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SEEING AROUND CORNERS:
How to Spot Technology Trends and Make Them Happen
@erik_schon
Managing Director, Nordics
Erlang Solutions
Emerging Tech Beat Conference
October 15, 2019
Stockholm
How do you see around corners?
@erik_schon #ETB19
@erik_schon #ETB19
@erik_schon #ETB19
@erik_schon #ETB19
We provide world-class expertise in building
innovative, scalable and resilient systems
evolving the Erlang/Elixir open-source eco-system
@erik_schon #ETB19
We’re hiring!
2.0 YEARS OF ERLANG SOLUTIONS
© 1999-2019 Erlang Solutions Ltd
@erik_schon
Executive
Strategist
Performance Coach
Team Player
Engineer
@erik_schon #ETB19
How do you see around corners?
@erik_schon #ETB19
@erik_schon #ETB19
@erik_schon #ETB19
2.0 YEARS OF ERLANG SOLUTIONS
© 1999-2019 Erlang Solutions Ltd
Forget the past, embrace the future
Stay true to your core competencies
Bring in diverse perspectives
Rita
Gunther
McGrath
@erik_schon #ETB19
“The future is
already here –
it's just not
evenly distributed.”
William Gibson
1. How to Spot Technology Trends:
SUPERTRENDS
@erik_schon #ETB19
Trends Spotted by Strategist Simon Wardley 2014
Simon Wardley @swardley@erik_schon #ETB19
War: disruptive industrialization of products into commodities and/or utilities
Trends Spotted by Futurist Lars Tvede 2019:
SUPERTRENDS
TECH SOCIETY
Scientific Activity
Doubling Every 15 Years
Digitalization
Programming
Biology
Artificial Intelligence and
Quantum Computers
Sensors and Internet
Everywhere
New Forms of Organizations and
Ways of Working
Bright Environmentalism
Changed
Labour Markets
and Needs
Granular Markets
Smart Money
Executable Contracts
Increased Access to
Exciting Experiences
Lars Tvede @larstvede@erik_schon #ETB19
Supertrends app
supertrends.com
@SupertrendsApp
SUPERTRENDS:
Crowdsourcing Future Predictions from Community!
@erik_schon #ETB19
Which events?
When?
Significance?
Impact?
Experts?
2. How to make Technology Trends Happen:
WARDLEY MAPS
“As for the future, your task is not
to foresee it, but to enable it.”
Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
@erik_schon #ETB19
Katya Knyazeva
@erik_schon #ETB19
Characteristics
of a Map
Visual
Context-specific
Position
Components
Anchor
Movement
X
How can we
do this for
technology
and business?
Simon Wardley @swardley
@erik_schon #ETB19
Wardley Maps
Visualize evolution
and guide choices
Simon Wardley @swardley
What do our customers need?
Where’s our market position?
Where’s competition today/tomorrow?
Where’s technology today/tomorrow?
Where do we focus?
What moves do we make,
e.g. in-house/off-the-shelf/outsource?
What capabilities do we have/need?
How do we work today/tomorrow
How do we organize today/tomorrow?
@erik_schon #ETB19
Wardley Maps
Visualize evolution
and guide choices
Visual
Context-specific
Movement
(Evolution)
Position
Component
Anchor
(User Needs)
Simon Wardley @swardley@erik_schon #ETB19
Wardley Maps
Expected market changes
Focus
Outsource
Outsource
In-House
In-House
Off-the-Shelf
Off-the-Shelf
Off-the-Shelf
EXAMPLE: Gaming
Visualize evolution
and guide choices
Howard Rees @Howard_Rees@erik_schon #ETB19
2.0 YEARS OF ERLANG SOLUTIONS
© 1999-2019 Erlang Solutions Ltd
To See and Enable a Bright Future ...
Smart Tools + Human Collaboration = ❤
SUPERTRENDS + Crowd Sourcing = ❤
WARDLEY MAPS + Teamwork = ❤
@erik_schon #ETB19
www.erlang-solutions.com
ESL 2016 | Internal use only
www.erlang-solutions.com
ESL 2019 | Internal use only
The way to predict the future
is to create it collaboratively -
guided by e.g SUPERTRENDS
and WARDLEY MAPS
@erik_schon #ETB19
2.0 YEARS OF ERLANG SOLUTIONS
© 1999-2019 Erlang Solutions Ltd
THANK YOU!
Q&A
Erik Schön
Managing Director, Nordics @ Erlang Solutions
@erik_schon
2.0 YEARS OF ERLANG SOLUTIONS
© 1999-2019 Erlang Solutions Ltd
Thanks for Inspiration!
Melissa
Perri
Rita
Gunther
McGrath
Nilofer
Merchant
Chet
Richards
Simon
Wardley
Stockholm
Lean Coffee
Roger
Martin
Lars
Tvede
@erik_schon #ETB19
2.0 YEARS OF ERLANG SOLUTIONS
© 1999-2019 Erlang Solutions Ltd
For Further Learning
Blogs
McDermott: Maturity Mapping
McGrath: How to Stop Making Assumptions
Rees: An Idiot’s Adventures in Wardley Mapping
Tvede: There is No End to Innovation
Wardley: An Introduction to Wardley Mapping
Wardley: Of Wonders and Disruption
Books
McGrath: Seeing Around Corners
Schön: The Art of Strategy – Steps Towards Business Agility
Tvede: Supertrends in Technology
Wardley: Wardley Maps
Videos
Lamb: Investing in Innovation
McGrath: 8 Practices That Help You See Around Corners
Schön: The Art of Strategy – Steps Towards Business Agility
Wardley: Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones
@erik_schon #ETB19

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Seeing Around Corners: How to Spot Technology Trends and Make Them Happen - Guided by Supertrends and Wardley Maps

  • 1. SEEING AROUND CORNERS: How to Spot Technology Trends and Make Them Happen @erik_schon Managing Director, Nordics Erlang Solutions Emerging Tech Beat Conference October 15, 2019 Stockholm
  • 2. How do you see around corners? @erik_schon #ETB19
  • 6. We provide world-class expertise in building innovative, scalable and resilient systems evolving the Erlang/Elixir open-source eco-system @erik_schon #ETB19 We’re hiring!
  • 7. 2.0 YEARS OF ERLANG SOLUTIONS © 1999-2019 Erlang Solutions Ltd @erik_schon Executive Strategist Performance Coach Team Player Engineer @erik_schon #ETB19
  • 8. How do you see around corners? @erik_schon #ETB19
  • 11. 2.0 YEARS OF ERLANG SOLUTIONS © 1999-2019 Erlang Solutions Ltd Forget the past, embrace the future Stay true to your core competencies Bring in diverse perspectives Rita Gunther McGrath @erik_schon #ETB19
  • 12. “The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed.” William Gibson 1. How to Spot Technology Trends: SUPERTRENDS @erik_schon #ETB19
  • 13. Trends Spotted by Strategist Simon Wardley 2014 Simon Wardley @swardley@erik_schon #ETB19 War: disruptive industrialization of products into commodities and/or utilities
  • 14. Trends Spotted by Futurist Lars Tvede 2019: SUPERTRENDS TECH SOCIETY Scientific Activity Doubling Every 15 Years Digitalization Programming Biology Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computers Sensors and Internet Everywhere New Forms of Organizations and Ways of Working Bright Environmentalism Changed Labour Markets and Needs Granular Markets Smart Money Executable Contracts Increased Access to Exciting Experiences Lars Tvede @larstvede@erik_schon #ETB19
  • 15. Supertrends app supertrends.com @SupertrendsApp SUPERTRENDS: Crowdsourcing Future Predictions from Community! @erik_schon #ETB19 Which events? When? Significance? Impact? Experts?
  • 16. 2. How to make Technology Trends Happen: WARDLEY MAPS “As for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to enable it.” Antoine de Saint-Exupéry @erik_schon #ETB19
  • 18. Characteristics of a Map Visual Context-specific Position Components Anchor Movement X How can we do this for technology and business? Simon Wardley @swardley @erik_schon #ETB19
  • 19. Wardley Maps Visualize evolution and guide choices Simon Wardley @swardley What do our customers need? Where’s our market position? Where’s competition today/tomorrow? Where’s technology today/tomorrow? Where do we focus? What moves do we make, e.g. in-house/off-the-shelf/outsource? What capabilities do we have/need? How do we work today/tomorrow How do we organize today/tomorrow? @erik_schon #ETB19
  • 20. Wardley Maps Visualize evolution and guide choices Visual Context-specific Movement (Evolution) Position Component Anchor (User Needs) Simon Wardley @swardley@erik_schon #ETB19
  • 21. Wardley Maps Expected market changes Focus Outsource Outsource In-House In-House Off-the-Shelf Off-the-Shelf Off-the-Shelf EXAMPLE: Gaming Visualize evolution and guide choices Howard Rees @Howard_Rees@erik_schon #ETB19
  • 22. 2.0 YEARS OF ERLANG SOLUTIONS © 1999-2019 Erlang Solutions Ltd To See and Enable a Bright Future ... Smart Tools + Human Collaboration = ❤ SUPERTRENDS + Crowd Sourcing = ❤ WARDLEY MAPS + Teamwork = ❤ @erik_schon #ETB19
  • 23. www.erlang-solutions.com ESL 2016 | Internal use only www.erlang-solutions.com ESL 2019 | Internal use only The way to predict the future is to create it collaboratively - guided by e.g SUPERTRENDS and WARDLEY MAPS @erik_schon #ETB19
  • 24. 2.0 YEARS OF ERLANG SOLUTIONS © 1999-2019 Erlang Solutions Ltd THANK YOU! Q&A Erik Schön Managing Director, Nordics @ Erlang Solutions @erik_schon
  • 25. 2.0 YEARS OF ERLANG SOLUTIONS © 1999-2019 Erlang Solutions Ltd Thanks for Inspiration! Melissa Perri Rita Gunther McGrath Nilofer Merchant Chet Richards Simon Wardley Stockholm Lean Coffee Roger Martin Lars Tvede @erik_schon #ETB19
  • 26. 2.0 YEARS OF ERLANG SOLUTIONS © 1999-2019 Erlang Solutions Ltd For Further Learning Blogs McDermott: Maturity Mapping McGrath: How to Stop Making Assumptions Rees: An Idiot’s Adventures in Wardley Mapping Tvede: There is No End to Innovation Wardley: An Introduction to Wardley Mapping Wardley: Of Wonders and Disruption Books McGrath: Seeing Around Corners Schön: The Art of Strategy – Steps Towards Business Agility Tvede: Supertrends in Technology Wardley: Wardley Maps Videos Lamb: Investing in Innovation McGrath: 8 Practices That Help You See Around Corners Schön: The Art of Strategy – Steps Towards Business Agility Wardley: Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones @erik_schon #ETB19