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UK State of the Nation
May 2017
Martin Wood & Tim Eales
Strategic Insight – IRI UK
May 2017
Key dynamics within the grocery industry
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2
What this presentation will cover
1 Key retail drivers and metrics (Based on IRI InfoScan total Market Data)
2 Convenience sector trend review (Based on IRI Market Place Data)
3 Growth areas and outlook for 2017 (Based on IRI Retail Advantage Data)
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3
What this section will cover
1 Key retail drivers and metrics (Based on IRI InfoScan total Market Data)
2 Convenience sector trend review (Based on IRI Market Place Data)
3 Growth areas and outlook for 2017 (Based on IRI Retail Advantage Data)
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4
The UK Grocery industry is facing unprecedented change
Shoppers are looking for very specific product
attributes to satisfy a variety of need states
Bargain
savvy
shoppers
Top up
shopping
Smaller
households
Ageing
population
Less
waste
Online to
inform and
to shop
Discounter
growth
Price
Wars
Less trade
promotion
Store
closures
Cost
reduction
Range
reduction
-10%
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5
Key UK Retail Trends 2017
Convenience shopping is still increasing
Promotions are still reducing, especially multi-buy
Downward price pressure continues BUT…with the fall in the £
average prices are now rising
NPD has been impacted; distribution for NPD is falling and
manufacturers are launching less NPD
Major retailers are still cutting range across all fascia
Discounters are still expanding, but at a slower rate
Online sales are still revolutionising the way people shop
…as a result…
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Multibuy 13 12 8 -6 -28
Price Off 25 6 8 10 2
%Change
Percentage Change of Promotion Type by year
Sainsbury’s have had no Multibuys
since April ‘16
Multibuys
-567,000
Price Offs
+42,000
6.2%
Lowest percentage volume sales on
Multibuys – Jan and May ’17 @ 6.2%
15.4%
Oct ‘15 May ‘17
2016
Total count
-12%
The promotion landscape is changing – fewer promotions
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7
Year on year FMCG sales trends are impacted by the season and weather.
But overall in 2017 volumes are down and prices are rising.
SOURCE: IRI InfoScan Data to 20 May 2017
March and April
periods have been
averaged due to the
late Easter in 2017
UK FMCG sales
(Packaged Food, Pet Food, Confectionery, Drinks Inc. Alcohol, Health, Toiletry, Household)
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 8
Range reviews and reductions are still a key activity for retailers
Retailer range reductions
4 w/e Feb 17 vs. Feb 16
Major Multiples
Tesco
Asda
Sainsbury’s
Waitrose
Morrison’s
Wilko
Co-op
Iceland
Boots
Superdrug
Range has declined by 5.7% in the past year following a decline of 5.1% the previous year
– a two-year decline of 10.5%.
An average 930 actual item reduction for an average sized multiple store in the last year
and 1,820 over two years.
All products
Food
- Ambient Food
- Chilled Food
- Frozen Food
- Dairy
Soft Drinks
Confectionery
Household
Personal Care
OTC & Health
Beer/Lager/Cider
Wine
Spirits & RTD
Category range reductions
4 w/e Feb 17 vs. Feb 16
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 9
Value of Branded
NPD sales lost from
market
Branded NPD
contribution to overall
sales also fell from
The NEW IRI NPD study shows that the number of NPD brand
launches fell by 8.4% in the past 12 months
-8.4%
£99.6m*2.0%
y/e Feb
2017
vs.
y/e Feb
2016
* Before adjusting for effect of total market decline
to
 The fall in the number of
branded NPD launches in the IRI
Study.
 Own label down by only -2%. -6.5%
Branded NPD
absolute £ sales are
down
1.9%
Grocery including Beer & Sprits
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 10
What this section will cover
1 Key retail drivers and metrics (Based on IRI InfoScan total Market Data)
2 Convenience sector trend review (Based on IRI Market Place Data)
3 Growth areas and outlook for 2017 (Based on IRI Retail Advantage Data)
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11
Total convenience sales by convenience channel
+3.3%
-2.2%
-0.6%
+0.02%
Source: Convenience Market Place 52 w/e 26 Mar 2017 value sales vs year ago
All Market Place Packaged Food categories:
Tobacco, Alcohol, Confectionery, Soft Drinks, Milk, Bakery, Frozen, Ambient & Chilled Foods
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12
What are the key issues for the convenience sector?
Missions and
convenience
A range of
different
channels – one
size does not fit
all
Own Label and
need for brands
Range
rationalisation
Core must-stock
items
The challenge of
stock control
and availability
Membership
compliance and
incentives
(symbols
specific)
Promotional
depth and
coverage vs
supermarkets
Tobacco
legislationLiving Wage
Booker
acquisition
by Tesco
Business
rates rises
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 13
Convenience missions – five key trends
Decline in CTN
category sales
and as footfall
generator
Better
planned top-
ups
Improved food
to go demand
and offer
New non-food
footfall drivers
and revenue
generators
such as Collect
+, PayPoint
etc.
Changing meal
plan dynamics
1 2 3 4 5
Bigger
convenience
baskets
PHASE 05
Decline in
Paper
shops
(CTNs)
New
footfall
drivers
Food to Go Meal plans
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 14
Tobacco is still the biggest seller and footfall driver in convenience
outlets, compared with supermarket main shop
37.9%
27.8%
19.2%
8.0%
3.2%
2.9%
1.1%
Value Share by mission
Total Convenience
Channels
Smoking
Traditional
Impulse
BWS
Topup
Food to go
Food for Tonight
Frozen Meal Plan
SOURCE:IRI Market Place; Value Sales; 52 w/e 26 Mar 2017
8.0%
28.0
%
22.3
%
20.7
%
3.1%
10.4%
7.4%
Value Share by mission
Supermarket Main
Shop
All Market Place Packaged Food categories:
Tobacco, Alcohol, Confectionery, Soft Drinks, Milk, Bakery, Frozen, Ambient & Chilled Foods
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 15
% Change v Year Ago Value Sales Volume Sales Price Trend
SOURCE:IRI Convenience Market Place (Total GB Convenience); % Change vs Yr ago; 52 w/e 26 Mar 2017
Total Convenience Trend Latest year – Mission-Based
FOOD TO GO
BWS
TRADITIONAL IMPULSE
FROZEN MEAL PLAN
FOOD FOR TONIGHT
SMOKING
TOP UP
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 16
What’s driving absolute growth in High Street mult convenience outlets?
Category % Change £M Growth
Tobacco 4.3% £109.1
Alcohol 4.1% £84.6
Soft Drinks 4.4% £49.4
Food To Go 6.6% £36.0
Snacks 4.2% £19.0
Milk 3.8% £17.3
Ices 8.7% £10.7
Biscuits 5.3% £10.7
Hot Beverages 4.3% £6.2
Cake 3.4% £4.9
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 17
What this section will cover
1 Key retail drivers and metrics (Based on IRI InfoScan total Market Data)
2 Convenience sector trend review (Based on IRI Market Place Data)
3 Growth areas and outlook for 2017 (Based on IRI Retail Advantage Data)
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 18
Within the supermarkets rising average prices are adding value to a flat
volume grocery market; non-food is still in decline as ranges are cut
Total value
£83.4 Bn
YoY value growth
+£0.8 Bn
YoY % value growth
+1.0%
Total value
£31.0 Bn
YoY value growth
-£0.2 Bn
YoY % value growth
-0.5%
SOURCE:IRI Retail Advantage (top 9 UK Supermarkets) MAT to 6 May 2017
Grocery Non Food
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19
52 wk %
change
+0.2 +0.9 +3.1 +2.0 -2.9 +0.9 +2.8 +1.4 -1.2 +1.2 -2.7 -1.1 +0.2
12 wk %
change
+2.0 +2.2 +5.9 +3.7 -0.5 +3.0 +5.1 +2.2 +0.1 +2.6 -2.4 -1.7 +1.5
Value sales; Value Sales % change vs. Year Ago & vs. 12 wk ago
Declines in some non-food categories are offset by grocery price
inflation and volume growth in frozen and chilled categories. BWS is
also experiencing premiumisation.
SOURCE: Retail Advantage Top 9 Supermarkets; Value Sales; 52 w/e & 12w/e 6 May 2017
Grocery Non Food
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 20
So where will the growth come from in the future?
HEALTH CARE
Incontinence pads
Topical Analgesics
Smoking cessation
Paediatric Analgesics
IBS treatment
Vitamin D
Men’s vitamins
Children’s vitamins
Bone care vitamins
HEALTHY
Pouring yoghurt
Nuts
Non-dairy/light milk
Coconut water/milk
Peanut Butter
Halloumi/Mozzarella
Feta cheese
Fortified Water
Wholegrain Rice
Gluten Free
CONVENIENT
Chilled ready meals
Prepared fruit
Prepared fruit salad
Single serve coffee
Ice
Food to go
ON TREND
Prosecco
Bottled water
Juice smoothies
Popcorn
Ethical/Fairtrade
Vegan / Free-from
Juicing
Speciality Oil
Fresh Herbs
Coconut Oil
Online grocery
shopping set to
increase
Top up shopping
becoming more
important
Discounters
keep growing
Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 21
Do you need to know how any of these changes will affect you?
Martin Wood & Tim Eales
Martin.Wood@IRIworldwide.com
Tim.Eales@IRIworldwide.com
www.iriworldwide.com/en-GB/
For more information
and insight

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IRI UK FMCG snapshot

  • 1. UK State of the Nation May 2017 Martin Wood & Tim Eales Strategic Insight – IRI UK May 2017 Key dynamics within the grocery industry
  • 2. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2 What this presentation will cover 1 Key retail drivers and metrics (Based on IRI InfoScan total Market Data) 2 Convenience sector trend review (Based on IRI Market Place Data) 3 Growth areas and outlook for 2017 (Based on IRI Retail Advantage Data)
  • 3. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3 What this section will cover 1 Key retail drivers and metrics (Based on IRI InfoScan total Market Data) 2 Convenience sector trend review (Based on IRI Market Place Data) 3 Growth areas and outlook for 2017 (Based on IRI Retail Advantage Data)
  • 4. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4 The UK Grocery industry is facing unprecedented change Shoppers are looking for very specific product attributes to satisfy a variety of need states Bargain savvy shoppers Top up shopping Smaller households Ageing population Less waste Online to inform and to shop Discounter growth Price Wars Less trade promotion Store closures Cost reduction Range reduction -10%
  • 5. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5 Key UK Retail Trends 2017 Convenience shopping is still increasing Promotions are still reducing, especially multi-buy Downward price pressure continues BUT…with the fall in the £ average prices are now rising NPD has been impacted; distribution for NPD is falling and manufacturers are launching less NPD Major retailers are still cutting range across all fascia Discounters are still expanding, but at a slower rate Online sales are still revolutionising the way people shop …as a result…
  • 6. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Multibuy 13 12 8 -6 -28 Price Off 25 6 8 10 2 %Change Percentage Change of Promotion Type by year Sainsbury’s have had no Multibuys since April ‘16 Multibuys -567,000 Price Offs +42,000 6.2% Lowest percentage volume sales on Multibuys – Jan and May ’17 @ 6.2% 15.4% Oct ‘15 May ‘17 2016 Total count -12% The promotion landscape is changing – fewer promotions
  • 7. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7 Year on year FMCG sales trends are impacted by the season and weather. But overall in 2017 volumes are down and prices are rising. SOURCE: IRI InfoScan Data to 20 May 2017 March and April periods have been averaged due to the late Easter in 2017 UK FMCG sales (Packaged Food, Pet Food, Confectionery, Drinks Inc. Alcohol, Health, Toiletry, Household)
  • 8. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 8 Range reviews and reductions are still a key activity for retailers Retailer range reductions 4 w/e Feb 17 vs. Feb 16 Major Multiples Tesco Asda Sainsbury’s Waitrose Morrison’s Wilko Co-op Iceland Boots Superdrug Range has declined by 5.7% in the past year following a decline of 5.1% the previous year – a two-year decline of 10.5%. An average 930 actual item reduction for an average sized multiple store in the last year and 1,820 over two years. All products Food - Ambient Food - Chilled Food - Frozen Food - Dairy Soft Drinks Confectionery Household Personal Care OTC & Health Beer/Lager/Cider Wine Spirits & RTD Category range reductions 4 w/e Feb 17 vs. Feb 16
  • 9. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 9 Value of Branded NPD sales lost from market Branded NPD contribution to overall sales also fell from The NEW IRI NPD study shows that the number of NPD brand launches fell by 8.4% in the past 12 months -8.4% £99.6m*2.0% y/e Feb 2017 vs. y/e Feb 2016 * Before adjusting for effect of total market decline to  The fall in the number of branded NPD launches in the IRI Study.  Own label down by only -2%. -6.5% Branded NPD absolute £ sales are down 1.9% Grocery including Beer & Sprits
  • 10. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 10 What this section will cover 1 Key retail drivers and metrics (Based on IRI InfoScan total Market Data) 2 Convenience sector trend review (Based on IRI Market Place Data) 3 Growth areas and outlook for 2017 (Based on IRI Retail Advantage Data)
  • 11. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11 Total convenience sales by convenience channel +3.3% -2.2% -0.6% +0.02% Source: Convenience Market Place 52 w/e 26 Mar 2017 value sales vs year ago All Market Place Packaged Food categories: Tobacco, Alcohol, Confectionery, Soft Drinks, Milk, Bakery, Frozen, Ambient & Chilled Foods
  • 12. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12 What are the key issues for the convenience sector? Missions and convenience A range of different channels – one size does not fit all Own Label and need for brands Range rationalisation Core must-stock items The challenge of stock control and availability Membership compliance and incentives (symbols specific) Promotional depth and coverage vs supermarkets Tobacco legislationLiving Wage Booker acquisition by Tesco Business rates rises
  • 13. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 13 Convenience missions – five key trends Decline in CTN category sales and as footfall generator Better planned top- ups Improved food to go demand and offer New non-food footfall drivers and revenue generators such as Collect +, PayPoint etc. Changing meal plan dynamics 1 2 3 4 5 Bigger convenience baskets PHASE 05 Decline in Paper shops (CTNs) New footfall drivers Food to Go Meal plans
  • 14. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 14 Tobacco is still the biggest seller and footfall driver in convenience outlets, compared with supermarket main shop 37.9% 27.8% 19.2% 8.0% 3.2% 2.9% 1.1% Value Share by mission Total Convenience Channels Smoking Traditional Impulse BWS Topup Food to go Food for Tonight Frozen Meal Plan SOURCE:IRI Market Place; Value Sales; 52 w/e 26 Mar 2017 8.0% 28.0 % 22.3 % 20.7 % 3.1% 10.4% 7.4% Value Share by mission Supermarket Main Shop All Market Place Packaged Food categories: Tobacco, Alcohol, Confectionery, Soft Drinks, Milk, Bakery, Frozen, Ambient & Chilled Foods
  • 15. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 15 % Change v Year Ago Value Sales Volume Sales Price Trend SOURCE:IRI Convenience Market Place (Total GB Convenience); % Change vs Yr ago; 52 w/e 26 Mar 2017 Total Convenience Trend Latest year – Mission-Based FOOD TO GO BWS TRADITIONAL IMPULSE FROZEN MEAL PLAN FOOD FOR TONIGHT SMOKING TOP UP
  • 16. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 16 What’s driving absolute growth in High Street mult convenience outlets? Category % Change £M Growth Tobacco 4.3% £109.1 Alcohol 4.1% £84.6 Soft Drinks 4.4% £49.4 Food To Go 6.6% £36.0 Snacks 4.2% £19.0 Milk 3.8% £17.3 Ices 8.7% £10.7 Biscuits 5.3% £10.7 Hot Beverages 4.3% £6.2 Cake 3.4% £4.9
  • 17. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 17 What this section will cover 1 Key retail drivers and metrics (Based on IRI InfoScan total Market Data) 2 Convenience sector trend review (Based on IRI Market Place Data) 3 Growth areas and outlook for 2017 (Based on IRI Retail Advantage Data)
  • 18. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 18 Within the supermarkets rising average prices are adding value to a flat volume grocery market; non-food is still in decline as ranges are cut Total value £83.4 Bn YoY value growth +£0.8 Bn YoY % value growth +1.0% Total value £31.0 Bn YoY value growth -£0.2 Bn YoY % value growth -0.5% SOURCE:IRI Retail Advantage (top 9 UK Supermarkets) MAT to 6 May 2017 Grocery Non Food
  • 19. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19 52 wk % change +0.2 +0.9 +3.1 +2.0 -2.9 +0.9 +2.8 +1.4 -1.2 +1.2 -2.7 -1.1 +0.2 12 wk % change +2.0 +2.2 +5.9 +3.7 -0.5 +3.0 +5.1 +2.2 +0.1 +2.6 -2.4 -1.7 +1.5 Value sales; Value Sales % change vs. Year Ago & vs. 12 wk ago Declines in some non-food categories are offset by grocery price inflation and volume growth in frozen and chilled categories. BWS is also experiencing premiumisation. SOURCE: Retail Advantage Top 9 Supermarkets; Value Sales; 52 w/e & 12w/e 6 May 2017 Grocery Non Food
  • 20. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 20 So where will the growth come from in the future? HEALTH CARE Incontinence pads Topical Analgesics Smoking cessation Paediatric Analgesics IBS treatment Vitamin D Men’s vitamins Children’s vitamins Bone care vitamins HEALTHY Pouring yoghurt Nuts Non-dairy/light milk Coconut water/milk Peanut Butter Halloumi/Mozzarella Feta cheese Fortified Water Wholegrain Rice Gluten Free CONVENIENT Chilled ready meals Prepared fruit Prepared fruit salad Single serve coffee Ice Food to go ON TREND Prosecco Bottled water Juice smoothies Popcorn Ethical/Fairtrade Vegan / Free-from Juicing Speciality Oil Fresh Herbs Coconut Oil Online grocery shopping set to increase Top up shopping becoming more important Discounters keep growing
  • 21. Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 21 Do you need to know how any of these changes will affect you? Martin Wood & Tim Eales Martin.Wood@IRIworldwide.com Tim.Eales@IRIworldwide.com www.iriworldwide.com/en-GB/ For more information and insight