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Measuring Agility
                   Top 5 Metrics and Myths




                                     Pete Behrens
                                     Agile Organization & Process Coach
© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC   pete@trailridgeconsulting.com   303.819.1809
Pete Behrens

    Agile Organization & Process Coach
               Certified Scrum Trainer
               Certified Scrum Coach
               Guide enterprise organizations in transitioning to an agile
                organization implementing agile methods
               Services for agile assessment, alignment, training and coaching

    Previous Experience
                      Led development of the requirements management solution
                       RequisitePro – a core product in the IBM Rational product line – using
                       the Rational Unified Process (RUP)
                      Consulted with EDS leading development of large data warehouse
                       solutions using Rapid Application Development (RAD)

© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                                                     2
Measurement Dimensions

           Predictability                  Value




          Quality                    Productivity
© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC              3
How are projects measured today?

                              Failed
                               23%

                                                                        Median
                                                                        Overrun
   Succeeded
      28%
                                                         Cost         50%
                                            Challenged
                                               49%
                                                         Schedule     100%

    • On Time
    • On Budget                                          The average project
    • With all initially planned features                Costs 50% more and takes
                                                         twice as long as planned
           Source: Chaos Report, Standish Group, 2001



© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                                                4
Traditional project visibility is
               often too late

                                                                                                Surprise !




                                                                             n
                                                                         la
                                                                   tP
                                                                    s
Features




                                                                 Te
                                                                                           al


                                                            t&
                                                                                       ctu

                                                        en
                                                                                 t   A
                                                     pm                         s
                                                                             Te
                                                 lo
                                                                         &
                                                 ve

                                                                     t
                                                                  en
                                                De



                                                              m
                                                         e lop
                                                     D ev
                  Analysis & Requirements


                                                Time

           © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                                                                5
Agile seeks transparency from
               the outset of the project

                                                                                                            Surprise !




                                                                                            n
                                                                                         la
Features




                                                                                     stP
                                                                                  Te
                                                                      i      ty
                                                                 ibil
                                                                             t&
                                                               is                                      al
                                                           l eV          en                         ctu
                                                        i
                                                                        m
                                                                                                   A
                                                     Ag                                       st
                                                                         p
                                                                      lo


                                                                                            Te
                                                                  ve



                                                                                        &
                                                               De




                                                                                   e nt
                                                                                  m
                                                                             e lop
                                                                         v
                   Analysis & Requirements                             De
                      Sprint 1   Sprint 2       Sprint 3   Sprint 4
                                                                 Time

           © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                                                                            6
Predictability Metric - Velocity
 25



 20                                                                                     Average = 19



 15



 10

                                                                      Teams will tend toward a
   5                                                                  consistent velocity after a
                                                                      few sprints if the team and
                                                                      domain stay consistent
   0
          Sprint 1     Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Sprint 5 Sprint 6 Sprint 7 Sprint 8



© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                                                                     7
Sprints drive predictability

                                              Traditional Project

       Predictable                                Uncertain                  Unpredictable



                                        Agile Project with Timeboxed Iterations

        Sprint          Sprint       Sprint    Sprint   Sprint      Sprint   Sprint    Sprint



                                               Project Timeline


                                                                 Definition:
                                                                 Sprint = Iteration = Timebox
© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                                                         8
Velocity - Advanced Burn Down

                                      Measures team
                                       velocity (work
                                       complete per sprint)
                                      Measures scope
                                       change over time
                                      Guides release-level
                                       decision making




© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                        9
Predictability Metric -
     On Time Delivery
                                     Last non-agile release




Since March 2007 every
 Salesforce.com agile
   release has been
   deployed on-time
         (down to the exact minute)


                                                 Source: Scrum Gathering 2008 - Salesforce.com Keynote Address

© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                                                                     10
Agile is value-driven

                             Predictive Process           Adaptive Process
                                 (Waterfall)                  (Agile)
Constraints                           Requirements        Cost           Schedule




                                         Plan                    Value/Vision
                                        Driven                      Driven




 Estimates                     Cost           Schedule            Features

                                   The plan creates          The vision creates
                                cost/schedule estimates      feature estimates

© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                                                  11
What is valued?


Actual use of requested features in predictive projects
                                        Always
                                          7%      Never
                              Often                45%
                              13%                         Results:

                                                          • 64% Rarely or never used
                     Sometimes
                       16%
                                                          • 20% Frequently used
                                         Rarely
                                          19%


                                                             Source: Standish Group study
                                                             presented at XP2002 by Jim Johnson


   © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                                                   12
The Value of Time
                                                             Traditional Single Release

                                                                      Delivered
                                                                         1-5
                           Agile Incremental Release
                  Delivered          Delivered   Delivered      Delivered     Delivered
                      1                  2           3              4             5



                                                        Time



                                                                              Value
                                                                               Gap



                                                         Value
© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                                                        13
Value Metric - Feature Delivery



 94% feature
  request increase
  from 2006 - 2007

 38% increase in
  feature request
  delivered per
  developer

                                       Source: Scrum Gathering 2008 - Salesforce.com Keynote Address

  © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                                                         14
Value Metric - Customer Survey



                                      Ask your customers!
                                      Set a baseline and
                                       measure quarterly
                                      Qualitative & Quantitative
                                      Questions cover
                                        Responsiveness
                                        Quality of features
                                        Support provided
                                        Delivery timeliness
                                        Feature value
© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC      ...                   15
Quality Metric -
     Running Tested Features (RTF)
      Measures the number of automated unit and
           functional tests for a team/product over time

                Measures quality as a leading indicator
                Measures productivity with respect to complexity better
                 than other measures




© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC   Source: http://www.xprogramming.com/xpmag/jatRtsMetric.htm   16
RTF Example
          Israeli Air Force in 2005
                                                                           Increased confidence in
                                                                            team and management
                                                                           Enabled accurate and
                                                                            effective decision making
                                                                           Motivated writing tests

                                                                           Motivated writing smaller
                                                                            tests - more adaptable
                                                                           # of tests generally reflected
http://www.cs.huji.ac.il/~davidt/papers/Agile_Metrics_AgileUnited05.pdf
                                                                            complexity better than other
                                                                            methods (e.g. SLOC,
                                                                            Function Points, etc.)
     © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                                                               17
Quality Metric -
     Issue / Defect Costs
      Measure the # of product issues and defects
           multiplied by the cost of addressing them
                Measures quality as a lagging indicator
                Measures support cost impact of quality




© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                         18
Issue/Defect Cost @ IBM

1,056
                                          1,056



   792                                                          2008
                          Expected                      Cost per
                          Actual                         Defect = $16,000
   528                                                   Ticket =    $500

                                                        Savings = $2.6M
   264

                    168                            67   Economics of Agile Development
                                     32                 Sue McKinney, IBM - 2008
                                                        Agile2008 Conference Case Study
       0
                       Defects               Tickets

© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                                                    19
Myth - Metrics drive team
     performance
                            Metrics are not inherently good or bad
                            It is the use of the metric that drives team dysfunction




© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                                                 20
Myth - Velocity measures
     productivity (or value)
      Story points are relative
      Cannot compare velocity across teams
      All teams, products, environments,
       constraints, and dependencies are different
      Some stories are more valued than others




© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                   21
Myth - 100% Committed vs.
           Actual drives estimation accuracy
                40
                     78%             64%        91%        100%       120%

                30   32
                                                                                 Predictability
                                     28
 Story Points




                          25                                               24
                20                              22
                                                     20    20 20      20            Committed
                                          18
                                                                                    Actual

                10
                                                                                 Productivity


                 0
                     Sprint 1        Sprint 2   Sprint 3   Sprint 4   Sprint 5
© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                                                        22
Commitment vs. Actual




                                     Completed
                                     Remaining



                                                 Share commitment vs. actual as
                                                 a fact to drive discussions:

                                                 1. Why didn’t we get it done?
                                                 2. What are we doing about it?
                                                 3. What are the impact to the
                                                    release goals?

© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                                            23
Commitment vs. Actual




         150.0

                                                                 Completed
                                                                 Remaining


         112.5
                                                                             Share commitment vs. actual as
                                                                             a fact to drive discussions:
Points




          75.0


                                                                             1. Why didn’t we get it done?
          37.5
                                                                             2. What are we doing about it?
                                                                             3. What are the impact to the
            0
                 Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep
                                                                                release goals?

© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                                                                        23
Myth - Higher velocity is
     always a good thing
                                      Technical debt is bad

                                      Technical debt is any “not-
                                       quite-right” code not fixed
                                       (e.g. Bugs, refactors,
                                       workarounds, etc.)
                                      Pushing too hard on new
                                       product value and velocity
                                       tends to increase technical
                                       debt
                                      Measure and limit technical
                                       debt accumulation

© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                             24
Myth - Sprints “Fail”

      Maximum information is generated when the
      probability of failure is 50% - not when
      hypothesis are always correct.


      It is necessary to have a reasonable failure rate
      in order to generate a reasonable amount of new
      information.

                                     - Reinertsen, Managing the Design Factory


© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                                               25
Treat Sprints as Practice


      Sprints allow teams to practice the skill of
           delivering high-quality software on time

      Preventing failure in sprints limits team
           learning, growth, discipline, empowerment
           and productivity




© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                     26
Top 5 (or 6) Agile Metrics

           Predictability                                         Value
                                     2. On time delivery
                                                            3. Customer
               1. Velocity                                     Surveys

                                                    4. # Features or
                                                       Value Delivered
               6. Issue/Defect Cost

                                     5. Running Tested Features

          Quality                                          Productivity
© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                                        27
Top 5 (or 6) Agile Metric Myths

     1. Metrics drive team performance

     2. Velocity measures productivity

     3. Achieving 100% commitment to actual
        increases estimation accuracy

     4. Increasing velocity is always a good thing

     5. Sprints “Fail”

     6. An Agile tool will make you agile
© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                   28
V1 provides metrics and an agile
     framework - You guide agility




© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC      29
Extending the Metrics


     7. Velocity --> Investment, $/sprint, $/story pt

     8. Features Delivered --> Earned Value

     9. Customer Surveys --> Employee Surveys

     10.Quality/Productivity --> Technical Debt

© 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC                      30

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Measuring Agility: Top 5 Metrics And Myths

  • 1. Measuring Agility Top 5 Metrics and Myths Pete Behrens Agile Organization & Process Coach © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC pete@trailridgeconsulting.com 303.819.1809
  • 2. Pete Behrens Agile Organization & Process Coach  Certified Scrum Trainer  Certified Scrum Coach  Guide enterprise organizations in transitioning to an agile organization implementing agile methods  Services for agile assessment, alignment, training and coaching Previous Experience  Led development of the requirements management solution RequisitePro – a core product in the IBM Rational product line – using the Rational Unified Process (RUP)  Consulted with EDS leading development of large data warehouse solutions using Rapid Application Development (RAD) © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 2
  • 3. Measurement Dimensions Predictability Value Quality Productivity © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 3
  • 4. How are projects measured today? Failed 23% Median Overrun Succeeded 28% Cost 50% Challenged 49% Schedule 100% • On Time • On Budget The average project • With all initially planned features Costs 50% more and takes twice as long as planned Source: Chaos Report, Standish Group, 2001 © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 4
  • 5. Traditional project visibility is often too late Surprise ! n la tP s Features Te al t& ctu en t A pm s Te lo & ve t en De m e lop D ev Analysis & Requirements Time © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 5
  • 6. Agile seeks transparency from the outset of the project Surprise ! n la Features stP Te i ty ibil t& is al l eV en ctu i m A Ag st p lo Te ve & De e nt m e lop v Analysis & Requirements De Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Time © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 6
  • 7. Predictability Metric - Velocity 25 20 Average = 19 15 10 Teams will tend toward a 5 consistent velocity after a few sprints if the team and domain stay consistent 0 Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Sprint 5 Sprint 6 Sprint 7 Sprint 8 © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 7
  • 8. Sprints drive predictability Traditional Project Predictable Uncertain Unpredictable Agile Project with Timeboxed Iterations Sprint Sprint Sprint Sprint Sprint Sprint Sprint Sprint Project Timeline Definition: Sprint = Iteration = Timebox © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 8
  • 9. Velocity - Advanced Burn Down  Measures team velocity (work complete per sprint)  Measures scope change over time  Guides release-level decision making © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 9
  • 10. Predictability Metric - On Time Delivery Last non-agile release Since March 2007 every Salesforce.com agile release has been deployed on-time (down to the exact minute) Source: Scrum Gathering 2008 - Salesforce.com Keynote Address © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 10
  • 11. Agile is value-driven Predictive Process Adaptive Process (Waterfall) (Agile) Constraints Requirements Cost Schedule Plan Value/Vision Driven Driven Estimates Cost Schedule Features The plan creates The vision creates cost/schedule estimates feature estimates © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 11
  • 12. What is valued? Actual use of requested features in predictive projects Always 7% Never Often 45% 13% Results: • 64% Rarely or never used Sometimes 16% • 20% Frequently used Rarely 19% Source: Standish Group study presented at XP2002 by Jim Johnson © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 12
  • 13. The Value of Time Traditional Single Release Delivered 1-5 Agile Incremental Release Delivered Delivered Delivered Delivered Delivered 1 2 3 4 5 Time Value Gap Value © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 13
  • 14. Value Metric - Feature Delivery  94% feature request increase from 2006 - 2007  38% increase in feature request delivered per developer Source: Scrum Gathering 2008 - Salesforce.com Keynote Address © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 14
  • 15. Value Metric - Customer Survey  Ask your customers!  Set a baseline and measure quarterly  Qualitative & Quantitative  Questions cover  Responsiveness  Quality of features  Support provided  Delivery timeliness  Feature value © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC  ... 15
  • 16. Quality Metric - Running Tested Features (RTF)  Measures the number of automated unit and functional tests for a team/product over time  Measures quality as a leading indicator  Measures productivity with respect to complexity better than other measures © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC Source: http://www.xprogramming.com/xpmag/jatRtsMetric.htm 16
  • 17. RTF Example Israeli Air Force in 2005  Increased confidence in team and management  Enabled accurate and effective decision making  Motivated writing tests  Motivated writing smaller tests - more adaptable  # of tests generally reflected http://www.cs.huji.ac.il/~davidt/papers/Agile_Metrics_AgileUnited05.pdf complexity better than other methods (e.g. SLOC, Function Points, etc.) © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 17
  • 18. Quality Metric - Issue / Defect Costs  Measure the # of product issues and defects multiplied by the cost of addressing them  Measures quality as a lagging indicator  Measures support cost impact of quality © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 18
  • 19. Issue/Defect Cost @ IBM 1,056 1,056 792 2008 Expected Cost per Actual Defect = $16,000 528 Ticket = $500 Savings = $2.6M 264 168 67 Economics of Agile Development 32 Sue McKinney, IBM - 2008 Agile2008 Conference Case Study 0 Defects Tickets © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 19
  • 20. Myth - Metrics drive team performance Metrics are not inherently good or bad It is the use of the metric that drives team dysfunction © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 20
  • 21. Myth - Velocity measures productivity (or value)  Story points are relative  Cannot compare velocity across teams  All teams, products, environments, constraints, and dependencies are different  Some stories are more valued than others © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 21
  • 22. Myth - 100% Committed vs. Actual drives estimation accuracy 40 78% 64% 91% 100% 120% 30 32 Predictability 28 Story Points 25 24 20 22 20 20 20 20 Committed 18 Actual 10 Productivity 0 Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Sprint 5 © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 22
  • 23. Commitment vs. Actual Completed Remaining Share commitment vs. actual as a fact to drive discussions: 1. Why didn’t we get it done? 2. What are we doing about it? 3. What are the impact to the release goals? © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 23
  • 24. Commitment vs. Actual 150.0 Completed Remaining 112.5 Share commitment vs. actual as a fact to drive discussions: Points 75.0 1. Why didn’t we get it done? 37.5 2. What are we doing about it? 3. What are the impact to the 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep release goals? © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 23
  • 25. Myth - Higher velocity is always a good thing  Technical debt is bad  Technical debt is any “not- quite-right” code not fixed (e.g. Bugs, refactors, workarounds, etc.)  Pushing too hard on new product value and velocity tends to increase technical debt  Measure and limit technical debt accumulation © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 24
  • 26. Myth - Sprints “Fail” Maximum information is generated when the probability of failure is 50% - not when hypothesis are always correct. It is necessary to have a reasonable failure rate in order to generate a reasonable amount of new information. - Reinertsen, Managing the Design Factory © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 25
  • 27. Treat Sprints as Practice  Sprints allow teams to practice the skill of delivering high-quality software on time  Preventing failure in sprints limits team learning, growth, discipline, empowerment and productivity © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 26
  • 28. Top 5 (or 6) Agile Metrics Predictability Value 2. On time delivery 3. Customer 1. Velocity Surveys 4. # Features or Value Delivered 6. Issue/Defect Cost 5. Running Tested Features Quality Productivity © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 27
  • 29. Top 5 (or 6) Agile Metric Myths 1. Metrics drive team performance 2. Velocity measures productivity 3. Achieving 100% commitment to actual increases estimation accuracy 4. Increasing velocity is always a good thing 5. Sprints “Fail” 6. An Agile tool will make you agile © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 28
  • 30. V1 provides metrics and an agile framework - You guide agility © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 29
  • 31. Extending the Metrics 7. Velocity --> Investment, $/sprint, $/story pt 8. Features Delivered --> Earned Value 9. Customer Surveys --> Employee Surveys 10.Quality/Productivity --> Technical Debt © 2009 Trail Ridge Consulting, LLC 30