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Rita McGrath
Creating Early
Warnings
Scenarios &
Thinking About the
Future
1
Developing Early Warnings
Lagging Current Leading
2
The Early Warnings Model
Time
• Signal Strength
Time Zero
3
The Early Warnings Model
• Signal Strength• Degrees of Freedom
Time Zero
Time
4
Time Zero Events: Examples
•Artificial intelligence enabled chatbots become the state of
the art for customer service
•Augmented Reality is used to create immersive retail
experiences
•50% of all web-based encounters are done without a screen
(using voice or other technologies)
•Algorithms are used to monitor and influence the behavior of
most normal workers
5
• Pick two major uncertainties
• Assign different values to each and create a 2x2
• Tell a story about each resulting future situation, then craft a headline
• I’m going to use:
• Uncertainty #1: Maximizing Shareholder Value prevails, or not
• Uncertainty #2: The world’s economy bounces back, or not
Devising Time Zero Events
6
Stories about possible futures
7
Headlines (note these are all real)
8
• /
/
On a brighter note…We can learn about the future from the
people who will be making it
• PAGE 8
Strategy
Innovation
Digital
Gradually, then
suddenly
Concluding thoughts
Blind spots can come
from past success
Most of us work with
lagging indicators
The strength of a
signal is inversely
related to the ability
to change it
You can
systematically
identify early
warnings
It isn’t about
prediction, but
preparedness
Thank You!
Rita@RitaMcGrath.com
rdm20@gsb.columbia.edu
@rgmcgrath
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ritamcgrath/
To learn more, subscribe to my free newsletter at www.ritamcgrath.com
Every month, a different inflection point in a different sector

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