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TIBAR BAY PORT
PROJECT MANAGEMENT UNIT
O desenvolvimento do Porto de Tibar
Lisboa
11 Setembro 2017
Presentation Outline
Economic Environment of Timor-Leste
Development of new port
Traffic forecast
The Tibar Bay Port
Value Proposition of Tibar Bay Port
Environmental and Social Impact
2
Economic Environment
of Timor-Leste
3
Real non-oil GDP, 2011-2015
 Real non-oil GDP growth has averaged at 5% a year between 2010
and 2015.
 The slight dip in 2013 was largely a result of a decrease in
Government capital expenditure associated with the phasing down
of the electricity project.
7.9%
5.0%
2.7%
4.3% 4.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
1,250
1,300
1,350
1,400
1,450
1,500
1,550
1,600
1,650
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Non-oil GDP ($m) Non-oil GDP growth (%)
4
Real non-oil GDP forecasts, 2016-19
2016 2017 2018 2019
Real Non-oil
GDP Growth
projections
5.4% 3.9% 6.0% 6.5%
 Source: Projections taken from Budget Book 1 2017;
 Revised projections will be published in Budget Book 1 2018
5
The Frontloading Strategy
 The Government’s frontloading strategy uses loan financing and excess
withdrawals from the Petroleum Fund to finance high quality
investment in infrastructure and human capital development.
 The Government’s high return investments will provide the necessary
foundations for long-term sustainable private sector led development.
 Stimulate economic growth, leading to higher domestic revenues and
reduced Government spending in the long-term.
 Allows the Government to significantly upgrade road and electricity
coverage throughout Timor-Leste, which improve both living standards and
the business environment.
 Successfully attract a number of high profile private sector investors
including Heineken, Bolloré, TL Cement and Pelican Paradise.
6
Inflation is low and stable in Timor-Leste
0.8%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Food and Non Alcholic Beverages Core inflation Timor-Leste
7
 Inflation fell below the Government’s 4%-6% target range since
January 2014
 Timor is now experiencing positive but low and stable inflation
Timor-Leste is fortunate to count on a
considerable resource base - The Petroleum
Fund
 Source: Petroleum Fund of Timor-Leste
8
Balance
$16.6 bn
As at 31 July 2017
Petroleum revenues
$21.2 bn
2005 – July 2017
Return since inception
4.3% p.a.
As at 31 July 2017
 Established in 2005
 Owner: Ministry of Finance
 Ops Manager: BCTL (Banco Central)
 Market value: US$ 16.6 bn, equivalent to
14 times non-oil GDP
 Substantive transparency requirements
16,598
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q2
2017
USDMillion
Market Value of Petroleum Fund
And revenues from the oil and gas industry
are expected to increase
theguardian
Australia and Timor-Leste strike deal on
maritime boundary dispute
Agreement with East Timor clarifies legal status of Greater Sunrise gas field and
establishes regime to develop and share resource, after long dispute
The former president of Timor-Leste Xanana Gusmao described the maritime
boundary agreement as ‘historic’.
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
9
… but social needs will keep expanding,
too.
 Total Resident Population of Timor-Leste, projections 2010-2050
10
…so strategic planning is
essential.
Strategic Development Plan 2011-2030:
“The strategies and actions set out in the SDP aim to transition Timor-Leste from a low income
to upper middle income country, with a healthy, well educated and safe population by 2030.”
“A central pillar of the SDP is the building and maintenance of core and productive
infrastructure. While good national infrastructure is essential to Timor-Leste being able to develop
economically and socially, the scale and cost of addressing this challenge is large and ongoing.”
“STRATEGY AND ACTIONS
Timor-Leste will establish new sea ports at Tibar on the north
coast and Suai on the south coast to support our growing
economy and meet future industry and freight demands.”
11
New Port Development
12
The need for a new Port in Timor-Leste
 Dili port is the only international seaport in Timor-Leste and it is a city
port with no expansion possibilities;
 Harbour limitations, especially draught restrictions;
 No available land to extend the port, road congestion within Dili and a
poor entry road intersection into the port;
 Economic and population growth forecasts are expected to drive
cargo from around 50,000 TEU (2015) to over 800,000 TEU by 2045;
 Dili port is expected to reach full capacity by 2020; and
 The cost of doing nothing is forecasted to reach around US$ 65Mn in
2021, US$ 88Mn in 2030 and over US$170m per year by 2044.
13
Profile of existing Dili Port
Management APORTIL (the Port Authority)
Location Dili, Timor-Leste
Berth 289 m
Depth from – 5.5 m to - 7.5 m
Equipment
No Cargo Handling specific Equipment;
Only Mobile Cranes and Reach Stackers
Cargo Multifunction Port with cargo mixed with passengers
14
Dili Port15
16
Map of Timor-Leste and Tibar Bay
DiliTibar
Tibar Bay
Tibar is only 10 Km from Dili, the capital of
Timor-Leste
Government of Timor-Leste (GoTL)
Objectives for Tibar Bay Port
 Create required port facilities to cope with expected traffic
increase;
 Accommodate larger vessels to realize economies of scale in sea
transport;
 Move all cargo handling operations from Dili port;
 Improve the national economy by building stronger sea links;
 Improve the level of services and increase efficiency of the seaport;
and
 Gain from the experience of an international container port
operator.
17
Traffic Forecast
18
19
19 What will be the container traffic?
20
 Vehicles: Import will strongly increase with per capita income.
 Cement: Strong import growth from construction projects and private housing schemes.
 Other break bulk cargo: Only moderate growth
What will be the non-containerized cargo
volumes?20
The Tibar Bay Port
21
22 Tibar Bay Port
Grantor Government of Timor-Leste
Concessionaire Timor Port S.A (Bolloré group)
Concession Period 30 years
Concession Model
DBFOT(Design, Build, Finance,
Operate & Transfer)
Investment 1st
Phase
Public / Private
Construction starts Dec-17
Design Vessel 7.000 TEU
Port Capacity 1.000.000 TEU (final phase)
~ 280 million Usd
~ 130 million Usd / ~ 150 million Usd
First ever Public-Private Partnership (PPP) in the country
Tibar Bay Port Project – Main Characteristic
The project includes the design and
construction of the following
infrastructures:
• A two berths quay of 630m length
• A 27 ha container terminal with
buildings and utilities
• Dredging of the quay berths, turning
circle and channel
Concessionaire proposed plan:
• Phase 1A: delivery of one berth 325m
long and 13 ha of yard facilities (end
2019). Opening of the terminal for
operations.
• Phase 1B: delivery of the second berth
305m and 6 ha of yard area (end 2020).
• Phase 2: progressive delivery of the
remaining yard area, according to traffic
level.
23
Tibar Bay Port Video
24
Value Proposition of Tibar
Bay Port
25
 Economically efficient
 Allow urban redevelopment
 Sustainable Social development
 Driving multiple industries:
 Manufacturing
 Mining
 Production
26 Ports
27 What the Country gets
 Foreign Direct Investment worth around US$350m over the life of the concession
(~75% of project Capex);
 Public funds can be used for other sectors like health and education;
 Avoiding cost of delays and diversion of cargo;
 Bigger ships - Savings on freight costs due to economies of scale;
 Development of Tibar Industrial Park around the Port;
 Redevelopment of Dili Port ;
 Better quality of life in Dili city centre; and
 Possibility of transhipment (new revenue-generating activity in Timor-Leste).
28 What the Government gets
A royalty fee per container / tonne of cargo;
Navigation / dockage fees per ship;
Tax income;
A port worth an estimated US$166m at the end of the 30 years
plus
Cost control during the 30 years of the concession
(Government only pays the VGF upfront - no additional Capex, no
Opex, no maintenance costs).
VGF = Viability Gap Funding – Government contribution
29 Tibar Bay Port
 It is the gateway to Timor-Leste;
 It is the only deep seawater port in the country;
 State of the art Infrastructure and up to date
Equipment;
 A worldwide Port Operator.
Environmental
and Social Impact
30
Because We care!
Approach on Environmental and Social
Impact
 Designed, built and operated as per high International
Standards (including IFC Performances Standards).
 Government has completed Resettlement and Livelihood
Action Plans and has compensated affected community.
 Concessionaire has carried out Environmental Impact
Assessment and mitigation measures based on a high
standard level.
 As part of the mitigation plan, Biodiversity Action Plan will also
be implemented by the Concessionaire.
31
Obrigadu
Barak
32
We Know About Dealing With Growth!

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O desenvolvimento do Porto de Tibar

  • 1. TIBAR BAY PORT PROJECT MANAGEMENT UNIT O desenvolvimento do Porto de Tibar Lisboa 11 Setembro 2017
  • 2. Presentation Outline Economic Environment of Timor-Leste Development of new port Traffic forecast The Tibar Bay Port Value Proposition of Tibar Bay Port Environmental and Social Impact 2
  • 4. Real non-oil GDP, 2011-2015  Real non-oil GDP growth has averaged at 5% a year between 2010 and 2015.  The slight dip in 2013 was largely a result of a decrease in Government capital expenditure associated with the phasing down of the electricity project. 7.9% 5.0% 2.7% 4.3% 4.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 1,250 1,300 1,350 1,400 1,450 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,650 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Non-oil GDP ($m) Non-oil GDP growth (%) 4
  • 5. Real non-oil GDP forecasts, 2016-19 2016 2017 2018 2019 Real Non-oil GDP Growth projections 5.4% 3.9% 6.0% 6.5%  Source: Projections taken from Budget Book 1 2017;  Revised projections will be published in Budget Book 1 2018 5
  • 6. The Frontloading Strategy  The Government’s frontloading strategy uses loan financing and excess withdrawals from the Petroleum Fund to finance high quality investment in infrastructure and human capital development.  The Government’s high return investments will provide the necessary foundations for long-term sustainable private sector led development.  Stimulate economic growth, leading to higher domestic revenues and reduced Government spending in the long-term.  Allows the Government to significantly upgrade road and electricity coverage throughout Timor-Leste, which improve both living standards and the business environment.  Successfully attract a number of high profile private sector investors including Heineken, Bolloré, TL Cement and Pelican Paradise. 6
  • 7. Inflation is low and stable in Timor-Leste 0.8% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Food and Non Alcholic Beverages Core inflation Timor-Leste 7  Inflation fell below the Government’s 4%-6% target range since January 2014  Timor is now experiencing positive but low and stable inflation
  • 8. Timor-Leste is fortunate to count on a considerable resource base - The Petroleum Fund  Source: Petroleum Fund of Timor-Leste 8 Balance $16.6 bn As at 31 July 2017 Petroleum revenues $21.2 bn 2005 – July 2017 Return since inception 4.3% p.a. As at 31 July 2017  Established in 2005  Owner: Ministry of Finance  Ops Manager: BCTL (Banco Central)  Market value: US$ 16.6 bn, equivalent to 14 times non-oil GDP  Substantive transparency requirements 16,598 - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q2 2017 USDMillion Market Value of Petroleum Fund
  • 9. And revenues from the oil and gas industry are expected to increase theguardian Australia and Timor-Leste strike deal on maritime boundary dispute Agreement with East Timor clarifies legal status of Greater Sunrise gas field and establishes regime to develop and share resource, after long dispute The former president of Timor-Leste Xanana Gusmao described the maritime boundary agreement as ‘historic’. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images 9
  • 10. … but social needs will keep expanding, too.  Total Resident Population of Timor-Leste, projections 2010-2050 10
  • 11. …so strategic planning is essential. Strategic Development Plan 2011-2030: “The strategies and actions set out in the SDP aim to transition Timor-Leste from a low income to upper middle income country, with a healthy, well educated and safe population by 2030.” “A central pillar of the SDP is the building and maintenance of core and productive infrastructure. While good national infrastructure is essential to Timor-Leste being able to develop economically and socially, the scale and cost of addressing this challenge is large and ongoing.” “STRATEGY AND ACTIONS Timor-Leste will establish new sea ports at Tibar on the north coast and Suai on the south coast to support our growing economy and meet future industry and freight demands.” 11
  • 13. The need for a new Port in Timor-Leste  Dili port is the only international seaport in Timor-Leste and it is a city port with no expansion possibilities;  Harbour limitations, especially draught restrictions;  No available land to extend the port, road congestion within Dili and a poor entry road intersection into the port;  Economic and population growth forecasts are expected to drive cargo from around 50,000 TEU (2015) to over 800,000 TEU by 2045;  Dili port is expected to reach full capacity by 2020; and  The cost of doing nothing is forecasted to reach around US$ 65Mn in 2021, US$ 88Mn in 2030 and over US$170m per year by 2044. 13
  • 14. Profile of existing Dili Port Management APORTIL (the Port Authority) Location Dili, Timor-Leste Berth 289 m Depth from – 5.5 m to - 7.5 m Equipment No Cargo Handling specific Equipment; Only Mobile Cranes and Reach Stackers Cargo Multifunction Port with cargo mixed with passengers 14
  • 16. 16 Map of Timor-Leste and Tibar Bay DiliTibar Tibar Bay Tibar is only 10 Km from Dili, the capital of Timor-Leste
  • 17. Government of Timor-Leste (GoTL) Objectives for Tibar Bay Port  Create required port facilities to cope with expected traffic increase;  Accommodate larger vessels to realize economies of scale in sea transport;  Move all cargo handling operations from Dili port;  Improve the national economy by building stronger sea links;  Improve the level of services and increase efficiency of the seaport; and  Gain from the experience of an international container port operator. 17
  • 19. 19 19 What will be the container traffic?
  • 20. 20  Vehicles: Import will strongly increase with per capita income.  Cement: Strong import growth from construction projects and private housing schemes.  Other break bulk cargo: Only moderate growth What will be the non-containerized cargo volumes?20
  • 21. The Tibar Bay Port 21
  • 22. 22 Tibar Bay Port Grantor Government of Timor-Leste Concessionaire Timor Port S.A (Bolloré group) Concession Period 30 years Concession Model DBFOT(Design, Build, Finance, Operate & Transfer) Investment 1st Phase Public / Private Construction starts Dec-17 Design Vessel 7.000 TEU Port Capacity 1.000.000 TEU (final phase) ~ 280 million Usd ~ 130 million Usd / ~ 150 million Usd First ever Public-Private Partnership (PPP) in the country
  • 23. Tibar Bay Port Project – Main Characteristic The project includes the design and construction of the following infrastructures: • A two berths quay of 630m length • A 27 ha container terminal with buildings and utilities • Dredging of the quay berths, turning circle and channel Concessionaire proposed plan: • Phase 1A: delivery of one berth 325m long and 13 ha of yard facilities (end 2019). Opening of the terminal for operations. • Phase 1B: delivery of the second berth 305m and 6 ha of yard area (end 2020). • Phase 2: progressive delivery of the remaining yard area, according to traffic level. 23
  • 24. Tibar Bay Port Video 24
  • 25. Value Proposition of Tibar Bay Port 25
  • 26.  Economically efficient  Allow urban redevelopment  Sustainable Social development  Driving multiple industries:  Manufacturing  Mining  Production 26 Ports
  • 27. 27 What the Country gets  Foreign Direct Investment worth around US$350m over the life of the concession (~75% of project Capex);  Public funds can be used for other sectors like health and education;  Avoiding cost of delays and diversion of cargo;  Bigger ships - Savings on freight costs due to economies of scale;  Development of Tibar Industrial Park around the Port;  Redevelopment of Dili Port ;  Better quality of life in Dili city centre; and  Possibility of transhipment (new revenue-generating activity in Timor-Leste).
  • 28. 28 What the Government gets A royalty fee per container / tonne of cargo; Navigation / dockage fees per ship; Tax income; A port worth an estimated US$166m at the end of the 30 years plus Cost control during the 30 years of the concession (Government only pays the VGF upfront - no additional Capex, no Opex, no maintenance costs). VGF = Viability Gap Funding – Government contribution
  • 29. 29 Tibar Bay Port  It is the gateway to Timor-Leste;  It is the only deep seawater port in the country;  State of the art Infrastructure and up to date Equipment;  A worldwide Port Operator.
  • 31. Approach on Environmental and Social Impact  Designed, built and operated as per high International Standards (including IFC Performances Standards).  Government has completed Resettlement and Livelihood Action Plans and has compensated affected community.  Concessionaire has carried out Environmental Impact Assessment and mitigation measures based on a high standard level.  As part of the mitigation plan, Biodiversity Action Plan will also be implemented by the Concessionaire. 31
  • 32. Obrigadu Barak 32 We Know About Dealing With Growth!

Editor's Notes

  1. To note – real GDP is the most commonly used data as it removes the impact of inflation from the data and thus allows comparison over time. In the National Accounts, this is taken as ‘constant prices’ which in this case, the fixed prices are those from 2015. Timor’s official GDP is non-oil as this removes the fluctuations from the data. In Timor-Leste total GDP fluctuates significantly from year to year based on changes in oil sector output. This sector has accounted for over 70% of Timorese output in recent years. This coupled with the relatively small level of employment in the oil sector means that total GDP is not an optimal measure of economic performance.
  2. We do not forecast total GDP or oil GDP – just non-oil.
  3. In recent years, inflation in Timor-Leste has fluctuated widely. After a lengthy period of double-digit inflation between March 2011 and September 2013, inflation decreased dramatically and fell below the Government’s 4%-6% target range in January 2014. By November 2015, Timor-Leste experienced deflation due to falling international oil and food prices. This episode of deflation ended with zero inflation in December 2016 and Timor is now experiencing positive but low and stable inflation.
  4. Dili port has become an economic bottleneck; Harbour limitations restrict port access to small ships, thereby preventing access by competing shipping lines operating larger vessels and the productivity gains that would result;