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Redesigning Finance:
Pathways to a Resilient Future
        San Francisco, CA
            August 9, 2012
        http://pricetags.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/800px-london_millenium_wobbly_bridge1.jpg
1. Context:
Not your grandmother’s SRI/ESG talk


2. Long View Implications for Investors:
This time IS different


3. Public Policy Implications:
Not for today
Anyone who believes
exponential growth can go on
forever in a finite world is either
a madman or an economist.

    - Kenneth Boulding , Economist, Quaker,
    Co-Creator of General Systems Theor y
The most powerful force in the
universe is compound interest.

                 - Albert
Einstein*
May 30, 2011
Exponential growth leads to ecosystem crisis




”Safe Operating Space”, J. Rockstrom, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis
Ecological Overshoot: We use 1.5 planets




   ”Footprint Network.org
We know what sustainability looks like

Sustainability                Optimum


100%




                                              Collapse of
 0%                                           Financial System

                 Resilience                            Efficiency

                                Source: Lietaer, Ulanowicz, Goerner 2008
Economic What’sDesiredwith this picture?
                 wrong Outcome
         Efficiency



          Finance
               Economy

                    Planet
Lost in finance: So clever, so ignorant


  Our economy has become an anti-
  economy, a financial system
  without a sound economic basis
  and without economic virtues.
                          - Wendell Berry
Money, Banking, Finance & Investment:
 Designed for growth
Landing the plane will be a turbulent affair
Stranded Assets: our $20 T “Big Choice”

   • 2 degree warming limit: 565 GtC02
   • “Proved Reserves” have 5X this amount
   • 74% owned by States, 24% by companies

    At current market value, $20 trillion choice

Source: Potsdam Institute and “Unburnable Carbon”, Carbon Tracker Report
$20 Trillion of denial goes a long way…
Ecological overshoot = Financial Overshoot

 What’s the off balance sheet ecological debt?

 What’s the P/E of a “steady state” economy?

 What’s the debt capacity of the steady state?

 What’s the unfunded pension liability of a SS?

 The sustainable payout of a SS endowment?
Financial reform: Rearranging deckchairs




     May 26, 2011
1. Context:
Not your grandmother’s SRI/ESG talk


2. Long View Implications for Investors:
This time IS different
Towards a Regenerative Economy


•   Holistic frame: nature as model
•   Redefine wealth: natural/social capital
•   The humble retreat of finance
•   Public interest in capital investment:
     All investment has IMPACT
What’s different this time

 •   Schumpeter’s “creative destruction”
     on steroids
 •   MPT built on flawed assumptions
 •   Index benchmarking and tracking
     strategies exposed
 •   Diversification often a mirage
ESG framework: Integrated reporting




Unparalleled Leadership: Jochen Zeitz
2010 Earnings: Euro 202mm
2010 “E P&L”: (Euro 145 mm)
Investment principles for the
Anthropocene
 • Long run versus trading
 • Reassert owner responsibility: Active
   concentrated ownership of resilient cash
   flow/dividends
 • Diversify systemic risks across asset
   classes
5 Investment themes for the Anthropocene

 1. Low carbon energy infrastructure -
    $100 Trillion over 20 years
 2. Regenerative enterprise
 3. Technology
 4. Emerging markets
 5. Distress/opportunistic
“It’s all a question of story. We are in trouble now
because we do not have a good story.” - Thomas Berry
Investment is the bridge to the economy
we need. And the steering wheel.


 We are called to be the architects
  of the future, not its victims.

            - R. Buckminster Fuller
Thank you

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San francisco tellus_ci

  • 1. Redesigning Finance: Pathways to a Resilient Future San Francisco, CA August 9, 2012 http://pricetags.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/800px-london_millenium_wobbly_bridge1.jpg
  • 2. 1. Context: Not your grandmother’s SRI/ESG talk 2. Long View Implications for Investors: This time IS different 3. Public Policy Implications: Not for today
  • 3. Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist. - Kenneth Boulding , Economist, Quaker, Co-Creator of General Systems Theor y
  • 4. The most powerful force in the universe is compound interest. - Albert Einstein*
  • 6. Exponential growth leads to ecosystem crisis ”Safe Operating Space”, J. Rockstrom, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis
  • 7. Ecological Overshoot: We use 1.5 planets ”Footprint Network.org
  • 8. We know what sustainability looks like Sustainability Optimum 100% Collapse of 0% Financial System Resilience Efficiency Source: Lietaer, Ulanowicz, Goerner 2008
  • 9. Economic What’sDesiredwith this picture? wrong Outcome Efficiency Finance Economy Planet
  • 10. Lost in finance: So clever, so ignorant Our economy has become an anti- economy, a financial system without a sound economic basis and without economic virtues. - Wendell Berry
  • 11. Money, Banking, Finance & Investment: Designed for growth
  • 12. Landing the plane will be a turbulent affair
  • 13. Stranded Assets: our $20 T “Big Choice” • 2 degree warming limit: 565 GtC02 • “Proved Reserves” have 5X this amount • 74% owned by States, 24% by companies At current market value, $20 trillion choice Source: Potsdam Institute and “Unburnable Carbon”, Carbon Tracker Report
  • 14. $20 Trillion of denial goes a long way…
  • 15. Ecological overshoot = Financial Overshoot What’s the off balance sheet ecological debt? What’s the P/E of a “steady state” economy? What’s the debt capacity of the steady state? What’s the unfunded pension liability of a SS? The sustainable payout of a SS endowment?
  • 16. Financial reform: Rearranging deckchairs May 26, 2011
  • 17. 1. Context: Not your grandmother’s SRI/ESG talk 2. Long View Implications for Investors: This time IS different
  • 18. Towards a Regenerative Economy • Holistic frame: nature as model • Redefine wealth: natural/social capital • The humble retreat of finance • Public interest in capital investment: All investment has IMPACT
  • 19. What’s different this time • Schumpeter’s “creative destruction” on steroids • MPT built on flawed assumptions • Index benchmarking and tracking strategies exposed • Diversification often a mirage
  • 20. ESG framework: Integrated reporting Unparalleled Leadership: Jochen Zeitz 2010 Earnings: Euro 202mm 2010 “E P&L”: (Euro 145 mm)
  • 21. Investment principles for the Anthropocene • Long run versus trading • Reassert owner responsibility: Active concentrated ownership of resilient cash flow/dividends • Diversify systemic risks across asset classes
  • 22. 5 Investment themes for the Anthropocene 1. Low carbon energy infrastructure - $100 Trillion over 20 years 2. Regenerative enterprise 3. Technology 4. Emerging markets 5. Distress/opportunistic
  • 23. “It’s all a question of story. We are in trouble now because we do not have a good story.” - Thomas Berry
  • 24. Investment is the bridge to the economy we need. And the steering wheel. We are called to be the architects of the future, not its victims. - R. Buckminster Fuller

Editor's Notes

  1. Vision: a world in which finance serves a just, resilient, and sustainable economic system.Reform and Transform the financial systemMission: A think-tank committed to stimulating the interaction and action of leaders, scholars, and society by raising awareness of the need to harness the power of capital and markets to advance a just, resilient, and sustainable economic system that will improve lives and preserve our planet’s life support systems.