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Office for National Statistics (ONS) Economic Forum: 20 July 2026

July’s Economic Forum showcased the latest economic and social developments from a wide range of analytical topics, including artificial intelligence in UK businesses and family spending in the UK.

Economy & Finance◦
Related topics:
AI in Business•
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20 July 2026 Welcome to the ONS Economic Forum Chair – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury Deputy Director Economic and Microdata Insights Office for National Statistics #ONSEconForum
Agenda 09:30 Welcome and introduction Sumit Dey-Chowdhury, Deputy Director, Economic and Microdata Insights, Office for National Statistics 09:35 State of the UK economy Amy Ditchfield, Office for National Statistics 09:50 AI in UK businesses Alexander Hewitt, Office for National Statistics 10:00 Family spending in the UK Lee Colvin, Office for National Statistics 10:10 Question and Answer 10:25 Closing remarks Sumit Dey-Chowdhury, Deputy Director, Economic and Microdata Insights, Office for National Statistics #ONSEconForum
State of the UK Economy Amy Ditchfield Head of Economic Analysis – Prices and GDP Office for National Statistics #ONSEconForum
Retail sales value–volume wedge highlights weak underlying demand Source: ONS Feb-20 Jun-20 O ct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 O ct-21 Feb-22 Jun-22 O ct-22 Feb-23 Jun-23 O ct-23 Feb-24 Jun-24 O ct-24 Feb-25 Jun-25 O ct-25 Feb-26 Jun-26 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 UK retail sales excluding automotive fuel, seasonally adjusted, Feb 2020 = 100 Value Volume Source: ONS M ay-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 O ct-25 N ov-25 D ec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 M ar-26 Apr-26 M ay-26 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Contributions to 3m/3m GDP growth, UK May 2025 to May 2026 Services Production Construction GDP %
UK PMI in modest contraction; uncertainty weighs on business M ay-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 O ct-25 N ov-25 D ec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 M ar-26 Apr-26 M ay-26 Jun-26 35 40 45 50 55 60 PMIs by industry June 2025 to June 2026 Construction Manufacturing Services Composite Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 Jun-26 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% UK business turnover challenges Competition Cost of labour Cost of materials Economic uncertainty Source: ONS BICS Source: S&P, ONS
Inflation eases along with expectations Source: ONS May-16 May-18 May-20 May-22 May-24 May-26 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Annual measures of headline and core consumer price index (CPI), UK, 2016 to 2026 Headline CPI Core CPI 15% trimmed CPI Median CPI % Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25 Jun-26 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Household inflation expectations 1-year and 5-years ahead 1-year ahead 5-year ahead % Source: Citigroup, Bank of England, YouGov, ONS
A weaker labour market continues to weigh on pay growth Feb-20 May-21 Aug-22 Nov-23 Feb-25 May-26 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 CPI vs Nominal AWE Feb 2020 = 100 CPI Nominal AWE Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 Dec-26 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Private sector regular wage growth and Bank of England projections AWE private sector regular pay Bank staff projection DMP expected pay Agent's pay survey % Source: ONS Source: Bank of England, ONS
Consumer confidence remains soft; household saving ratio declines Source: GfK, ONS Note: figures are for consumers looking ahead to the next 12 months 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 Consumer confidence, personal financial situation and general economic situation indicies Overall score Personal financial situation General economic situation 2000 Q1 2003 Q1 2006 Q1 2009 Q1 2012 Q1 2015 Q1 2018 Q1 2021 Q1 2024 Q1 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Household saving ratio, 2000 Q1 to 2026 Q1 Pension saving Non-pension saving Saving ratio Source: ONS
Oil prices have eased; household inflation shocks uneven 1/13/2025 7/13/2025 1/13/2026 7/13/2026 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Brent crude oil prices 2025 to 2026 Brent crude oil price US $ per barrel Food and non- alcoholic Beverages Electricity, gas and other fuels Alcoholic beverages and tobacco Motor fuels 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Household spending on selected categories by income decile, 2025 Decile 2 Decile 9 Source: ONS Parts per thousand Source: FRED, ONS Last updated 17th July 2026
UK public finances remain under pressure Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 UK cumulative public sector net borrowing FYE March 2025 and FYE March 2026 Borrowing - Cumulative 2025 to 2026 Borrowing - Cumulative 2026 to 2027 Borrowing - OBR forecast 2026 to 2027 £ billion Source: Bank of England, Fred, Bundesbank, ONS Last updated: 17th July 2026 % 7/17/2018 7/17/2020 7/17/2022 7/17/2024 7/17/2026 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 10 year bond yields UK Gilt US Treasury German Bund Source: ONS Note: excludes public sector banks
2026 economic outlook: GDP 1.0%, CPI 3.2% Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 2026 annual GDP growth forecast evolution % Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 CPI 2026 Q4 forecast evolution Source: HMT, ONS Source: HMT, ONS %
Summary • Retail sales value growth continues to outpace volumes, highlighting subdued consumer demand • Inflation and inflation expectations are easing, while a weaker labour market continues to weigh on private sector pay growth • The household saving ratio has declined from its peak and consumer confidence remains soft • The composite PMI has fallen into modest contraction, while UK firms report heightened economic uncertainty a turnover challenge • Gilt yields remain elevated and UK public finances under pressure
Artificial intelligence in UK businesses: 2023 to 2026 Alexander Hewitt Economist Office for National Statistics #ONSEconForum
Background • Growing AI use across UK businesses has raised interest in adoption patterns, business applications, barriers to uptake, and impacts on business activity and the labour market. • Measurement of AI is an evolving area in the UK and internationally. This analysis focuses on three questions: 1. How widespread is AI adoption among businesses? 2. How are businesses using AI in practice, and what impacts is AI beginning to have on business activity and the labour market? 3. What factors are preventing or delaying AI adoption, and how are businesses responding to AI skills needs?
Share of businesses reporting use of at least one artificial intelligence technology has almost tripled since late 2023 18 Septem ber 2023 to 1 O ctober 2023 11 Decem ber 2023 to 24 Decem ber 2023 18 M arch 2024 to 31 M arch 2024 17 June 2024 to 30 June 2024 16 Septem ber 2024 to 29 Septem ber 2024 16 Decem ber 2024 to 29 Decem ber 2024 17 M arch 2025 to 30 M arch 2025 16 June 2025 to 29 June 2025 15 Septem ber 2025 to 28 Septem ber 2025 15 Decem ber 2025 to 28 Decem ber 2025 16 M arch 2026 to 29 M arch 2026 15 June 2026 to 28 June 2026 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Percentage of businesses reporting AI use Percentage share (%) 18 Septem ber 2023 to 1 O ctober 2023 11 Decem ber 2023 to 24 Decem ber 2023 18 M arch 2024 to 31 M arch 2024 17 June 2024 to 30 June 2024 16 Septem ber 2024 to 29 Septem ber 2024 16 Decem ber 2024 to 29 Decem ber 2024 17 M arch 2025 to 30 M arch 2025 16 June 2025 to 29 June 2025 15 Septem ber 2025 to 28 Septem ber 2025 15 Decem ber 2025 to 28 Decem ber 2025 16 M arch 2026 to 29 M arch 2026 15 June 2026 to 28 June 2026 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 Average number of AI technologies used Number of technologies Source: Office for National Statistics – Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS), Wave 159, 5 June to 28 June 2026. Notes: Results include businesses with 10 or more employees. Source: Office for National Statistics – Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS), Wave 159, 5 June to 28 June 2026. Notes: Results include businesses with 10 or more employees.
Almost three-fifths of businesses in the information and communication industry report using AI Information and communic... Education Professional, scientific and... Arts, entertainment and rec... Administrative and support ... Real estate activities Other service activities Manufacturing Human health and social wo... Accommodation and food se... Wholesale and retail trade... Transportation and storage Construction 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Single use case Two or more use cases Percentage of businesses (%) Source: Office for National Statistics – Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS), Wave 159, 5 June to 28 June 2026.
Improving business operations is the most common use of AI but associated workforce impacts remain limited Improve business operations Provide, or personalise, products or services to customers Develop a new product or service Explore a new market 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 - 9 10 - 49 50 - 99 100 - 249 250 + Purpose of artificial intelligence use Percentage of businesses (%) No change Reduced headcount Increased headcount 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Uses AI to improve business operations Uses AI for other purposes only Reported impact on workforce headcount Percentage of businesses (%) Source: Office for National Statistics – Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS), Wave 159, 5 June to 28 June 2026. Source: Office for National Statistics – Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS), Wave 159, 5 June to 28 June 2026.
Over half of businesses report impacts on creative or design roles and administrative or clerical roles Administrative or clerical roles Creative or design roles Data analysis roles Information Technology roles 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Text generation using Large Language Models Visual content creation Data processing using machine learning Image processing using machine learning Business role Percentage of businesses (%) Source: Office for National Statistics – Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS), Wave 159, 5 June to 28 June 2026.
Among businesses citing a lack of AI expertise as a barrier, over three-fifths report training or retraining existing staff Business has not been prevented or expe... Level of expertise in artificial intelligence Cost Difficulty identifying business use cases Lack of trust in artificial intelligence ... Security concerns Employee concern about any potential im... Concerns about government regulations... Product or service availability 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 - 9 10 - 49 50 - 99 100 - 249 250 + Reporting barriers to adoption Percentage of businesses (%) Training or retraining existing staff Automating or replacing roles with artificial intelligence technologies Recruiting new staff with artificial intelligence related skills Outsourcing roles 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Cite lack of expertise as a barrier Report no barriers Approach to intergrating AI-related skills Percentage of businesses (%) Source: Office for National Statistics – Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS), Wave 159, 5 June to 28 June 2026. Source: Office for National Statistics – Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS), Wave 159, 5 June to 28 June 2026. Notes: Results include businesses with 10 or more employees.
Summary • AI adoption has gradually grown since September 2023 • AI use varies across industries • Improving operations is the most common AI use, but workforce impacts remain limited • Roles affected by AI vary depending on the type of AI technology being used • AI skills barriers are driving investment in training or re-training staff
Family Spending in the UK Lee Colvin Head of Household Income & Expenditure Analysis Household Resilience Division
Recently at ONS... Publications • Family Spending FYE 2025 • OSR Compliance Review of Family Spending Statistics • ONS surveys and economic statistics improvement plan quarterly progress update provided overview of Household Finance Recovery Plans Survey developments • Ongoing quality work to better align accredited household income and expenditure statistics Processes and methods • In FYE 2025, equivalisation was updated in Family Spending to use the modified OECD two-person reference household instead of a single- person approach
Looking ahead.. Survey developments • Implementation of OSR recommendations • Focus on delivery of 3-year quality recovery plan Processes • Continuing to improve production pipelines • Improving cross-cutting insights for household income and expenditure Statistical publications • Family Spending in the UK FYE 26, Spring 2027 • Aiming to bring closer to the 12-month target between data collection and publication, as recommended by OSR Stakeholder engagement • Stakeholder Engagement Strategy Published • Engagement mechanisms for income and expenditure under review
Office for Statistics Regulation Review • Compliance review of Family Spending statistics published 10 February 2026 • Recognised the challenges we face in our data collection in the Living Costs and Food Survey (the Family Spending data source) and acknowledged the range of interventions and developments we have in place • Conclusions: “While there have been growing issues around achieved sample size and timeliness, considering the positive user feedback, and the current and planned improvements to the survey, these statistics remain of sufficient value and quality to meet users’ needs.” • Confirmed Family Spending statistics continue to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics and can continue to be published as accredited official statistics. • Three recommendations made on variable continuity information, timeliness and quality reporting.
Family Spending in the UK: April 2024 to March 2025
Family Spending in the UK FYE 2025: Overview Highlights from ONS Family Spending publication FYE 2025 • What are households spending the most on? • How is expenditure changing across the distribution? • Compared with FYE 2023 how has the spending between the top and bottom fifth of households changed? Unless otherwise stated, both absolute and relative year-on-year changes in spending presented in this bulletin are adjusted for inflation and are presented in real terms. Achieved sample approximately 5000 households
After adjusting for inflation, average weekly household expenditure increased by 5% during FYE 2025 • Average weekly household expenditure increased to £676.60 in FYE 2025. • There was a nominal increase of £53.30 (9%) from FYE 2024. • After accounting for inflation there was a real-terms increase of £35.10 (5%). • Weekly household expenditure in FYE 2025 remained £75.60 (10%) per week lower than FYE 2020. Family Spending FYE 2025
After adjusting for inflation, household spending has increased across most expenditure categories in FYE 2025 The expenditure categories that saw the largest increases in FYE 2025 were: • Transport £8.10, (9%) • Recreation and culture £6.70, (9%) • Restaurant and hotels £2.80, (6%) • Housing (net), fuel and power £5.60, (5%) Family Spending FYE 2025
Housing (net), fuel and power, and transport continued to account for the highest household spending in FYE 2025 The categories had the largest share of total weekly expenditure in FYE 2025 were: • Housing (net), fuel and power 18%, (£118.40) • Transport 14%, (£96.40) • Recreation and culture 12%, (£82.10) • Food and non-alcoholic drinks 11%, (£73.70) Family Spending FYE 2025
The difference in real term weekly expenditure between the richest and poorest fifth of households has widened in FYE 2025 • Richest fifth spent £1,083.60 a week, 2.7× the poorest fifth (£407.30) in FYE 2025. • The difference in spending between the poorest and richest fifth reached its widest level since FYE 2021, increasing from 2.5× to 2.7×. • Richest spending rose £98.10 (10%), twice the poorest fifth’s £18.10 (5%) in FYE 2025. Family Spending FYE 2025
Poorer households spent proportionally more on housing (net), fuel and power than richer households in FYE 2025. Poorest fifth: • Housing (net), fuel and power - (£104.70, 25.7%) • Food and non-alcoholic drinks - (£61.80, 15.2%) • Transport - (£41.80, 10.3%) Richest fifth: • Other expenditure – (£178.80, 16.5%) • Transport - (£174.60, 16.1%) • Recreation and culture - (£145.10, 13.4%) Family Spending FYE 2025
How has spending patterns changed since FYE 2023? • In early 2021 UK inflation rates began increasing, as the global economy reopened from the COVID-19 pandemic; by October 2022 supply chain disruptions and surging energy costs pushed CPI and CPIH inflation rates to levels last seen over 40 years ago • Analysis for the FYE 2025 Family spending publication, showed that household spending patterns had changed since the FYE 2023. • Since the FYE 2023 inflation peak, spending shifted unevenly between the poorest and richest fifths.
Spending increased more for the richest fifth than the poorest fifth households across most expenditure categories since FYE 2023 •Poorest fifth: largest real-terms increases​ • Housing, fuel & power - £5.90 (6%)​ • Food & non-alcoholic drink - £3.20 (5%)​ • Recreation & culture - £6.20 (20%) •Richest fifth: largest real-terms increases​ • Transport - £46.20 (36%)​ • Recreation & culture - £26.20 (22%)​ • Misc. goods & services - £15.80 (24%) Family Spending FYE 2025
Thank you for your time. Contact details if you have any questions or queries: Family.spending@ons.gov.uk
Closing remarks Sumit Dey-Chowdhury Deputy Director Economic and Microdata Insights Office for National Statistics #ONSEconForum
ONS economic statistics: our latest progress update We published our third quarterly update alongside an accompanying blog on the improvement work underway in the ONS for surveys and economic statistics on the 15 July. The update reflects refined priorities, reset milestones and clarity about where activity must wait until constraints are resolved. Key progress includes: • Early data from the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS), following the implementation in April of the final elements of agreed design improvements, indicates improved response rates, particularly in later waves, and fewer partial returns. This sets the scene for an assessment that we will publish in August of our readiness to transition to the TLFS as the headline measure for labour market statistics in 2027. • The Statistical Business Register (SBR) has moved to a stronger, iterative delivery model, with early benefits already being deployed through enhanced search capability within the ONS. The new approach releases value to users earlier and allows us to gather feedback.
ONS economic statistics: our latest progress update – continued Key progress includes: • In National Accounts, the IMF has accredited UK statistics as meeting Special Data Dissemination Standard Plus – their highest tier internationally – strengthening the transparency and comparability of our financial statistics • Business Enterprise Research and Development statistics are now accredited by the Office for Statistics Regulation as official statistics. • We have published a broader information package on how we assess GDP for residual seasonality and completed the move of the remaining Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings to digital-first collection, reducing operational cost and risk, and speeding up data processing.
ONS Business Engagement Survey On the 17 July we published the findings from our recent business surveys consultation, which explored organisations’ experiences of completing ONS business surveys and identified opportunities to strengthen engagement and improve the support available to businesses. The feedback highlighted the importance of clear communications, responsive support and continued efforts to reduce the burden of survey completion, while also recognising positive progress in areas such as service improvements, survey modernisation and data quality. Alongside insight gathered through our regular engagement channels, these findings will help shape ongoing improvements through our Business Surveys Transformation Programme.
Upcoming ONS economic analysis • 20 July – AI in UK Businesses • 21 July – Labour Market Theme Day • 22 July – Prices Theme Day • 24 July – Retail sales, Great Britain: June 2026; UK trade in services by partner country: January to March 2026; UK trade, quarterly goods and services: January to March 2026; UK manufacturers' sales by product • 29 July – Workless households for regions across the UK: 2025 All information on upcoming analysis can be found via the ONS website
Upcoming events 22 July 2026 – Inflation day stakeholder briefing Please join us our stakeholder briefing session to coincide with the release of June’s inflation data. These 30-minute sessions will take place on the day of publication, giving you the chance to ask questions about the latest published data, seek clarification on any points, and explore anything you'd like to understand in more depth. To make the most of the time available, we ask that questions focus on the published data and findings rather than methodology. All our events can be found via eventbrite.co.uk/o/the-office-for-national-statistics-33407052803
Thank you for attending the ONS Economic Forum You can keep up to date on all upcoming events on our Eventbrite page. If you have any feedback please email economic.engagement@ons.gov.uk