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Is Your Utility Ready?
New Report Says Local Solar Could
Power 10% of Country in 10 Years


                      John Farrell, Senior Researcher
We Need to Get Ready for a
                        Solar Rooftop Revolution

  Solar Power is Growing Incredibly Fast     ...And the Price is Dropping Rapidly
5,000                                      30¢

                                           25¢                  So
                                                                     la
3,750                                                                     re
                                                                               le c
                                           20¢                                        tr
                 installed                                                                 ic i
                                                                                                  ty
                megawatts
2,500                                      15¢
                                                                                  y
                                                    G r id e le c t r ic i t
                                           10¢
1,250
                                            5¢

   0                                        0¢
    1995     2000      2005    2010          2000    2005            2010                         2015   2020   2025
Right now...
          solar power supplies just
          0.1% of our electricity


                              2012



                 4,400 MW
If the trend continues...
            unsubsidized solar power could
(Within     supply 10% of our electricity,
10 years)   at lower prices.

                              2022


                 300,000 MW
(Within
10 years)
Solar Could Power Millions of Homes and Businesses
   ...at a lower price than electricity from the utility
                                        38 million
     LOW PRICE



     GUARANTEE
                         21 million




            3 million
             2012          2017           2022
In a decade,
  solar becomes
  competitive in
almost every state
Distributed Solar Potential at Parity with Utility Prices
             (megawatts of residential and commercial solar)
                                                   2012

                                                               3,500



1,200




                                   Percent of Sales
        56                            1-5%
                                      5-10%
                 500                  10% or more
Distributed Solar Potential at Parity with Utility Prices
                (megawatts of residential and commercial solar)
         360                                                                    1140

                         1200
                                                                  2022        700      20
                                      580
    2600                                        4400
                1100                                   7200                            4000
                                      970                                    12,000
                             800                               11,000
                                                                                      780
                                                2900                     11,000 72001800
         2400                        2300
                                                            5500 10,000     5100
                  1400
26,000                        4800                    11,000                           990
                                                                     19008200
                                       4100        6800        3600
                                                                        12,000
                                                           11,000
                7300                     5000      2800
                             1800                                      7000
                                                          5100 8500 16,000
                                                   7100
                                     32,000
                                              Percent of Sales
         590                                     1-5%          30,000
                                                 5-10%
                       750                       10% or more
U.S.               Year   Residential   Commercial
                   2012     14,800        5,500
Solar              2013     20,500       13,200

Parity             2014
                   2015
                            33,200
                            52,400
                                         23,100
                                         27,300
Potential          2016     75,000       33,000
                   2017    107,000       41,000
                   2018    130,000       53,700
                   2019    152,000       63,700
                   2020    175,000       80,800
                   2021    182,000       106,000
Installed today:
  4,000 MW         2022    190,000       122,000

                          Megawatts
Year   Residential   Commercial
  Solar
  Parity
  Potential                        10% of
                            U.S. electricity sales


   Installed today:
0.1% of electricity sales   2022     190,000       122,000

                                    Megawatts
How will we get there?
 www.ilsr.org/roofop-revolution/

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Is Your Utility Ready for a Solar Rooftop Revolution?

  • 1. Is Your Utility Ready? New Report Says Local Solar Could Power 10% of Country in 10 Years John Farrell, Senior Researcher
  • 2. We Need to Get Ready for a Solar Rooftop Revolution Solar Power is Growing Incredibly Fast ...And the Price is Dropping Rapidly 5,000 30¢ 25¢ So la 3,750 re le c 20¢ tr installed ic i ty megawatts 2,500 15¢ y G r id e le c t r ic i t 10¢ 1,250 5¢ 0 0¢ 1995 2000 2005 2010 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
  • 3. Right now... solar power supplies just 0.1% of our electricity 2012 4,400 MW
  • 4. If the trend continues... unsubsidized solar power could (Within supply 10% of our electricity, 10 years) at lower prices. 2022 300,000 MW
  • 5. (Within 10 years) Solar Could Power Millions of Homes and Businesses ...at a lower price than electricity from the utility 38 million LOW PRICE GUARANTEE 21 million 3 million 2012 2017 2022
  • 6. In a decade, solar becomes competitive in almost every state
  • 7. Distributed Solar Potential at Parity with Utility Prices (megawatts of residential and commercial solar) 2012 3,500 1,200 Percent of Sales 56 1-5% 5-10% 500 10% or more
  • 8. Distributed Solar Potential at Parity with Utility Prices (megawatts of residential and commercial solar) 360 1140 1200 2022 700 20 580 2600 4400 1100 7200 4000 970 12,000 800 11,000 780 2900 11,000 72001800 2400 2300 5500 10,000 5100 1400 26,000 4800 11,000 990 19008200 4100 6800 3600 12,000 11,000 7300 5000 2800 1800 7000 5100 8500 16,000 7100 32,000 Percent of Sales 590 1-5% 30,000 5-10% 750 10% or more
  • 9. U.S. Year Residential Commercial 2012 14,800 5,500 Solar 2013 20,500 13,200 Parity 2014 2015 33,200 52,400 23,100 27,300 Potential 2016 75,000 33,000 2017 107,000 41,000 2018 130,000 53,700 2019 152,000 63,700 2020 175,000 80,800 2021 182,000 106,000 Installed today: 4,000 MW 2022 190,000 122,000 Megawatts
  • 10. Year Residential Commercial Solar Parity Potential 10% of U.S. electricity sales Installed today: 0.1% of electricity sales 2022 190,000 122,000 Megawatts
  • 11. How will we get there? www.ilsr.org/roofop-revolution/