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© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
1 
Perils of Perception 
A FOURTEEN COUNTRY STUDY
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
2 
These are the findings from our 14 
country study looking at how accurate – 
or inaccurate – people are when asked 
to estimate basic facts about their 
population or social issues. 
It shows how wrong we often are: 
Perceptions are not reality…
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
3 
IN YOUR OPINION WHAT 
PERCENTAGE OF GIRLS AGED 
BETWEEN 15 AND 19 GIVE 
BIRTH EACH YEAR?
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
4 
24 3 
18 1 
17 0.5 
16 2 
15 1 
16 3 
15 2 
14 0.4 
14 0.2 
14 1 
12 0.6 
11 0.7 
11 0.5 
8 0.7 
+21 
+17 
+17 
+14 
+14 
+14 
+14 
+14 
+13 
+13 
+12 
+11 
+10 
+7 
US 
Poland 
Italy 
Hungary 
Canada 
Great Britain 
Australia 
Germany 
South Korea 
Spain 
France 
Belgium 
Japan 
Sweden 
AVG. 
% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL 
Q. In your opinion 
what percentage of 
girls aged between 15 
and 19 give birth each 
year? 
People across the 
world hugely 
overestimate the 
proportion of 
teenagers who 
give birth each 
year.
25 
20 
15 
10 
5 
© Ipsos MORI 
People across the world hugely 
overestimate the proportion of 
teenagers who give birth each 
The dashed line is a 45 
degree line. Countries above 
the line have, on average, 
guessed too high while 
countries below have 
guessed too low 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
5 
Average guess % 
year. 
Q. In your opinion 
what percentage of 
girls aged between 15 
and 19 give birth each 
year? 
% Girls aged between 16 and 19 years that give birth each year 
0 
0 1 2 3 4
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
6 
WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE 
POPULATION DO YOU THINK ARE 
IMMIGRANTS TO THIS 
COUNTRY?
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
7 
30 7 
32 13 
29 10 
28 10 
16 2 
35 21 
14 1.75 
24 13 
23 12 
23 13 
10 2 
10 2 
23 16 
35 28 
+23 
+19 
+19 
+18 
+14 
+14 
+12 
+11 
+11 
+10 
+8 
+8 
+7 
+7 
Italy 
US 
Belgium 
France 
Hungary 
Canada 
Poland 
Great Britain 
Spain 
Germany 
Japan 
South Korea 
Sweden 
Australia 
AVG. 
% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL 
Q. What percentage of 
the population do you 
think are immigrants to 
this country? 
All countries 
overestimate 
their level of 
immigration
40 
35 
30 
25 
20 
15 
10 
5 
© Ipsos MORI 
overestimate their 
level of immigration 
The dashed line is a 45 
degree line. Countries above 
the line have, on average, 
guessed too high while 
countries below have 
guessed too low 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
8 
Average guess % 
Q. What percentage of 
the population do you 
think are immigrants to 
All countries 
% Immigrants to this country 
0 
this country? 
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
9 
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW 
MANY DO YOU THINK ARE 
MUSLIM?
© Ipsos MORI 
AVG. 
GUESS ACTUAL 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
10 
31 8 
29 6 
20 2 
18 2 
21 5 
20 4 
15 1 
16 2 
19 6 
17 5 
7 0.1 
5 0.4 
5 0.1 
4 0.1 
+23 
+23 
+18 
+16 
+16 
+16 
+14 
+14 
+13 
% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH 
+12 
+7 
+5 
+5 
+4 
France 
Belgium 
Canada 
Australia 
Great Britain 
Italy 
US 
Spain 
Germany 
Sweden 
Hungary 
South Korea 
Poland 
Japan 
Q. Out of every 100 
people how many do 
you think are Muslim? 
People in a 
number of 
countries 
massively 
overestimate 
the proportion 
of Muslims
Q. Out of every 100 
People in a number of 
countries massively 
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut 
labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco 
laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in 
voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. 
35 
30 
25 
20 
15 
10 
5 
© Ipsos MORI 
overestimate the proportion 
The dashed line is a 45 
degree line. Countries above 
the line have, on average, 
guessed too high while 
countries below have 
guessed too low 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
11 
Average guess % 
of Muslims 
% Muslims 
0 
people how many do 
you think are Muslim? 
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW 
MANY DO YOU THINK ARE 
CHRISTIAN? 
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
12 
National 
Perceptions
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
13 
+13 
+10 
+9 
-14 
-14 
-15 
-15 
-16 
-18 
-19 
-20 
-21 
-22 
South Korea 
Japan 
Hungary 
Germany 
Italy 
France 
Spain 
Poland 
Australia 
Belgium 
Sweden 
Great Britain 
Canada 
US 
42 29 
12 2 
62 53 
58 58 
69 83 
49 63 
62 77 
79 94 
45 61 
46 64 
48 67 
39 59 
49 69 
56 78 
% POINT DIFFERENCE 
AVG. 
TOO LOW TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL 
Q. Out of every 100 
people how many do 
you think are Christian? 
In contrast to the 
Muslim question, 
majority-Christian 
countries tend to 
underestimate 
how many people 
count themselves 
as Christian.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut 
labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco 
laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in 
voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. 
100 
90 
80 
70 
60 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
14 
0 
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 
Average guess % 
% Christians 
Q. Out of every 100 
people how many do 
you think are Christian? 
In contrast to the Muslim 
question, majority-Christian 
countries tend to underestimate 
how many people count 
themselves as Christian. 
The dashed line is a 45 
degree line. Countries above 
the line have, on average, 
guessed too high while 
countries below have 
guessed too low
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW 
MANY DO YOU THINK ARE 
OVER 65? 
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
15 
National 
Perceptions
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
16 
48 21 
42 15 
39 14 
43 18 
37 14 
36 14 
40 18 
41 19 
38 18 
37 17 
40 21 
41 25 
32 16 
33 19 
+27 
+27 
+25 
+25 
+23 
+22 
+22 
+22 
+20 
+20 
+19 
+16 
+16 
+14 
Italy 
Poland 
Canada 
Spain 
Australia 
US 
Hungary 
Belgium 
France 
Great Britain 
Germany 
Japan 
South Korea 
Sweden 
AVG. 
% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL 
Q. Out of every 100 
people how many do 
you think are over 65? 
All countries 
hugely 
overestimate the 
proportion of 
their population 
aged 65+
Q. Out of every 100 
All countries hugely 
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut 
labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco 
laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in 
voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. 
50 
45 
40 
35 
30 
25 
20 
15 
10 
5 
© Ipsos MORI 
overestimate the proportion 
of their population aged 65+ 
The dashed line is a 45 
degree line. Countries above 
the line have, on average, 
guessed too high while 
countries below have 
guessed too low 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
17 
Average guess % 
% Over 65 
0 
people how many do 
you think are over 65? 
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
OUT OF EVERY 100 ELIGIBLE 
VOTERS ABOUT HOW MANY DO 
YOU THINK VOTED IN THE LAST 
ELECTION? 
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
18 
National 
Perceptions
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
19 
57 80 
54 75 
49 66 
47 64 
60 76 
43 59 
55 69 
58 72 
72 85 
51 61 
84 93 
42 49 
85 89 
% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO LOW 
-4 
-1 57 58 
-7 
-10 
-9 
-17 
-17 
-16 
-14 
-14 
-13 
-16 
-23 
-21 
AVG. 
GUESS ACTUAL 
France 
Italy 
Great Britain 
Hungary 
South Korea 
Japan 
Spain 
Germany 
Sweden 
Canada 
Australia 
Poland 
Belgium 
US 
Q. Out of every 100 
eligible voters how 
many do you think 
voted in the last 
election? 
All countries 
underestimate 
the proportion of 
the population 
that voted in the 
last major 
national 
election
Q. Out of every 100 
eligible voters how 
All countries underestimate 
the proportion of the 
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut 
labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco 
laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in 
voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. 
90 
80 
70 
60 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
© Ipsos MORI 
population that voted in the 
last major national election 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
20 
Average guess % 
many do you think 
% Voted in last election 
0 
voted in the last 
election? 
The dashed line is a 45 
degree line. Countries above 
the line have, on average, 
guessed too high while 
countries below have 
guessed too low 
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE OF 
WORKING AGE ABOUT HOW 
MANY DO YOU THINK ARE 
UNEMPLOYED AND LOOKING 
FOR WORK? 
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
21 
National 
Perceptions
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
22 
49 12 
32 4 
39 11 
32 6 
34 9 
31 8 
46 25 
29 9 
23 6 
24 7 
24 8 
23 7 
19 4 
Italy +37 
+28 
+28 
+26 
+25 
+23 
+21 
+20 
+17 
+17 
+16 
+16 
+15 
+14 20 6 
South Korea 
Hungary 
US 
Poland 
Belgium 
Spain 
France 
Australia 
Great Britain 
Sweden 
Canada 
Japan 
Germany 
AVG. 
% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL 
Q. Out of every 100 
people of working age 
about how many do you 
think are unemployed 
and looking for work? 
Unemployment 
levels are 
hugely 
overestimated in 
every country
Q. Out of every 100 
Unemployment levels are 
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut 
labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco 
laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in 
voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
© Ipsos MORI 
hugely overestimated in 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
23 
0 
people of working age 
about how many do you 
think are unemployed 
and looking for work? 
every country 
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 
Average guess % 
% Unemployed and looking for work 
The dashed line is a 45 
degree line. Countries above 
the line have, on average, 
guessed too high while 
countries below have 
guessed too low
WHAT DO YOU THINK THE LIFE 
EXPECTANCY WILL BE OF A 
CHILD BORN IN 2014? 
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
24 
National 
Perceptions
© Ipsos MORI 
AVG. 
GUESS ACTUAL 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
25 
89 80 
83 80 
85 82 
85 82 
82 80 
81 80 
82 81 
82 82 
80 82 
78 80 
81 84 
78 82 
72 77 
68 75 
Q. What do you think 
the life expectancy will 
be of a child born in 
2014? 
+9 
DIFFERENCE IN YEARS TOO LOW TOO HIGH 
+3 
+3 
+3 
+2 
+1 
+1 
-2 
-2 
-3 
-4 
-5 
-7 
South Korea 
Great Britain 
France 
Sweden 
Germany 
Belgium 
Spain 
Australia 
Canada 
US 
Japan 
Italy 
Poland 
Hungary 
People in most 
countries have 
a fairly 
accurate 
picture of life 
expectancy
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut 
labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco 
laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in 
voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. 
90 
88 
86 
84 
82 
80 
78 
76 
74 
72 
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
26 
70 
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 
Average guess % 
Average life expectancy 
Q. What do you think 
the life expectancy will 
be of a child born in 
2014? 
People in most 
countries have a fairly 
accurate picture of life 
expectancy 
The dashed line is a 45 
degree line. Countries above 
the line have, on average, 
guessed too high while 
countries below have 
guessed too low
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
27 
Looking across all questions, 
we have calculated a 
measure of how accurate 
the population of each 
country is. 
This gives us our 
“Index of Ignorance”
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
28 
Italy 
US 
South Korea 
Poland 
Hungary 
France 
Canada 
Belgium 
Australia 
Great Britain 
Spain 
Japan 
Germany 
Sweden 
1st 
2nd 
3rd 
4th 
5th 
6th 
7th 
8th 
9th 
10th 
11th 
12th 
13th 
14th 
7th 
2nd 
10th 
6th 
11th 
8th 
14th 
1st 
13th 
4th 
3rd 
12th 
9th 
5th 
INDEX OF 
IGNORANCE 
Sweden 
Germany 
Japan 
Spain 
GB 
US 
Poland 
Hungary 
Italy 
South Korea 
Belgium 
France 
Canada 
Australia 
(Least accurate at top)
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
29 
National 
PerceptionsPERILS OF 
PERCEPTION IN 
BRITAIN
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
30 
3 5 7 
13 
17 
59 
66 
80 
16 
21 
24 24 
37 39 
49 
83 
% 
15-19 girls that 
gave birth 
% 
Muslim 
% 
Unemployed 
% 
Immigrants 
% 
Over 65 
% 
Christian 
% 
Voted 
Life 
expectancy 
PERILS OF 
PERCEPTION 
IN 
BRITAIN 
The British public are often very 
wrong about the basic make-up of 
their population and the scale of key 
social issues such as unemployment 
and behaviours like voting. 
Actual Average guess
IMMIGRATION 
Respondents who thought immigration was 
more than double the actual figure said the 
main reason they over-estimated is because 
they believe illegal immigrants enter the 
country without being counted. 
© Ipsos MORI 
People come into the country illegally so 
60% aren’t counted 
I still think the proportion is 
49% 
much higher 
46% 
33% 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
21% 
11% 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
31 
4% 
3% 
1% 
19% 
39% 
What I see in my local area 
What I see when I visit other towns/cities 
I was just guessing 
Information seen on TV 
Information seen in 
newspapers 
The experiences of friends and family 
Other 
I misunderstood the question 
Don’t know 
% who thought 
immigration is 
26% or more 
According to official statistics the percentage of the 
British population that was born in another country is 
actually 13%. Why do you think the percentage is 
much higher? 
41% 
Base: Asked of all who said 26%+
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
32 
CRIME 
Please tell me whether you think the following statement is 
true or false: The murder rate is rising in Britain 
25% 
49% 
26% 
60% 
50% 
40% 
30% 
20% 
10% 
% 
TRUE FALSE (Correct) Don't Know 
A quarter of the 
British public think 
the murder rate is 
rising – but half 
(correctly) say it is 
falling. More 
people get this 
correct in Britain 
than any other 
country
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
33 
• This study is based on a survey run on 
Ipsos Global @dvisor, between 12-26 
August 2014 
• Global @dvisor is conducted monthly in 
24 countries around the world via the 
Ipsos Online Panel. 
• For this study, 14 countries with high 
internet penetration were included: 
Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Great 
Britain, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, 
Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and 
the US. 
• The research is based on an international 
sample of 11,527 adults aged 18-64 in 
the US and Canada, and aged 16-64 in 
all other countries. Sample size is 
approximately 1,000 per country, with the 
exception of Belgium, Hungary, Poland, 
South Korea and Sweden where each 
have a sample of approximately 500 
• Data are weighted to ensure that the 
sample's composition reflects that of the 
adult population according to the most 
recent Census data in each country 
• The “point difference” figures that show 
differences between the “actual” and 
“average guesses” may not match a 
straight subtraction. This is due to 
rounding, as the calculation is conducted 
using decimal places
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
34 © Ipsos MORI 
© Ipsos MORI 
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 
For more information, please contact: 
Bobby Duffy, Global Director Ipsos Social Research Institute 
bobby.duffy@ipsos.com 
@BobbyIpsosMORI

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Perils of Perception - Global

  • 1. © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 1 Perils of Perception A FOURTEEN COUNTRY STUDY
  • 2. © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 2 These are the findings from our 14 country study looking at how accurate – or inaccurate – people are when asked to estimate basic facts about their population or social issues. It shows how wrong we often are: Perceptions are not reality…
  • 3. © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 3 IN YOUR OPINION WHAT PERCENTAGE OF GIRLS AGED BETWEEN 15 AND 19 GIVE BIRTH EACH YEAR?
  • 4. © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 4 24 3 18 1 17 0.5 16 2 15 1 16 3 15 2 14 0.4 14 0.2 14 1 12 0.6 11 0.7 11 0.5 8 0.7 +21 +17 +17 +14 +14 +14 +14 +14 +13 +13 +12 +11 +10 +7 US Poland Italy Hungary Canada Great Britain Australia Germany South Korea Spain France Belgium Japan Sweden AVG. % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL Q. In your opinion what percentage of girls aged between 15 and 19 give birth each year? People across the world hugely overestimate the proportion of teenagers who give birth each year.
  • 5. 25 20 15 10 5 © Ipsos MORI People across the world hugely overestimate the proportion of teenagers who give birth each The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 5 Average guess % year. Q. In your opinion what percentage of girls aged between 15 and 19 give birth each year? % Girls aged between 16 and 19 years that give birth each year 0 0 1 2 3 4
  • 6. © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 6 WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION DO YOU THINK ARE IMMIGRANTS TO THIS COUNTRY?
  • 7. © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 7 30 7 32 13 29 10 28 10 16 2 35 21 14 1.75 24 13 23 12 23 13 10 2 10 2 23 16 35 28 +23 +19 +19 +18 +14 +14 +12 +11 +11 +10 +8 +8 +7 +7 Italy US Belgium France Hungary Canada Poland Great Britain Spain Germany Japan South Korea Sweden Australia AVG. % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL Q. What percentage of the population do you think are immigrants to this country? All countries overestimate their level of immigration
  • 8. 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 © Ipsos MORI overestimate their level of immigration The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 8 Average guess % Q. What percentage of the population do you think are immigrants to All countries % Immigrants to this country 0 this country? 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
  • 9. © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 9 OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE MUSLIM?
  • 10. © Ipsos MORI AVG. GUESS ACTUAL Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 10 31 8 29 6 20 2 18 2 21 5 20 4 15 1 16 2 19 6 17 5 7 0.1 5 0.4 5 0.1 4 0.1 +23 +23 +18 +16 +16 +16 +14 +14 +13 % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH +12 +7 +5 +5 +4 France Belgium Canada Australia Great Britain Italy US Spain Germany Sweden Hungary South Korea Poland Japan Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are Muslim? People in a number of countries massively overestimate the proportion of Muslims
  • 11. Q. Out of every 100 People in a number of countries massively Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 © Ipsos MORI overestimate the proportion The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 11 Average guess % of Muslims % Muslims 0 people how many do you think are Muslim? 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
  • 12. OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE CHRISTIAN? © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 12 National Perceptions
  • 13. © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 13 +13 +10 +9 -14 -14 -15 -15 -16 -18 -19 -20 -21 -22 South Korea Japan Hungary Germany Italy France Spain Poland Australia Belgium Sweden Great Britain Canada US 42 29 12 2 62 53 58 58 69 83 49 63 62 77 79 94 45 61 46 64 48 67 39 59 49 69 56 78 % POINT DIFFERENCE AVG. TOO LOW TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are Christian? In contrast to the Muslim question, majority-Christian countries tend to underestimate how many people count themselves as Christian.
  • 14. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 14 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Average guess % % Christians Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are Christian? In contrast to the Muslim question, majority-Christian countries tend to underestimate how many people count themselves as Christian. The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low
  • 15. OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE OVER 65? © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 15 National Perceptions
  • 16. © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 16 48 21 42 15 39 14 43 18 37 14 36 14 40 18 41 19 38 18 37 17 40 21 41 25 32 16 33 19 +27 +27 +25 +25 +23 +22 +22 +22 +20 +20 +19 +16 +16 +14 Italy Poland Canada Spain Australia US Hungary Belgium France Great Britain Germany Japan South Korea Sweden AVG. % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are over 65? All countries hugely overestimate the proportion of their population aged 65+
  • 17. Q. Out of every 100 All countries hugely Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 © Ipsos MORI overestimate the proportion of their population aged 65+ The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 17 Average guess % % Over 65 0 people how many do you think are over 65? 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
  • 18. OUT OF EVERY 100 ELIGIBLE VOTERS ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK VOTED IN THE LAST ELECTION? © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 18 National Perceptions
  • 19. © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 19 57 80 54 75 49 66 47 64 60 76 43 59 55 69 58 72 72 85 51 61 84 93 42 49 85 89 % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO LOW -4 -1 57 58 -7 -10 -9 -17 -17 -16 -14 -14 -13 -16 -23 -21 AVG. GUESS ACTUAL France Italy Great Britain Hungary South Korea Japan Spain Germany Sweden Canada Australia Poland Belgium US Q. Out of every 100 eligible voters how many do you think voted in the last election? All countries underestimate the proportion of the population that voted in the last major national election
  • 20. Q. Out of every 100 eligible voters how All countries underestimate the proportion of the Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 © Ipsos MORI population that voted in the last major national election Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 20 Average guess % many do you think % Voted in last election 0 voted in the last election? The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
  • 21. OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE UNEMPLOYED AND LOOKING FOR WORK? © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 21 National Perceptions
  • 22. © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 22 49 12 32 4 39 11 32 6 34 9 31 8 46 25 29 9 23 6 24 7 24 8 23 7 19 4 Italy +37 +28 +28 +26 +25 +23 +21 +20 +17 +17 +16 +16 +15 +14 20 6 South Korea Hungary US Poland Belgium Spain France Australia Great Britain Sweden Canada Japan Germany AVG. % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL Q. Out of every 100 people of working age about how many do you think are unemployed and looking for work? Unemployment levels are hugely overestimated in every country
  • 23. Q. Out of every 100 Unemployment levels are Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. 50 40 30 20 10 © Ipsos MORI hugely overestimated in Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 23 0 people of working age about how many do you think are unemployed and looking for work? every country 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Average guess % % Unemployed and looking for work The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low
  • 24. WHAT DO YOU THINK THE LIFE EXPECTANCY WILL BE OF A CHILD BORN IN 2014? © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 24 National Perceptions
  • 25. © Ipsos MORI AVG. GUESS ACTUAL Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 25 89 80 83 80 85 82 85 82 82 80 81 80 82 81 82 82 80 82 78 80 81 84 78 82 72 77 68 75 Q. What do you think the life expectancy will be of a child born in 2014? +9 DIFFERENCE IN YEARS TOO LOW TOO HIGH +3 +3 +3 +2 +1 +1 -2 -2 -3 -4 -5 -7 South Korea Great Britain France Sweden Germany Belgium Spain Australia Canada US Japan Italy Poland Hungary People in most countries have a fairly accurate picture of life expectancy
  • 26. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 26 70 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 Average guess % Average life expectancy Q. What do you think the life expectancy will be of a child born in 2014? People in most countries have a fairly accurate picture of life expectancy The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low
  • 27. © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 27 Looking across all questions, we have calculated a measure of how accurate the population of each country is. This gives us our “Index of Ignorance”
  • 28. © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 28 Italy US South Korea Poland Hungary France Canada Belgium Australia Great Britain Spain Japan Germany Sweden 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 7th 2nd 10th 6th 11th 8th 14th 1st 13th 4th 3rd 12th 9th 5th INDEX OF IGNORANCE Sweden Germany Japan Spain GB US Poland Hungary Italy South Korea Belgium France Canada Australia (Least accurate at top)
  • 29. © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 29 National PerceptionsPERILS OF PERCEPTION IN BRITAIN
  • 30. © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 30 3 5 7 13 17 59 66 80 16 21 24 24 37 39 49 83 % 15-19 girls that gave birth % Muslim % Unemployed % Immigrants % Over 65 % Christian % Voted Life expectancy PERILS OF PERCEPTION IN BRITAIN The British public are often very wrong about the basic make-up of their population and the scale of key social issues such as unemployment and behaviours like voting. Actual Average guess
  • 31. IMMIGRATION Respondents who thought immigration was more than double the actual figure said the main reason they over-estimated is because they believe illegal immigrants enter the country without being counted. © Ipsos MORI People come into the country illegally so 60% aren’t counted I still think the proportion is 49% much higher 46% 33% Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 21% 11% PERILS OF PERCEPTION 31 4% 3% 1% 19% 39% What I see in my local area What I see when I visit other towns/cities I was just guessing Information seen on TV Information seen in newspapers The experiences of friends and family Other I misunderstood the question Don’t know % who thought immigration is 26% or more According to official statistics the percentage of the British population that was born in another country is actually 13%. Why do you think the percentage is much higher? 41% Base: Asked of all who said 26%+
  • 32. © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 32 CRIME Please tell me whether you think the following statement is true or false: The murder rate is rising in Britain 25% 49% 26% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % TRUE FALSE (Correct) Don't Know A quarter of the British public think the murder rate is rising – but half (correctly) say it is falling. More people get this correct in Britain than any other country
  • 33. © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 33 • This study is based on a survey run on Ipsos Global @dvisor, between 12-26 August 2014 • Global @dvisor is conducted monthly in 24 countries around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel. • For this study, 14 countries with high internet penetration were included: Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and the US. • The research is based on an international sample of 11,527 adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada, and aged 16-64 in all other countries. Sample size is approximately 1,000 per country, with the exception of Belgium, Hungary, Poland, South Korea and Sweden where each have a sample of approximately 500 • Data are weighted to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to the most recent Census data in each country • The “point difference” figures that show differences between the “actual” and “average guesses” may not match a straight subtraction. This is due to rounding, as the calculation is conducted using decimal places
  • 34. Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 34 © Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION For more information, please contact: Bobby Duffy, Global Director Ipsos Social Research Institute bobby.duffy@ipsos.com @BobbyIpsosMORI