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Futurism: Resetting Assumptions for 2030
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
Ofcom Spectrum Forum, 8th February 2017
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
Image Credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley unless stated
Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis
 Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991
 Futurism, Forecasting, Anti-Forecasting, Policy
 Cross-silo, contrarian, independent
 Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
Network Tech, Policy
& Business Models
Communications
Apps & Services
Telecom-Futurism
Consumer & social trends forward to 2030….
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
Futurist narratives applied to networks assume too much
IoT = connected everything! Robots, cities, self-driving
cars, homes, wearables, factories, AR/VR, drones
Data traffic exponential. Single standard, more
capacity, managed QoS, NFV & ultra-low latency
Faster/denser connectivity services, inclusion, more
subscribers, some wholesale relationships & sharing
Govt wins big license fees, efficient market from peers
competing, economy benefits from IoT-led productivity
Therefore, lots more mobile spectrum needed, in
conveniently-large slices, primarily for national MNOs
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
Assumptions
Assumptions
Changing our assumptions & semantics for 2030
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
Services Capabilities
Competition Substitution
Harmonisation Diversity
Managed Intelligent
Ubiquitous Tailored
What is a service provider?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
MNO
MVNO
TowerCo
WISP
Roaming
Car-SP
Private MNO
PS-Org
SliceNO
eSIM SP
Fixed telco
Cable MSO
Biz. MSP
AltNet
Fix-Wireless
Wholesale
FibreCo
SD-WAN
Sec-aaS
Community
Mobile Fixed
Broadcast
Satellite
ISP/Hosting
VenueSP
cPaaS
IndustrySP
CDN
Call Ctr
SaaS
IoT-SP
Other
What is a “service”?
Subscription basis?
Service vs. feature?
Substitution risks?
Infrastructure?
Boundary with software?
Uncertainties
What will the word “service” mean in 2030?
“Service” ITU Definition : “A set of functions offered to a user by an organisation”
This definition seems to exclude:
 A set of functions owned & self-provisioned by a user
 A set of functions offered to a developer by an organisation
 A set of functions embedded in a 3rd-party product or other non-radio service
 A set of functions made available as a public amenity
 A set of functions owned & consumed by an autonomous organisation
 A set of functions enshrined as a human right
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
Wireless “service providers” of the future?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
Many ways to solve any problem: arbitrage is everywhere
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
The same is true for connectivity options:
Substitution parallels competition
Pervasive AI will deeply impact network demand & supply
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
Least-cost
routing
Energy
Management
Quasi-QoS
Multiple
variables
Autonomous
& Offline
Path
Optimisation
Capacity
Planning
IoT data
management
IIoT & Industry 4.0 has many domain-specific requirements
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
“National” policies & licenses may not always work
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
Power station
Car factory
Airport
Oil refinery
Port
Offshore
windfarm
Shared Spectrum rules could enable private, regional industrial-grade 5G/WiFi
networks for IoT & Industry 4.0 (Perhaps with a blockchain register?)
Monocultures: Harmonisation brings efficiency… and risks
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
Can “one size fit all”?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
Multiple platforms & ecosystem diversity adds resilience
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
image: www.freeimages.co.uk
What might 2030 mean for spectrum policy?
 IoT, software & mobile continues to change everything
 Revisit the definition of “services” & SPs
 Wireless connectivity ownership gets democratised
 Substitution = Functional Competition
 Industrial IoT will bring many unique requirements
 Consider mechanisms for geo-fenced licencing
 Many tech pathways for any “outcome”
 AI will have profound & unexpected impacts
 Question network “monoculture” vs “diversity”
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
www.deanbubley.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
information@disruptive-analysis.com
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017

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Ofcom Future Wireless World + Spectrum - Dean Bubley

  • 1. Futurism: Resetting Assumptions for 2030 Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis Ofcom Spectrum Forum, 8th February 2017 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean Image Credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley unless stated
  • 2. Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis  Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991  Futurism, Forecasting, Anti-Forecasting, Policy  Cross-silo, contrarian, independent  Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017 Network Tech, Policy & Business Models Communications Apps & Services Telecom-Futurism
  • 3. Consumer & social trends forward to 2030…. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
  • 4. Futurist narratives applied to networks assume too much IoT = connected everything! Robots, cities, self-driving cars, homes, wearables, factories, AR/VR, drones Data traffic exponential. Single standard, more capacity, managed QoS, NFV & ultra-low latency Faster/denser connectivity services, inclusion, more subscribers, some wholesale relationships & sharing Govt wins big license fees, efficient market from peers competing, economy benefits from IoT-led productivity Therefore, lots more mobile spectrum needed, in conveniently-large slices, primarily for national MNOs Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017 Assumptions Assumptions
  • 5. Changing our assumptions & semantics for 2030 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017 Services Capabilities Competition Substitution Harmonisation Diversity Managed Intelligent Ubiquitous Tailored
  • 6. What is a service provider? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017 MNO MVNO TowerCo WISP Roaming Car-SP Private MNO PS-Org SliceNO eSIM SP Fixed telco Cable MSO Biz. MSP AltNet Fix-Wireless Wholesale FibreCo SD-WAN Sec-aaS Community Mobile Fixed Broadcast Satellite ISP/Hosting VenueSP cPaaS IndustrySP CDN Call Ctr SaaS IoT-SP Other What is a “service”? Subscription basis? Service vs. feature? Substitution risks? Infrastructure? Boundary with software? Uncertainties
  • 7. What will the word “service” mean in 2030? “Service” ITU Definition : “A set of functions offered to a user by an organisation” This definition seems to exclude:  A set of functions owned & self-provisioned by a user  A set of functions offered to a developer by an organisation  A set of functions embedded in a 3rd-party product or other non-radio service  A set of functions made available as a public amenity  A set of functions owned & consumed by an autonomous organisation  A set of functions enshrined as a human right Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
  • 8. Wireless “service providers” of the future? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
  • 9. Many ways to solve any problem: arbitrage is everywhere Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017 The same is true for connectivity options: Substitution parallels competition
  • 10. Pervasive AI will deeply impact network demand & supply Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017 Least-cost routing Energy Management Quasi-QoS Multiple variables Autonomous & Offline Path Optimisation Capacity Planning IoT data management
  • 11. IIoT & Industry 4.0 has many domain-specific requirements Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
  • 12. “National” policies & licenses may not always work Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017 Power station Car factory Airport Oil refinery Port Offshore windfarm Shared Spectrum rules could enable private, regional industrial-grade 5G/WiFi networks for IoT & Industry 4.0 (Perhaps with a blockchain register?)
  • 13. Monocultures: Harmonisation brings efficiency… and risks Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
  • 14. Can “one size fit all”? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
  • 15. Multiple platforms & ecosystem diversity adds resilience Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017 image: www.freeimages.co.uk
  • 16. What might 2030 mean for spectrum policy?  IoT, software & mobile continues to change everything  Revisit the definition of “services” & SPs  Wireless connectivity ownership gets democratised  Substitution = Functional Competition  Industrial IoT will bring many unique requirements  Consider mechanisms for geo-fenced licencing  Many tech pathways for any “outcome”  AI will have profound & unexpected impacts  Question network “monoculture” vs “diversity” Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017