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EVALUATION
FORECASTING
M. S. Awad
CASE STUDY
SLIDES OF PRESENTATIONS
 AT 2013
EVALUATION SLIDE
 Forecasted 2013
 3,921,384 Pax
ACTUAL VS FORECAST 2013
 Annual Error
= 2.81 %
ACTUAL VS FORECAST 2014
 Annual Error
= 3.21
 Using the
same
parameters of
the previous
model
FORECAST
FORECAST 2013
M. S. Awad
MALTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
 OUTLINE
 Introduction
 Objective
 Conditions for Fair
Forecast
 Data Base ( 5 Years
)
 Passenger/Aircraft/
Cargo Forecast
2013
 Max/Min Signal
 Results
 Accuracy
 Conclusions
MALTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
 The concept of
forecasting by
Objective is used.
 Three DATA Sets
are addressed –
Passengers, A/C
Movements, and
Cargo.
 Introduction
 Using 3 years on monthly bases i.e 36 data
set
MALTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
 Max/Min Signal Tracking
approach
 Objective
 To forecast Passengers, Aircraft and Cargo
movements based on Max/Min Signal Tracking
approach. ( best forecasting scenario )
MALTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
 Conditions for Fair
forecast
 Coefficient Of
Determination
R2 > 80%
 Signal Tracking
- 4 < S. T. < 4
MALTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
PASSENGERS MOVEMENTS
PASSENGERS MOVEMENTS
EVALUATION ACTUAL VS FORECAST 2013
 Forecast
2013
3,921,384
AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS
AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS
CARGO MOVEMENTS
CARGO MOVEMENTS
RESULTS:
 Three Data Sets are analysis – Forecast
2013
 Traffic Passengers - 3,921,384
R2 = 99.0 S.T. = ± 4.98 ( Fair )
 Aircraft Movements – 28,009 Cycle
R2 = 97.4 S.T. = ± 4.22 ( Fair )
 Cargo Movements - 15,199,433 Kg
R2 = 34.3 S.T. = ± 4.55 ( Poor )
ACCURACY:
Accuracy of
Forecast :
- 2 Mislead but can be
fair
- 1 Poor
CONCLUSIONS:
 Traffic forecasting will be a positive trend at + 6% growth, it
will be expected to have 3,921,384 Pax in 2013. and shows
a fair seasonality patterned. (Evaluation shows a fair results
)
 Aircraft Movements: in this category – results show a
negative trend, it expected to have 28,009 cycles in 2013,
this may be due to changing aircraft type to have more
capacity by the airlines operators in Malta airport.
Recommend to use most recent data method (2012) to
forecast to avoid negative trend.
 For Cargo, there is no correlation even though a forecasting
patterned is developed, but that may not reflect a good
forecasting results. Cargo Movements - 15,199 Tonne
Malta international airport 1
UPDATE – FORECAST 2015
UPDATE – FORECAST 2015
MAX/MIN SIGNAL TRACKING ANALYSIS
ERRORS VS PERFORMANCE (MODEL UPDATED)
ACTUAL VS FORECAST 2013 (MODEL UPDATED)
 Annual Error
= 0.98 %
ACTUAL VS FORECAST 2014 ( MODEL UPDATED )
 Annual Error
= -1.25 %
 Using the
update input
figures for
2012-2014 .
 Monthly
Errors always
less than 5%
for
2012,2013, &
2014.
FORECAST 2015 ( FOR RECORD )
 Passenger
Forecast
 2015 =
4,727,871
Pax
WELCOME IN THE CLUB
CONTACT
 Mohammed Salem Awad
 Consultant
 Tel: 00967735222692
 Email: smartdecision2002@yahoo.com
 Webs: ww.slideshare.net/airport_forecasting

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Malta international airport 1