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Restructuring monocities as a lever of
paradigm shift towards iconomics for
Russian economy
Клод Рошке
Профевор университет париж сакле
Claude Rochet
Professeur des universités
Chercheur associé LAREQUOI Université de Paris Saclay
Claude.rochet@univ-amu.fr
Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why
Russian monocities may not
Physics of city
What the smart cities from the past can teach us?
Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city
Methodology and examples (good and bad)
Proposal of a road map for Russia
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
2
Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and
why Russian monocities may not
Physics of city
What the smart cities from the past can teach us?
Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city
Methodology and examples (good and bad)
Proposal of a road map for Russia
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
3
Top down mono functional city
29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
Monocities have turned to be an obstacle to growth in Russia,
representing up to 31% GDP.
A US$ 525 million cost for the federal Govt each year
4
Monocities are the
legacy of the
paradigm of the IInd
industrial revolution
based on mass and
standardized
production.
Iconomics is the new
paradigm based on
information techs.
Togliatti (Russia):
Monocities= specialization in decreasing returns activities
29/12/2016
Decreasing returns due to
• mono specialization in primary activities
• localization in remote places
• No synergies between activities
• 335 mono goroda (31% of towns)
• 16 Mon hab. (25% urban pop.)
• Urbanisation rate: 75%
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
5
What a smart city can’t be
 A collection of « smarties »
 A techno centric city
 A city without past
 = EU ideology!
 A deterministic system
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
Ont the contrary
Smart city = Integrated complex system
6
Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why
Russian monocities may not
Physics of the city
What the smart cities from the past can teach us?
Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city
Methodology and examples (good and bad)
Proposal of a road map for Russia
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
7
Cities scaling laws
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
Densité
Potentiel
d’interconnexions
Y=x2 Metcalfe law
But…..
Distance
Interconnexionsréelles
Von Thünen Tobler law
Externalités+et_
Taille
But…..
Taille
Nombredevilles
Marshall West Bettencourt law
Zipf law
8
Combining these laws:
12/29/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
Size x Number of cities
Connectionsxwealth
New town
Clustering medium size
cities
New town
Defining the perimeter and
the
« in and out »
interrelations of the
system is a key issue in
cities 'system design
9
Good and bad complexity
29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
At a certain point growing
complexity produces more
negative than positive
externalities and become
unmonitorable
Bad complexity
Good complexity
Growing size
Growingcomplexity
E. g. Detroit (USA), Russian monocities…
10
A (really) smart city is an
emerging ecosystem
 Smart city framework= A great number of interactions between people x connected objects
whose quantity and speed is in dramatic increase at date.
 The behavior of a system is predictable when the sequence of transitions from one state to
another can be described.
 Emergence takes place when the space of possible states or rules of transitions changes: the
city can’t be described by the model that described it until then. (Heylighen & Joslyn 1991) :
The behavior is no longer predictable
 Modeling emergence implies:
1. Carrying on a watch of all kinds of as well exogenous (e.g. human behavior) as endogenous (e.g.
disruptive technology) changes.
2. Mapping the properties, desirable an undesirable, the system can take.
3. The values attached to theses properties in a precise context.
4. Defining a meta system which variety could monitor the growth of complexity.
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
11
What modeling means?
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
12
Reality
Model = abstract
representation of perceived
reality
Human constructed reality
Emergence
Transition
Evolutionary model
A smart city is an integration of two kinds of
systems
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
Hard systems may
be modeled thanks
to the laws of
physics
(conservative
systems)
Soft systems can’t
be modeled with
the laws of physics
(dissipative
systems)
- Social sciences
- Big data
- Autopoeisis
- Multi-agents
modeling
The key of the
success is here…
… while business
is there
Politics must prevail
on a bottom up basis
13
Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why
Russian monocities may not
Physics of city
What does the smart cities from the past teach
us?
Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city
Methodology and examples (good and bad)
Proposal of a road map for Russia
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
14
Middle age cities were smart: organic development,
common good, synergies between economic activities
29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
Common good
Vivere politico
Economic welfare
Pivate good
15
Direct democracy was at the root of the
city life and its organic evolution
29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
16
A russian born
institution
Novogorod veche:
Rule by popular
assembly
Новгоро́дская
респу́блика вече
Middle Age cities grew on an organic
planning basis
« Organic planning does not begin with a
preconceived goal; it moves from need to
need, from opportunity to opportunity, in a
series of adaptations that themselves become
increasingly coherent and purposeful, so that
they generate a complex final design, hardly
less unified than a pre-formed geometric
pattern. »
12/29/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
17
Coherence without the need of a detailed plan!
From organic growth to top-
down planning
12/29/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
18
Екатеринбург was founded top
down in 1723 to be a mono
industry city.
Modern cities (from XVI° onward)
were designed through detailed
plans.
The political associated ideal was
autocracy (Vasily Tatishchev).
The opposite of the organic grown-up middle-age city!
Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why
Russian monocities may not
Physics of city
What does the smart cities from the past teach us?
Towards an organic and sustainable innovating
city
Methodology and examples (good and bad)
Proposal of a road map for Russia
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
19
Urban dynamics: from neo cybernetics to
autopoesis
First order cybernetics (Forrester):
The city as a self regulating system by single feedback loop…
... Or a super command and control machinery (Rio)
The 2nd order of cybernetics includes autopoeisis of human
dissipative systems
The complexity of the city is a combination of several laws and
not top-down predictable
There is a positive correlation between growth of the city size
and its complexity....
... But there is a good and a bad complexity
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
20
A quasi zero order cybernetics unable to self
regulate
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
21
Paris métro….
First order cybernetics city
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
The myth of
the super mind
and perfect
control
IBM at Rio do
Janeiro
The big brother
like city
22
Autopoeisis: Why and How?
An autopoeitic system is “a network of processes of
production (transformation and destruction) of components
which: (i) through their interactions and transformations
continuously regenerate and realize the network of
processes that produced them; and (ii) constitute it as a
concrete unity in space in which they (the components) exist
by specifying the topological domain of its realization as
such a network.” H. Maturana
Autopoeisis is a property of human dissipative system:
strong entropy and correlative capabilities to reproduce
itself permanently thanks to its internal interactions
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
23
Autopoeisis: Why and How?
Autopoeisis makes the system able to face with the
rapid changing of the environment:
“This generalized view of autopoiesis considers
systems as self-producing not in terms of their
physical components, but in terms of its
organization, which can be measured in terms of
information and complexity. In other words, we
can describe autopoietic systems as those
producing more of their own complexity than
the one produced by their environment".
C. Gershenson
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
24
Autopeoietic system integration works bottom-up based on
“ordinary actions of the people”
29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
NO! An evolutionary
process
Integration process is
bottom-up…
… based on ordinary
interactions
 We must understand
how ordinary people
behave
 Q: Is there an
architect with a
master plan?
25
The necessity of an evolutionary dynamics
29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
26
Emergence of the city
pattern
Experiencing
autopoeitic properties
Organic complexity
growth
Example of impact of an
exogenous/endogenous change:
The propagation of the electric
vehicle
Urban Lifecycle Management
Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why
Russian monocities may not
Physics of city
What does the smart cities from the past teach us?
Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city
Methodology and examples (good and bad)
Proposal of a road map for Russia
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
27
Methodology : Strategic Analysis
29/12/2016
28
Why building a city & what are
the strategic goals? Who are
the stakeholders?
What are the generic
functions to be performed by
a smart city?
With which organs?
Technical devices,
software…
With which smart
people?
Conception,
metamodel
framework,
steering
Subsystems
and
processes
People
and tools
Why designing this ecosystem?
Who will live in the city?
What are its activities?
How the city will be fed?
Where the city is located ? (context)
What are the functions to be performed to
reach the goals and how do they interact?
With which organs
and ressources?
How people will interact with the
artifacts?
How civic life will organize?
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
People as
end-users
People as
citizens
Why do we need strong citizen based
interactions within a system? (1)
 Economy:
 An economic structure based on synergies of economics activities is the
condition to wealth creation which reinforces itself through interaction of a
political power based on the Common Good (Reinert, 2006, Rochet, 2012)
 FFF (Failed, Fragile and Failing states) : The missing link is related to the
lack of increasing returns based on « coopetitive » diffusion of means (…)
productive governance often enforces the development sustainable
productive structures based usually on a participatory system.
 “State failure an fragility are often preceded, or at least accompanied, by
failure and fragility of cities” (Reinert & Kattel, 2009)
 “The more the participatory system is closed to democracy and shared
economic growth with special focus on health, education and
communication infrastructure building, more quickly the divergence
between countries narrows down.» (Reinert &Kattel, 2009)
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
29
Why do we need strong citizen based
interactions within a system? (2)
 Resilience:
 A smart city is a highly internally connected facing
with a turbulent environment, that challenges its
resilience.
 Strong social capabilities enforces the autopoeitic
properties of the system, and consequently its
resilience.
 E.g. Christchurch (NZ)
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
26/01/2016
30
New techniques arise
29/12/2016
Design thinking
(Stanford, Ecole
des Ponts)
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
31
Why do we need strong citizen based
interactions within a system? (3)
Citizen is at the interface of technological devices which
consume and produce data (e.g. The smart phone)
The frontier between production and consumption is
blurred more than in other cases of information economy
(McLuhan): the prosumer.
In a rapid innovative system the citizen is a lead user of
the innovation process (Von Hippel).
The power of these technical systems requires strong
political control to be both fully efficient and not
becoming the level of a totalitarian system (Simondon).
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
32
Direct democracy has a strong record in the
management of cities and human communities as
complex systems
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
 Schumpeterian economics correlates
synergies between activities, political
freedom and common weal.
 Traditional decision making system may
help modeling a resilient human system
e.g.: ongoing research project of
modeling an eco-efficient drinking water
network in Angola with the palaver tree.
33
Bad example: The Globalized city
29/12/2016
34
City centerSuburbPeriphery Suburb Periphery
Incomesinequality
Low cost
immigrants
Low cost
immigrants
Old medium and
working class
Super riches
Connected upper class
Communautarism and lost of urban synergies
Urban
poors
Regional insurrection in
desindustrialized periphery
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
The political divide between globalized cities
and peripheries
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
35
The false green cities
29/12/2016
36
Integrating imported
pollution, energy waste….
produced by a dysfunctional
ecosystem
Is the city really green?
The worst case: Paris socio-
ethnic greenwashing
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
The perfectly integrated smart city: Singapore
29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
37
The man-made mechanical
forest consists of 18 supertrees
that act as vertical gardens,
generating solar power, acting
as air venting ducts for nearby
conservatories, and collecting
rainwater. To generate
electricity, 11 of the supertrees
are fitted with solar photovoltaic
systems that convert sunlight
into energy, which provides
lighting and aids water
technology within the
conservatories below
Singapore vs. Norilsk
12/29/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
38
Common features: Unhealthy and hostile climate, no
reason for existing except a political will, no natural assets,
no industry, no initial social capital…
Depressing monoindustry and pollution A city thought of from the beginning as a smart nation
New paradigms in public decision making
 Polycentric governance (Ostrom): deciding in small units on a large
scale
 Bottom up decision processes : e.g. Michael Batty modeling decision
process as a Markov chains to bring back the city in a ergodic state
 Large deliberative upfront processes reduce uncertainty e.g. The
Parable of the Hare and the Tortoise: Small Worlds, Diversity, and
System Performance (Lazer & Friedman 2005)
 « In short, cities are more like biological than mechanical systems.
The rise of the sciences of complexity, which have changed the
direction of system theory from top down to the bottom-up is one
that treats such systems as open, based more on the product of an
evolutionary process than a grand design » Michael Batty « A
new Science of Cities » 2015
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
39
A paradoxical research question:
Can we conceive the gov’t of a city that should
not need a government?
 At date, if we assume the benchmark of a smart city is
Singapore: it’s not really a democracy.
 At date, we don’t know large systems that have developed
spontaneously self organizing properties .
 Rules, as a genetic code of an ecosystem, are the result of a long
term learning process: Cf. biomimicry
 A Machiavellian approach: The Prince is to fix the good
institutions from the top down giving the citizens the rights to
challenge the power of the few in charge, so that top down and
bottom-up converge.
 We have a lot of references of direct democracy experiences,
how they were born, how they died.
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
40
Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why
Russian monocities may not
Physics of city
What does the smart cities from the past teach us?
Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city
Methodology and examples (good and bad)
Proposal of a road map for Russia
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
41
Smart cities and paradigm shift in Russia towards iconomy
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
42
Training of actors,
Knowledge transfer
to SME
Smart Cities Pilot
Projects
Social capabilities
improvement
System modeling
and integration
capacities
Investments and
reference
realizations
Territories
development
Technology
transfer
Absorptive
capacities
Organic
development
R&D
Actions Realizations Strategic assets
Autopoeisis
Business model transition
29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
43
Present Russia Fed Gov’t 520 Mion USD Social cost of monocities
Transition scenario
Smartization of
monocities
Investments
Foreign
Investments
+
Increasing returns of smart
cities
Virtuous reinforcement
Merci!
29/12/2016 44
44
Thank you!
Спасибо
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg

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Restructuring monocities as a lever of paradigm shift towards iconomics for Russian economy

  • 1. Restructuring monocities as a lever of paradigm shift towards iconomics for Russian economy Клод Рошке Профевор университет париж сакле Claude Rochet Professeur des universités Chercheur associé LAREQUOI Université de Paris Saclay Claude.rochet@univ-amu.fr
  • 2. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What the smart cities from the past can teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 2
  • 3. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What the smart cities from the past can teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 3
  • 4. Top down mono functional city 29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg Monocities have turned to be an obstacle to growth in Russia, representing up to 31% GDP. A US$ 525 million cost for the federal Govt each year 4 Monocities are the legacy of the paradigm of the IInd industrial revolution based on mass and standardized production. Iconomics is the new paradigm based on information techs. Togliatti (Russia):
  • 5. Monocities= specialization in decreasing returns activities 29/12/2016 Decreasing returns due to • mono specialization in primary activities • localization in remote places • No synergies between activities • 335 mono goroda (31% of towns) • 16 Mon hab. (25% urban pop.) • Urbanisation rate: 75% Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 5
  • 6. What a smart city can’t be  A collection of « smarties »  A techno centric city  A city without past  = EU ideology!  A deterministic system 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg Ont the contrary Smart city = Integrated complex system 6
  • 7. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of the city What the smart cities from the past can teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 7
  • 8. Cities scaling laws 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg Densité Potentiel d’interconnexions Y=x2 Metcalfe law But….. Distance Interconnexionsréelles Von Thünen Tobler law Externalités+et_ Taille But….. Taille Nombredevilles Marshall West Bettencourt law Zipf law 8
  • 9. Combining these laws: 12/29/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg Size x Number of cities Connectionsxwealth New town Clustering medium size cities New town Defining the perimeter and the « in and out » interrelations of the system is a key issue in cities 'system design 9
  • 10. Good and bad complexity 29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg At a certain point growing complexity produces more negative than positive externalities and become unmonitorable Bad complexity Good complexity Growing size Growingcomplexity E. g. Detroit (USA), Russian monocities… 10
  • 11. A (really) smart city is an emerging ecosystem  Smart city framework= A great number of interactions between people x connected objects whose quantity and speed is in dramatic increase at date.  The behavior of a system is predictable when the sequence of transitions from one state to another can be described.  Emergence takes place when the space of possible states or rules of transitions changes: the city can’t be described by the model that described it until then. (Heylighen & Joslyn 1991) : The behavior is no longer predictable  Modeling emergence implies: 1. Carrying on a watch of all kinds of as well exogenous (e.g. human behavior) as endogenous (e.g. disruptive technology) changes. 2. Mapping the properties, desirable an undesirable, the system can take. 3. The values attached to theses properties in a precise context. 4. Defining a meta system which variety could monitor the growth of complexity. 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 11
  • 12. What modeling means? 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 12 Reality Model = abstract representation of perceived reality Human constructed reality Emergence Transition Evolutionary model
  • 13. A smart city is an integration of two kinds of systems 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg Hard systems may be modeled thanks to the laws of physics (conservative systems) Soft systems can’t be modeled with the laws of physics (dissipative systems) - Social sciences - Big data - Autopoeisis - Multi-agents modeling The key of the success is here… … while business is there Politics must prevail on a bottom up basis 13
  • 14. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 14
  • 15. Middle age cities were smart: organic development, common good, synergies between economic activities 29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg Common good Vivere politico Economic welfare Pivate good 15
  • 16. Direct democracy was at the root of the city life and its organic evolution 29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 16 A russian born institution Novogorod veche: Rule by popular assembly Новгоро́дская респу́блика вече
  • 17. Middle Age cities grew on an organic planning basis « Organic planning does not begin with a preconceived goal; it moves from need to need, from opportunity to opportunity, in a series of adaptations that themselves become increasingly coherent and purposeful, so that they generate a complex final design, hardly less unified than a pre-formed geometric pattern. » 12/29/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 17 Coherence without the need of a detailed plan!
  • 18. From organic growth to top- down planning 12/29/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 18 Екатеринбург was founded top down in 1723 to be a mono industry city. Modern cities (from XVI° onward) were designed through detailed plans. The political associated ideal was autocracy (Vasily Tatishchev). The opposite of the organic grown-up middle-age city!
  • 19. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 19
  • 20. Urban dynamics: from neo cybernetics to autopoesis First order cybernetics (Forrester): The city as a self regulating system by single feedback loop… ... Or a super command and control machinery (Rio) The 2nd order of cybernetics includes autopoeisis of human dissipative systems The complexity of the city is a combination of several laws and not top-down predictable There is a positive correlation between growth of the city size and its complexity.... ... But there is a good and a bad complexity 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 20
  • 21. A quasi zero order cybernetics unable to self regulate 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 21 Paris métro….
  • 22. First order cybernetics city 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg The myth of the super mind and perfect control IBM at Rio do Janeiro The big brother like city 22
  • 23. Autopoeisis: Why and How? An autopoeitic system is “a network of processes of production (transformation and destruction) of components which: (i) through their interactions and transformations continuously regenerate and realize the network of processes that produced them; and (ii) constitute it as a concrete unity in space in which they (the components) exist by specifying the topological domain of its realization as such a network.” H. Maturana Autopoeisis is a property of human dissipative system: strong entropy and correlative capabilities to reproduce itself permanently thanks to its internal interactions 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 23
  • 24. Autopoeisis: Why and How? Autopoeisis makes the system able to face with the rapid changing of the environment: “This generalized view of autopoiesis considers systems as self-producing not in terms of their physical components, but in terms of its organization, which can be measured in terms of information and complexity. In other words, we can describe autopoietic systems as those producing more of their own complexity than the one produced by their environment". C. Gershenson 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 24
  • 25. Autopeoietic system integration works bottom-up based on “ordinary actions of the people” 29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg NO! An evolutionary process Integration process is bottom-up… … based on ordinary interactions  We must understand how ordinary people behave  Q: Is there an architect with a master plan? 25
  • 26. The necessity of an evolutionary dynamics 29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 26 Emergence of the city pattern Experiencing autopoeitic properties Organic complexity growth Example of impact of an exogenous/endogenous change: The propagation of the electric vehicle Urban Lifecycle Management
  • 27. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 27
  • 28. Methodology : Strategic Analysis 29/12/2016 28 Why building a city & what are the strategic goals? Who are the stakeholders? What are the generic functions to be performed by a smart city? With which organs? Technical devices, software… With which smart people? Conception, metamodel framework, steering Subsystems and processes People and tools Why designing this ecosystem? Who will live in the city? What are its activities? How the city will be fed? Where the city is located ? (context) What are the functions to be performed to reach the goals and how do they interact? With which organs and ressources? How people will interact with the artifacts? How civic life will organize? Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg People as end-users People as citizens
  • 29. Why do we need strong citizen based interactions within a system? (1)  Economy:  An economic structure based on synergies of economics activities is the condition to wealth creation which reinforces itself through interaction of a political power based on the Common Good (Reinert, 2006, Rochet, 2012)  FFF (Failed, Fragile and Failing states) : The missing link is related to the lack of increasing returns based on « coopetitive » diffusion of means (…) productive governance often enforces the development sustainable productive structures based usually on a participatory system.  “State failure an fragility are often preceded, or at least accompanied, by failure and fragility of cities” (Reinert & Kattel, 2009)  “The more the participatory system is closed to democracy and shared economic growth with special focus on health, education and communication infrastructure building, more quickly the divergence between countries narrows down.» (Reinert &Kattel, 2009) 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 29
  • 30. Why do we need strong citizen based interactions within a system? (2)  Resilience:  A smart city is a highly internally connected facing with a turbulent environment, that challenges its resilience.  Strong social capabilities enforces the autopoeitic properties of the system, and consequently its resilience.  E.g. Christchurch (NZ) 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 26/01/2016 30
  • 31. New techniques arise 29/12/2016 Design thinking (Stanford, Ecole des Ponts) Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 31
  • 32. Why do we need strong citizen based interactions within a system? (3) Citizen is at the interface of technological devices which consume and produce data (e.g. The smart phone) The frontier between production and consumption is blurred more than in other cases of information economy (McLuhan): the prosumer. In a rapid innovative system the citizen is a lead user of the innovation process (Von Hippel). The power of these technical systems requires strong political control to be both fully efficient and not becoming the level of a totalitarian system (Simondon). 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 32
  • 33. Direct democracy has a strong record in the management of cities and human communities as complex systems 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg  Schumpeterian economics correlates synergies between activities, political freedom and common weal.  Traditional decision making system may help modeling a resilient human system e.g.: ongoing research project of modeling an eco-efficient drinking water network in Angola with the palaver tree. 33
  • 34. Bad example: The Globalized city 29/12/2016 34 City centerSuburbPeriphery Suburb Periphery Incomesinequality Low cost immigrants Low cost immigrants Old medium and working class Super riches Connected upper class Communautarism and lost of urban synergies Urban poors Regional insurrection in desindustrialized periphery Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
  • 35. The political divide between globalized cities and peripheries 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 35
  • 36. The false green cities 29/12/2016 36 Integrating imported pollution, energy waste…. produced by a dysfunctional ecosystem Is the city really green? The worst case: Paris socio- ethnic greenwashing Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
  • 37. The perfectly integrated smart city: Singapore 29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 37 The man-made mechanical forest consists of 18 supertrees that act as vertical gardens, generating solar power, acting as air venting ducts for nearby conservatories, and collecting rainwater. To generate electricity, 11 of the supertrees are fitted with solar photovoltaic systems that convert sunlight into energy, which provides lighting and aids water technology within the conservatories below
  • 38. Singapore vs. Norilsk 12/29/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 38 Common features: Unhealthy and hostile climate, no reason for existing except a political will, no natural assets, no industry, no initial social capital… Depressing monoindustry and pollution A city thought of from the beginning as a smart nation
  • 39. New paradigms in public decision making  Polycentric governance (Ostrom): deciding in small units on a large scale  Bottom up decision processes : e.g. Michael Batty modeling decision process as a Markov chains to bring back the city in a ergodic state  Large deliberative upfront processes reduce uncertainty e.g. The Parable of the Hare and the Tortoise: Small Worlds, Diversity, and System Performance (Lazer & Friedman 2005)  « In short, cities are more like biological than mechanical systems. The rise of the sciences of complexity, which have changed the direction of system theory from top down to the bottom-up is one that treats such systems as open, based more on the product of an evolutionary process than a grand design » Michael Batty « A new Science of Cities » 2015 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 39
  • 40. A paradoxical research question: Can we conceive the gov’t of a city that should not need a government?  At date, if we assume the benchmark of a smart city is Singapore: it’s not really a democracy.  At date, we don’t know large systems that have developed spontaneously self organizing properties .  Rules, as a genetic code of an ecosystem, are the result of a long term learning process: Cf. biomimicry  A Machiavellian approach: The Prince is to fix the good institutions from the top down giving the citizens the rights to challenge the power of the few in charge, so that top down and bottom-up converge.  We have a lot of references of direct democracy experiences, how they were born, how they died. 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 40
  • 41. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 41
  • 42. Smart cities and paradigm shift in Russia towards iconomy 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 42 Training of actors, Knowledge transfer to SME Smart Cities Pilot Projects Social capabilities improvement System modeling and integration capacities Investments and reference realizations Territories development Technology transfer Absorptive capacities Organic development R&D Actions Realizations Strategic assets Autopoeisis
  • 43. Business model transition 29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 43 Present Russia Fed Gov’t 520 Mion USD Social cost of monocities Transition scenario Smartization of monocities Investments Foreign Investments + Increasing returns of smart cities Virtuous reinforcement
  • 44. Merci! 29/12/2016 44 44 Thank you! Спасибо Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg