SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Comentarios acerca de las
presentaciones de los países
Andy Challinor
A.J.Challinor@leeds.ac.uk
School of Earth and
Environment
Temas
1. “Considera que los escenarios se acercan a lo
que realmente sucediera?”
– Incertidumbre (CIAT-PNUMA,IDEAM, SENHAMI)
– Downscaling (INHAMI, SENHAMI)
2. Predictibilidad actual del clima (SENHAMI,
IDEAM)
– Variabilidad del clima
– Detectación del cambio climático
3. Vulnerabilidad y adaptación (INHAMI, SENHAMI,
CIAT-PNUMA)
4. Síntesis
• We don’t know by how much our models are in
error because we don’t know the error:
– in model inputs (e.g. initial conditions, boundary
conditions, parameters, driving variables)
– in model structure (inc. spatial and temporal
discretization)
– resulting from intrinsic stochastic variability
What is uncertainty?
Predictability varies spatially and temporally
Hawkins and Sutton (2009) – Bull. Am. Met. Soc.
Signal to noise ratio for decadal mean surface air temperature predictions
4
Este análisis se puede hacer para cultivos (Vermuelen et al., 2013)
Schlenker & Roberts (2009) - PNAS Vara Prasad et al (2001)
DailyTmax of 29-30°C
Flower bud temperature (oC)
24 28 32 36 40 44 48
Fruitset(%)
0
20
40
60
Groundnut in controlled environmentsMaize using county-level yields
DailyT of 32-39 °C ,
depending on timing
Scale dependency of biophysical relationships
• If this scale dependency can be further understood then models could
improve, thus reducing uncertainty
• To do this, need to put together diverse types of models
Importancia de cuantificar incertidumbre
Ensemble crop-climate modelling to inform adaptation
Percentageofharvestsfailing
Adaptation
None Temperature Water Temp+Wat None Temperature Water Temp+Wat
Adaptation
1 x σ events 2 x σ events
Percentageofharvestsfailing
Challinor et al. (2010) – Environmental Research Letters
Increase in GMT (oC)
2 x σ crop failure events
Percentageofharvestsfailing
0-2 (6720) 2-4 (5832) 4-6 (2352) 6-8 (56)
Error bars or contingent statements?
Δ food
system
Precision
Relevance / complexity
Δyield
ΔCO2
Δclimate
Challinor (2009a)
A1B QUMP(17) GLAM(8)
Challinor et al. (2010)
Identifying key sources of uncertainty:
focus on processes not ranges
The use of models as black boxes, with the associated focus on model outputs, places
a significant burden on the model to correctly reproduce the interactions between
processes.
• Often unclear which processes have been simulated within a given ag. impacts study
(White et al., 2011).
• Points to need for impacts model intercomparison projects to clearly document which
processes are simulated and synthesise the results of numerous models.
Use contingent statements to express trade-offs:
‘What are the limiting processes?’ vs ‘what will happen to impact variable x?’
“Warmer temperatures will reduce the time to maturity of crops, thus reducing yield.
Increases in rainfall compensate for this in 40-60% of cases”
vs.
“yields decrease by 10-70%.”
Identify key uncertainties, determine which are reducible and which are not
See Challinor et al. (2012), part of a special issue of Ag. For. Met. “Agricultural prediction using climate model ensembles”
Relationship between spatial scale and uncertainty
Do increases in model resolution improve simulation skill?
Yes! For mean temperature
Not really… For precipitation
Dashed lines are the means of CMIP3
Julian Ramirez
Examine count of Tmax>30oC as this is known to be important
Can use observations to measure error, and to correct for it in
projections
• A number of methods exist for doing this with GCMs
• Unclear which is best
Downscaling as a ‘source’ of
uncertainty
“Nudging” “Delta approaches”
Observations
GCM baseline GCM raw
Prediction Obs
GCM b GCM raw
Pred
Hawkins et al. (2012) – Ag. For. Met.
IPSL SRES A1B
minus A2 (raw)
Nudging minus
Delta when
QUMP used to
predict IPSL
2xσ across QUMP
with Bias cor.
2030-2059
Tmax > 30.C
Uncertainty in the bias of the climate model is significant – i.e. the choice of climate
model error correction is a significant source of uncertainty in crop impacts assessments
Hawkins et al. (2012)
 “Perfect sibling” approach: reference simulation of current climate treated as
future observations
HADCM3 QUMP sibling models and IPSL, which is structurally different
Como presentar incertidumbre
Analysis of climate models to tell us ‘when’ (rather than ‘if’)
• A1B and A2 are similar if
you are posing the question
“when will 2oC be
exceeded?”
• But for 3oC they are
significantly different
Joshi et al. (2012) – Nature Climate Change
“Improved treatments of
uncertainty: recent progress and
implications” March 13th and 14th
2013, London
• Review EQUIP progress and take
a forward-looking view of
uncertainty quantification at both
weather and climate timescales.
• Use of uncertain climate and
impacts information
• Africa-focussed session
EQUIP: un proyecto sobre el incertidumbre
en clima y sus impactos
www.equip.leeds.ac.uk
Special issue of Climatic Change: improving the
quantification of uncertainty across models of
climate and its impacts.
Quantifying and communicating uncertainty in climate and its impacts Anna
Weisslink, Andy Challinor
Using observations to constrain climate forecasts Friederike Otto, Myles
Allen, …
Statistical benchmark models for impacts prediction Emma Suckling, Lenny
Smith
Required weather characteristics for climate impact projections Hawkins,
Ferro & Stephenson
Evaluating climate predictions: when is hindcast performance a guide to
forecast performance? Friederike Otto, Emma Suckling, Chris Ferro, Tom
Fricker
Attributing impacts of external climate drivers on extreme precipitation events
in Europe Sue Rosier
Predicting impact relevant changes in heatwaves and water availability /
Benefit of intialisation for decadal prediction of summer heatwave indices
Helen Hanlon, G. Hegerl, Chris Kilsby, S Tett,
Assessment of risk of marine eutrophication, past present and future. Stefan
Saux Picart & Momme Butenschon
The communication of science and uncertainty in European National
Adaptation Strategies Susanne Lorenz, Suraje Dessai, Jouni Paavola, Piers
Forster
….
2. Predictibilidad actual del clima
• Variabilidad del clima
• Detectación del cambio climático
• Cambios en variabilidad – poco investigado
Detection of climate change:
importance of internal climate variability
Ed Hawkins
Central
England
Temperature
The role of internal climate variability: example of Central England
Temperature – very different oC/decade climate change!
Ed Hawkins
Emergence of signals in impacts:
means vs variability
• In impacts studies the focus is often on mean changes, e.g. in crop yields.
Variability is often not reported, or it is used as an error bar
• Clear signals in mean yields may not be possible until late in the century
Challinor et al. (2013)
Trop and temp
Mostly tropical
Changes in variability may become clearer
sooner than changes in the mean
Challinor et al. (2013)
Australian wheat
harvest failure
Russian wheat
harvest failure
Changes in variability, and their numerous
interactions, may already be emerging as key drivers
3. Vulnerabilidad y adaptacion
• Two paradigms
• Importance of social sciences
Notes: Yellow arrows: the cycle of cause and effect among the four quadrants.
Blue arrow: societal response to climate change impacts.
Dominant perspective: 1. physical sciences
Integrated assessment framework for considering anthropogenic climate change.
Questions of interest:
Predictive: How will
people respond?
Prescriptive: How should
people respond?
Dominant perspective: 2. social science
Sustainable livelihoods framework
The arrows within the framework are used as shorthand to denote a variety of different
types of relationships, all of which are highly dynamic. None of the arrows imply direct
causality, though all imply a certain level of influence.
Question:
How can we
reduce social
vulnerability to
climate impacts?
4. Síntesis
Challinor et al. (2009b)
“insufficiently
constrained” (?)
Impreciso e
inútil (?)
Preciso /
exacto pero
incorrecto (?)
Data assimilation – the ‘fourth dimension’
Importancia de las observaciones para reducir
incertidumbre
• Porque se pueden usar para cuantificar los errores
de los modelos
• Los institutos nacionales de meteorología tienen
una extensa red meteorológica – se podían usar
para esto
Conclusiones
• Tratamiento de incertidumbre
– Muy importante cuantificar incertidumbre y estar
consciente de construir buenas “contingent statements” o
“descriptions of trade-offs”
– Puede que haya menos incertidumbre en zonas
montañosas (Vermuelen et al. 2013, Laderach et al.) – cf
CIAT-PNUMA
– Método de downscaling tiene implicaciones para
incertidumbre
• Presentar incertidumbre using the time axis
• Importancia de cuantificar cambios de variabilidad
• Importancia de ciencias sociales para analizar a la
vulnerabilidad
References
• Challinor et al (2012) available at
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016819231200281X
• Challinor AJ, Simelton ES, Fraser EDG, Hemming D, & Collins M (2010) Increased crop
failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic
data for wheat in China. Environmental Research Letters 5(3):034012.
• Challinor, A. J., T. Osborne, A. Morse, L. Shaffrey, T. Wheeler, H. Weller (2009b). Methods
and resources for climate impacts research: achieving synergy. Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, 90 (6), 825-835
• Challinor AJ, Ewert F, Arnold S, Simelton E, & Fraser E (2009a) Crops and climate change:
progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation. Journal of
Experimental Botany 60(10):2775-2789.
• Challinor AJ & Wheeler TR (2008) Use of a crop model ensemble to quantify CO2
stimulation of water-stressed and well-watered crops. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
148(6-7):1062-1077.
• Joshi M, Hawkins E, Sutton R, Lowe J, & Frame D (2011) Projections of when temperature
change will exceed 2 [deg]C above pre-industrial levels. Nature Clim. Change 1(8):407-412.
• Hawkins et al (2012) available at
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192312001372
• Watson and Challinor (2012) available at
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192312002535

More Related Content

Viewers also liked

nurse lecture
 nurse lecture   nurse lecture
nurse lecture
ali ALMAHASNAH
 
Campeonato de Cantabria de Cross por Clubes - Mataporquera
Campeonato de Cantabria de Cross por Clubes - MataporqueraCampeonato de Cantabria de Cross por Clubes - Mataporquera
Campeonato de Cantabria de Cross por Clubes - Mataporquera
Iván Marcos
 
Apegroup Marketing by the Numbers - January 17
Apegroup Marketing by the Numbers - January 17Apegroup Marketing by the Numbers - January 17
Apegroup Marketing by the Numbers - January 17
apegroup
 
8086990 lecture-notes-for-mental-health-nursing-psych-nursing
8086990 lecture-notes-for-mental-health-nursing-psych-nursing8086990 lecture-notes-for-mental-health-nursing-psych-nursing
8086990 lecture-notes-for-mental-health-nursing-psych-nursing
ali ALMAHASNAH
 
REPORT- RADIAL FEEDER PROTECTION PANEL DEVELOPMENT
REPORT- RADIAL FEEDER PROTECTION PANEL DEVELOPMENTREPORT- RADIAL FEEDER PROTECTION PANEL DEVELOPMENT
REPORT- RADIAL FEEDER PROTECTION PANEL DEVELOPMENT
Himanshu Paghdal
 
Apegroup Marketing by the Numbers - October
Apegroup Marketing by the Numbers - OctoberApegroup Marketing by the Numbers - October
Apegroup Marketing by the Numbers - October
apegroup
 
Practicas agroforestales como mecanismo de adaptación al cambio climático
Practicas agroforestales como mecanismo de adaptación al cambio climáticoPracticas agroforestales como mecanismo de adaptación al cambio climático
Practicas agroforestales como mecanismo de adaptación al cambio climático
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
RADIAL FEEDER PROTECTION PANEL DEVELOPMENT
RADIAL FEEDER PROTECTION PANEL DEVELOPMENTRADIAL FEEDER PROTECTION PANEL DEVELOPMENT
RADIAL FEEDER PROTECTION PANEL DEVELOPMENT
Himanshu Paghdal
 
Protista materi kelas X
Protista materi kelas XProtista materi kelas X
Protista materi kelas X
Fadhilah Nisa
 

Viewers also liked (11)

nurse lecture
 nurse lecture   nurse lecture
nurse lecture
 
Poor plutobook
Poor plutobookPoor plutobook
Poor plutobook
 
булцуут ногоо
булцуут ногообулцуут ногоо
булцуут ногоо
 
Campeonato de Cantabria de Cross por Clubes - Mataporquera
Campeonato de Cantabria de Cross por Clubes - MataporqueraCampeonato de Cantabria de Cross por Clubes - Mataporquera
Campeonato de Cantabria de Cross por Clubes - Mataporquera
 
Apegroup Marketing by the Numbers - January 17
Apegroup Marketing by the Numbers - January 17Apegroup Marketing by the Numbers - January 17
Apegroup Marketing by the Numbers - January 17
 
8086990 lecture-notes-for-mental-health-nursing-psych-nursing
8086990 lecture-notes-for-mental-health-nursing-psych-nursing8086990 lecture-notes-for-mental-health-nursing-psych-nursing
8086990 lecture-notes-for-mental-health-nursing-psych-nursing
 
REPORT- RADIAL FEEDER PROTECTION PANEL DEVELOPMENT
REPORT- RADIAL FEEDER PROTECTION PANEL DEVELOPMENTREPORT- RADIAL FEEDER PROTECTION PANEL DEVELOPMENT
REPORT- RADIAL FEEDER PROTECTION PANEL DEVELOPMENT
 
Apegroup Marketing by the Numbers - October
Apegroup Marketing by the Numbers - OctoberApegroup Marketing by the Numbers - October
Apegroup Marketing by the Numbers - October
 
Practicas agroforestales como mecanismo de adaptación al cambio climático
Practicas agroforestales como mecanismo de adaptación al cambio climáticoPracticas agroforestales como mecanismo de adaptación al cambio climático
Practicas agroforestales como mecanismo de adaptación al cambio climático
 
RADIAL FEEDER PROTECTION PANEL DEVELOPMENT
RADIAL FEEDER PROTECTION PANEL DEVELOPMENTRADIAL FEEDER PROTECTION PANEL DEVELOPMENT
RADIAL FEEDER PROTECTION PANEL DEVELOPMENT
 
Protista materi kelas X
Protista materi kelas XProtista materi kelas X
Protista materi kelas X
 

Similar to Presentación Andy Challinor - Foro Construcción Escenarios de Cambio Climático en los Andes

Suraje Dessai - Uncertainty from above and encounters in the middle
Suraje Dessai - Uncertainty from above and encounters in the middleSuraje Dessai - Uncertainty from above and encounters in the middle
Suraje Dessai - Uncertainty from above and encounters in the middle
STEPS Centre
 
CLIM Fall 2017 Course: Statistics for Climate Research, Analysis for Climate ...
CLIM Fall 2017 Course: Statistics for Climate Research, Analysis for Climate ...CLIM Fall 2017 Course: Statistics for Climate Research, Analysis for Climate ...
CLIM Fall 2017 Course: Statistics for Climate Research, Analysis for Climate ...
The Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute
 
Tim Palmer, University of Oxford - OECD Workshop on “Climate change, Assumpti...
Tim Palmer, University of Oxford - OECD Workshop on “Climate change, Assumpti...Tim Palmer, University of Oxford - OECD Workshop on “Climate change, Assumpti...
Tim Palmer, University of Oxford - OECD Workshop on “Climate change, Assumpti...
OECD Environment
 
Climate Modeling and Future Climate Change Projections
Climate Modeling and Future Climate Change ProjectionsClimate Modeling and Future Climate Change Projections
Climate Modeling and Future Climate Change Projections
Jesbin Baidya
 
Module-1-prediction-of-health-impacts.ppt
Module-1-prediction-of-health-impacts.pptModule-1-prediction-of-health-impacts.ppt
Module-1-prediction-of-health-impacts.ppt
AbshiroBeyene1
 
TCDF Pitch at ECCA 2017 Innovation Day
TCDF Pitch at ECCA 2017 Innovation Day TCDF Pitch at ECCA 2017 Innovation Day
TCDF Pitch at ECCA 2017 Innovation Day
Harilaos Loukos
 
Lesson 7 Basis for projection of climate change
Lesson 7   Basis for projection of climate changeLesson 7   Basis for projection of climate change
Lesson 7 Basis for projection of climate change
Dr. P.B.Dharmasena
 
2014.12.01 - NAEC-Strategic Foresight Workshop_Session 6_Diana Mangalagiu
2014.12.01 - NAEC-Strategic Foresight Workshop_Session 6_Diana Mangalagiu2014.12.01 - NAEC-Strategic Foresight Workshop_Session 6_Diana Mangalagiu
2014.12.01 - NAEC-Strategic Foresight Workshop_Session 6_Diana Mangalagiu
OECD_NAEC
 
Climate_Modelling_Saurabh.pdf
Climate_Modelling_Saurabh.pdfClimate_Modelling_Saurabh.pdf
Climate_Modelling_Saurabh.pdf
AtikNawaz2
 
CCSP_CVC_12_02
CCSP_CVC_12_02CCSP_CVC_12_02
CCSP_CVC_12_02
guest66dc5f
 
S Olmos_vulnerability and adaptation
S Olmos_vulnerability and adaptationS Olmos_vulnerability and adaptation
S Olmos_vulnerability and adaptation
Santiago Olmos
 
Presentation at Adaptation Futures 2016 Conference
Presentation at Adaptation Futures 2016 ConferencePresentation at Adaptation Futures 2016 Conference
Presentation at Adaptation Futures 2016 Conference
the climate data factory
 
JRC/EU Bias Correction Workshop
JRC/EU Bias Correction WorkshopJRC/EU Bias Correction Workshop
JRC/EU Bias Correction Workshop
Harilaos Loukos
 
Understanding climate model evaluation and validation
Understanding climate model evaluation and validationUnderstanding climate model evaluation and validation
Understanding climate model evaluation and validation
Puneet Sharma
 
Climate risks
Climate risksClimate risks
Climate risks
cenafrica
 
Environment modelling and its environmental aspects
Environment modelling and its environmental aspectsEnvironment modelling and its environmental aspects
Environment modelling and its environmental aspects
Mansi Rastogi
 
Climate scenarios
Climate scenarios Climate scenarios
Climate scenarios
Mukhtar Ahmed
 
April 2010, Tri-State EPSCoR Meeting, Incline Village
April 2010, Tri-State EPSCoR Meeting, Incline VillageApril 2010, Tri-State EPSCoR Meeting, Incline Village
April 2010, Tri-State EPSCoR Meeting, Incline Village
Jeff Dozier
 
Sequence-to-Sequence Modeling for Time Series
Sequence-to-Sequence Modeling for Time SeriesSequence-to-Sequence Modeling for Time Series
Sequence-to-Sequence Modeling for Time Series
Arun Kejariwal
 
Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change in Fragile Resource Zones
Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change in Fragile Resource ZonesUnderstanding and Responding to Global Climate Change in Fragile Resource Zones
Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change in Fragile Resource Zones
ijtsrd
 

Similar to Presentación Andy Challinor - Foro Construcción Escenarios de Cambio Climático en los Andes (20)

Suraje Dessai - Uncertainty from above and encounters in the middle
Suraje Dessai - Uncertainty from above and encounters in the middleSuraje Dessai - Uncertainty from above and encounters in the middle
Suraje Dessai - Uncertainty from above and encounters in the middle
 
CLIM Fall 2017 Course: Statistics for Climate Research, Analysis for Climate ...
CLIM Fall 2017 Course: Statistics for Climate Research, Analysis for Climate ...CLIM Fall 2017 Course: Statistics for Climate Research, Analysis for Climate ...
CLIM Fall 2017 Course: Statistics for Climate Research, Analysis for Climate ...
 
Tim Palmer, University of Oxford - OECD Workshop on “Climate change, Assumpti...
Tim Palmer, University of Oxford - OECD Workshop on “Climate change, Assumpti...Tim Palmer, University of Oxford - OECD Workshop on “Climate change, Assumpti...
Tim Palmer, University of Oxford - OECD Workshop on “Climate change, Assumpti...
 
Climate Modeling and Future Climate Change Projections
Climate Modeling and Future Climate Change ProjectionsClimate Modeling and Future Climate Change Projections
Climate Modeling and Future Climate Change Projections
 
Module-1-prediction-of-health-impacts.ppt
Module-1-prediction-of-health-impacts.pptModule-1-prediction-of-health-impacts.ppt
Module-1-prediction-of-health-impacts.ppt
 
TCDF Pitch at ECCA 2017 Innovation Day
TCDF Pitch at ECCA 2017 Innovation Day TCDF Pitch at ECCA 2017 Innovation Day
TCDF Pitch at ECCA 2017 Innovation Day
 
Lesson 7 Basis for projection of climate change
Lesson 7   Basis for projection of climate changeLesson 7   Basis for projection of climate change
Lesson 7 Basis for projection of climate change
 
2014.12.01 - NAEC-Strategic Foresight Workshop_Session 6_Diana Mangalagiu
2014.12.01 - NAEC-Strategic Foresight Workshop_Session 6_Diana Mangalagiu2014.12.01 - NAEC-Strategic Foresight Workshop_Session 6_Diana Mangalagiu
2014.12.01 - NAEC-Strategic Foresight Workshop_Session 6_Diana Mangalagiu
 
Climate_Modelling_Saurabh.pdf
Climate_Modelling_Saurabh.pdfClimate_Modelling_Saurabh.pdf
Climate_Modelling_Saurabh.pdf
 
CCSP_CVC_12_02
CCSP_CVC_12_02CCSP_CVC_12_02
CCSP_CVC_12_02
 
S Olmos_vulnerability and adaptation
S Olmos_vulnerability and adaptationS Olmos_vulnerability and adaptation
S Olmos_vulnerability and adaptation
 
Presentation at Adaptation Futures 2016 Conference
Presentation at Adaptation Futures 2016 ConferencePresentation at Adaptation Futures 2016 Conference
Presentation at Adaptation Futures 2016 Conference
 
JRC/EU Bias Correction Workshop
JRC/EU Bias Correction WorkshopJRC/EU Bias Correction Workshop
JRC/EU Bias Correction Workshop
 
Understanding climate model evaluation and validation
Understanding climate model evaluation and validationUnderstanding climate model evaluation and validation
Understanding climate model evaluation and validation
 
Climate risks
Climate risksClimate risks
Climate risks
 
Environment modelling and its environmental aspects
Environment modelling and its environmental aspectsEnvironment modelling and its environmental aspects
Environment modelling and its environmental aspects
 
Climate scenarios
Climate scenarios Climate scenarios
Climate scenarios
 
April 2010, Tri-State EPSCoR Meeting, Incline Village
April 2010, Tri-State EPSCoR Meeting, Incline VillageApril 2010, Tri-State EPSCoR Meeting, Incline Village
April 2010, Tri-State EPSCoR Meeting, Incline Village
 
Sequence-to-Sequence Modeling for Time Series
Sequence-to-Sequence Modeling for Time SeriesSequence-to-Sequence Modeling for Time Series
Sequence-to-Sequence Modeling for Time Series
 
Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change in Fragile Resource Zones
Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change in Fragile Resource ZonesUnderstanding and Responding to Global Climate Change in Fragile Resource Zones
Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change in Fragile Resource Zones
 

More from Comunidad Practica Andes

2017 unigis webinar
2017 unigis webinar2017 unigis webinar
2017 unigis webinar
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
Sig en emergencias - unigis
Sig en emergencias - unigisSig en emergencias - unigis
Sig en emergencias - unigis
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
Conocimientos locales para la adaptación al cambio climático
Conocimientos locales para la adaptación al cambio climáticoConocimientos locales para la adaptación al cambio climático
Conocimientos locales para la adaptación al cambio climático
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
Degradación de suelos en América Latina por efectos del cambio climático
Degradación de  suelos en América Latina por efectos  del cambio climáticoDegradación de  suelos en América Latina por efectos  del cambio climático
Degradación de suelos en América Latina por efectos del cambio climático
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
Suelos y Cambio Climático en los Andes
Suelos y Cambio Climático en los AndesSuelos y Cambio Climático en los Andes
Suelos y Cambio Climático en los Andes
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
Suelos, Agricultura y Cambio Climático
Suelos, Agricultura y Cambio ClimáticoSuelos, Agricultura y Cambio Climático
Suelos, Agricultura y Cambio Climático
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
Evaluando Vulnerabilidad ante el Cambio Climático: Conceptos y una Aplicación...
Evaluando Vulnerabilidad ante el Cambio Climático: Conceptos y una Aplicación...Evaluando Vulnerabilidad ante el Cambio Climático: Conceptos y una Aplicación...
Evaluando Vulnerabilidad ante el Cambio Climático: Conceptos y una Aplicación...
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
La gestión del riesgo de desastres y su relación con el cambio climático
La gestión del riesgo de desastres y su relación con el cambio climáticoLa gestión del riesgo de desastres y su relación con el cambio climático
La gestión del riesgo de desastres y su relación con el cambio climático
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
De la vulnerabilidad al riesgo - Simplificando lo complejo
De la vulnerabilidad al riesgo - Simplificando lo complejoDe la vulnerabilidad al riesgo - Simplificando lo complejo
De la vulnerabilidad al riesgo - Simplificando lo complejo
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
Pago por servicios ambientales: concepto, definiciones, debates y aplicació...
Pago por servicios ambientales: concepto, definiciones, debates y aplicació...Pago por servicios ambientales: concepto, definiciones, debates y aplicació...
Pago por servicios ambientales: concepto, definiciones, debates y aplicació...
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
Pagos por Servicios Ambientales - Aspectos históricos y tendencias actuales e...
Pagos por Servicios Ambientales - Aspectos históricos y tendencias actuales e...Pagos por Servicios Ambientales - Aspectos históricos y tendencias actuales e...
Pagos por Servicios Ambientales - Aspectos históricos y tendencias actuales e...
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
Vida nueva para granos ancestrales: mejorando ingresos y la nutrición de comu...
Vida nueva para granos ancestrales: mejorando ingresos y la nutrición de comu...Vida nueva para granos ancestrales: mejorando ingresos y la nutrición de comu...
Vida nueva para granos ancestrales: mejorando ingresos y la nutrición de comu...
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
Como evoluciona un paisaje agrícola, el caso de los llanos de Mojos
Como evoluciona un paisaje agrícola, el caso de los llanos de MojosComo evoluciona un paisaje agrícola, el caso de los llanos de Mojos
Como evoluciona un paisaje agrícola, el caso de los llanos de Mojos
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
Impacto de la Variabilidad Climática sobre el Sector Agropecuario y Medidas d...
Impacto de la Variabilidad Climática sobre el Sector Agropecuario y Medidas d...Impacto de la Variabilidad Climática sobre el Sector Agropecuario y Medidas d...
Impacto de la Variabilidad Climática sobre el Sector Agropecuario y Medidas d...
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
Construcción de Sistemas de Alertas Agroclimáticas Participativas con Comunid...
Construcción de Sistemas de Alertas Agroclimáticas Participativas con Comunid...Construcción de Sistemas de Alertas Agroclimáticas Participativas con Comunid...
Construcción de Sistemas de Alertas Agroclimáticas Participativas con Comunid...
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
Pronósticos AgroClimáticos Participativos para la Gestión de Riesgos en la Ag...
Pronósticos AgroClimáticos Participativos para la Gestión de Riesgos en la Ag...Pronósticos AgroClimáticos Participativos para la Gestión de Riesgos en la Ag...
Pronósticos AgroClimáticos Participativos para la Gestión de Riesgos en la Ag...
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
Predicción del clima y generación de pronósticos para la modelación de cultivos
Predicción del clima y generación de pronósticos para la modelación de cultivosPredicción del clima y generación de pronósticos para la modelación de cultivos
Predicción del clima y generación de pronósticos para la modelación de cultivos
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
Vulnerabilidad del Recurso Hídrico frente a la Variabilidad y el Cambio Climá...
Vulnerabilidad del Recurso Hídrico frente a la Variabilidad y el Cambio Climá...Vulnerabilidad del Recurso Hídrico frente a la Variabilidad y el Cambio Climá...
Vulnerabilidad del Recurso Hídrico frente a la Variabilidad y el Cambio Climá...
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
Evaluación de Sequías Metereologicas y Procesos de Adaptación de las Comunida...
Evaluación de Sequías Metereologicas y Procesos de Adaptación de las Comunida...Evaluación de Sequías Metereologicas y Procesos de Adaptación de las Comunida...
Evaluación de Sequías Metereologicas y Procesos de Adaptación de las Comunida...
Comunidad Practica Andes
 
Coleccion de Agua de Neblina: Una Estrategia de Adaptacion al Cambio Climatic...
Coleccion de Agua de Neblina: Una Estrategia de Adaptacion al Cambio Climatic...Coleccion de Agua de Neblina: Una Estrategia de Adaptacion al Cambio Climatic...
Coleccion de Agua de Neblina: Una Estrategia de Adaptacion al Cambio Climatic...
Comunidad Practica Andes
 

More from Comunidad Practica Andes (20)

2017 unigis webinar
2017 unigis webinar2017 unigis webinar
2017 unigis webinar
 
Sig en emergencias - unigis
Sig en emergencias - unigisSig en emergencias - unigis
Sig en emergencias - unigis
 
Conocimientos locales para la adaptación al cambio climático
Conocimientos locales para la adaptación al cambio climáticoConocimientos locales para la adaptación al cambio climático
Conocimientos locales para la adaptación al cambio climático
 
Degradación de suelos en América Latina por efectos del cambio climático
Degradación de  suelos en América Latina por efectos  del cambio climáticoDegradación de  suelos en América Latina por efectos  del cambio climático
Degradación de suelos en América Latina por efectos del cambio climático
 
Suelos y Cambio Climático en los Andes
Suelos y Cambio Climático en los AndesSuelos y Cambio Climático en los Andes
Suelos y Cambio Climático en los Andes
 
Suelos, Agricultura y Cambio Climático
Suelos, Agricultura y Cambio ClimáticoSuelos, Agricultura y Cambio Climático
Suelos, Agricultura y Cambio Climático
 
Evaluando Vulnerabilidad ante el Cambio Climático: Conceptos y una Aplicación...
Evaluando Vulnerabilidad ante el Cambio Climático: Conceptos y una Aplicación...Evaluando Vulnerabilidad ante el Cambio Climático: Conceptos y una Aplicación...
Evaluando Vulnerabilidad ante el Cambio Climático: Conceptos y una Aplicación...
 
La gestión del riesgo de desastres y su relación con el cambio climático
La gestión del riesgo de desastres y su relación con el cambio climáticoLa gestión del riesgo de desastres y su relación con el cambio climático
La gestión del riesgo de desastres y su relación con el cambio climático
 
De la vulnerabilidad al riesgo - Simplificando lo complejo
De la vulnerabilidad al riesgo - Simplificando lo complejoDe la vulnerabilidad al riesgo - Simplificando lo complejo
De la vulnerabilidad al riesgo - Simplificando lo complejo
 
Pago por servicios ambientales: concepto, definiciones, debates y aplicació...
Pago por servicios ambientales: concepto, definiciones, debates y aplicació...Pago por servicios ambientales: concepto, definiciones, debates y aplicació...
Pago por servicios ambientales: concepto, definiciones, debates y aplicació...
 
Pagos por Servicios Ambientales - Aspectos históricos y tendencias actuales e...
Pagos por Servicios Ambientales - Aspectos históricos y tendencias actuales e...Pagos por Servicios Ambientales - Aspectos históricos y tendencias actuales e...
Pagos por Servicios Ambientales - Aspectos históricos y tendencias actuales e...
 
Vida nueva para granos ancestrales: mejorando ingresos y la nutrición de comu...
Vida nueva para granos ancestrales: mejorando ingresos y la nutrición de comu...Vida nueva para granos ancestrales: mejorando ingresos y la nutrición de comu...
Vida nueva para granos ancestrales: mejorando ingresos y la nutrición de comu...
 
Como evoluciona un paisaje agrícola, el caso de los llanos de Mojos
Como evoluciona un paisaje agrícola, el caso de los llanos de MojosComo evoluciona un paisaje agrícola, el caso de los llanos de Mojos
Como evoluciona un paisaje agrícola, el caso de los llanos de Mojos
 
Impacto de la Variabilidad Climática sobre el Sector Agropecuario y Medidas d...
Impacto de la Variabilidad Climática sobre el Sector Agropecuario y Medidas d...Impacto de la Variabilidad Climática sobre el Sector Agropecuario y Medidas d...
Impacto de la Variabilidad Climática sobre el Sector Agropecuario y Medidas d...
 
Construcción de Sistemas de Alertas Agroclimáticas Participativas con Comunid...
Construcción de Sistemas de Alertas Agroclimáticas Participativas con Comunid...Construcción de Sistemas de Alertas Agroclimáticas Participativas con Comunid...
Construcción de Sistemas de Alertas Agroclimáticas Participativas con Comunid...
 
Pronósticos AgroClimáticos Participativos para la Gestión de Riesgos en la Ag...
Pronósticos AgroClimáticos Participativos para la Gestión de Riesgos en la Ag...Pronósticos AgroClimáticos Participativos para la Gestión de Riesgos en la Ag...
Pronósticos AgroClimáticos Participativos para la Gestión de Riesgos en la Ag...
 
Predicción del clima y generación de pronósticos para la modelación de cultivos
Predicción del clima y generación de pronósticos para la modelación de cultivosPredicción del clima y generación de pronósticos para la modelación de cultivos
Predicción del clima y generación de pronósticos para la modelación de cultivos
 
Vulnerabilidad del Recurso Hídrico frente a la Variabilidad y el Cambio Climá...
Vulnerabilidad del Recurso Hídrico frente a la Variabilidad y el Cambio Climá...Vulnerabilidad del Recurso Hídrico frente a la Variabilidad y el Cambio Climá...
Vulnerabilidad del Recurso Hídrico frente a la Variabilidad y el Cambio Climá...
 
Evaluación de Sequías Metereologicas y Procesos de Adaptación de las Comunida...
Evaluación de Sequías Metereologicas y Procesos de Adaptación de las Comunida...Evaluación de Sequías Metereologicas y Procesos de Adaptación de las Comunida...
Evaluación de Sequías Metereologicas y Procesos de Adaptación de las Comunida...
 
Coleccion de Agua de Neblina: Una Estrategia de Adaptacion al Cambio Climatic...
Coleccion de Agua de Neblina: Una Estrategia de Adaptacion al Cambio Climatic...Coleccion de Agua de Neblina: Una Estrategia de Adaptacion al Cambio Climatic...
Coleccion de Agua de Neblina: Una Estrategia de Adaptacion al Cambio Climatic...
 

Recently uploaded

The Impact of the Internet of Things (IoT) on Smart Homes and Cities
The Impact of the Internet of Things (IoT) on Smart Homes and CitiesThe Impact of the Internet of Things (IoT) on Smart Homes and Cities
The Impact of the Internet of Things (IoT) on Smart Homes and Cities
Arpan Buwa
 
(CISOPlatform Summit & SACON 2024) Cyber Insurance & Risk Quantification.pdf
(CISOPlatform Summit & SACON 2024) Cyber Insurance & Risk Quantification.pdf(CISOPlatform Summit & SACON 2024) Cyber Insurance & Risk Quantification.pdf
(CISOPlatform Summit & SACON 2024) Cyber Insurance & Risk Quantification.pdf
Priyanka Aash
 
How UiPath Discovery Suite supports identification of Agentic Process Automat...
How UiPath Discovery Suite supports identification of Agentic Process Automat...How UiPath Discovery Suite supports identification of Agentic Process Automat...
How UiPath Discovery Suite supports identification of Agentic Process Automat...
DianaGray10
 
(CISOPlatform Summit & SACON 2024) Orientation by CISO Platform_ Using CISO P...
(CISOPlatform Summit & SACON 2024) Orientation by CISO Platform_ Using CISO P...(CISOPlatform Summit & SACON 2024) Orientation by CISO Platform_ Using CISO P...
(CISOPlatform Summit & SACON 2024) Orientation by CISO Platform_ Using CISO P...
Priyanka Aash
 
Using LLM Agents with Llama 3, LangGraph and Milvus
Using LLM Agents with Llama 3, LangGraph and MilvusUsing LLM Agents with Llama 3, LangGraph and Milvus
Using LLM Agents with Llama 3, LangGraph and Milvus
Zilliz
 
July Patch Tuesday
July Patch TuesdayJuly Patch Tuesday
July Patch Tuesday
Ivanti
 
Mastering OnlyFans Clone App Development: Key Strategies for Success
Mastering OnlyFans Clone App Development: Key Strategies for SuccessMastering OnlyFans Clone App Development: Key Strategies for Success
Mastering OnlyFans Clone App Development: Key Strategies for Success
David Wilson
 
Sonkoloniya documentation - ONEprojukti.pdf
Sonkoloniya documentation - ONEprojukti.pdfSonkoloniya documentation - ONEprojukti.pdf
Sonkoloniya documentation - ONEprojukti.pdf
SubhamMandal40
 
MAKE MONEY ONLINE Unlock Your Income Potential Today.pptx
MAKE MONEY ONLINE Unlock Your Income Potential Today.pptxMAKE MONEY ONLINE Unlock Your Income Potential Today.pptx
MAKE MONEY ONLINE Unlock Your Income Potential Today.pptx
janagijoythi
 
Use Cases & Benefits of RPA in Manufacturing in 2024.pptx
Use Cases & Benefits of RPA in Manufacturing in 2024.pptxUse Cases & Benefits of RPA in Manufacturing in 2024.pptx
Use Cases & Benefits of RPA in Manufacturing in 2024.pptx
SynapseIndia
 
Semantic-Aware Code Model: Elevating the Future of Software Development
Semantic-Aware Code Model: Elevating the Future of Software DevelopmentSemantic-Aware Code Model: Elevating the Future of Software Development
Semantic-Aware Code Model: Elevating the Future of Software Development
Baishakhi Ray
 
Introduction-to-the-IAM-Platform-Implementation-Plan.pptx
Introduction-to-the-IAM-Platform-Implementation-Plan.pptxIntroduction-to-the-IAM-Platform-Implementation-Plan.pptx
Introduction-to-the-IAM-Platform-Implementation-Plan.pptx
313mohammedarshad
 
Computer HARDWARE presenattion by CWD students class 10
Computer HARDWARE presenattion by CWD students class 10Computer HARDWARE presenattion by CWD students class 10
Computer HARDWARE presenattion by CWD students class 10
ankush9927
 
High Profile Girls Call ServiCe Hyderabad 0000000000 Tanisha Best High Class ...
High Profile Girls Call ServiCe Hyderabad 0000000000 Tanisha Best High Class ...High Profile Girls Call ServiCe Hyderabad 0000000000 Tanisha Best High Class ...
High Profile Girls Call ServiCe Hyderabad 0000000000 Tanisha Best High Class ...
aslasdfmkhan4750
 
Acumatica vs. Sage Intacct _Construction_July (1).pptx
Acumatica vs. Sage Intacct _Construction_July (1).pptxAcumatica vs. Sage Intacct _Construction_July (1).pptx
Acumatica vs. Sage Intacct _Construction_July (1).pptx
BrainSell Technologies
 
Uncharted Together- Navigating AI's New Frontiers in Libraries
Uncharted Together- Navigating AI's New Frontiers in LibrariesUncharted Together- Navigating AI's New Frontiers in Libraries
Uncharted Together- Navigating AI's New Frontiers in Libraries
Brian Pichman
 
IPLOOK Remote-Sensing Satellite Solution
IPLOOK Remote-Sensing Satellite SolutionIPLOOK Remote-Sensing Satellite Solution
IPLOOK Remote-Sensing Satellite Solution
IPLOOK Networks
 
Vertex AI Agent Builder - GDG Alicante - Julio 2024
Vertex AI Agent Builder - GDG Alicante - Julio 2024Vertex AI Agent Builder - GDG Alicante - Julio 2024
Vertex AI Agent Builder - GDG Alicante - Julio 2024
Nicolás Lopéz
 
Vulnerability Management: A Comprehensive Overview
Vulnerability Management: A Comprehensive OverviewVulnerability Management: A Comprehensive Overview
Vulnerability Management: A Comprehensive Overview
Steven Carlson
 
Feature sql server terbaru performance.pptx
Feature sql server terbaru performance.pptxFeature sql server terbaru performance.pptx
Feature sql server terbaru performance.pptx
ssuser1915fe1
 

Recently uploaded (20)

The Impact of the Internet of Things (IoT) on Smart Homes and Cities
The Impact of the Internet of Things (IoT) on Smart Homes and CitiesThe Impact of the Internet of Things (IoT) on Smart Homes and Cities
The Impact of the Internet of Things (IoT) on Smart Homes and Cities
 
(CISOPlatform Summit & SACON 2024) Cyber Insurance & Risk Quantification.pdf
(CISOPlatform Summit & SACON 2024) Cyber Insurance & Risk Quantification.pdf(CISOPlatform Summit & SACON 2024) Cyber Insurance & Risk Quantification.pdf
(CISOPlatform Summit & SACON 2024) Cyber Insurance & Risk Quantification.pdf
 
How UiPath Discovery Suite supports identification of Agentic Process Automat...
How UiPath Discovery Suite supports identification of Agentic Process Automat...How UiPath Discovery Suite supports identification of Agentic Process Automat...
How UiPath Discovery Suite supports identification of Agentic Process Automat...
 
(CISOPlatform Summit & SACON 2024) Orientation by CISO Platform_ Using CISO P...
(CISOPlatform Summit & SACON 2024) Orientation by CISO Platform_ Using CISO P...(CISOPlatform Summit & SACON 2024) Orientation by CISO Platform_ Using CISO P...
(CISOPlatform Summit & SACON 2024) Orientation by CISO Platform_ Using CISO P...
 
Using LLM Agents with Llama 3, LangGraph and Milvus
Using LLM Agents with Llama 3, LangGraph and MilvusUsing LLM Agents with Llama 3, LangGraph and Milvus
Using LLM Agents with Llama 3, LangGraph and Milvus
 
July Patch Tuesday
July Patch TuesdayJuly Patch Tuesday
July Patch Tuesday
 
Mastering OnlyFans Clone App Development: Key Strategies for Success
Mastering OnlyFans Clone App Development: Key Strategies for SuccessMastering OnlyFans Clone App Development: Key Strategies for Success
Mastering OnlyFans Clone App Development: Key Strategies for Success
 
Sonkoloniya documentation - ONEprojukti.pdf
Sonkoloniya documentation - ONEprojukti.pdfSonkoloniya documentation - ONEprojukti.pdf
Sonkoloniya documentation - ONEprojukti.pdf
 
MAKE MONEY ONLINE Unlock Your Income Potential Today.pptx
MAKE MONEY ONLINE Unlock Your Income Potential Today.pptxMAKE MONEY ONLINE Unlock Your Income Potential Today.pptx
MAKE MONEY ONLINE Unlock Your Income Potential Today.pptx
 
Use Cases & Benefits of RPA in Manufacturing in 2024.pptx
Use Cases & Benefits of RPA in Manufacturing in 2024.pptxUse Cases & Benefits of RPA in Manufacturing in 2024.pptx
Use Cases & Benefits of RPA in Manufacturing in 2024.pptx
 
Semantic-Aware Code Model: Elevating the Future of Software Development
Semantic-Aware Code Model: Elevating the Future of Software DevelopmentSemantic-Aware Code Model: Elevating the Future of Software Development
Semantic-Aware Code Model: Elevating the Future of Software Development
 
Introduction-to-the-IAM-Platform-Implementation-Plan.pptx
Introduction-to-the-IAM-Platform-Implementation-Plan.pptxIntroduction-to-the-IAM-Platform-Implementation-Plan.pptx
Introduction-to-the-IAM-Platform-Implementation-Plan.pptx
 
Computer HARDWARE presenattion by CWD students class 10
Computer HARDWARE presenattion by CWD students class 10Computer HARDWARE presenattion by CWD students class 10
Computer HARDWARE presenattion by CWD students class 10
 
High Profile Girls Call ServiCe Hyderabad 0000000000 Tanisha Best High Class ...
High Profile Girls Call ServiCe Hyderabad 0000000000 Tanisha Best High Class ...High Profile Girls Call ServiCe Hyderabad 0000000000 Tanisha Best High Class ...
High Profile Girls Call ServiCe Hyderabad 0000000000 Tanisha Best High Class ...
 
Acumatica vs. Sage Intacct _Construction_July (1).pptx
Acumatica vs. Sage Intacct _Construction_July (1).pptxAcumatica vs. Sage Intacct _Construction_July (1).pptx
Acumatica vs. Sage Intacct _Construction_July (1).pptx
 
Uncharted Together- Navigating AI's New Frontiers in Libraries
Uncharted Together- Navigating AI's New Frontiers in LibrariesUncharted Together- Navigating AI's New Frontiers in Libraries
Uncharted Together- Navigating AI's New Frontiers in Libraries
 
IPLOOK Remote-Sensing Satellite Solution
IPLOOK Remote-Sensing Satellite SolutionIPLOOK Remote-Sensing Satellite Solution
IPLOOK Remote-Sensing Satellite Solution
 
Vertex AI Agent Builder - GDG Alicante - Julio 2024
Vertex AI Agent Builder - GDG Alicante - Julio 2024Vertex AI Agent Builder - GDG Alicante - Julio 2024
Vertex AI Agent Builder - GDG Alicante - Julio 2024
 
Vulnerability Management: A Comprehensive Overview
Vulnerability Management: A Comprehensive OverviewVulnerability Management: A Comprehensive Overview
Vulnerability Management: A Comprehensive Overview
 
Feature sql server terbaru performance.pptx
Feature sql server terbaru performance.pptxFeature sql server terbaru performance.pptx
Feature sql server terbaru performance.pptx
 

Presentación Andy Challinor - Foro Construcción Escenarios de Cambio Climático en los Andes

  • 1. Comentarios acerca de las presentaciones de los países Andy Challinor A.J.Challinor@leeds.ac.uk School of Earth and Environment
  • 2. Temas 1. “Considera que los escenarios se acercan a lo que realmente sucediera?” – Incertidumbre (CIAT-PNUMA,IDEAM, SENHAMI) – Downscaling (INHAMI, SENHAMI) 2. Predictibilidad actual del clima (SENHAMI, IDEAM) – Variabilidad del clima – Detectación del cambio climático 3. Vulnerabilidad y adaptación (INHAMI, SENHAMI, CIAT-PNUMA) 4. Síntesis
  • 3. • We don’t know by how much our models are in error because we don’t know the error: – in model inputs (e.g. initial conditions, boundary conditions, parameters, driving variables) – in model structure (inc. spatial and temporal discretization) – resulting from intrinsic stochastic variability What is uncertainty?
  • 4. Predictability varies spatially and temporally Hawkins and Sutton (2009) – Bull. Am. Met. Soc. Signal to noise ratio for decadal mean surface air temperature predictions 4 Este análisis se puede hacer para cultivos (Vermuelen et al., 2013)
  • 5. Schlenker & Roberts (2009) - PNAS Vara Prasad et al (2001) DailyTmax of 29-30°C Flower bud temperature (oC) 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 Fruitset(%) 0 20 40 60 Groundnut in controlled environmentsMaize using county-level yields DailyT of 32-39 °C , depending on timing Scale dependency of biophysical relationships • If this scale dependency can be further understood then models could improve, thus reducing uncertainty • To do this, need to put together diverse types of models
  • 6. Importancia de cuantificar incertidumbre Ensemble crop-climate modelling to inform adaptation Percentageofharvestsfailing Adaptation None Temperature Water Temp+Wat None Temperature Water Temp+Wat Adaptation 1 x σ events 2 x σ events Percentageofharvestsfailing Challinor et al. (2010) – Environmental Research Letters
  • 7. Increase in GMT (oC) 2 x σ crop failure events Percentageofharvestsfailing 0-2 (6720) 2-4 (5832) 4-6 (2352) 6-8 (56) Error bars or contingent statements? Δ food system Precision Relevance / complexity Δyield ΔCO2 Δclimate Challinor (2009a) A1B QUMP(17) GLAM(8) Challinor et al. (2010)
  • 8. Identifying key sources of uncertainty: focus on processes not ranges The use of models as black boxes, with the associated focus on model outputs, places a significant burden on the model to correctly reproduce the interactions between processes. • Often unclear which processes have been simulated within a given ag. impacts study (White et al., 2011). • Points to need for impacts model intercomparison projects to clearly document which processes are simulated and synthesise the results of numerous models. Use contingent statements to express trade-offs: ‘What are the limiting processes?’ vs ‘what will happen to impact variable x?’ “Warmer temperatures will reduce the time to maturity of crops, thus reducing yield. Increases in rainfall compensate for this in 40-60% of cases” vs. “yields decrease by 10-70%.” Identify key uncertainties, determine which are reducible and which are not See Challinor et al. (2012), part of a special issue of Ag. For. Met. “Agricultural prediction using climate model ensembles”
  • 9. Relationship between spatial scale and uncertainty Do increases in model resolution improve simulation skill? Yes! For mean temperature Not really… For precipitation Dashed lines are the means of CMIP3 Julian Ramirez
  • 10. Examine count of Tmax>30oC as this is known to be important Can use observations to measure error, and to correct for it in projections • A number of methods exist for doing this with GCMs • Unclear which is best Downscaling as a ‘source’ of uncertainty “Nudging” “Delta approaches” Observations GCM baseline GCM raw Prediction Obs GCM b GCM raw Pred Hawkins et al. (2012) – Ag. For. Met.
  • 11. IPSL SRES A1B minus A2 (raw) Nudging minus Delta when QUMP used to predict IPSL 2xσ across QUMP with Bias cor. 2030-2059 Tmax > 30.C Uncertainty in the bias of the climate model is significant – i.e. the choice of climate model error correction is a significant source of uncertainty in crop impacts assessments Hawkins et al. (2012)  “Perfect sibling” approach: reference simulation of current climate treated as future observations HADCM3 QUMP sibling models and IPSL, which is structurally different
  • 12. Como presentar incertidumbre Analysis of climate models to tell us ‘when’ (rather than ‘if’) • A1B and A2 are similar if you are posing the question “when will 2oC be exceeded?” • But for 3oC they are significantly different Joshi et al. (2012) – Nature Climate Change
  • 13. “Improved treatments of uncertainty: recent progress and implications” March 13th and 14th 2013, London • Review EQUIP progress and take a forward-looking view of uncertainty quantification at both weather and climate timescales. • Use of uncertain climate and impacts information • Africa-focussed session EQUIP: un proyecto sobre el incertidumbre en clima y sus impactos www.equip.leeds.ac.uk Special issue of Climatic Change: improving the quantification of uncertainty across models of climate and its impacts. Quantifying and communicating uncertainty in climate and its impacts Anna Weisslink, Andy Challinor Using observations to constrain climate forecasts Friederike Otto, Myles Allen, … Statistical benchmark models for impacts prediction Emma Suckling, Lenny Smith Required weather characteristics for climate impact projections Hawkins, Ferro & Stephenson Evaluating climate predictions: when is hindcast performance a guide to forecast performance? Friederike Otto, Emma Suckling, Chris Ferro, Tom Fricker Attributing impacts of external climate drivers on extreme precipitation events in Europe Sue Rosier Predicting impact relevant changes in heatwaves and water availability / Benefit of intialisation for decadal prediction of summer heatwave indices Helen Hanlon, G. Hegerl, Chris Kilsby, S Tett, Assessment of risk of marine eutrophication, past present and future. Stefan Saux Picart & Momme Butenschon The communication of science and uncertainty in European National Adaptation Strategies Susanne Lorenz, Suraje Dessai, Jouni Paavola, Piers Forster ….
  • 14. 2. Predictibilidad actual del clima • Variabilidad del clima • Detectación del cambio climático • Cambios en variabilidad – poco investigado
  • 15. Detection of climate change: importance of internal climate variability Ed Hawkins Central England Temperature
  • 16. The role of internal climate variability: example of Central England Temperature – very different oC/decade climate change! Ed Hawkins
  • 17. Emergence of signals in impacts: means vs variability • In impacts studies the focus is often on mean changes, e.g. in crop yields. Variability is often not reported, or it is used as an error bar • Clear signals in mean yields may not be possible until late in the century Challinor et al. (2013) Trop and temp Mostly tropical
  • 18. Changes in variability may become clearer sooner than changes in the mean Challinor et al. (2013)
  • 19. Australian wheat harvest failure Russian wheat harvest failure Changes in variability, and their numerous interactions, may already be emerging as key drivers
  • 20. 3. Vulnerabilidad y adaptacion • Two paradigms • Importance of social sciences
  • 21. Notes: Yellow arrows: the cycle of cause and effect among the four quadrants. Blue arrow: societal response to climate change impacts. Dominant perspective: 1. physical sciences Integrated assessment framework for considering anthropogenic climate change. Questions of interest: Predictive: How will people respond? Prescriptive: How should people respond?
  • 22. Dominant perspective: 2. social science Sustainable livelihoods framework The arrows within the framework are used as shorthand to denote a variety of different types of relationships, all of which are highly dynamic. None of the arrows imply direct causality, though all imply a certain level of influence. Question: How can we reduce social vulnerability to climate impacts?
  • 23. 4. Síntesis Challinor et al. (2009b) “insufficiently constrained” (?) Impreciso e inútil (?) Preciso / exacto pero incorrecto (?)
  • 24. Data assimilation – the ‘fourth dimension’ Importancia de las observaciones para reducir incertidumbre • Porque se pueden usar para cuantificar los errores de los modelos • Los institutos nacionales de meteorología tienen una extensa red meteorológica – se podían usar para esto
  • 25. Conclusiones • Tratamiento de incertidumbre – Muy importante cuantificar incertidumbre y estar consciente de construir buenas “contingent statements” o “descriptions of trade-offs” – Puede que haya menos incertidumbre en zonas montañosas (Vermuelen et al. 2013, Laderach et al.) – cf CIAT-PNUMA – Método de downscaling tiene implicaciones para incertidumbre • Presentar incertidumbre using the time axis • Importancia de cuantificar cambios de variabilidad • Importancia de ciencias sociales para analizar a la vulnerabilidad
  • 26. References • Challinor et al (2012) available at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016819231200281X • Challinor AJ, Simelton ES, Fraser EDG, Hemming D, & Collins M (2010) Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China. Environmental Research Letters 5(3):034012. • Challinor, A. J., T. Osborne, A. Morse, L. Shaffrey, T. Wheeler, H. Weller (2009b). Methods and resources for climate impacts research: achieving synergy. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90 (6), 825-835 • Challinor AJ, Ewert F, Arnold S, Simelton E, & Fraser E (2009a) Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation. Journal of Experimental Botany 60(10):2775-2789. • Challinor AJ & Wheeler TR (2008) Use of a crop model ensemble to quantify CO2 stimulation of water-stressed and well-watered crops. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 148(6-7):1062-1077. • Joshi M, Hawkins E, Sutton R, Lowe J, & Frame D (2011) Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2 [deg]C above pre-industrial levels. Nature Clim. Change 1(8):407-412. • Hawkins et al (2012) available at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192312001372 • Watson and Challinor (2012) available at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192312002535