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CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY
Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company
is strictly prohibited
Special edition to assess impact of
2nd (partial) lock-down in Europe
Results from consumer survey November 6-10, 2020
COVID-19
Auto & Mobility
Consumer Insights
McKinsey & Company 2
COVID-19 is first and foremost a major humanitarian challenge.
Thousands of health professionals are battling the virus, putting their own lives at risk.
Overstretched health systems will need time and help to return to a semblance of normalcy.
Solving the humanitarian challenge is, of course, priority #1.
Much remains to be done globally to respond and recover, from counting the humanitarian costs
of the virus, to supporting the victims and families, to finding a vaccine.
This document is meant to help with a narrower goal: provide
consumer insights during the current COVID-19 situation.
In addition to the humanitarian challenge, there are implications for the wider economy, businesses,
and employment. This document includes consumer insights from a survey conducted between
May 9-17, May 27-29, June 16-18, July 15-17, Sept 2-4 and Nov 6-10 in UK, DE, FR, IT.
McKinsey & Company 3
Executive summary
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
Car buying Mobility
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
Overall second lockdown in EU
is perceived as less challenging
and disruptive than first one in
spring (44% stating (slightly) less
challenging, 21% (slightly) more
challenging), French respondents
feel most affected
Higher income respondents feel
less affected from second
(partial) lock-down
Respondents that feel
particularly challenged in 2nd
lock-down tend to attribute
more importance on private
vehicle access (38% of this
group state an increased
importance, vs. 26% in overall
population)
58% of EU consumers travelling
less, showing a 7 p.p. decrease
vs. September; respondents
mobility usage currently most
affected in France and Italy
Post-COVID-19, consumers are
likely to return to pre-COVID-19
habits; walking, biking, and
micro-mobility might potentially
become more popular
Shift to private vehicles for
intercity travelling significantly
large for respondents not owning
a private vehicle
A fourth of consumers values
constant access to a private
vehicle more than before
COVID-19, esp. younger and
female consumers
Perception
2nd lock-down
Intent to buy a new car in next 12 months has dropped by 13pp.
vs. Sep., especially in France (-19 p.p.);
Used car purchase intent more robust (-2pp. vs. Sep.), even
increasing in UK, slightly down in GER and France and more
significant drop in IT (-8pp)
Respondents plan to rather delay and spend less on their next car
purchase (e.g., requiring discounts, smaller car/volume brand, less
likely BEV/ADAS features), high income respondents less affected
Customers make their purchase decision again more dependent
on available discounts – share of respondents that would buy
independently of discounts decreased significantly across EU markets
Preference for physical touchpoints at the dealers have
decreased, especially visible amongst the 35-54 year old population.
Openness for online sales is highest in UK and Germany (ca.
50%) and lowest in France (36%)
Net intent to do maintenance work in the next month decreased
across all regions vs. September, especially in Italy
McKinsey & Company 4
-3
-3
-5
-11
2nd lockdown in EU results in a decreased purchase intent for new
cars, reduction in aftermarket work, and a drop in mobility usage
1.Q: Before the COVID-19 / COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to buy a new car? 2 Q: During or after the COVID-19 / COVID-19 crisis, how likely will you be to buy a new car?
3 Q: What type of maintenance, repair and improvement work have you delayed or done additionally?
Sampled to match gen pop 18+ years within markets; individual markets weighted based on 2019 car market size, figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding
Purchase intent new car vs. used car1,2
Percent of respondents
Car buying Aftermarket Mobility
Customer outlook on maintenance
and repair in light of 2nd lock-down3
Net impact Nov. vs. Sep in “plan for next month”
Mobility pattern change vs. Pre-Covid
Number of respondents, in percent
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (June 16-18), wave 4 (July 15 – 17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
100
60
70
80
90
Pre-
COVID-
19
July
15-17
May
27-29
May
9-17
June
16-18
Sep
2-4
Nov
6-10
New car Used car
7 5
-22
-29 -30
-53
-22
-28
2
Nov
3
2
May Sep
2
-7+24
Slightly
decrease
Slightly
increase
Significantly
increase
Significantly
decrease
McKinsey & Company 5
10 8 6
15 12
6
9
8
-19 -21 -16 -18 -23
-8 -7
-6
-14
-4
3 312 12 12 15 10
9 8
13
9
-27
-34
-27
-15
-30
-17
-17
-15
-8
-27
5
Overall second lockdown in EU is perceived as less challenging
and disruptive, French respondents feel most affected
Perception of second lockdown vs. first one
Percent of respondents
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
Mobility behavior disruption of second lockdown vs. first one
Percent of respondents
Significantly more challenging
Significantly less challengingSlightly more challenging
Slightly less challenging Significantly more disruptive
Slightly more disruptive
Slightly less disruptive
Much less disruptive
Results wave 6 (nov 6-10)
McKinsey & Company 6
High income respondents feel slightly less challenged by second
lockdown, especially in Italy
Perception of second lockdown vs. first one
Percent of respondents
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
Significantly more challenging
Significantly less challengingSlightly more challenging
Slightly less challenging
14 12
9
-32
-26
-19
-17
3
High
income
Low
income
+3
13 11
-37 -33
-20
-16
3
High
income
5
Low
income
+1
15 12
8
-30 -26
-17
-15
3
High
income
Low
income
+2
19 14
7 13
-14 -15
-8 -8
Low
income
High
income
+1
9 10
10
-35 -30
-24
-27
High
income
4
Low
income
+7
Results wave 6 (nov 6-10)
McKinsey & Company 7
“Lockdown challenged” respondents put higher importance on
access to private vehicle and showed slightly lower demand reduction
Importance of constant
access to private vehicle
Percent of respondents stating
“Increased”
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
Results wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
Importance of private
vehicle for intercity travel
Percent of respondents stating
“Increased”
38
26
1. Respondents stating perception of second lockdown more challenging
Drop in new car demand
since 2nd lockdown
Purchase intent new cars September
vs. November, in pp.
33
27
-11 -13
Mobility pattern changes
since 2nd lockdown
Delta of respondents stating
“decreased” Sep vs. November, in pp.
-9 -7
EU Overall"Lockdown-challenged“ respondents1
Contents
Car buying
Aftermarket
Mobility
McKinsey & Company 8
McKinsey & Company 9
Demand for new cars in EU dropped as a response to the second
lockdown to levels of the first lockdown, used cars less affected
Purchase intent next 12 months for new car vs. used car1
Indexed to pre-COVID-19 value (=100)
1. Weighted based on 2019 new car sales
60
70
90
80
100
May
27-29
Pre-COVID-19 May
9-17
June
16-18
July
15-17
Sep
2-4
Nov
6-10
-13pp
-2pp
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10)
New car Used car
McKinsey & Company 10
New car purchase intent shows significant drops across all EU
markets after the second COVID-19 related lockdowns
1.Q: BEFORE the COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months?
2.Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how likely are you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months?
74
31 36
49 50 53
43
26
30
27
27
32
33
28
Nov
6-10
64
Sep
2-4
May
9-11
June
16-18
May
27-29
Before
COVID-
19
July
15-17
76
86
60
100
82
71 -15
-40
-29%
Likely Very/extremely likely
Change in % / p.p.
70
46
58 58 54
63
51
30
33
26
34 36
28
34
Before
COVID-
19
Sep
2-4
May
11-13
May
27-29
June
16-18
July
15-17
Nov
6-10
91
100
79
84
91 91
85 -6
-21
-15%
61
37 36 34 40 42
28
39
37 39 40
39 37
36
July
15-17
June
16-18
64
Before
COVID-
19
Sep
2-4
May
11-13
May
27-29
Nov
6-10
75
100
75 74
79 79
-15
-25
-36%
67
46
59 59 55 61
47
33
44
37
48
44
49
45
June
16-18
Before
COVID-
19
May
15-17
May
27-29
Nov
6-10
July
15-17
Sep
2-4
100
9189
96
106
100
110
-19
-11
-9%
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
07/08: Up to UR 9,000 purchase subsidy for xEVs, plus
abolishing vehicle tax on BEVs until 2030
06/01: EUR 7k subsidy for the purchase of an EV
costing up to EUR 45k and EUR 2k for PHEVs up to
EUR 50k
07/17: EUR 6,000 incentive for the purchase of lower
emission ICEs, HEVs and BEVs costing up to EUR 61k
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
-12
+3
X Premium brand customers in p.p.
-9
-18
Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10)
Purchase intent new cars vs. pre-COVID-19 level1,2
Percent Points
McKinsey & Company 11
Used car purchase intent much more robust – even increasing in UK,
slightly down in GER and France and more significant drop in IT
1. Q: BEFORE the COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months?
2. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how likely are you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months?
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
51
30 32 31 33 33 33
49
30 27
37 38 40
46
May
27-29
Before
COVID-
19
Nov
6-10
May
9-11
June
16-18
59
July
15-17
Sep
2-4
100
60
69 71
74
79
-21%
Very/extremely likelyLikely
65
31 34 37
47
32
42
35
39
37
38
44
53
41
86
Before
COVID-
19
July
15-17
Sep
2-4
May
11-13
May
27-29
June
16-18
Nov
6-10
74
71
100
69
91
82
-18%
43
30
23
30 33 30
35
57
41 54
51
52 62 49
July
15-17
72
Before
COVID-
19
Sep
2-4
May
11-13
May
27-29
June
16-18
Nov
6-10
100
92
77
81
85 84
-16%
53
36 32
44 43
28 33
47
53
46
47 48
70 62
June
16-18
100
Before
COVID-
19
Nov
6-10
May
15-17
Sep
2-4
May
27-29
July
15-17
89
78
91 91
98
95
-5%
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10)
Purchase intent used cars vs. pre-COVID-19 level1,2
Percent Points
Change in %
McKinsey & Company 12
Since second lockdown, EU respondents show signs of delaying
purchase and reduced spending / higher discount expectation
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
-16
14
-12
5
-5
-9 -7 -6
Delay
purchase
Vehicle
with ICE
Spend
less
Requiring less
discounts
Finance/
lease
Smaller
car
Budget/
volume brand
Less ADAS
features
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
Results of wave 6 (nov 6-10)
Expected change in car characteristics (change of preferences before 2nd lockdown vs. after 2nd lockdown)
Net score
Requiring higher
discounts
Pull forward
purchase
Spend
more Buy
Electric
vehicle
Bigger
car
Premium
brand
More ADAS
features
McKinsey & Company 13
Changes in car characteristics due to the second lockdown are
directionally aligned across EU countries, but vary in magnitude
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
Delay purchase Budget/volume
brand
-7 -8-7
Finance / lease
0 -8
Requiring less
discounts
Spend less
-1 0
Vehicle with ICE
-5
Smaller car Less ADAS features
Expected change in car characteristics (change of preferences from before 2nd lockdown vs. after 2nd lock-down)
Net score
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
-24
26
-17 -11 -14 -17
-36
-14
14
-11
11
-8-5 -4 0
-20
17
-14 -15
-3
7
-5 -4
Pull forward
purchase
Requiring higher
discounts
Spend more Buy Electric vehicle Bigger car Premium brand More ADAS
features
Results of wave 6 (nov 6-10)
McKinsey & Company 14
High income respondents less influenced in their car purchase
plans.
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
-17
15
-14
4
-7
-11 -9 -7
Less ADAS featuresDelay purchase Finance / leaseRequiring less
discounts
Spend less Vehicle with ICE Smaller car Budget/volume
brand
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
-11
-4
32 00 0 0
Pull forward
purchase
Requiring higher
discounts
Spend more Buy Electric vehicle Bigger car Premium brand More ADAS
features
Results of wave 6 (nov 6-10)
High
income
Low
income
Expected change in car characteristics (change of preferences from before 2nd lockdown vs. after 2nd lock-down)
Net score
McKinsey & Company 15
Delays due to health concerns increased again
for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
1.Q: Which of the following reasons best describes why you have decided to delay your purchase (or lease) of a new vehicle? Please select one
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
14 14 13
35
25 32
52
61 55
Subsidies
Health
May 9-18 Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10
Economics
Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10)
Purchase delay reasons1
Percent of respondents
Health concerns as
reason for purchase delay
increased again for the
first time since the
COVID-19 outbreak, due
to the latest 2nd (partial)
lockdowns in the EU
Economics lose
ground, but are still
the biggest reason
for purchase delays
McKinsey & Company 16
Buy independently
of discount
Up to 20%
More than 20%
Discount expectations have significantly increase since 2nd
lockdown – less customers state to buy “independently of discount”
1.Q: What total discount/incentive amount (incl. any potential government subsidies) would it take for you to buy or lease a vehicle in the next 1-2 months?
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
Sep 2-4
14
Nov 6-10
24
59
67
1916
14
Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10
22
54
63
23 23
19
Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10
7
63 67
18
26
10
13
Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10
60 55
27
35
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
Required discount amount for consumer to purchase a vehicle in next 1-2 months1
Percent of respondents
Results of wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10)
McKinsey & Company 17
Preference to interact physically at dealership has
particularly decreased for age group 35-54 years
32
37
58
Age 18-34 Age 35-54 Age 55-70
21
31
46
Age 18-34 Age 35-54 Age 55-70
36
43
57
Age 18-34 Age 55-70Age 35-54
35
41
61
Age 18-34 Age 35-54 Age 55-70
1.Q: When you LAST TIME purchased or leased a car/serviced a car, which of the following sources/channels did you predominately use? Answer: "In presence at dealer
2.Q: For your PLANNED/NEXT vehicle purchase/leased/car service, which of the following sources/channels would you prefer to use? Answer: "In presence at dealer"
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
Results of wave 6 (nov 6-10)
-10 -8 -8 0 -11 -9 +5 -4 0 -3 -14 -4
Δ p.p. vs previous purchase
Consumers preferring to interact in person at car dealership for purchasing next car1,2
Percent of respondents
McKinsey & Company 18
Interest in online and contactless offerings has strongly increased
in UK and Germany, while slightly decreased in France and Italy
1.Q: Would you consider purchasing or leasing a new or used vehicle completely online?
2.Q: How interested would you be in the following services?
3.Q: How interested would you be in contactless service options? / contactless car sales?
Δ p.p. vs Survey wave 1-5± xx
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (May 9-17, May 27-29, June 16-18, July 15-17)
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
A – Online buying - Buying a new vehicle online B – Contactless sales - Buying vehicle completely contactless C – Contactless service - Contactless service with dealer or repair shop
52
2510
34
42
A B
24
26
C
49
59
31
22
39
C
8
A
21
23
B
47
44
52
A
26
36
7 14
41
28
12
B
18
C
31
195
11
38
33
A B
23
C
43
34
52
3 8 5 6 7 1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1
Very/extremely interested
Interested
Results of wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10)
Interest in digital/contactless sales & service1,2,3
Percent of respondents
Contents
Car buying
Aftermarket
Mobility
McKinsey & Company 19
McKinsey & Company 20
Service and repair outlook for next month is still showing
a high share of customers that plan to do more work than usual…
1 Q: What type of maintenance, repair and improvement work have you delayed or done additionally?, figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2 Net impact is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they have delayed service & maintenance work from the % of respondents stating they have done additional maintenance work
47% 27%26%
11%79%10%
Delay No changes Done additional
28%65%7%
11%85%4%
25%55%19%
10%10% 79%
55% 32%14%
17% 16%67%
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
Net
impact2
0
+ 1
+7
0
-1
+21
+6
+18
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
Net impact
wave 52
- 3
+ 4
+5
+3
0
+24
+11
+29
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
Results of wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10)
Changes in maintenance and repair since beginning of COVID-191
% of respondents
Up until now
Plan for next month
Up until now
Plan for next month
Up until now
Plan for next month
Up until now
Plan for next month
McKinsey & Company 21
…however, net intent to do maintenance work in the next month
decreased across all regions vs. September Survey, especially in Italy
1 Q: What type of maintenance, repair and improvement work have you delayed or done additionally?, figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2 Net impact is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they have delayed service & maintenance work from the % of respondents stating they have done additional maintenance work
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
-3
-3
-5
-11
Results of wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10)
Customer outlook on maintenance and repair in light of 2nd lock-down
Net impact2 November vs. September in “plan for next month”
Contents
Car buying
Aftermarket
Mobility
McKinsey & Company 22
McKinsey & Company 23Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
Mobility usage patterns in France and Italy most affected
by the second COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe
1. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how has your mobility changed since the outbreak of COVID-19?
2. UK, Germany, Italy and France
3. Total mobility decrease wave 6 vs. wave 5
EU 2
Significantly increase
Slightly increase
Significantly decrease
Slightly decrease
x Mobility recovery3, in p.p.
4 5 5 8 6
-29 -29 -29 -28 -25 -26
-33
-26 -24
-16
-16 -16
W2 W4
2
1
W5
3
W1 W3
21
3
2
W6
-1
6 4
-21
-29 -32
-36 -37 -36
-66 -53
-40 -29 -23
-34
2
1
W6
22
W1 W2
1
2
2
3 4
W3 W4
2
W5
-10
4 5 6 7 4
-20
-25 -27 -29 -29 -31
-60 -50
-33
-23 -19
-35
2
W3
1 12
3
W1
2
W2
2
W4 W5 W6
-18
4 5 7 5
-22 -25 -27 -29 -29 -30
-53 -45
-36
-26
-22
-28
W1 W2
2
43
2 2
W3
2
W4
2
W5
2
W6
-7
4 5 7 6
-18 -19 -22 -24 -26 -27
-53 -50
-48
-39
-30 -27
22
4
W1 W2
2
4
W3
2
W4
3
W5
2
W6
+1
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10)
Mobility pattern changes (number and length of trips) since the outbreak of COVID-191
Number of respondents, in percent
Currently 58%
of EU
consumers
travelling less,
showing a 7
p.p. decrease
vs. last wave
due to the latest
lockdowns
Respondents
mobility usage
currently
most affected
in France
and Italy
McKinsey & Company 24
Walking/biking and micromobility potentially becoming
more popular in the modal mix of the "next normal"
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
Usage of transportation modes on a regular basis1,2
Number of respondents stating at least weekly, in percent
1. Q: Before/today/when you return to "next normal", how often did/do you/do you expect to use the following modes of transportation?
2. Once or more than once per week, aggregated results from UK, Germany, Italy and France
81
60
68
73
78
79
75
81
Wave 4
Wave 3
Wave 2
Before crisis
Wave 5
Wave 1
Return to
"normal life"
Wave 6
-20
-4
35
15
17
18
21
24
22
35
-20
-2
66
61
66
67
67
67
64
73
-6
-3
8
7
7
7
7
9
9
10
-1
-2
7
5
5
5
6
7
7
8
-1
0
8
6
6
5
6
7
7
9
-2
-1
x
Mobility
decrease, in p.p.
Mobility usage
pre- vs. post-crisis
Mobility usage
during crisis
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10)
Respondents
expect an
increased usage
of walking/
biking and
micromobility
when returning
to “normal life”
Slight decrease
in mobility usage
across all major
transportation
modes after 2nd
lockdowns in
Europe, but with
less magnitude
than 1st lockdown
Private car
Public
transport
Walking or biking
with private bike
Micromobility
(e.g., e-scooter,
e-bike)
Car sharing
(e.g.,
ShareNow)
Ride hailing
(e.g., Uber,
Lyft, taxis)
McKinsey & Company 25
Change of mode mix before and after COVID-19 shows
largest regional variation for public transport
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
Change of transportation modes when returning to "next normal" vs. before COVID-191,2
Delta of responses for return to "next normal" vs. before COVID-19 outbreak, in percent points
1. Q: Before/today/when you return to "next normal", how often did/do you/do you expect to use the following modes of transportation?
2. Mode usage once or more than once per week
3. UK, Germany, Italy and France
0,5
0,7
-0,1
0,8
0,7
0,2
-2,4
1,2
0,8
1,1
6,2
8,2
5,1
5,7
6,0
1,9
0,8
1,4
4,1
1,2
1,4
0,7
1,0
2,9
1,1
1,2
1,1
3,0
0,8
0
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
EU 3
Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10)
Private car Public transport
Walking or biking
with private bike
Micromobility
(e.g., e-scooter, e-bike)
Car sharing
(e.g., ShareNow)
Ride hailing
(e.g., Uber, Lyft, taxis)
McKinsey & Company 26Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
Frequency of commuting trips has significantly decreased
globally, second lockdown affecting especially France and Italy
1. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how has the number of trips of your commute changed since the outbreak of COVID-19?
2. Q: After you return to "next normal", i.e. when a vaccine against COVID-19 is broadly available and the pandemic is defeated, how do you think your commuting habits will be compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak?
13
-12 -12 -13 -14 -18 -14 -17
-66 -63 -60
-49 -38 -38
W2W1
2 2
3 12 4 3
W3
16
W4
5
W5
2
8
W6
8
-6
Next normal
+4
-19 -17 -20 -16 -17 -17 -11
-36 -33 -25
-19 -20 -21
W3
1
W1
1 22 1
W2
2 1 13
W4
15
W5
4
W6
7
9
-3
Next normal
0
18
11
-23 -21 -24 -23 -25 -26
-13
-56
-48 -37
-31 -25 -30
1 22
W1
1
W2
2 1
W3
1 44
W4
16
W5
1
W6
-3
Next normal
-6
-16 -15 -17 -17 -20 -19 -13
-51 -48
-32
-19 -14 -26
5 2 91 55
W1
5 21
W2 W3
1
W4
15
W5
1
W6
6
-3
Next normal
-10
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
Change in number of commuting trips during and after the crisis vs. commuting habits before1,2
Number of respondents, in percent
Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10)
Significantly decrease
Slightly increase
Significantly increase
Slightly decrease
McKinsey & Company 27Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
Around the world consumers expect to shift from airplanes and
trains for intercity travelling to an increased use of private vehicles
Airplane
Train
Private
vehicle
1. Q: After you return to next normal, how do you think travelling between cities will change compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak?
2. Consumers that have not used this mode of transportation before the COVID-19 outbreak excluded of scope of country
15 14 18 15 15
-37 -39 -33 -35 -42 -38 -32
14 14
Increased usage Decreased usage
18 14 18 22 18 18 19
-27 -31 -21 -29 -28 -28 -19
28 25 22
38 27 28 22
-15-11-11 -10-13 -9 -13
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10)
Change of mode for intercity travelling when returning to "next normal" vs. habits before COVID-19 outbreak1
Number of respondents2, in percent
Owning
a vehicle
Not owning
a vehicle
McKinsey & Company 28
Risk of infection: shared and public transport are not considered as
safe for health, infections became a top priority for the mode choice
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
81
9
64
8 5 5
People increasingly use active
transport modes such as
walking & biking
Public transit
ridership has
fallen
significantly
Car sharing usage, as all shared
mobility modes, dropped
significantly
“Car as safe
space”: People
switch to transport
modes with low
risk of infection
What we
observe
during the
pandemic
Private car
Public
transport
Walking/
biking3
Shared
micro
mobility Ride hailingCar sharing
1. Q: Which of the following modes of transportation do you consider safe for your health concerning a COVID-19 infection?
2. Aggregated results from US, UK, Germany, Italy, France, China and Japan
3. With private bike
4. For a private trip
Before the COVID-19 crisis Today
1. Time to destination
2. Price of trip
3. Space and privacy
4. Convenience
5. Congestion
1. Risk of infection
2. Time to destination
3. Space and privacy
4. Convenience
5. Price of trip
50
… percent of respondents
would increase mode usage
with regular disinfection
AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10)
Top 5 reasons to choose transport mode4
Reasons ranked by number of respondents
Modes of transportation considered safe for health, concerning a COVID-19 infection1,2
Number of respondents, in percent
McKinsey & Company 29
51
43
29
-22 -27
-37
35-5418-34 55-70
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
Increased importance of direct vehicle access and willingness to
expand this to new use cases, especially for younger consumers
By age
1.Q: How has the importance of having constant access to a private vehicle changed since the COVID-19 outbreak?
2.Q: Based on your experience with COVID-19,could you imagine extending your use of private vehicles beyond travelling in the future, (e.g. for consuming via drive-ins for shopping or cinema)?
3.Aggregated results from UK, DE, IT, FR
26
-14
Increased Decreased
36
24 21
-16 -14 -13
18-34 35-54 55-70
Results of wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
By age
Yes No
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
39
-30
3 3
Willingness to expand private vehicles to new use cases2
Share amongst vehicle owners, in percent
Importance of constant access to a private vehicle1
Number of respondents, in percent
McKinsey & Company 30
Disclaimer
McKinsey does not provide legal, medical or other regulated advice or guarantee results. These
materials reflect general insight based on information currently available and do not contain all of
the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information has not been
generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and subject to
change. McKinsey has no obligation to update these materials and makes no representation or
warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.
McKinsey & Company 31
Scope of global COVID-19 Auto & Mobility Consumer Survey
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
Markets
UK, DE, FR, IT
Pulse Survey
Wave 1: May 9-17
Wave 2: May 27-29
Wave 3: June 16-18
Wave 4: July 15-17
Wave 5: Sept 2-4
Wave 6: Nov 6-10
Respondents
Questions
1. Demographically representative sample of respondents between age 18-70
2. Consumers having planned or planning to buy/lease a car in the next 12 months
20+ questions on mobility behavior
20+ questions on car purchase intent
10 questions on aftersales behavior
10 questions on screening, demogra-
phics, COVID-19 impact
1k+ respondents per market, thereof:
 1,000 mobility participants1
 400 car purchase intenders2
6 Waves conducted
4 EU markets:

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McKinsey - Covid 19 - Global Auto Consumer Insights - November 2020

  • 1. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited Special edition to assess impact of 2nd (partial) lock-down in Europe Results from consumer survey November 6-10, 2020 COVID-19 Auto & Mobility Consumer Insights
  • 2. McKinsey & Company 2 COVID-19 is first and foremost a major humanitarian challenge. Thousands of health professionals are battling the virus, putting their own lives at risk. Overstretched health systems will need time and help to return to a semblance of normalcy. Solving the humanitarian challenge is, of course, priority #1. Much remains to be done globally to respond and recover, from counting the humanitarian costs of the virus, to supporting the victims and families, to finding a vaccine. This document is meant to help with a narrower goal: provide consumer insights during the current COVID-19 situation. In addition to the humanitarian challenge, there are implications for the wider economy, businesses, and employment. This document includes consumer insights from a survey conducted between May 9-17, May 27-29, June 16-18, July 15-17, Sept 2-4 and Nov 6-10 in UK, DE, FR, IT.
  • 3. McKinsey & Company 3 Executive summary AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 Car buying Mobility Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey Overall second lockdown in EU is perceived as less challenging and disruptive than first one in spring (44% stating (slightly) less challenging, 21% (slightly) more challenging), French respondents feel most affected Higher income respondents feel less affected from second (partial) lock-down Respondents that feel particularly challenged in 2nd lock-down tend to attribute more importance on private vehicle access (38% of this group state an increased importance, vs. 26% in overall population) 58% of EU consumers travelling less, showing a 7 p.p. decrease vs. September; respondents mobility usage currently most affected in France and Italy Post-COVID-19, consumers are likely to return to pre-COVID-19 habits; walking, biking, and micro-mobility might potentially become more popular Shift to private vehicles for intercity travelling significantly large for respondents not owning a private vehicle A fourth of consumers values constant access to a private vehicle more than before COVID-19, esp. younger and female consumers Perception 2nd lock-down Intent to buy a new car in next 12 months has dropped by 13pp. vs. Sep., especially in France (-19 p.p.); Used car purchase intent more robust (-2pp. vs. Sep.), even increasing in UK, slightly down in GER and France and more significant drop in IT (-8pp) Respondents plan to rather delay and spend less on their next car purchase (e.g., requiring discounts, smaller car/volume brand, less likely BEV/ADAS features), high income respondents less affected Customers make their purchase decision again more dependent on available discounts – share of respondents that would buy independently of discounts decreased significantly across EU markets Preference for physical touchpoints at the dealers have decreased, especially visible amongst the 35-54 year old population. Openness for online sales is highest in UK and Germany (ca. 50%) and lowest in France (36%) Net intent to do maintenance work in the next month decreased across all regions vs. September, especially in Italy
  • 4. McKinsey & Company 4 -3 -3 -5 -11 2nd lockdown in EU results in a decreased purchase intent for new cars, reduction in aftermarket work, and a drop in mobility usage 1.Q: Before the COVID-19 / COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to buy a new car? 2 Q: During or after the COVID-19 / COVID-19 crisis, how likely will you be to buy a new car? 3 Q: What type of maintenance, repair and improvement work have you delayed or done additionally? Sampled to match gen pop 18+ years within markets; individual markets weighted based on 2019 car market size, figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding Purchase intent new car vs. used car1,2 Percent of respondents Car buying Aftermarket Mobility Customer outlook on maintenance and repair in light of 2nd lock-down3 Net impact Nov. vs. Sep in “plan for next month” Mobility pattern change vs. Pre-Covid Number of respondents, in percent Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (June 16-18), wave 4 (July 15 – 17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10) AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 100 60 70 80 90 Pre- COVID- 19 July 15-17 May 27-29 May 9-17 June 16-18 Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10 New car Used car 7 5 -22 -29 -30 -53 -22 -28 2 Nov 3 2 May Sep 2 -7+24 Slightly decrease Slightly increase Significantly increase Significantly decrease
  • 5. McKinsey & Company 5 10 8 6 15 12 6 9 8 -19 -21 -16 -18 -23 -8 -7 -6 -14 -4 3 312 12 12 15 10 9 8 13 9 -27 -34 -27 -15 -30 -17 -17 -15 -8 -27 5 Overall second lockdown in EU is perceived as less challenging and disruptive, French respondents feel most affected Perception of second lockdown vs. first one Percent of respondents Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 Mobility behavior disruption of second lockdown vs. first one Percent of respondents Significantly more challenging Significantly less challengingSlightly more challenging Slightly less challenging Significantly more disruptive Slightly more disruptive Slightly less disruptive Much less disruptive Results wave 6 (nov 6-10)
  • 6. McKinsey & Company 6 High income respondents feel slightly less challenged by second lockdown, especially in Italy Perception of second lockdown vs. first one Percent of respondents Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 Significantly more challenging Significantly less challengingSlightly more challenging Slightly less challenging 14 12 9 -32 -26 -19 -17 3 High income Low income +3 13 11 -37 -33 -20 -16 3 High income 5 Low income +1 15 12 8 -30 -26 -17 -15 3 High income Low income +2 19 14 7 13 -14 -15 -8 -8 Low income High income +1 9 10 10 -35 -30 -24 -27 High income 4 Low income +7 Results wave 6 (nov 6-10)
  • 7. McKinsey & Company 7 “Lockdown challenged” respondents put higher importance on access to private vehicle and showed slightly lower demand reduction Importance of constant access to private vehicle Percent of respondents stating “Increased” Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey Results wave 6 (Nov 6-10) AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 Importance of private vehicle for intercity travel Percent of respondents stating “Increased” 38 26 1. Respondents stating perception of second lockdown more challenging Drop in new car demand since 2nd lockdown Purchase intent new cars September vs. November, in pp. 33 27 -11 -13 Mobility pattern changes since 2nd lockdown Delta of respondents stating “decreased” Sep vs. November, in pp. -9 -7 EU Overall"Lockdown-challenged“ respondents1
  • 9. McKinsey & Company 9 Demand for new cars in EU dropped as a response to the second lockdown to levels of the first lockdown, used cars less affected Purchase intent next 12 months for new car vs. used car1 Indexed to pre-COVID-19 value (=100) 1. Weighted based on 2019 new car sales 60 70 90 80 100 May 27-29 Pre-COVID-19 May 9-17 June 16-18 July 15-17 Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10 -13pp -2pp Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10) New car Used car
  • 10. McKinsey & Company 10 New car purchase intent shows significant drops across all EU markets after the second COVID-19 related lockdowns 1.Q: BEFORE the COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months? 2.Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how likely are you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months? 74 31 36 49 50 53 43 26 30 27 27 32 33 28 Nov 6-10 64 Sep 2-4 May 9-11 June 16-18 May 27-29 Before COVID- 19 July 15-17 76 86 60 100 82 71 -15 -40 -29% Likely Very/extremely likely Change in % / p.p. 70 46 58 58 54 63 51 30 33 26 34 36 28 34 Before COVID- 19 Sep 2-4 May 11-13 May 27-29 June 16-18 July 15-17 Nov 6-10 91 100 79 84 91 91 85 -6 -21 -15% 61 37 36 34 40 42 28 39 37 39 40 39 37 36 July 15-17 June 16-18 64 Before COVID- 19 Sep 2-4 May 11-13 May 27-29 Nov 6-10 75 100 75 74 79 79 -15 -25 -36% 67 46 59 59 55 61 47 33 44 37 48 44 49 45 June 16-18 Before COVID- 19 May 15-17 May 27-29 Nov 6-10 July 15-17 Sep 2-4 100 9189 96 106 100 110 -19 -11 -9% Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey 07/08: Up to UR 9,000 purchase subsidy for xEVs, plus abolishing vehicle tax on BEVs until 2030 06/01: EUR 7k subsidy for the purchase of an EV costing up to EUR 45k and EUR 2k for PHEVs up to EUR 50k 07/17: EUR 6,000 incentive for the purchase of lower emission ICEs, HEVs and BEVs costing up to EUR 61k AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 -12 +3 X Premium brand customers in p.p. -9 -18 Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10) Purchase intent new cars vs. pre-COVID-19 level1,2 Percent Points
  • 11. McKinsey & Company 11 Used car purchase intent much more robust – even increasing in UK, slightly down in GER and France and more significant drop in IT 1. Q: BEFORE the COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months? 2. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how likely are you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months? Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey 51 30 32 31 33 33 33 49 30 27 37 38 40 46 May 27-29 Before COVID- 19 Nov 6-10 May 9-11 June 16-18 59 July 15-17 Sep 2-4 100 60 69 71 74 79 -21% Very/extremely likelyLikely 65 31 34 37 47 32 42 35 39 37 38 44 53 41 86 Before COVID- 19 July 15-17 Sep 2-4 May 11-13 May 27-29 June 16-18 Nov 6-10 74 71 100 69 91 82 -18% 43 30 23 30 33 30 35 57 41 54 51 52 62 49 July 15-17 72 Before COVID- 19 Sep 2-4 May 11-13 May 27-29 June 16-18 Nov 6-10 100 92 77 81 85 84 -16% 53 36 32 44 43 28 33 47 53 46 47 48 70 62 June 16-18 100 Before COVID- 19 Nov 6-10 May 15-17 Sep 2-4 May 27-29 July 15-17 89 78 91 91 98 95 -5% AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10) Purchase intent used cars vs. pre-COVID-19 level1,2 Percent Points Change in %
  • 12. McKinsey & Company 12 Since second lockdown, EU respondents show signs of delaying purchase and reduced spending / higher discount expectation Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey -16 14 -12 5 -5 -9 -7 -6 Delay purchase Vehicle with ICE Spend less Requiring less discounts Finance/ lease Smaller car Budget/ volume brand Less ADAS features AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 Results of wave 6 (nov 6-10) Expected change in car characteristics (change of preferences before 2nd lockdown vs. after 2nd lockdown) Net score Requiring higher discounts Pull forward purchase Spend more Buy Electric vehicle Bigger car Premium brand More ADAS features
  • 13. McKinsey & Company 13 Changes in car characteristics due to the second lockdown are directionally aligned across EU countries, but vary in magnitude Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey Delay purchase Budget/volume brand -7 -8-7 Finance / lease 0 -8 Requiring less discounts Spend less -1 0 Vehicle with ICE -5 Smaller car Less ADAS features Expected change in car characteristics (change of preferences from before 2nd lockdown vs. after 2nd lock-down) Net score AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 -24 26 -17 -11 -14 -17 -36 -14 14 -11 11 -8-5 -4 0 -20 17 -14 -15 -3 7 -5 -4 Pull forward purchase Requiring higher discounts Spend more Buy Electric vehicle Bigger car Premium brand More ADAS features Results of wave 6 (nov 6-10)
  • 14. McKinsey & Company 14 High income respondents less influenced in their car purchase plans. Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey -17 15 -14 4 -7 -11 -9 -7 Less ADAS featuresDelay purchase Finance / leaseRequiring less discounts Spend less Vehicle with ICE Smaller car Budget/volume brand AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 -11 -4 32 00 0 0 Pull forward purchase Requiring higher discounts Spend more Buy Electric vehicle Bigger car Premium brand More ADAS features Results of wave 6 (nov 6-10) High income Low income Expected change in car characteristics (change of preferences from before 2nd lockdown vs. after 2nd lock-down) Net score
  • 15. McKinsey & Company 15 Delays due to health concerns increased again for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 1.Q: Which of the following reasons best describes why you have decided to delay your purchase (or lease) of a new vehicle? Please select one Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey 14 14 13 35 25 32 52 61 55 Subsidies Health May 9-18 Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10 Economics Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10) Purchase delay reasons1 Percent of respondents Health concerns as reason for purchase delay increased again for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak, due to the latest 2nd (partial) lockdowns in the EU Economics lose ground, but are still the biggest reason for purchase delays
  • 16. McKinsey & Company 16 Buy independently of discount Up to 20% More than 20% Discount expectations have significantly increase since 2nd lockdown – less customers state to buy “independently of discount” 1.Q: What total discount/incentive amount (incl. any potential government subsidies) would it take for you to buy or lease a vehicle in the next 1-2 months? Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey Sep 2-4 14 Nov 6-10 24 59 67 1916 14 Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10 22 54 63 23 23 19 Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10 7 63 67 18 26 10 13 Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10 60 55 27 35 AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 Required discount amount for consumer to purchase a vehicle in next 1-2 months1 Percent of respondents Results of wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10)
  • 17. McKinsey & Company 17 Preference to interact physically at dealership has particularly decreased for age group 35-54 years 32 37 58 Age 18-34 Age 35-54 Age 55-70 21 31 46 Age 18-34 Age 35-54 Age 55-70 36 43 57 Age 18-34 Age 55-70Age 35-54 35 41 61 Age 18-34 Age 35-54 Age 55-70 1.Q: When you LAST TIME purchased or leased a car/serviced a car, which of the following sources/channels did you predominately use? Answer: "In presence at dealer 2.Q: For your PLANNED/NEXT vehicle purchase/leased/car service, which of the following sources/channels would you prefer to use? Answer: "In presence at dealer" Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 Results of wave 6 (nov 6-10) -10 -8 -8 0 -11 -9 +5 -4 0 -3 -14 -4 Δ p.p. vs previous purchase Consumers preferring to interact in person at car dealership for purchasing next car1,2 Percent of respondents
  • 18. McKinsey & Company 18 Interest in online and contactless offerings has strongly increased in UK and Germany, while slightly decreased in France and Italy 1.Q: Would you consider purchasing or leasing a new or used vehicle completely online? 2.Q: How interested would you be in the following services? 3.Q: How interested would you be in contactless service options? / contactless car sales? Δ p.p. vs Survey wave 1-5± xx Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (May 9-17, May 27-29, June 16-18, July 15-17) AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 A – Online buying - Buying a new vehicle online B – Contactless sales - Buying vehicle completely contactless C – Contactless service - Contactless service with dealer or repair shop 52 2510 34 42 A B 24 26 C 49 59 31 22 39 C 8 A 21 23 B 47 44 52 A 26 36 7 14 41 28 12 B 18 C 31 195 11 38 33 A B 23 C 43 34 52 3 8 5 6 7 1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 Very/extremely interested Interested Results of wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10) Interest in digital/contactless sales & service1,2,3 Percent of respondents
  • 20. McKinsey & Company 20 Service and repair outlook for next month is still showing a high share of customers that plan to do more work than usual… 1 Q: What type of maintenance, repair and improvement work have you delayed or done additionally?, figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net impact is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they have delayed service & maintenance work from the % of respondents stating they have done additional maintenance work 47% 27%26% 11%79%10% Delay No changes Done additional 28%65%7% 11%85%4% 25%55%19% 10%10% 79% 55% 32%14% 17% 16%67% Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey +39 +39 +39 +39 +39 +39 +39 +39 Net impact2 0 + 1 +7 0 -1 +21 +6 +18 AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020 Net impact wave 52 - 3 + 4 +5 +3 0 +24 +11 +29 +39 +39 +39 +39 +39 +39 +39 +39 Results of wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10) Changes in maintenance and repair since beginning of COVID-191 % of respondents Up until now Plan for next month Up until now Plan for next month Up until now Plan for next month Up until now Plan for next month
  • 21. McKinsey & Company 21 …however, net intent to do maintenance work in the next month decreased across all regions vs. September Survey, especially in Italy 1 Q: What type of maintenance, repair and improvement work have you delayed or done additionally?, figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net impact is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they have delayed service & maintenance work from the % of respondents stating they have done additional maintenance work Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 -3 -3 -5 -11 Results of wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10) Customer outlook on maintenance and repair in light of 2nd lock-down Net impact2 November vs. September in “plan for next month”
  • 23. McKinsey & Company 23Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility Mobility usage patterns in France and Italy most affected by the second COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe 1. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how has your mobility changed since the outbreak of COVID-19? 2. UK, Germany, Italy and France 3. Total mobility decrease wave 6 vs. wave 5 EU 2 Significantly increase Slightly increase Significantly decrease Slightly decrease x Mobility recovery3, in p.p. 4 5 5 8 6 -29 -29 -29 -28 -25 -26 -33 -26 -24 -16 -16 -16 W2 W4 2 1 W5 3 W1 W3 21 3 2 W6 -1 6 4 -21 -29 -32 -36 -37 -36 -66 -53 -40 -29 -23 -34 2 1 W6 22 W1 W2 1 2 2 3 4 W3 W4 2 W5 -10 4 5 6 7 4 -20 -25 -27 -29 -29 -31 -60 -50 -33 -23 -19 -35 2 W3 1 12 3 W1 2 W2 2 W4 W5 W6 -18 4 5 7 5 -22 -25 -27 -29 -29 -30 -53 -45 -36 -26 -22 -28 W1 W2 2 43 2 2 W3 2 W4 2 W5 2 W6 -7 4 5 7 6 -18 -19 -22 -24 -26 -27 -53 -50 -48 -39 -30 -27 22 4 W1 W2 2 4 W3 2 W4 3 W5 2 W6 +1 AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10) Mobility pattern changes (number and length of trips) since the outbreak of COVID-191 Number of respondents, in percent Currently 58% of EU consumers travelling less, showing a 7 p.p. decrease vs. last wave due to the latest lockdowns Respondents mobility usage currently most affected in France and Italy
  • 24. McKinsey & Company 24 Walking/biking and micromobility potentially becoming more popular in the modal mix of the "next normal" Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility Usage of transportation modes on a regular basis1,2 Number of respondents stating at least weekly, in percent 1. Q: Before/today/when you return to "next normal", how often did/do you/do you expect to use the following modes of transportation? 2. Once or more than once per week, aggregated results from UK, Germany, Italy and France 81 60 68 73 78 79 75 81 Wave 4 Wave 3 Wave 2 Before crisis Wave 5 Wave 1 Return to "normal life" Wave 6 -20 -4 35 15 17 18 21 24 22 35 -20 -2 66 61 66 67 67 67 64 73 -6 -3 8 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 -1 -2 7 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 -1 0 8 6 6 5 6 7 7 9 -2 -1 x Mobility decrease, in p.p. Mobility usage pre- vs. post-crisis Mobility usage during crisis AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10) Respondents expect an increased usage of walking/ biking and micromobility when returning to “normal life” Slight decrease in mobility usage across all major transportation modes after 2nd lockdowns in Europe, but with less magnitude than 1st lockdown Private car Public transport Walking or biking with private bike Micromobility (e.g., e-scooter, e-bike) Car sharing (e.g., ShareNow) Ride hailing (e.g., Uber, Lyft, taxis)
  • 25. McKinsey & Company 25 Change of mode mix before and after COVID-19 shows largest regional variation for public transport Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility Change of transportation modes when returning to "next normal" vs. before COVID-191,2 Delta of responses for return to "next normal" vs. before COVID-19 outbreak, in percent points 1. Q: Before/today/when you return to "next normal", how often did/do you/do you expect to use the following modes of transportation? 2. Mode usage once or more than once per week 3. UK, Germany, Italy and France 0,5 0,7 -0,1 0,8 0,7 0,2 -2,4 1,2 0,8 1,1 6,2 8,2 5,1 5,7 6,0 1,9 0,8 1,4 4,1 1,2 1,4 0,7 1,0 2,9 1,1 1,2 1,1 3,0 0,8 0 AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 EU 3 Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10) Private car Public transport Walking or biking with private bike Micromobility (e.g., e-scooter, e-bike) Car sharing (e.g., ShareNow) Ride hailing (e.g., Uber, Lyft, taxis)
  • 26. McKinsey & Company 26Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility Frequency of commuting trips has significantly decreased globally, second lockdown affecting especially France and Italy 1. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how has the number of trips of your commute changed since the outbreak of COVID-19? 2. Q: After you return to "next normal", i.e. when a vaccine against COVID-19 is broadly available and the pandemic is defeated, how do you think your commuting habits will be compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak? 13 -12 -12 -13 -14 -18 -14 -17 -66 -63 -60 -49 -38 -38 W2W1 2 2 3 12 4 3 W3 16 W4 5 W5 2 8 W6 8 -6 Next normal +4 -19 -17 -20 -16 -17 -17 -11 -36 -33 -25 -19 -20 -21 W3 1 W1 1 22 1 W2 2 1 13 W4 15 W5 4 W6 7 9 -3 Next normal 0 18 11 -23 -21 -24 -23 -25 -26 -13 -56 -48 -37 -31 -25 -30 1 22 W1 1 W2 2 1 W3 1 44 W4 16 W5 1 W6 -3 Next normal -6 -16 -15 -17 -17 -20 -19 -13 -51 -48 -32 -19 -14 -26 5 2 91 55 W1 5 21 W2 W3 1 W4 15 W5 1 W6 6 -3 Next normal -10 AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 Change in number of commuting trips during and after the crisis vs. commuting habits before1,2 Number of respondents, in percent Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10) Significantly decrease Slightly increase Significantly increase Slightly decrease
  • 27. McKinsey & Company 27Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility Around the world consumers expect to shift from airplanes and trains for intercity travelling to an increased use of private vehicles Airplane Train Private vehicle 1. Q: After you return to next normal, how do you think travelling between cities will change compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak? 2. Consumers that have not used this mode of transportation before the COVID-19 outbreak excluded of scope of country 15 14 18 15 15 -37 -39 -33 -35 -42 -38 -32 14 14 Increased usage Decreased usage 18 14 18 22 18 18 19 -27 -31 -21 -29 -28 -28 -19 28 25 22 38 27 28 22 -15-11-11 -10-13 -9 -13 AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10) Change of mode for intercity travelling when returning to "next normal" vs. habits before COVID-19 outbreak1 Number of respondents2, in percent Owning a vehicle Not owning a vehicle
  • 28. McKinsey & Company 28 Risk of infection: shared and public transport are not considered as safe for health, infections became a top priority for the mode choice Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility 81 9 64 8 5 5 People increasingly use active transport modes such as walking & biking Public transit ridership has fallen significantly Car sharing usage, as all shared mobility modes, dropped significantly “Car as safe space”: People switch to transport modes with low risk of infection What we observe during the pandemic Private car Public transport Walking/ biking3 Shared micro mobility Ride hailingCar sharing 1. Q: Which of the following modes of transportation do you consider safe for your health concerning a COVID-19 infection? 2. Aggregated results from US, UK, Germany, Italy, France, China and Japan 3. With private bike 4. For a private trip Before the COVID-19 crisis Today 1. Time to destination 2. Price of trip 3. Space and privacy 4. Convenience 5. Congestion 1. Risk of infection 2. Time to destination 3. Space and privacy 4. Convenience 5. Price of trip 50 … percent of respondents would increase mode usage with regular disinfection AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020 Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10) Top 5 reasons to choose transport mode4 Reasons ranked by number of respondents Modes of transportation considered safe for health, concerning a COVID-19 infection1,2 Number of respondents, in percent
  • 29. McKinsey & Company 29 51 43 29 -22 -27 -37 35-5418-34 55-70 Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility Increased importance of direct vehicle access and willingness to expand this to new use cases, especially for younger consumers By age 1.Q: How has the importance of having constant access to a private vehicle changed since the COVID-19 outbreak? 2.Q: Based on your experience with COVID-19,could you imagine extending your use of private vehicles beyond travelling in the future, (e.g. for consuming via drive-ins for shopping or cinema)? 3.Aggregated results from UK, DE, IT, FR 26 -14 Increased Decreased 36 24 21 -16 -14 -13 18-34 35-54 55-70 Results of wave 6 (Nov 6-10) By age Yes No AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020 39 -30 3 3 Willingness to expand private vehicles to new use cases2 Share amongst vehicle owners, in percent Importance of constant access to a private vehicle1 Number of respondents, in percent
  • 30. McKinsey & Company 30 Disclaimer McKinsey does not provide legal, medical or other regulated advice or guarantee results. These materials reflect general insight based on information currently available and do not contain all of the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information has not been generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and subject to change. McKinsey has no obligation to update these materials and makes no representation or warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.
  • 31. McKinsey & Company 31 Scope of global COVID-19 Auto & Mobility Consumer Survey Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey Markets UK, DE, FR, IT Pulse Survey Wave 1: May 9-17 Wave 2: May 27-29 Wave 3: June 16-18 Wave 4: July 15-17 Wave 5: Sept 2-4 Wave 6: Nov 6-10 Respondents Questions 1. Demographically representative sample of respondents between age 18-70 2. Consumers having planned or planning to buy/lease a car in the next 12 months 20+ questions on mobility behavior 20+ questions on car purchase intent 10 questions on aftersales behavior 10 questions on screening, demogra- phics, COVID-19 impact 1k+ respondents per market, thereof:  1,000 mobility participants1  400 car purchase intenders2 6 Waves conducted 4 EU markets: