wsj.com
Aug ‘18
Mar ‘19 Jun ‘19
Sep ‘19
Jan ‘20 May ‘20 Dec ‘20 Jun ‘21 Jul ‘21
@THCapper
0
-20
-40
-60
+20
+40
+60
+80
Aug ‘18
Mar ‘19 Jun ‘19
Sep ‘19
Jan ‘20 May ‘20 Dec ‘20 Jun ‘21 Jul ‘21
Nov ‘21
www.wsj.com visibility in Mozcast corpus
@THCapper
May ‘22
@THCapper
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
+20
+40
+60
+80
+100
www.wsj.com
Aug ‘18
Mar ‘19 Jun ‘19
Sep ‘19
Jan ‘20 May ‘20 Dec ‘20 Jun ‘21 Jul ‘21
Nov ‘21
May ‘22
@THCapper
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
+20
+40
+60
+80
+100
www.cnbc.com
Aug ‘18 Mar ‘19 Jun ‘19 Sep ‘19
Jan ‘20 May ‘20 Dec ‘20
Jun ‘21
Jul ‘21
Nov ‘21 May ‘22
@THCapper
-50
-100
-150
-200
0
+50
+100
Aug ‘18
Mar ‘19 Jun ‘19 Sep ‘19 Jan ‘20
May ‘20 Dec ‘20 Jun ‘21
Jul ‘21
Nov ‘21
www.reuters.com visibility in Mozcast corpus
@THCapper
@THCapper
@THCapper
EAT
@THCapper
0
-500
-1000
+500
+1000
+1500
+2000
www.nhs.uk
Jan ‘20 May ‘20
Dec ‘20 Jun ‘21
Jul ‘21
Nov ‘21
May ‘22
@THCapper
@THCapper
@THCapper
@THCapper
Liam Quin
CC BY 3.0
@THCapper
@THCapper
How can this be
Aka the myth of winning every time
@THCapper
@THCapper
Deliberate confusion
@THCapper
@THCapper
@THCapper
Deliberate confusion X
@THCapper
@THCapper
Deliberate confusion X
Google KPIs
@THCapper
Google has its own KPIs
@THCapper
Google has its own KPIs
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/g
oogle-tests-changes-to-its-search-
algorithm-how-search-works.html
@THCapper
Google has its own KPIs
https://developers.google.com/search/blog/2019/08/core-updates
@THCapper
Google has its own KPIs
https://developers.google.com/search/blog/2019/08/core-updates
@THCapper
@THCapper
Deliberate confusion X
Google KPIs
@THCapper
@THCapper
Deliberate confusion X
Google KPIs
Return of the refresh
@THCapper
@THCapper
The return of the refresh
@THCapper
https://www.webpronews.com/matt-cutts-googles-updates-are-car-parts-data-refreshes-are-gas/
https://twitter.com/mattcutts/status/254335294063656960
@THCapper
The return of the refresh
https://developers.google.com/search/blog/2019/08/core-updates
“Content that was impacted by one might not
recover—assuming improvements have been
made—until the next broad core update is
released.”
@THCapper
@THCapper
Implications of refresh
Competing sites make gradual improvements, but
see no gains
@THCapper
@THCapper
Implications of refresh
Competing sites make gradual improvements, but
see no gains
Core update arrives, they are suddenly rewarded
@THCapper
@THCapper
Implications of refresh
Competing sites make gradual improvements, but
see no gains
Core update arrives, they are suddenly rewarded
It’s a zero sum game: if they go up, you come down
@THCapper
You
Them
@THCapper
You
Them
Working on
authority of
authors
@THCapper
You
Them
Improve depth &
accuracy of
content
@THCapper
You
Them
Refresh
@THCapper
You
Them
Refresh
@THCapper
You
Them
Refresh
“Well, that
was random”
Working on
authority of
authors
Improve depth
& accuracy of
content
@THCapper
@THCapper
Deliberate confusion X
Google KPIs
Return of the refresh
@THCapper
@THCapper
Who should care?
@THCapper
@THCapper
About 90% of sites
@THCapper
Sites impacted N times by Core Updates
0%
12%
6%
2%
4%
8%
10%
14%
16%
0 8
4 6
2
1 3 5 7 9 10 11
@THCapper
Sites impacted N times by Core Updates
0%
12%
6%
2%
4%
8%
10%
14%
16%
0 8
4 6
2
1 3 5 7 9 10 11
@THCapper
Sites impacted N times by Core Updates
0%
12%
6%
2%
4%
8%
10%
14%
16%
0 8
4 6
2
1 3 5 7 9 10 11
@THCapper
Sites impacted N times by Core Updates
0%
12%
6%
2%
4%
8%
10%
14%
16%
0 8
4 6
2
1 3 5 7 9 10 11
@THCapper
Sites impacted N times by Core Updates
0%
12%
6%
2%
4%
8%
10%
14%
16%
0 8
4 6
2
1 3 5 7 9 10 11
@THCapper
Sites impacted N times by Core Updates
0%
12%
6%
2%
4%
8%
10%
14%
16%
0 8
4 6
2
1 3 5 7 9 10 11
@THCapper
Sites impacted N times by Core Updates
0%
12%
6%
2%
4%
8%
10%
14%
16%
0 8
4 6
2
1 3 5 7 9 10 11
~20%
@THCapper
@THCapper
About 90% of sites
Not only YMYL
@THCapper
thepointsguy.com
www.monsterhouseplans.com
www.teepublic.com
www.engadget.com
www.chicagotribune.com
www.essensedesigns.com
pinchofyum.com
www.hidden247.com
www.houseplans.net
www.clearblue.com
nypost.com
www.cnbc.com
www.zazzle.com
themortgagereports.com
www.123greetings.com
www.oregonlive.com
www.polygon.com
examine.com
www.carsforsale.com
www.yellowpages.com
www.androidcentral.com
www.zabasearch.com
www.reddit.com
portland.craigslist.org
@THCapper
@THCapper
About 90% of sites
Not only YMYL
Most sites see both
gains & losses
@THCapper
Sites affected by 4+ Core Updates
All positive
All negative
Mixed
41 37
1,520
@THCapper
@THCapper
Core updates:
Remember to zoom out
@THCapper
-50
-100
-150
-200
0
+50
+100
+150
www.reuters.com visibility in Mozcast corpus
Aug ‘18
Mar ‘19 Jun ‘19 Sep ‘19 Jan ‘20
May ‘20 Dec ‘20 Jun ‘21
Jul ‘21
Nov ‘21
@THCapper
@THCapper
0
-500
-1000
+500
+1000
+1500
+2000
www.nhs.uk
Jan ‘20 May ‘20
Dec ‘20 Jun ‘21
Jul ‘21
Nov ‘21
May ‘22
@THCapper
0
+500
+1000
+1500
+2000
www.nhs.uk
Jan ‘20 May ‘20
Dec ‘20 Jun ‘21
Jul ‘21
Nov ‘21
May ‘22
@THCapper
+2000
www.nhs.uk
@THCapper
@THCapper
Don’t time the market
@THCapper
@THCapper
@THCapper
@THCapper
Agenda
Google’s motives
Types of update
What actually is a core update?
How will Google use updates in 2023?
@THCapper
@THCapper
Google’s direction
@THCapper
@THCapper
AI as a pollutant
AI as a competitor
Bottom of funnel
@THCapper
Google’s prescient AI content crackdown
• HCU explicitly targeted AI
content
• Google’s guidelines have long
forbidden AI content
@THCapper
Many SEOs report increasing underperformance for AI-
written content
@THCapper
@THCapper
Don’t underestimate HCU
@THCapper
https://moz.com/blog/state-of-web-
and-core-web-vitals-part-one
@THCapper
@THCapper
@THCapper Zeh fernando
@THCapper
@THCapper
AI as a pollutant
AI as a competitor
Bottom of funnel
@THCapper
Which result is better?
@THCapper
Which result is better?
@THCapper
ChatGPT is great at code queries
@THCapper
@THCapper
Problems
Cost
ChatGTP-like results are
expensive to produce
@THCapper
@THCapper
Problems
Cost
ChatGTP-like results are
expensive to produce
Attribution
This has been a sore point
for Google before
@THCapper
https://searchengineland.com/googles-impressive-
conversational-search-goes-live-on-chrome-160445
@THCapper
Google Bard
https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/story/google-was-hesitant-alphabet-
chairman-opens-up-about-chatgpt-rival-bard-370159-2023-02-14
@THCapper
V1 is a SERP feature
Track accordingly
@THCapper
@THCapper
AI as a pollutant
AI as a competitor
Bottom of funnel
@THCapper
Holding ground as the one-stop shop
@THCapper
Expect search app-lets
• Google already does this for weather, calculator,
translate, flights, etc
• There is implicit recognition that web search is not the
answer for every query
@THCapper
Product Updates
Google has an unusual laser-focus on product reviews as
a vertical
@THCapper
Expect even more focus on domain expertise
@THCapper
@THCapper
Takeaways:
4 key challenges
@THCapper
Challenges
1. Complex SERPs
2. Google emphasises
attribution & human-
written content
3. Google as one-stop
shop
4. Constant flux
SEO strategy
@THCapper
Challenges SEO strategy
1. Thorough tracking &
KW prioritisation
1. Complex SERPs
2. Google emphasises
attribution & human-
written content
3. Google as one-stop
shop
4. Constant flux
@THCapper
Challenges SEO strategy
1. Thorough tracking &
KW prioritisation
2. Focus on brand &
authorship
1. Complex SERPs
2. Google emphasises
attribution & human-
written content
3. Google as one-stop
shop
4. Constant flux
@THCapper
Challenges SEO strategy
1. Thorough tracking &
KW prioritisation
2. Focus on brand &
authorship
3. Your site as a
destination
1. Complex SERPs
2. Google emphasises
attribution & human-
written content
3. Google as one-stop
shop
4. Constant flux
@THCapper
Challenges SEO strategy
1. Thorough tracking &
KW prioritisation
2. Focus on brand &
authorship
3. Your site as a
destination
4. Play the long game
1. Complex SERPs
2. Google emphasises
attribution & human-
written content
3. Google as one-stop
shop
4. Constant flux
@THCapper
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