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This presentation was given as a keynote at the Illinois
   Institute of Technology Real Time Communications
      conference in Chicago on 11th September 2012




Martin Geddes
www.martingeddes.com
mail@martingeddes.com
                © 2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd
Cosmologies
  This presentation is about belief
 systems – ‘cosmologies’ – and our
 most basic assumptions about the                                  This is the motion of Mars
nature of the (networking) universe.                               across the sky, as seen on
                                                                       successive nights.




                      Do our models explain observed reality? If not,
                          the model has scope to be improved.
Reality vs Model


 The ancient Greeks struggled to
 explain this retrograde motion.
Indeed, the word ‘planet’ means
           ‘wanderer’.
Geocentric




     Their basic assumption was that the
      Earth is the centre of the universe.
     This is an anthropocentric viewpoint.
Everything revolved around the
Earth, because that’s where we
 are, and what could be more
      important than us?
Geocentric




             So the explanation for the motion
                of planets was to appeal to
  Gods!      unknown and unknowable forces.
Then this guy comes along with a
better idea in the 2nd century AD.




                 Ptolemy
Geocentric




             The planets go in little loops as
                they go round the Earth.
Epicycles!          All is explained!
Except that didn’t really account
  for what we observed. There
   was a residual motion that
wasn’t explained by epicycles. So
the basic assumptions had to be
           re-visited.




     Copernicus

                   A mere one and a bit millennia
                   later, Copernicus suggests that
                   maybe we (and the Earth) aren’t
                   the centre of the universe after
                                  all.
Geocentric                     Heliocentric

       His heresy was to say that the
      Sun was the centre of the solar
       system, and everything went
               around that.




                   Which is a shift in the origin
                   of how we reasoned about
                     planetary motion, and
                   required us to let go of the
   #fail             assumption the whole
                    universe revolves around
                                us.
Isaac
          Newton
This process of refinement
        continued.
Geocentric              Heliocentric




             Gravity explained the
               elliptical motion.



   #fail                      Gravity
The Sun turned out not to
 be the centre either – as
  we understood galactic
        structures.
And there were still
       unexplained residual
        differences between
      observed reality and our
      models. So relativity fills
              that gap.




You Know Who
Phantom Dark Energy Model
         (2007)
                    This refinement of
                   cosmological models
                   continues to this day.
Networking Cosmologies
I am proposing that we need to
  shift our ‘origin’ and adopt a
  better cosmology in order to
  make progress in networking.




      The existing                 A suggested
       dominant                     improved
      cosmology…                   cosmology…


             “Obese”                   “Lean”
The rest of this
      presentation
         involves               Agenda
    comparing a lot
     of ‘obese’ and
           ‘lean’
     cosmologies.
                          “Lean Networking”
                                                       Implications
                    Lean        WHAT     WHY
                Conversations    &     (“Obese
                                HOW     Pipes”)
   Lean                                                         Future of
Manufacturing                                     Internet,    Distributed
                                                  WebRTC,       Network
                                                    policy     Computing
GETTING THE BASIC IDEA

LEAN MANUFACTURING
This book introduced the
basic principles that we are
  interested in, and was a
   ‘cosmological shift’ in
  process manufacturing.




   Theory of
  Constraints
Bottleneck

 Every production system
 has stages of processing
  raw inputs into valued                    There is always a
         outputs.                        bottleneck somewhere
                                              in the system.



Supply of                                       Demand
  raw                                         for finished
materials                                        goods
Different Worldviews

 Batches make sure            Cost                          Throughput
there’s no idle time.
Variation just drives
                           Accounting                       Accounting
    up unit cost.

      Focus on            Utilisation (Cost)            Flow (Throughput)
    Work unit                  Batch                            Single-piece
     Variation                  Bad                                Good
   Key metric              Cost per Unit                        Lead Time
                                        Variation in quantity
                                           and quality of
                                        demand is ordinary.
Goldratt’s great       Aha! Fallacy
   insight was to
identify this fallacy.



 A resource standing
idle is a major waste.
      WRONG!
Journey to ‘Lean Anything’

                                  HIGH                                   But you can’t get flow
            Resource efficiency

                                                                       efficiency this way. Coping
                                                                         with variation requires
                                                                       slack, and you don’t have
 Are the                                                                           any.
machines
  busy?
                                                    The natural tendency of
                                                   managers seeing idle men
                                                   and machinery is to make
                                  LOW                     it get busy.



              Is stuff                   LOW                         HIGH
           produced fast                       Flow efficiency
             enough?
Eliyahu M. Goldratt


“A plant in which everyone
  is working all the time
    is very inefficient.”
                     Busy machinery isn’t the
                     same as creating value,
                      which is from products
                      delivered to customers
                             on time.
Inventory
  Keeping machinery busy
                                   (WIP)
upstream of a bottleneck just
  creates work-in-progress
 (WIP), which ties up capital,
requires storage, and inhibits
          flexibility.
Journey to ‘Lean Anything’

                      HIGH                                       So to get to
Resource efficiency

                                                            production nirvana,
                                                            you need to master
                                                             flow efficiency (i.e.
                                                            low lead time) first,
                                                               then figure out
                                                            resource efficiency.



                      LOW


                             LOW                     HIGH
                                   Flow efficiency
Key features of methodology

1. Visualise yourworkflow
2. Limit work-in-progress (WIP)
3. ERR… THAT’S IT!     Goldratt gave us a
                      methodology, which I
                          have grossly
                     oversimplified to these
                           two steps.
Key features of methodology

1. Visualise yourworkflow
2. Limit work-in-progress (WIP)
3. ERR… THAT’S IT!
Cumulative Flow Diagram
                           There are flow
                      visualisation techniques
                       which emphasise the
                      metrics we care about:
                         lead time and WIP.




                  Source: agilemanagement.net
Key features of methodology

1. Visualise yourworkflow
2. Limit work-in-progress (WIP)
3. ERR… THAT’S IT!
Regulate
Limit WIP by preventing
  more inflow into the
                           Inflow
    system than the
bottleneck can process.
Before we start on
   networking, let’s
    practise these
     techniques.       How could we use
                       lean principles to
                       escape from email
                             hell?

WARM-UP EXAMPLE

LEAN CONVERSATIONS
We’re not alone in
  thinking about this
 problem in this way.




  “A lesson
  from lean
manufacturing”
Aha! Fallacy


  A human standing
idle is a major waste.
 WRONG!
Bottleneck
 You really don’t want to
  spend your life doing
email. And even if you do,
there’s a finite amount of
time resource to dedicate
       to the cause.




                              24
Journey to ‘Lean Conversations’

                         HIGH
   Resource efficiency




                                                                So how can we lower
                                                                lead time and WIP to
                                                               create flow efficiency in
                                                                 our email handling?
                         LOW


                                LOW                     HIGH
                                      Flow efficiency
Key features of methodology

1. Visualise yourworkflow
2. Limit work-in-progress (WIP)
3. ERR… THAT’S IT!
My inbox




                                            I don’t keep my emails
                                            staring at me from my
                                          inbox, as if it was a to-do
                                           list anyone can scribble

          Empty…                                      on.


(except new messages since I got off the plane)
I use a product to
                   visualise and prioritise
                  my work – and at a glace
                   see what needs to be
                          done next.


Kanban visualisation system
An example ticket,
linked back to the
original email that
made the request.
Key features of methodology

1. Visualise yourworkflow
2. Limit work-in-progress (WIP)
3. ERR… THAT’S IT!
Limited WIP
            My personal
             workflow




 I limit WIP to force
me to recognise my           I also force myself
finite work capacity.           to focus on a
                              maximum of two
                             activities at once.
                             My attention is the
                                 bottleneck.
Regulate
                      Inflow


How can we do this
   for email?




                     24
End ‘inboxbloat’ by limiting WIP

“Jane’s inbox has reached its limit of 30 unread items.
To resubmit your message at a later time, click here.”

        “You have sent 3 messages to John.
He has a limit of 2 messages outstanding per person.
     Which message do you want to delete?”

     Holiday hell: “You have 319 new messages.”
– Just send them all back and ask people to re-submit!
That was the salad.
INTRODUCING   Now for the burger.



LEAN NETWORKING
Three kinds of network
        Network of                               Network of
        Possibilities                             Promises

                            Network of
                         PROBABILITIES
                                                       TDM circuit world,
                                                          IMS world

    NON-DETERMINISTIC       STOCHASTIC          DETERMINISTIC
      Manage priority,                          Manage sessions,
       control loops
                            Manage flow,          admission
                             contention          and capacity

Internet world
                         and trade loss/delay
UK demo ISP running since 2007
                                   My colleagues have built
                                    something that appears
                                   impossible in the existing
                                         cosmology.


Bounded flow isolation Unconditionally stable
Assured loss and delay Scavenger traffic
      The benefits of connections and
 connectionless… without needing circuits to
reserve capacity or congestion control loops!
Aha! Fallacy
How? Same as Goldratt –
  they saw the fallacy
    common to all
     networking.



 A network element standing
    idle is a major waste.

       WRONG!
Journey to ‘Lean Networking’

 Stop making                       HIGH
             Resource efficiency

   networks
mindlessly busy
 creating WIP
                                                                            Flow efficiency in
                                                                            networks means
                                                                           containing loss and
                                                                            delay to meet the
                                                                         bounds required by the
                                                                               application.
                                   LOW


                                          LOW                     HIGH
                                                Flow efficiency
Key features of methodology

1. Visualise yourworkflow
2. Limit work-in-progress (WIP)
3. ERR… THAT’S IT!
Improper Probability
Cumulative Distribution Function




                         See how loss and delay
                         accrue along the path,
                        using a probability mass.
Key features of methodology

1. Visualise yourworkflow
2. Limit work-in-progress (WIP)
3. ERR… THAT’S IT!
Queues are
Bottlenecks
Delay = WIP

               Waiting packets are the
              networking equivalent of
                        WIP.
WIP, WIP, WIP

  Today’s networks
 maximise WIP, with
TCP/IP being the worst
       offender.
We use the word ‘idle’ to
 mean ‘lazy’ as well as to
 describe a network link
 that is not transmitting.




  This gives us a clue we
      have made an
inappropriate moral value
        judgement
Bertrand Russell


  “Immense harm is
 caused by the belief
that work is virtuous.”
      What underpins this is a
       belief that it is morally
      wrong for links to be idle.
Limit WIP!
  Instead we should build
   networks so that they
limit packet ingress to the
    known downstream
bottleneck, and minimise
           WIP.
Work-
That means the most basic
  assumption built into
 every network router is
   wrong – or at least
  unhelpful and costly.




        Conserving
         Queues
                     Work-conserving queues are ones which
                      always transmit if the link is idle and a
                                packet is waiting.
Category Error
 This is a big deal.



             Networks don’t
 The clue seemed to

                do work!
  be in the name –
‘net-work’ – but they
aren’t machines that
      do work.


They do translocation.
!            Work metaphor   !

Putting stuff in the wrong place stops
  you doing something useful, i.e.
moving packets can create
     negative value
 A lot of the ‘work’
 routers do in fact
  destroys value.
A BETTER COSMOLOGY

QUALITY ATTENUATION
Quality
  Bandwidth                       Attenuation




 Let’s give the old cosmology a    Let’s give ours
name – the ‘bandwidth’ model.       a name too.
And abbreviate
                  it.

Bandwidth                    ΔQ
Shannon solved this
‘noise’ stuff for single
 links; we’re doing it     What is ΔQ?
     for complete
multiplexed systems.




   An idea like
entropy or noise…
          …with many mathematical
              representations
Alan Turing
 assumed          Zen of Netwrking
   this.



      An ideal network copies data
         instantly and perfectly
      Real networks instead create
             loss and delay
 And that’s it.
 All they do is
   degrade.
Zen of Netwrking


  Networks are
 trading spaces
    This is       They aren’t pipes. They
 important.           just allocate the
Pay attention.   degradation compared to
                   ‘instant and perfect’.
Zen of Netwrking


                      Networks are
  Which can be
traded (e.g. drop
                     trading spaces
  more packets
means less delay
   for the rest)      that allocate
                    {loss-and-delay}
Zen of Netwrking


  Networks are
 trading spaces        They allocate
                            this


  that allocate
                     disappointment
                     (degradation) to
                      different flows.


disappointment
Zen of Netwrking


             Networks are
            trading spaces
             that allocate
Which we give a
 fancy name



          quality attenuation
Zen of Netwrking


 Networks are
trading spaces
 that allocate
      ΔQ      And make it
             harder to type.
The Three Fundamental
              Laws of Networking
                                    If you offer a load to a network,
1.    ΔQ exists                        loss and delay will happen.



2.    ΔQ is conserved                         You can’t un-lose or
                                                un-delay stuff.

3.    ΔQ has two degrees of freedom (for
      mutable contention)
                                      These are the ‘thermodynamic’ laws we
  Rather like pressure-volume-        have to work with and constrain the best
temperature you learnt in school              outcome we can deliver.
for a piston, networks have load-
            loss-delay.
So we are working with a different
                     mental model that shifts our origin.


       Bandwidth                                            ΔQ


 Networks aren’t about pushing
packets along one behind another.                       Instead, networks just do inter-
That’s an anthropomorphic model                          process communications with
 that wrongly treats packets like                            added loss and delay.
        physical packages.


                                                    Inter-process
   “Beads on a string”
                                                       comms
Bandwidth                                        ΔQ



            ∞
 In the bandwidth model, a packet is
                                                       0
                                            Our origin is ‘zero loss and delay’. That
                                             makes the mathematics tractable –
  assumed to stay at rest until we do      rather like putting the sun at the centre
‘work’ to push it along. The default is        of elliptical orbits and forgetting
 it takes an infinite time to get there.                    epicycles.
People talk about ‘quality of
                                    service’, but what is this
                                     ‘quality’ they talk of?

         Bandwidth                                                ΔQ
       Quality is the                                Quality is the
       presence of                                    absence of
        something                                     something
         positive                                      negative
Their quality is “priority over                                   Our quality is “the absence of
 other packets to get work                                         excessive disappointment”.
            done”.
Bandwidth                    ΔQ



“Megabytes per second”   Loss/delay probability
                             distributions.




    Averages             Instants
Bandwidth          ΔQ

                       Doing work that creates
                       negative value is dumb.
                           Stop doing it!




Work-conserving    Non-work
    queues     conserving queues
THE PROBLEMS WITH

OBESE PIPES
Two kinds of obesity
                                          The Internet folk want you to
         Network of                       wildly overprovision networks       Network of
         Possibilities                     to make quality-demanding           Promises
                                            applications work. This is
                                                    expensive.



                                                         The traditional
                                                       telco folk want to
                                                          build lots and
                                                         lots of parallel
    NON-DETERMINISTIC                                      networks to       DETERMINISTIC
                                                          separate out

Overprovision!                                          different quality
                                                         requirements.      Overbuild!
                                                       This is expensive.
  (This doesn’t actually work – but they haven’t
    figured it out yet, so let’s keep it a secret
              between you and me.)
Two kinds of obesity
    Network of
                                            HIGH     YOU
    Possibilities




                      Resource efficiency
                                                     ARE
                                                     HERE



                                                         The Internet is stuck here. TCP
                                                            is designed to saturate
                                                             networks – i.e. create
                                                          resource efficiency. It can’t
                                                             create flow efficiency.
                                            LOW
  NON-DETERMINISTIC

Overprovision!                                     LOW                               HIGH
                                                          Flow efficiency
We have lost control over the
            customer experience
                                                                Network
                                   PREDICTABLE     CHAOTIC    components
within-bounds quality
                                                              often behave
 Transported load at


                        HIGH    The Internet is               poorly under
                               also unstable at                 high load
                                 all loads and
                                     suffers
                                  congestion
                                                                Necessary to
                               collapse effects.
                                                                manage the
                                                                load on the
                                                                 network to
                                                               remain within
                        LOW                                   the predictable
                                                                  region of
                                                                 operation
                               LOW                     HIGH

                                        Offered load
Two kinds of obesity
                                           But they’ve gone totally
                                            the wrong way since
                                                                        Network of
                      HIGH
                                                                         Promises
Resource efficiency


                                            then with IMS which
                                              creates a horribly
                            Traditional     bloated and inflexible
                         telco folk were          network.
                           heading the
                         right way with
                          technologies
                             like ATM.

                                              YOU
                      LOW                     ARE
                                              HERE                     DETERMINISTIC

                              LOW                           HIGH      Overbuild!
                                    Flow efficiency
Network obesity means
                  LIFESTYLE CHANGES!

 Nobody wants to                     Aspiration
   hear the lean                   Quantify desired outcomes    e.g. how often is it OK
networking doctor                                                for YouTube to show
tell them that their
  morbid obesity
                                    Expectation                 the “circle of death”?
                                      Define quality need        Average time to first
 demands lifestyle                                              frame? MOS score for
      changes.                                                        VoIP apps?
                                      Execution
                               Match delivery to requirement
    How do aspirations map                                          How to make
    to statistical bounds on
         loss and delay?
                                     Assurance                  applications fail in the
                                        Closing the loop          right order when
                                                               instantaneous demand
              Did it do what you                                   exceeds supply?
            expected? How do you
                     know?
This is a new
            technology to put
            real-time two-way
           voice and video into
              web browsers.

SO WHAT?

INTERNET, WEBRTC &
POLICY
Bufferbloat
  The phenomenon
    that Internet
                                       This problem won’t
engineers struggle to
                                         find a resolution
 explain and resolve
                                       without a change in
   in their current
                                      cosmology; attempts
 cosmology is called
                                        to fix it will spawn
    ‘bufferbloat’.
                                          new problems.
We’re not measuring
                                   The network                               the things that

                        Hierarchy of Need                                    actually matter,

  Applications need
finite bounds on loss                                 Rapid variation in loss
  and delay to work.                                    and delay cause
                                                       application failure.

                3. Uncontended: Low loss and delay
                                                                                         !

                2. Stable: High stationarity
                                                                                         !
                 1. Feasible: High capacity
                                                                                  The bandwidth
                                                                                 school of thought
           Note: exact requirements are application-dependent                   focuses entirely on
                                                                                capacity. This is not
                                                                                     enough.
The Internet has an inbuilt                      …because TCP breaks basic
                       The Internet’s
‘statistical noise’ problem…                       control theory principles.


                 ‘Global Warming’ problem
                                                   We’re multiplexing more

       Dropping flow isolation                      apps, devices and users
                                                  together; and doing more
                                                   real-time applications as
     + Rising peaks of failure                         well as bulk data.

                                                  So bufferbloat-like effects
     + Loss of stationarity good.
                             Not                   cause more problems.



     = More ‘extreme weather events’
               (and poor for real-time comms)
   The Internet is intrinsically unsuitable for
       carrying all of society’s real-time
           communications needs.
The guiding ‘end-to-end principle’ on
which Internet architecture is based is
 a post-rationalisation of bad design
      decisions from the 1970s.
  This has a cost our kids will carry.




            End-to-end
             principle
Network Neutrality is
               ‘beads on a string’ model

     Has broken philosophical foundations:
             Value comes from flows with bounded ΔQ
                           – Not individual packets
                     Loss is OK and delay can be good!
            – It’s not a fault or moral failure to avoid work
          System of two degrees of freedom (loss/delay)
   Network neutrality is    – Not just one (delay)
 intellectual nonsense. But
once most people thought it
 was obvious the Sun went
    round the Earth too.
! Network Neutrality !

       In man vs mathematics,
       the mathematics takes a
             really hard                                                  There are rigorous and
                                                                        meaningful ways of defining
                                                                           non-discrimination.

          negotiating stance
                                                                                 Just not this way.
Network neutrality as currently conceived puts regulators in conflict
with the mathematics of statistical multiplexing. The maths will win.
WE’RE NEARLY DONE

CLOSING THOUGHTS
Technological Revolutions &
  Techno-economic
                  Financial Capital
revolutions go through             Carlota Perez
 this predictable cycle.
                             Electricity, Steel
                                 & Heavy
                               Engineering
                                                     IT & Telecoms
                   Steam, Coal,              Oil, Petrochemicals     ? Biotech,
                  Iron, Railways               & Automobiles         Nanotech




    1770                                                      2012
The Turning Point
                                              Networking becomes
  You are here! c.70 years                        embedded into
      after transistor                        everyday life, invisible
         invented.                           in the way electricity is.




                 Amazing!         Fit-for-purpose
                 It works!
We’re done inventing
the basic component
   technologies –
     datagrams,
  smartphones, etc.
The Turning Point
                                                    ΔQ model fills the
                                                 intellectual hole Turing
 Networking has been
                                                   left behind when he
 done on a “try it and
                                                 assumed translocation
  see” basis, without
                                                 was instant and perfect.
rigorous mathematical
     foundations.


          Networking           Networking
          as alchemy           as chemistry
                            “Translocatability” now
                                 has intellectual
                            foundations as solid as
                                “computability”.
Obese monoservice networks
                 Which means we can begin to
                treat network obesity caused by
                   excessive consumption of
                   monoservice (single class)
                           networks.
End the Cycle of Failure
           Select new              Build
           technology             network


Tweak it       Because that really isn’t   Tweak network to
 again           working any more.         get apps working




             Build it                  Get
             bigger                 complaints
What we need is…


             Ubiquitous data
             transport for a
              digital society
   And will be even less
suitable for what we need
         in future.
Lean polyservice networks




 We need to go from ‘black and
white’ to ‘colour’ networks. Each
  flow has a different quality
         (‘colour’) need.
Beyond cloud & internet:
 Distributed Computing


ΔQ is only half of the puzzle. The
  Internet is mis-architected in
other ways. Check out Recursive
                                      ΔQ
                                     RINA
Internet Architecture for how it
        should be done.
Coming in 2013
New book by Martin Geddes:

 “The Internet is
Just a Prototype”
Free newsletter

    www.martingeddes.com
   Congratulations, you have
survived this intellectual assault
 course. For further intellectual
  assaults, read my newsletter.
Future of Voice
             & Telco-OTT workshops
                            London, England
                                  October 23rd & 24th

 www.futureofcomms.com
For a more gentle re-shaping of
your views on communications,
  come to a public workshop.
Get in touch

Martin Geddes                                        Pleased to hear from you.
Founder, Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd


                Twitter: @martingeddes
                Email: mail@martingeddes.com



 Additional credits and thanks to:
 Neil Davies, Peter Thompson, John Day, Fred Goldstein
Thank You

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Martin Geddes - Lean Networking

  • 1. This presentation was given as a keynote at the Illinois Institute of Technology Real Time Communications conference in Chicago on 11th September 2012 Martin Geddes www.martingeddes.com mail@martingeddes.com © 2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd
  • 2. Cosmologies This presentation is about belief systems – ‘cosmologies’ – and our most basic assumptions about the This is the motion of Mars nature of the (networking) universe. across the sky, as seen on successive nights. Do our models explain observed reality? If not, the model has scope to be improved.
  • 3. Reality vs Model The ancient Greeks struggled to explain this retrograde motion. Indeed, the word ‘planet’ means ‘wanderer’.
  • 4. Geocentric Their basic assumption was that the Earth is the centre of the universe. This is an anthropocentric viewpoint.
  • 5. Everything revolved around the Earth, because that’s where we are, and what could be more important than us?
  • 6. Geocentric So the explanation for the motion of planets was to appeal to Gods! unknown and unknowable forces.
  • 7. Then this guy comes along with a better idea in the 2nd century AD. Ptolemy
  • 8. Geocentric The planets go in little loops as they go round the Earth. Epicycles! All is explained!
  • 9. Except that didn’t really account for what we observed. There was a residual motion that wasn’t explained by epicycles. So the basic assumptions had to be re-visited. Copernicus A mere one and a bit millennia later, Copernicus suggests that maybe we (and the Earth) aren’t the centre of the universe after all.
  • 10. Geocentric Heliocentric His heresy was to say that the Sun was the centre of the solar system, and everything went around that. Which is a shift in the origin of how we reasoned about planetary motion, and required us to let go of the #fail assumption the whole universe revolves around us.
  • 11. Isaac Newton This process of refinement continued.
  • 12. Geocentric Heliocentric Gravity explained the elliptical motion. #fail Gravity
  • 13. The Sun turned out not to be the centre either – as we understood galactic structures.
  • 14. And there were still unexplained residual differences between observed reality and our models. So relativity fills that gap. You Know Who
  • 15. Phantom Dark Energy Model (2007) This refinement of cosmological models continues to this day.
  • 16. Networking Cosmologies I am proposing that we need to shift our ‘origin’ and adopt a better cosmology in order to make progress in networking. The existing A suggested dominant improved cosmology… cosmology… “Obese” “Lean”
  • 17. The rest of this presentation involves Agenda comparing a lot of ‘obese’ and ‘lean’ cosmologies. “Lean Networking” Implications Lean WHAT WHY Conversations & (“Obese HOW Pipes”) Lean Future of Manufacturing Internet, Distributed WebRTC, Network policy Computing
  • 18. GETTING THE BASIC IDEA LEAN MANUFACTURING
  • 19. This book introduced the basic principles that we are interested in, and was a ‘cosmological shift’ in process manufacturing. Theory of Constraints
  • 20. Bottleneck Every production system has stages of processing raw inputs into valued There is always a outputs. bottleneck somewhere in the system. Supply of Demand raw for finished materials goods
  • 21. Different Worldviews Batches make sure Cost Throughput there’s no idle time. Variation just drives Accounting Accounting up unit cost. Focus on Utilisation (Cost) Flow (Throughput) Work unit Batch Single-piece Variation Bad Good Key metric Cost per Unit Lead Time Variation in quantity and quality of demand is ordinary.
  • 22. Goldratt’s great Aha! Fallacy insight was to identify this fallacy. A resource standing idle is a major waste. WRONG!
  • 23. Journey to ‘Lean Anything’ HIGH But you can’t get flow Resource efficiency efficiency this way. Coping with variation requires slack, and you don’t have Are the any. machines busy? The natural tendency of managers seeing idle men and machinery is to make LOW it get busy. Is stuff LOW HIGH produced fast Flow efficiency enough?
  • 24. Eliyahu M. Goldratt “A plant in which everyone is working all the time is very inefficient.” Busy machinery isn’t the same as creating value, which is from products delivered to customers on time.
  • 25. Inventory Keeping machinery busy (WIP) upstream of a bottleneck just creates work-in-progress (WIP), which ties up capital, requires storage, and inhibits flexibility.
  • 26. Journey to ‘Lean Anything’ HIGH So to get to Resource efficiency production nirvana, you need to master flow efficiency (i.e. low lead time) first, then figure out resource efficiency. LOW LOW HIGH Flow efficiency
  • 27. Key features of methodology 1. Visualise yourworkflow 2. Limit work-in-progress (WIP) 3. ERR… THAT’S IT! Goldratt gave us a methodology, which I have grossly oversimplified to these two steps.
  • 28. Key features of methodology 1. Visualise yourworkflow 2. Limit work-in-progress (WIP) 3. ERR… THAT’S IT!
  • 29. Cumulative Flow Diagram There are flow visualisation techniques which emphasise the metrics we care about: lead time and WIP. Source: agilemanagement.net
  • 30. Key features of methodology 1. Visualise yourworkflow 2. Limit work-in-progress (WIP) 3. ERR… THAT’S IT!
  • 31. Regulate Limit WIP by preventing more inflow into the Inflow system than the bottleneck can process.
  • 32. Before we start on networking, let’s practise these techniques. How could we use lean principles to escape from email hell? WARM-UP EXAMPLE LEAN CONVERSATIONS
  • 33. We’re not alone in thinking about this problem in this way. “A lesson from lean manufacturing”
  • 34. Aha! Fallacy A human standing idle is a major waste. WRONG!
  • 35. Bottleneck You really don’t want to spend your life doing email. And even if you do, there’s a finite amount of time resource to dedicate to the cause. 24
  • 36. Journey to ‘Lean Conversations’ HIGH Resource efficiency So how can we lower lead time and WIP to create flow efficiency in our email handling? LOW LOW HIGH Flow efficiency
  • 37. Key features of methodology 1. Visualise yourworkflow 2. Limit work-in-progress (WIP) 3. ERR… THAT’S IT!
  • 38. My inbox I don’t keep my emails staring at me from my inbox, as if it was a to-do list anyone can scribble Empty… on. (except new messages since I got off the plane)
  • 39. I use a product to visualise and prioritise my work – and at a glace see what needs to be done next. Kanban visualisation system
  • 40. An example ticket, linked back to the original email that made the request.
  • 41. Key features of methodology 1. Visualise yourworkflow 2. Limit work-in-progress (WIP) 3. ERR… THAT’S IT!
  • 42. Limited WIP My personal workflow I limit WIP to force me to recognise my I also force myself finite work capacity. to focus on a maximum of two activities at once. My attention is the bottleneck.
  • 43. Regulate Inflow How can we do this for email? 24
  • 44. End ‘inboxbloat’ by limiting WIP “Jane’s inbox has reached its limit of 30 unread items. To resubmit your message at a later time, click here.” “You have sent 3 messages to John. He has a limit of 2 messages outstanding per person. Which message do you want to delete?” Holiday hell: “You have 319 new messages.” – Just send them all back and ask people to re-submit!
  • 45. That was the salad. INTRODUCING Now for the burger. LEAN NETWORKING
  • 46. Three kinds of network Network of Network of Possibilities Promises Network of PROBABILITIES TDM circuit world, IMS world NON-DETERMINISTIC STOCHASTIC DETERMINISTIC Manage priority, Manage sessions, control loops Manage flow, admission contention and capacity Internet world and trade loss/delay
  • 47. UK demo ISP running since 2007 My colleagues have built something that appears impossible in the existing cosmology. Bounded flow isolation Unconditionally stable Assured loss and delay Scavenger traffic The benefits of connections and connectionless… without needing circuits to reserve capacity or congestion control loops!
  • 48. Aha! Fallacy How? Same as Goldratt – they saw the fallacy common to all networking. A network element standing idle is a major waste. WRONG!
  • 49. Journey to ‘Lean Networking’ Stop making HIGH Resource efficiency networks mindlessly busy creating WIP Flow efficiency in networks means containing loss and delay to meet the bounds required by the application. LOW LOW HIGH Flow efficiency
  • 50. Key features of methodology 1. Visualise yourworkflow 2. Limit work-in-progress (WIP) 3. ERR… THAT’S IT!
  • 51. Improper Probability Cumulative Distribution Function See how loss and delay accrue along the path, using a probability mass.
  • 52. Key features of methodology 1. Visualise yourworkflow 2. Limit work-in-progress (WIP) 3. ERR… THAT’S IT!
  • 54. Delay = WIP Waiting packets are the networking equivalent of WIP.
  • 55. WIP, WIP, WIP Today’s networks maximise WIP, with TCP/IP being the worst offender.
  • 56. We use the word ‘idle’ to mean ‘lazy’ as well as to describe a network link that is not transmitting. This gives us a clue we have made an inappropriate moral value judgement
  • 57. Bertrand Russell “Immense harm is caused by the belief that work is virtuous.” What underpins this is a belief that it is morally wrong for links to be idle.
  • 58. Limit WIP! Instead we should build networks so that they limit packet ingress to the known downstream bottleneck, and minimise WIP.
  • 59. Work- That means the most basic assumption built into every network router is wrong – or at least unhelpful and costly. Conserving Queues Work-conserving queues are ones which always transmit if the link is idle and a packet is waiting.
  • 60. Category Error This is a big deal. Networks don’t The clue seemed to do work! be in the name – ‘net-work’ – but they aren’t machines that do work. They do translocation.
  • 61. ! Work metaphor ! Putting stuff in the wrong place stops you doing something useful, i.e. moving packets can create negative value A lot of the ‘work’ routers do in fact destroys value.
  • 63. Quality Bandwidth Attenuation Let’s give the old cosmology a Let’s give ours name – the ‘bandwidth’ model. a name too.
  • 64. And abbreviate it. Bandwidth ΔQ
  • 65. Shannon solved this ‘noise’ stuff for single links; we’re doing it What is ΔQ? for complete multiplexed systems. An idea like entropy or noise… …with many mathematical representations
  • 66. Alan Turing assumed Zen of Netwrking this. An ideal network copies data instantly and perfectly Real networks instead create loss and delay And that’s it. All they do is degrade.
  • 67. Zen of Netwrking Networks are trading spaces This is They aren’t pipes. They important. just allocate the Pay attention. degradation compared to ‘instant and perfect’.
  • 68. Zen of Netwrking Networks are Which can be traded (e.g. drop trading spaces more packets means less delay for the rest) that allocate {loss-and-delay}
  • 69. Zen of Netwrking Networks are trading spaces They allocate this that allocate disappointment (degradation) to different flows. disappointment
  • 70. Zen of Netwrking Networks are trading spaces that allocate Which we give a fancy name quality attenuation
  • 71. Zen of Netwrking Networks are trading spaces that allocate ΔQ And make it harder to type.
  • 72. The Three Fundamental Laws of Networking If you offer a load to a network, 1. ΔQ exists loss and delay will happen. 2. ΔQ is conserved You can’t un-lose or un-delay stuff. 3. ΔQ has two degrees of freedom (for mutable contention) These are the ‘thermodynamic’ laws we Rather like pressure-volume- have to work with and constrain the best temperature you learnt in school outcome we can deliver. for a piston, networks have load- loss-delay.
  • 73. So we are working with a different mental model that shifts our origin. Bandwidth ΔQ Networks aren’t about pushing packets along one behind another. Instead, networks just do inter- That’s an anthropomorphic model process communications with that wrongly treats packets like added loss and delay. physical packages. Inter-process “Beads on a string” comms
  • 74. Bandwidth ΔQ ∞ In the bandwidth model, a packet is 0 Our origin is ‘zero loss and delay’. That makes the mathematics tractable – assumed to stay at rest until we do rather like putting the sun at the centre ‘work’ to push it along. The default is of elliptical orbits and forgetting it takes an infinite time to get there. epicycles.
  • 75. People talk about ‘quality of service’, but what is this ‘quality’ they talk of? Bandwidth ΔQ Quality is the Quality is the presence of absence of something something positive negative Their quality is “priority over Our quality is “the absence of other packets to get work excessive disappointment”. done”.
  • 76. Bandwidth ΔQ “Megabytes per second” Loss/delay probability distributions. Averages Instants
  • 77. Bandwidth ΔQ Doing work that creates negative value is dumb. Stop doing it! Work-conserving Non-work queues conserving queues
  • 79. Two kinds of obesity The Internet folk want you to Network of wildly overprovision networks Network of Possibilities to make quality-demanding Promises applications work. This is expensive. The traditional telco folk want to build lots and lots of parallel NON-DETERMINISTIC networks to DETERMINISTIC separate out Overprovision! different quality requirements. Overbuild! This is expensive. (This doesn’t actually work – but they haven’t figured it out yet, so let’s keep it a secret between you and me.)
  • 80. Two kinds of obesity Network of HIGH YOU Possibilities Resource efficiency ARE HERE The Internet is stuck here. TCP is designed to saturate networks – i.e. create resource efficiency. It can’t create flow efficiency. LOW NON-DETERMINISTIC Overprovision! LOW HIGH Flow efficiency
  • 81. We have lost control over the customer experience Network PREDICTABLE CHAOTIC components within-bounds quality often behave Transported load at HIGH The Internet is poorly under also unstable at high load all loads and suffers congestion Necessary to collapse effects. manage the load on the network to remain within LOW the predictable region of operation LOW HIGH Offered load
  • 82. Two kinds of obesity But they’ve gone totally the wrong way since Network of HIGH Promises Resource efficiency then with IMS which creates a horribly Traditional bloated and inflexible telco folk were network. heading the right way with technologies like ATM. YOU LOW ARE HERE DETERMINISTIC LOW HIGH Overbuild! Flow efficiency
  • 83. Network obesity means LIFESTYLE CHANGES! Nobody wants to Aspiration hear the lean Quantify desired outcomes e.g. how often is it OK networking doctor for YouTube to show tell them that their morbid obesity Expectation the “circle of death”? Define quality need Average time to first demands lifestyle frame? MOS score for changes. VoIP apps? Execution Match delivery to requirement How do aspirations map How to make to statistical bounds on loss and delay? Assurance applications fail in the Closing the loop right order when instantaneous demand Did it do what you exceeds supply? expected? How do you know?
  • 84. This is a new technology to put real-time two-way voice and video into web browsers. SO WHAT? INTERNET, WEBRTC & POLICY
  • 85. Bufferbloat The phenomenon that Internet This problem won’t engineers struggle to find a resolution explain and resolve without a change in in their current cosmology; attempts cosmology is called to fix it will spawn ‘bufferbloat’. new problems.
  • 86. We’re not measuring The network the things that Hierarchy of Need actually matter, Applications need finite bounds on loss Rapid variation in loss and delay to work. and delay cause application failure. 3. Uncontended: Low loss and delay ! 2. Stable: High stationarity ! 1. Feasible: High capacity The bandwidth school of thought Note: exact requirements are application-dependent focuses entirely on capacity. This is not enough.
  • 87. The Internet has an inbuilt …because TCP breaks basic The Internet’s ‘statistical noise’ problem… control theory principles. ‘Global Warming’ problem We’re multiplexing more Dropping flow isolation apps, devices and users together; and doing more real-time applications as + Rising peaks of failure well as bulk data. So bufferbloat-like effects + Loss of stationarity good. Not cause more problems. = More ‘extreme weather events’ (and poor for real-time comms) The Internet is intrinsically unsuitable for carrying all of society’s real-time communications needs.
  • 88. The guiding ‘end-to-end principle’ on which Internet architecture is based is a post-rationalisation of bad design decisions from the 1970s. This has a cost our kids will carry. End-to-end principle
  • 89. Network Neutrality is ‘beads on a string’ model Has broken philosophical foundations: Value comes from flows with bounded ΔQ – Not individual packets Loss is OK and delay can be good! – It’s not a fault or moral failure to avoid work System of two degrees of freedom (loss/delay) Network neutrality is – Not just one (delay) intellectual nonsense. But once most people thought it was obvious the Sun went round the Earth too.
  • 90. ! Network Neutrality ! In man vs mathematics, the mathematics takes a really hard There are rigorous and meaningful ways of defining non-discrimination. negotiating stance Just not this way. Network neutrality as currently conceived puts regulators in conflict with the mathematics of statistical multiplexing. The maths will win.
  • 92. Technological Revolutions & Techno-economic Financial Capital revolutions go through Carlota Perez this predictable cycle. Electricity, Steel & Heavy Engineering IT & Telecoms Steam, Coal, Oil, Petrochemicals ? Biotech, Iron, Railways & Automobiles Nanotech 1770 2012
  • 93. The Turning Point Networking becomes You are here! c.70 years embedded into after transistor everyday life, invisible invented. in the way electricity is. Amazing! Fit-for-purpose It works! We’re done inventing the basic component technologies – datagrams, smartphones, etc.
  • 94. The Turning Point ΔQ model fills the intellectual hole Turing Networking has been left behind when he done on a “try it and assumed translocation see” basis, without was instant and perfect. rigorous mathematical foundations. Networking Networking as alchemy as chemistry “Translocatability” now has intellectual foundations as solid as “computability”.
  • 95. Obese monoservice networks Which means we can begin to treat network obesity caused by excessive consumption of monoservice (single class) networks.
  • 96. End the Cycle of Failure Select new Build technology network Tweak it Because that really isn’t Tweak network to again working any more. get apps working Build it Get bigger complaints
  • 97. What we need is… Ubiquitous data transport for a digital society And will be even less suitable for what we need in future.
  • 98. Lean polyservice networks We need to go from ‘black and white’ to ‘colour’ networks. Each flow has a different quality (‘colour’) need.
  • 99. Beyond cloud & internet: Distributed Computing ΔQ is only half of the puzzle. The Internet is mis-architected in other ways. Check out Recursive ΔQ RINA Internet Architecture for how it should be done.
  • 100. Coming in 2013 New book by Martin Geddes: “The Internet is Just a Prototype”
  • 101. Free newsletter www.martingeddes.com Congratulations, you have survived this intellectual assault course. For further intellectual assaults, read my newsletter.
  • 102. Future of Voice & Telco-OTT workshops London, England October 23rd & 24th www.futureofcomms.com For a more gentle re-shaping of your views on communications, come to a public workshop.
  • 103. Get in touch Martin Geddes Pleased to hear from you. Founder, Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd Twitter: @martingeddes Email: mail@martingeddes.com Additional credits and thanks to: Neil Davies, Peter Thompson, John Day, Fred Goldstein