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WORLD SCENARIO SERIES
                                                        COMMITTED TO
                                                     IMPROVING THE STATE
                                                        OF THE WORLD




                        India and the World: Scenarios to 2025

                        Executive Summary
The views expressed in this publication do not
necessarily reflect the views of the World Economic
Forum or the Confederation of Indian Industry.




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Executive Summary




Bolly World




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India and the World: Scenarios to 2025




                                         Executive Summary
Executive Summary




                                         Few countries can boast the immense diversity         •   India and the world: How will India
                                         of India: among its 1 billion people, there are 18        take her place at the world table—
                                         main languages, 844 dialects and six main                 and how will the world
                                         religions. Rich in the traditions and learning of         accommodate the emergence of
                                         myriad ancient cultures, the sub-continent has            India as a global player? How will
                                         long been a place of pilgrimage for travellers.           the global environment change and
                                         Since India’s independence, ancient traditions            how might India respond?
                                         have increasingly converged with modern               •   Geopolitical stability: What
                                         influences, and India has become progressively            direction will the war on terror
                                         more internationally integrated.                          take? What will be the nature of
                                             Since the late 1940s the effects of                   India’s relationship with her
                                         government controls led observers to coin the             neighbouring countries? How will
                                         term “the Hindu rate of growth” to describe the           India ensure her energy security?
                                         country’s sluggish economic progress. However,        •   Employment and demographics:
                                         the reforms of the mid 1980s and early 1990s              How can India take advantage of
                                         sharpened the pace of change and, as                      her young and growing population
                                         globalization has advanced, prompted by rapid             and transform it into a
                                         technological developments, India has become              demographic bonus? Will the rising
                                         more significant in international markets. Now            aspirations of the young be met?
                                         many analysts are predicting India’s emergence as     •   Education: How can India maintain
                                         a global player, set to follow the blazing economic       and develop her educational
                                         success of another giant, China.                          excellence while making sure that
                                             It is not difficult to see the rationale behind       increasing numbers of young
                                         such optimism. Key trends that could drive and            people across India are equipped
                                         sustain these new dynamics include:                       with employable skills?
                                         •   Favourable demographics;                          •   Infrastructure: How will India
                                         •   A large pool of low cost, skilled                     develop adequate social and
                                             labour;                                               economic infrastructure that meet
                                         •   Entrepreneurial, indigenous                           the needs of both her people and
                                             companies;                                            developing industry?
                                         •   Continuing economic reforms and                   •   Leadership: Can India develop the
                                             global integration;                                   leadership necessary at all levels?
                                         •   A stable political regime and                         Will coalition politics continue to
                                             democracy;                                            constrain necessary reforms? Can
                                         •   A record of high, sustained growth                    national interests and self-interests
                                             rates.                                                be aligned?
                                                                                               •   Administrative and political reform:
                                         However, there are also major challenges that             Can India strengthen her ability to
                                         India must address if it is to achieve and                implement and execute the
                                         maintain this kind of growth and development,             necessary reforms and change?
    2                                    including:                                                Will India break the back of deeply
India and the World: Scenarios to 2025
                                                                                                                                                                         Executive Summary
    entrenched corruption and
                                                          Figure 1    India and the World: Scenarios to 2025
    bureaucracy?
•   Rural development: Is it possible
    for India to develop the rural sector
                                                                       Bolly World




                                                                                                         INTEGRATION WITH THE WORLD
    where the majority of her people
    reside? How will rural development




                                                                                                                                                                    ia
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    robustness of India’s economy? Can




                                                                                                                                                           Pa
    India manage the disparity between
    urban-rural communities, and
    between states?
                                                                      EXCLUSIVE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT                                INCLUSIVE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT



The Key Questions for the Scenarios
                                                                                                          ISOLATION FROM THE WORLD



From amidst the many challenges confronting
                                                              ?




India, the project’s participants identified two core
questions, the answers to which will shape the
                                                                                       at
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path of India in the next two decades:
                                                                                 ta
                                                                             ak




•   Can India engage the whole nation
                                                                            At




    in its quest for sustained security
    and prosperity?
•   How will India’s relationship with the
    world impact the Indian Agenda?                     This building of a broad-based economy
The project’s participants used these questions         provides sufficient internal strength to support
to build three different possible futures for “India    India’s ambitions to become a major world player.
and the World” over the next 20 years.                      However, a less benign future is also
    Different paths for India through to 2025           possible, especially if the international
are represented in figure 1.                            environment proves less supportive of India’s
    Can India continue with “business as usual”         aspirations. In Atakta Bharat ("India getting
— a path of rapid economic development that             stuck"), the global economy slows, offering few
benefits only a minority of the population? Bolly       benefits to India, while within India there is little
World is a story of how initial economic success        and uneven development.
becomes unsustainable, and domestic social and              Within the full document, available on our
demographic pressures soon trigger an                   website (www.weforum.org), these basic storylines
economic reversal.                                      are further developed and supported by detailed
    But need this happen? Could India achieve           modelling and additional analysis. “Shock boxes”
sustainable economic and social success?                on selected topics (analysing developments of
Pahale India ("India First") describes how a            unknown probability which if they happen would
widely shared vision for India’s future aligns          have tremendous impact) have also been included
national aspirations and creates common goals.          within the scenarios, and presented in creative
Everyone puts India first, determined that the          formats for further illumination of the key
entire nation will benefit from India’s development.    challenges.                                                                                                         3
Bolly World     “Bollywood” is the name given to the highly successful Indian
                                                         film industry, famous for its masala movies—melodramatic
                                                         extravaganzas with spectacular song and dance numbers. The
India and the World: Scenarios to 2025




                                                         title “Bolly World” reflects a future in which India’s leaders are
                                                         so dazzled by the immediate gains to be made in international
                                                         markets that they fail to implement much needed domestic
                                                         reforms.
                                                            The scenario is told as a conversation overheard on a
                                                         plane flying from Delhi to Dubai in 2025. A chartered
                                                         accountant tells his travelling companion why he thinks India
                                                         is no longer experiencing international success and is facing
                                                         so many problems. As he puts it, the situation “is just like
Executive Summary




                                                         Bollywood itself—once you get behind all the glitter and the
                                                         razzmatazz, you realize—the whole thing is just an illusion.”




                                         Pahale India    “Pahale India” means “India First” and this is reflected in the
                                                         scenario in at least three ways: 1) people from across India
                                                         put the needs of their community and country first; 2) India
                                                         emerges as a global economic leader; and 3) India’s dynamic
                                                         internal developments make it a source of inspiration for the
                                                         rest of the world.
                                                            This story is told by a successful Indian businesswoman at
                                                         the 40th India Economic Summit in 2025. Her keynote speech
                                                         explores the reasons for India’s remarkable success.




                                         Atakta Bharat   “Atakta Bharat” describes an India “getting stuck without
                                                         direction” reflecting the lack of unified action and absence of
                                                         effective leadership that, in this scenario, create a continuous
                                                         and cumulative source of problems for India.
                                                            The scenario is told as the transcript of a speech given at
                                                         the monthly forum of the Hyderabad GM Crop Collective. The
                                                         collective—a collaboration between the Hyderabad Farmers,
                                                         Seed Developers and Rural Workers Cooperatives—is an
                                                         example of one of the more positive responses made by some
                                                         Indians to the multitude of troubles facing India.
                                                            The speech itself also draws attention to the importance
                                                         of self-organization and self-help. Entitled “India’s last 20
                                                         years: Why we must help ourselves”, it explores how initial
                                                         well intentioned attempts at reform in India failed—because of
                                                         corruption, inadequate planning and insufficient political will.
    4                                                    The speaker raises a number of what he calls “if onlys” to
                                                         describe how India’s future could have been very different.
2005-2015: The lavish promises of international business          income groups hamper equitable growth. In many poorer
encourage the Indian government to make changes that              states, unemployed and disaffected youth join extreme
hasten immediate economic growth. Low operation costs             religious groups, take to petty crime, or are drawn to "sons
and cheap labour attract the investments of the international     of soil" type movements. These tendencies preoccupy




                                                                                                                                    India and the World: Scenarios to 2025
community—but these are concentrated in IT and upper-             policy-makers and governments at all levels, making it
end knowledge intensive sectors.                                  difficult for them to focus on measures to promote
    Anxious to hold the attention of global business, the         economic growth and equity.
Indian government follows its lead as it makes its own                A global economic downturn induces OECD countries
investments. Rural areas remain undeveloped and under-            to focus on efficiency and competition in domestic
funded and growing numbers of poor and unemployed are             industries. This causes greater unemployment in these
migrating into the cities, whose infrastructure cannot            economies, prompting multinationals to withdraw and
support them. India’s leaders discuss “the problem of             reduce international investment in India. Preoccupied with
poverty” but fail to make necessary reforms.                      behaving like a global power, India has neglected regional




                                                                                                                                    Executive Summary
                                                                  relationships and now cannot rely on them to bolster
2015–2025: Inadequate structural reforms mean much of             economic performance. Economic growth is insufficient to
the Indian economy faces constraints and the growth               alleviate chronic poverty or raise living standards. India's
momentum is unsustainable. Unreliable infrastructure, skill       initial successes in the first years of the new century now
shortages and growing disparities between regions and             seem like a dream.


2005-2015: The many diverse individuals and groups                Meanwhile, it manages its ambitions to become a global
fighting for India’s future align their energies and visions      power with sensitive handling of regional dynamics, carefully
behind a single goal: putting India first. Crucially, this        fostering constructive relationships with individual countries.
includes a new generation of leaders who push forward a
series of legislative and administrative reforms. Six key areas   2015-2025: The international environment gradually grows
needing urgent, large-scale investment are identified. They       less benign and the global economy slows. However,
become the cornerstone of a massive, countrywide                  because India has made adequate preparations—internally
campaign for change, known as “PAHALE: the Six Pillars of         in terms of reform and equitable distribution and externally in
India’s Future”:                                                  its international relationships—it sustains a robust level of
•   Poverty alleviation – basic needs for all                     development.
•   Agriculture and rural development                                 Over the 20 years of the scenario, India’s leadership and
•   Healthcare                                                    society build the capacity to implement reforms and sustain
•   Access to education                                           inclusive development across the country, taking advantage
•   Leapfrogging infrastructure constraints                       of its growing population. By 2025, India has been lifted by
•   Effective governance                                          a virtuous cycle of higher, sustained economic growth,
Burgeoning globalization provides a huge boost to the             balanced development and global integration, and is
Indian economy—the government balances the desire for             transformed into a significant, respected and responsible
immediate profit with more long-term development goals.           global power.




2005-2015: Despite endless committees and interminable            2015-2025: In the face of these escalating problems, the
conferences about India’s future, the Indian government fails     Indian government still cannot achieve consensus. The only
to take action to instigate reforms. Within India, this means     area they can agree on is the importance of raising military
a lack of infrastructure—inadequate roads; limited                spending as turmoil in surrounding countries increases. The
communications, healthcare and education systems; no              Indian people stop looking to the government for solutions
attention to water management—and growing disparities             and concentrate on finding their own means of survival.
between rich and poor. Rural areas remain undeveloped and         Corruption increases, as do conflicts—over resources, and
the numbers of poor and unemployed increase.                      religious and ethnic differences.
    The international environment is becoming increasingly            But some, like the Hyderabad GM Crop Collective, find
difficult: economic demands and domestic pressures mean           more peaceful and constructive ways to self-organize:
that the US is withdrawing from international engagements.        pooling knowledge and resources, reaching out to find
And the rest of the world seems to be following its example,      similar groups in other parts of the world. By 2025, it is
adopting increasingly protectionist policies. Gradually the       movements such as these that provide a glimmer of hope in
global economy slows. In this context, India is not a             what seems otherwise to be a bleak future for India.
tempting prospect for foreign investors who begin to pull
out, or choose other cheaper, less dangerous destinations.                                                                             5
Bolly World
India and the World: Scenarios to 2025




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Executive Summary




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                                                                                                                               At
                                             The Three Scenarios

                                             This table provides a comparison of some of the most important aspects of the scenarios, with
                                             more analysis presented in the Annex.


                                                                       Bolly World                         Pahale India                       Atakta Bharat

                                             Economic performance      Growth led by a few select          Broad-based, high growth           Low growth, with potential
                                                                       sectors, competitive in global      benefits majority and sustains     constrained by lacklustre global
                                                                       economy. Rural development          internal economic                  economy and domestic
                                                                       neglected.                          development, while enhancing       economic weakness.
                                                                                                           global economic integration.

                                             Social development        Unbalanced development              Balanced development. Access       Rural development neglected.
                                                                       driven by a few                     to opportunities for all,          People and communities must
                                                                       internationalized sectors and       benefiting majority, including     help themselves. In best cases
                                                                       states. High disparity across       women and the poor.                this leads to community self-
                                                                       states and regions.                                                    organization; in worst cases,
                                                                                                                                              corruption and violence.

                                             External relationships    Aspiration to be a major global     Proactive economic diplomacy.      Reactive foreign relations,
                                                                       player; neglects regional           Respected global player,           shaped by global environment
                                                                       relationships.                      ensuring peace and prosperity      and immediate neighbours.
                                                                                                           for South Asia and the world

                                             Leadership & governance   Oriented towards the self-          Leaders put India first, above     Dissatisfaction with ineffective
                                                                       interest of vocal and privileged    personal and sector interests.     national and state governance
                                                                       minorities. Highly opportunistic;   Aligned, effective and inclusive   means that people take care of
                                                                       lacking in long-term vision.        at all levels.                     themselves. Leaders emerge
                                                                                                                                              from within communities with
                                                                                                                                              varying results.




                                         6
India and the World: Scenarios to 2025
Annex: Comparing the Three Scenarios




                                                                                                                                                Annex: Comparing The Three Scenarios
                                                                 Figure A.1              World Growth
This section provides an overview of how some selected
economic and social indicators may evolve over time.                              World Real GDP Growth p.a. (moving 5-year averages)
This analysis is based on economic modelling and                                         Bolly World    Pahale India    Atakta Bharat




                                                                Percentages
analysis, to ensure plausibility and internal consistency of                  5

the various scenarios.                                                        4

                                                                              3
The selected indicators that we provide here include:
                                                                              2
i)   Global GDP growth
ii) India’s share of developing countries’                                    1
                                                                                   Actual                 Projected
     FDI inflows                                                              0
iii) India’s share of world trade                                                 1995        2000     2005      2010   2015      2020   2025

iv) India’s GDP growth                                           Source: Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF)

v) Change in poverty levels in India


Using the data                                                 i) Global GDP growth


The data provided above could be used for developing           A benign external environment enables economic
leading indicators to determine which of the three             growth in India in the first decade in Pahale India
scenarios is actually unfolding. Of course, users need to      and in Bolly World. Global growth peaks in 2008
bear in mind that the scenarios and the attendant              with a real GDP growth rate of 4.5% before slowing
analysis are descriptions of only a set of possible            down to a moderate growth of about 4% – still fairly
futures, as seen from the current perspective. They            high in historical terms. In Atakta Bharat, the
should not be seen as predictions or forecasts. Hence          international environment is difficult and increasingly
the data provided serves only as a guide and should be         so throughout the scenario period. Global growth
applied and monitored with careful judgment.                   slows gradually to as low as 2.5%.




                                                                                                                                                    7
India and the World: Scenarios to 2025
Annex: Comparing The Three Scenarios




                                              Figure A.2           Foreign Direct Investment                                      Figure A.3               India’s Exports

                                                               India’s Share in Developing Countries’ FDI Inflows                                    India’s Share of World Trade
                                                                      Bolly World    Pahale India      Atakta Bharat                                       Bolly World    Pahale India      Atakta Bharat




                                                                                                                                 Percentages
                                                                                                                                               14
                                             Percentages




                                                           5
                                                                                                                                                            Actual              Projected
                                                                                                                                               12
                                                           4
                                                                                                                                               10
                                                           3                                                                                    8
                                                                                                                                                6
                                                           2
                                                                                                                                                4
                                                           1
                                                                                                                                                2
                                                                   Actual                  Projected                                            0
                                                           0
                                                               1995         2000    2005       2010    2015      2020   2025                        1995        2000     2005      2010     2015      2020   2025

                                              Source: Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF)                                           Source: Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF)




                                           ii) India’s share of developing countries FDI                                       iii) India’s share of world trade


                                           India’s share in developing countries’ FDI rises                                    India’s share in world markets increases more than
                                           constantly in Pahale India, while in Bolly World, it drops                          seven-fold in Pahale India, driven by both services and
                                           after the first decade as India loses its attractiveness. In                        goods exports, while in Bolly World, the growth in
                                           Atakta Bharat, investor confidence is extremely low                                 market share tapers off in the second decade. In Atakta
                                           and the share drops steadily.                                                       Bharat, India’s trade share fails to improve in view of
                                                                                                                               the poor global environment and her inability to gain in
                                                                                                                               relative competitiveness.




                                       8
India and the World: Scenarios to 2025
                                                                                                                                                                      Annex: Comparing The Three Scenarios
  Figure A.4               Economic Growth in India                                    Figure A.5            Poverty

                    Real GDP Growth p.a. (moving 5-year averages)                                        Population Below National Poverty Line
                           Bolly World    Pahale India      Atakta Bharat                                   Bolly World    Pahale India   Atakta Bharat
                                                                                                               Average 2001-2005
 Percentages




               12
                                                                                      Percentages
                                                                                                    30
               10
                                                                                                    25
               8
                                                                                                    20
               6
                                                                                                    15
               4                                                                                    10
               2                                                                                     5
                     Actual                     Projected
               0                                                                                     0
                    1995        2000     2005      2010     2015      2020   2025                          2005-2010         2010-2015     2015-2020      2020-2025

  Source: Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF)                                            Source: National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER)




iv) India’s GDP growth                                                              v) Change in poverty levels in India


In Pahale India, despite the global downturn in the                                 The sustained and inclusive growth and development in
second decade, i.e., around 2016, India manages to                                  Pahale India allow India to reduce the poverty ratios by
maintain and even slightly increase its growth due to its                           two-thirds of its 2001-2005 average. In Bolly World,
improved competitiveness and growing internal                                       growth is still strong enough to cut the ratio in half,
demand. It moves steadily towards a growth rate of                                  while in Atakta Bharat, the poverty ratio is reduced by
10% per annum. In Bolly World, the slow down in                                     only one-third.
global demand in the second decade has a direct effect
on India’s exports and FDI inflow and thus on the GDP
growth, which goes back to the levels of the 1990s. In
Atakta Bharat, India is unable to benefit from the
difficult global environment or implement internal
reforms, and growth moves steadily back to the “Hindu
rate of growth” of the 1980s.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                9
COMMITTED TO
               IMPROVING THE STATE
                  OF THE WORLD




The World Economic Forum is an independent
international organization committed to improving
the state of the world by engaging leaders in
partnerships to shape global, regional and
industry agendas.

Incorporated as a foundation in 1971, and based
in Geneva, Switzerland, the World Economic
Forum is impartial and not-for-profit; it is tied to
no political, partisan or national interests.
(www.weforum.org)

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India @2025 Scenarios

  • 1. WORLD SCENARIO SERIES COMMITTED TO IMPROVING THE STATE OF THE WORLD India and the World: Scenarios to 2025 Executive Summary
  • 2. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Economic Forum or the Confederation of Indian Industry. World Economic Forum Confederation of Indian Industry 91-93 route de la Capite 23, Institutional Area CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Lodi Road Switzerland New Delhi 110 003 Tel.: +41 (0)22 869 1212 Tel.: 0091-11-24629994-7 Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744 E-mail: contact@weforum.org www.weforum.org © 2005 World Economic Forum All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system.
  • 3. Executive Summary Bolly World ia nd eI al h Pa at ar Bh a a kt At
  • 4. India and the World: Scenarios to 2025 Executive Summary Executive Summary Few countries can boast the immense diversity • India and the world: How will India of India: among its 1 billion people, there are 18 take her place at the world table— main languages, 844 dialects and six main and how will the world religions. Rich in the traditions and learning of accommodate the emergence of myriad ancient cultures, the sub-continent has India as a global player? How will long been a place of pilgrimage for travellers. the global environment change and Since India’s independence, ancient traditions how might India respond? have increasingly converged with modern • Geopolitical stability: What influences, and India has become progressively direction will the war on terror more internationally integrated. take? What will be the nature of Since the late 1940s the effects of India’s relationship with her government controls led observers to coin the neighbouring countries? How will term “the Hindu rate of growth” to describe the India ensure her energy security? country’s sluggish economic progress. However, • Employment and demographics: the reforms of the mid 1980s and early 1990s How can India take advantage of sharpened the pace of change and, as her young and growing population globalization has advanced, prompted by rapid and transform it into a technological developments, India has become demographic bonus? Will the rising more significant in international markets. Now aspirations of the young be met? many analysts are predicting India’s emergence as • Education: How can India maintain a global player, set to follow the blazing economic and develop her educational success of another giant, China. excellence while making sure that It is not difficult to see the rationale behind increasing numbers of young such optimism. Key trends that could drive and people across India are equipped sustain these new dynamics include: with employable skills? • Favourable demographics; • Infrastructure: How will India • A large pool of low cost, skilled develop adequate social and labour; economic infrastructure that meet • Entrepreneurial, indigenous the needs of both her people and companies; developing industry? • Continuing economic reforms and • Leadership: Can India develop the global integration; leadership necessary at all levels? • A stable political regime and Will coalition politics continue to democracy; constrain necessary reforms? Can • A record of high, sustained growth national interests and self-interests rates. be aligned? • Administrative and political reform: However, there are also major challenges that Can India strengthen her ability to India must address if it is to achieve and implement and execute the maintain this kind of growth and development, necessary reforms and change? 2 including: Will India break the back of deeply
  • 5. India and the World: Scenarios to 2025 Executive Summary entrenched corruption and Figure 1 India and the World: Scenarios to 2025 bureaucracy? • Rural development: Is it possible for India to develop the rural sector Bolly World INTEGRATION WITH THE WORLD where the majority of her people reside? How will rural development ia nd contribute to the strength and eI al h robustness of India’s economy? Can Pa India manage the disparity between urban-rural communities, and between states? EXCLUSIVE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT INCLUSIVE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT The Key Questions for the Scenarios ISOLATION FROM THE WORLD From amidst the many challenges confronting ? India, the project’s participants identified two core questions, the answers to which will shape the at ar Bh path of India in the next two decades: ta ak • Can India engage the whole nation At in its quest for sustained security and prosperity? • How will India’s relationship with the world impact the Indian Agenda? This building of a broad-based economy The project’s participants used these questions provides sufficient internal strength to support to build three different possible futures for “India India’s ambitions to become a major world player. and the World” over the next 20 years. However, a less benign future is also Different paths for India through to 2025 possible, especially if the international are represented in figure 1. environment proves less supportive of India’s Can India continue with “business as usual” aspirations. In Atakta Bharat ("India getting — a path of rapid economic development that stuck"), the global economy slows, offering few benefits only a minority of the population? Bolly benefits to India, while within India there is little World is a story of how initial economic success and uneven development. becomes unsustainable, and domestic social and Within the full document, available on our demographic pressures soon trigger an website (www.weforum.org), these basic storylines economic reversal. are further developed and supported by detailed But need this happen? Could India achieve modelling and additional analysis. “Shock boxes” sustainable economic and social success? on selected topics (analysing developments of Pahale India ("India First") describes how a unknown probability which if they happen would widely shared vision for India’s future aligns have tremendous impact) have also been included national aspirations and creates common goals. within the scenarios, and presented in creative Everyone puts India first, determined that the formats for further illumination of the key entire nation will benefit from India’s development. challenges. 3
  • 6. Bolly World “Bollywood” is the name given to the highly successful Indian film industry, famous for its masala movies—melodramatic extravaganzas with spectacular song and dance numbers. The India and the World: Scenarios to 2025 title “Bolly World” reflects a future in which India’s leaders are so dazzled by the immediate gains to be made in international markets that they fail to implement much needed domestic reforms. The scenario is told as a conversation overheard on a plane flying from Delhi to Dubai in 2025. A chartered accountant tells his travelling companion why he thinks India is no longer experiencing international success and is facing so many problems. As he puts it, the situation “is just like Executive Summary Bollywood itself—once you get behind all the glitter and the razzmatazz, you realize—the whole thing is just an illusion.” Pahale India “Pahale India” means “India First” and this is reflected in the scenario in at least three ways: 1) people from across India put the needs of their community and country first; 2) India emerges as a global economic leader; and 3) India’s dynamic internal developments make it a source of inspiration for the rest of the world. This story is told by a successful Indian businesswoman at the 40th India Economic Summit in 2025. Her keynote speech explores the reasons for India’s remarkable success. Atakta Bharat “Atakta Bharat” describes an India “getting stuck without direction” reflecting the lack of unified action and absence of effective leadership that, in this scenario, create a continuous and cumulative source of problems for India. The scenario is told as the transcript of a speech given at the monthly forum of the Hyderabad GM Crop Collective. The collective—a collaboration between the Hyderabad Farmers, Seed Developers and Rural Workers Cooperatives—is an example of one of the more positive responses made by some Indians to the multitude of troubles facing India. The speech itself also draws attention to the importance of self-organization and self-help. Entitled “India’s last 20 years: Why we must help ourselves”, it explores how initial well intentioned attempts at reform in India failed—because of corruption, inadequate planning and insufficient political will. 4 The speaker raises a number of what he calls “if onlys” to describe how India’s future could have been very different.
  • 7. 2005-2015: The lavish promises of international business income groups hamper equitable growth. In many poorer encourage the Indian government to make changes that states, unemployed and disaffected youth join extreme hasten immediate economic growth. Low operation costs religious groups, take to petty crime, or are drawn to "sons and cheap labour attract the investments of the international of soil" type movements. These tendencies preoccupy India and the World: Scenarios to 2025 community—but these are concentrated in IT and upper- policy-makers and governments at all levels, making it end knowledge intensive sectors. difficult for them to focus on measures to promote Anxious to hold the attention of global business, the economic growth and equity. Indian government follows its lead as it makes its own A global economic downturn induces OECD countries investments. Rural areas remain undeveloped and under- to focus on efficiency and competition in domestic funded and growing numbers of poor and unemployed are industries. This causes greater unemployment in these migrating into the cities, whose infrastructure cannot economies, prompting multinationals to withdraw and support them. India’s leaders discuss “the problem of reduce international investment in India. Preoccupied with poverty” but fail to make necessary reforms. behaving like a global power, India has neglected regional Executive Summary relationships and now cannot rely on them to bolster 2015–2025: Inadequate structural reforms mean much of economic performance. Economic growth is insufficient to the Indian economy faces constraints and the growth alleviate chronic poverty or raise living standards. India's momentum is unsustainable. Unreliable infrastructure, skill initial successes in the first years of the new century now shortages and growing disparities between regions and seem like a dream. 2005-2015: The many diverse individuals and groups Meanwhile, it manages its ambitions to become a global fighting for India’s future align their energies and visions power with sensitive handling of regional dynamics, carefully behind a single goal: putting India first. Crucially, this fostering constructive relationships with individual countries. includes a new generation of leaders who push forward a series of legislative and administrative reforms. Six key areas 2015-2025: The international environment gradually grows needing urgent, large-scale investment are identified. They less benign and the global economy slows. However, become the cornerstone of a massive, countrywide because India has made adequate preparations—internally campaign for change, known as “PAHALE: the Six Pillars of in terms of reform and equitable distribution and externally in India’s Future”: its international relationships—it sustains a robust level of • Poverty alleviation – basic needs for all development. • Agriculture and rural development Over the 20 years of the scenario, India’s leadership and • Healthcare society build the capacity to implement reforms and sustain • Access to education inclusive development across the country, taking advantage • Leapfrogging infrastructure constraints of its growing population. By 2025, India has been lifted by • Effective governance a virtuous cycle of higher, sustained economic growth, Burgeoning globalization provides a huge boost to the balanced development and global integration, and is Indian economy—the government balances the desire for transformed into a significant, respected and responsible immediate profit with more long-term development goals. global power. 2005-2015: Despite endless committees and interminable 2015-2025: In the face of these escalating problems, the conferences about India’s future, the Indian government fails Indian government still cannot achieve consensus. The only to take action to instigate reforms. Within India, this means area they can agree on is the importance of raising military a lack of infrastructure—inadequate roads; limited spending as turmoil in surrounding countries increases. The communications, healthcare and education systems; no Indian people stop looking to the government for solutions attention to water management—and growing disparities and concentrate on finding their own means of survival. between rich and poor. Rural areas remain undeveloped and Corruption increases, as do conflicts—over resources, and the numbers of poor and unemployed increase. religious and ethnic differences. The international environment is becoming increasingly But some, like the Hyderabad GM Crop Collective, find difficult: economic demands and domestic pressures mean more peaceful and constructive ways to self-organize: that the US is withdrawing from international engagements. pooling knowledge and resources, reaching out to find And the rest of the world seems to be following its example, similar groups in other parts of the world. By 2025, it is adopting increasingly protectionist policies. Gradually the movements such as these that provide a glimmer of hope in global economy slows. In this context, India is not a what seems otherwise to be a bleak future for India. tempting prospect for foreign investors who begin to pull out, or choose other cheaper, less dangerous destinations. 5
  • 8. Bolly World India and the World: Scenarios to 2025 ia nd eI al h Pa Executive Summary at ar Bh ta ak At The Three Scenarios This table provides a comparison of some of the most important aspects of the scenarios, with more analysis presented in the Annex. Bolly World Pahale India Atakta Bharat Economic performance Growth led by a few select Broad-based, high growth Low growth, with potential sectors, competitive in global benefits majority and sustains constrained by lacklustre global economy. Rural development internal economic economy and domestic neglected. development, while enhancing economic weakness. global economic integration. Social development Unbalanced development Balanced development. Access Rural development neglected. driven by a few to opportunities for all, People and communities must internationalized sectors and benefiting majority, including help themselves. In best cases states. High disparity across women and the poor. this leads to community self- states and regions. organization; in worst cases, corruption and violence. External relationships Aspiration to be a major global Proactive economic diplomacy. Reactive foreign relations, player; neglects regional Respected global player, shaped by global environment relationships. ensuring peace and prosperity and immediate neighbours. for South Asia and the world Leadership & governance Oriented towards the self- Leaders put India first, above Dissatisfaction with ineffective interest of vocal and privileged personal and sector interests. national and state governance minorities. Highly opportunistic; Aligned, effective and inclusive means that people take care of lacking in long-term vision. at all levels. themselves. Leaders emerge from within communities with varying results. 6
  • 9. India and the World: Scenarios to 2025 Annex: Comparing the Three Scenarios Annex: Comparing The Three Scenarios Figure A.1 World Growth This section provides an overview of how some selected economic and social indicators may evolve over time. World Real GDP Growth p.a. (moving 5-year averages) This analysis is based on economic modelling and Bolly World Pahale India Atakta Bharat Percentages analysis, to ensure plausibility and internal consistency of 5 the various scenarios. 4 3 The selected indicators that we provide here include: 2 i) Global GDP growth ii) India’s share of developing countries’ 1 Actual Projected FDI inflows 0 iii) India’s share of world trade 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 iv) India’s GDP growth Source: Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) v) Change in poverty levels in India Using the data i) Global GDP growth The data provided above could be used for developing A benign external environment enables economic leading indicators to determine which of the three growth in India in the first decade in Pahale India scenarios is actually unfolding. Of course, users need to and in Bolly World. Global growth peaks in 2008 bear in mind that the scenarios and the attendant with a real GDP growth rate of 4.5% before slowing analysis are descriptions of only a set of possible down to a moderate growth of about 4% – still fairly futures, as seen from the current perspective. They high in historical terms. In Atakta Bharat, the should not be seen as predictions or forecasts. Hence international environment is difficult and increasingly the data provided serves only as a guide and should be so throughout the scenario period. Global growth applied and monitored with careful judgment. slows gradually to as low as 2.5%. 7
  • 10. India and the World: Scenarios to 2025 Annex: Comparing The Three Scenarios Figure A.2 Foreign Direct Investment Figure A.3 India’s Exports India’s Share in Developing Countries’ FDI Inflows India’s Share of World Trade Bolly World Pahale India Atakta Bharat Bolly World Pahale India Atakta Bharat Percentages 14 Percentages 5 Actual Projected 12 4 10 3 8 6 2 4 1 2 Actual Projected 0 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) Source: Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) ii) India’s share of developing countries FDI iii) India’s share of world trade India’s share in developing countries’ FDI rises India’s share in world markets increases more than constantly in Pahale India, while in Bolly World, it drops seven-fold in Pahale India, driven by both services and after the first decade as India loses its attractiveness. In goods exports, while in Bolly World, the growth in Atakta Bharat, investor confidence is extremely low market share tapers off in the second decade. In Atakta and the share drops steadily. Bharat, India’s trade share fails to improve in view of the poor global environment and her inability to gain in relative competitiveness. 8
  • 11. India and the World: Scenarios to 2025 Annex: Comparing The Three Scenarios Figure A.4 Economic Growth in India Figure A.5 Poverty Real GDP Growth p.a. (moving 5-year averages) Population Below National Poverty Line Bolly World Pahale India Atakta Bharat Bolly World Pahale India Atakta Bharat Average 2001-2005 Percentages 12 Percentages 30 10 25 8 20 6 15 4 10 2 5 Actual Projected 0 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 Source: Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) Source: National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) iv) India’s GDP growth v) Change in poverty levels in India In Pahale India, despite the global downturn in the The sustained and inclusive growth and development in second decade, i.e., around 2016, India manages to Pahale India allow India to reduce the poverty ratios by maintain and even slightly increase its growth due to its two-thirds of its 2001-2005 average. In Bolly World, improved competitiveness and growing internal growth is still strong enough to cut the ratio in half, demand. It moves steadily towards a growth rate of while in Atakta Bharat, the poverty ratio is reduced by 10% per annum. In Bolly World, the slow down in only one-third. global demand in the second decade has a direct effect on India’s exports and FDI inflow and thus on the GDP growth, which goes back to the levels of the 1990s. In Atakta Bharat, India is unable to benefit from the difficult global environment or implement internal reforms, and growth moves steadily back to the “Hindu rate of growth” of the 1980s. 9
  • 12. COMMITTED TO IMPROVING THE STATE OF THE WORLD The World Economic Forum is an independent international organization committed to improving the state of the world by engaging leaders in partnerships to shape global, regional and industry agendas. Incorporated as a foundation in 1971, and based in Geneva, Switzerland, the World Economic Forum is impartial and not-for-profit; it is tied to no political, partisan or national interests. (www.weforum.org)