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Preface:  What Does India Look Like from Space?  At Night? Why? Source:  NASA (United States – National Aeronautics and Space Administration)
INTRODUCTION:   India Structural Framework and Forward Trends  . . .
The FUTURE (2020):  World Bank Projects India as #3 Economy in World GDP* PPP-adjusted 2009 GDP* France  EU-27          UK  6,4 trillionsde $ 3,6 trillionsde $ US  Germany Japan India   Japan China  $14.2 tr $4.1 tr $3.8 tr $9.1 tr $14.1 tr 2020 GDP* GDP* PPP-adjusted France           UK  EU-27 China US  Germany India  Japan $28.8 tr $30.0 tr $13.4 tr $6.8 tr $29.6 tr Source:  World Bank
India’s Middle Class:   45 million (2010)  …  100 million (2025)   Wealth Trend:  Forward Trend in Growing Middle Class Middle Class Income Bands for Urban Household  Urban Household Income     ( US $ - PPP - Adjusted )  Global >= US$ 22,158  Upper Middle Class >= US$ 11,079 - 22,158  Urban Population (millions) Lower Middle Class >= US$ 4,431 – 11,079  Poor <= US$ 4,431 Upper Middle Class Lower Middle Class Sources:  Urbanization Rates, Population based on UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2007; MGI Consumer Demand 2008
Urbanization Trend:  Forward Trend in Mass Migration into Cities India’s Urban Population:   340 million (2010)  …  465 million (2020)   India’s Urban Population Growth 1.5 billion 1.3 billion 1.2 billion 1.04billion Rural Population (million) 0.86 billion Urban Population (million) Urbanization Source:  World Urbanization Prospects 2007
Infrastructure Trend:  Can New Infrastructure Catalyze R&D & Manufacturing? Large-Scale Transportation Upgrades Catalyze Full Range of Investments Golden Quadrilateral North-South Corridor East-WestCorridor Srinagar Jammu Pathankot Ludhiana Chandigarh New Delhi Jaipur Agra Guwahati Lucknow Gwalior Kanpur Allahabad Kota Varanasi Udaipur Silchar Gandhinagar Ahmedabad Rajkot Vadodara Kolkata Porbandar Surat Baleshwar Nagpur Cuttack Mumbai Bhubaneshwar Pune Hyderabad Vishakapatnam Vijayawada Chennai Bangalore Coimbatore Kochi Madurai Source:  Exolus Research
Framework:  Resulting A-Cities (Highest Population / Foreign Investment) India’s Strengthening A-Cities Golden Quadrilateral North-South Corridor East-WestCorridor A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Srinagar Jammu Pathankot Ludhiana Chandigarh New Delhi Jaipur Agra Guwahati Lucknow Gwalior Kanpur Allahabad Kota Varanasi Udaipur Silchar Gandhinagar Ahmedabad Rajkot Vadodara Kolkata Porbandar Surat Baleshwar Nagpur Cuttack Mumbai Bhubaneshwar Pune Hyderabad Vishakapatnam Vijayawada Chennai Bangalore Coimbatore Kochi Madurai Source:  Exolus Research
Corporate Trends:   Structural Optimization  –  Innovation, Markets, Production
The Past:  OffshoringNon-CoreBusiness Processes to India Human Resources … Finance & Accounting … Procurement … IT 3. Markets 2. Knowledge REVENUE R&D INNOVATION Sales Engineering IT               HR Service 1. BPO/ITO Manufacturing F&A          Procure Distribution Sourcing Sales Production                       /Assembly R&D COST Back Office BPO/ITO 4. Resources DRIVING Shareholder Value
1. BPO/ITO:   India Global Leader in BPO / ITO  Success in BPO Leads to Oversubscription of Key Cities  Leading BPO Cities A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Next Tier BPO Cities Chandigarh Delhi Noida Faridabad Lucknow Gurgaon Jaipur Ahmedabad Vadodara Indore Kolkata Nagpur Bhubaneswar Mumbai Visakhapatnam Pune Hyderabad Bangalore Mangalore Chennai Coimbatore Tiruchirappalli Kochi Madurai Trivandrum Source:  NASSCOM
1. BPO/ITO:  … Explosive Growth of BPO and ITO Projected through 2020 IT-BPO Growth Rate @ 11.9% CAGR India IT-BPO Projected Growth                                      (2010 – 2020F)                                        Export Domestic 100% Increase USD Billion 96 bn 88 bn 81 bn 73 bn Source:  NASSCOM
1. BPO/ITO:  … and Drives Emergence of 25 New Cities for BPO New 2nd and 3rd Cities roughly 28% Cheaper than 1st Tier Cities Leading BPO Cities A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Next Tier BPO cities Srinagar Follower Cities Shimla Ludhiana Aspirant Cities Chandigarh Dehradun Delhi Noida Gangtok Faridabad Lucknow Gurgaon Guwahati Jaipur Kanpur Patna Siliguri Gwalior Varanasi Allahabad Ahmedabad Bhopal Ranchi Durgapur Vadodara Indore Kolkata Surat Nagpur Raipur Bhubaneswar Nashik Aurangabad Mumbai Visakhapatnam Pune Hyderabad Vijayawada Goa Hubli-Dharwad Bangalore Mangalore Chennai Pondicherry Mysore Salem Coimbatore Tiruchirappalli Kochi Madurai Trivandrum Source:  NASSCOM
The Transition:  Offshoringnow up Value Chain to Core Business Processes Research & Development  … Sales / Marketing … Production / Manufacturing 3. Markets 2. Knowledge REVENUE R&D INNOVATION Sales Engineering IT               HR Service Manufacturing F&A          Procure Distribution Sourcing Sales  Production                       /Assembly R&D COST Back Office BPO/ITO 4. Resources DRIVING Shareholder Value
The Future:  … and Outsourcing Core Processes to 3rd Party Providers Contract Outsourcing:   R&D (CRO/KPO) … Sales (CSO) … Manufacturing (CMO) 3. Markets 2. Knowledge CSO R&D CRO/KPO Sales Engineering IT               HR Service Virtually Integrated Model CMO F&A          Procure Distribution Sourcing CSO Production                       /Assembly CRO/KPO CMO Back Office BPO/ITO 4. Resources DRIVING Shareholder Value
2. Innovation:  Big Pharma Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India Evolving Biopharmaceutical Innovation Clusters A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Jammu / Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Punjab Uttarakhand Haryana Arunachal Pradesh New Delhi New Delhi Sikkim Uttar Pradesh Gurgaon Rajasthan Assam Meghalaya Bihar Manipur Tripura Jharkhand Mizoram Madhya Pradesh Gujarat West Bengal Kolkata Chhattisgarh Orissa Maharashtra Mumbai Pune Hyderabad Andhra Pradesh Goa Karnataka Bangalore Tamil Nadu Kerala Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website
2. Innovation:  Technology Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India Evolving Technology Innovation Clusters A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Jammu / Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Punjab Uttarakhand Haryana Arunachal Pradesh New Delhi Sikkim Noida Rajasthan Assam Uttar Pradesh Meghalaya Bihar Tripura Jharkhand Mizoram Madhya Pradesh Gujarat West Bengal Kolkata Chhattisgarh Maharashtra Pune Hyderabad Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Bangalore Tamil Nadu Kerala Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website
2. Innovation:  Automotive Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India Evolving Automotive Innovation Clusters A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Jammu / Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Punjab Uttarakhand Haryana Arunachal Pradesh New Delhi Sikkim Rajasthan Assam Uttar Pradesh Meghalaya Bihar Tripura Jharkhand Mizoram Madhya Pradesh Gujarat West Bengal Kolkata Chhattisgarh Maharashtra Mumbai Hyderabad Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Bangalore Chennai Tamil Nadu Kerala Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website
2. Innovation:  Chemical-Based Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India Evolving Chemical Innovation Clusters A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Jammu / Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Punjab Uttarakhand Haryana Arunachal Pradesh New Delhi Sikkim Gurgaon Rajasthan Assam Uttar Pradesh Meghalaya Bihar Tripura Jharkhand Mizoram Madhya Pradesh Gujarat West Bengal Kolkata Chhattisgarh Vadodara Maharashtra Mumbai Pune Hyderabad Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Bangalore Tamil Nadu Kerala Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website
3. Market/Revenues:  Car Sales Proxy for Directional Market Sizing? Car Penetration Highest in India Risking Steeply India Car Penetration in BRIC                                                                 (units per 1,000 people) Russia Car Penetration in India                                                (units per 1,000 people) Brazil China Sources: Association of European Business; Autostat;; Other
USD28 billion Market by 2015 … 9th in World 3. Market:  India Projected to be World’s 9th Largest Pharma Market by 2015 Pharmaceutical Market Size Country Ranking      (USD billion) Sources:  IMS; GSK, “Assessment of Opportunity for Pharmaceutical Manufacturers in Emerging Markets” JMCP; Monitor Analysis; Exolus
3. Market:  High Spending Continues through Global Economic Crisis Sales Growing at 8.7% CAGR Retail Sales                                                                                (2003 – 2015F)                                        USD Billion CAGR = 8.7% Source:  EIU; Business Monitor International
3. Market:  Significant Income Stratification Trends across India Wealth Bands Emerging across Country India Per Capita GDP (USD, PPP-Adjusted) Per Capita GDP (USD, PPP-Adjusted) Jammu/Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Uttarakhand Punjab Haryana Sikkim Arunachal Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Rajasthan Assam New Delhi Bihar Meghalaya Nagaland Jharkhand Tripura Gujarat West Bengal Madhya Pradesh Manipur Chhattisgarh Mizoram Orissa Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh Goa Karnataka Tamil Nadu Kerala Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation: CIA World Factbook; Exolus Research
4. Production:  … but can India’s Infrastructure Support Manufacturing? India’s Major Investment in Transportation Infrastructure Golden Quadrilateral North-South Corridor East-WestCorridor A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Srinagar Jammu Pathankot Ludhiana Chandigarh New Delhi Jaipur Agra Guwahati Lucknow Gwalior Kanpur Allahabad Kota Varanasi Kota Udaipur Silchar Gandhinagar Ahmedabad Rajkot Vadodara Kolkata Porbandar Surat Baleshwar Nagpur Cuttack Mumbai Bhubaneshwar Pune Hyderabad Vishakapatnam Vijayawada Chennai Bangalore Coimbatore Kochi Madurai Source:  Exolus Research
4. Production:  India FDI Soars through Crisis, Strong Vote of Confidence FDI has Spiked in India … Sustained through Global Economic Crisis Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (1990 – 2010)                                        USD Billion Source: World Bank Database
4. Production:  Explosive Automotive Production Deployment to India Automotive Production Clusters Cities within cluster:  New Delhi, Gurgaon, Noida, Ghaziabad, Ludhiana, Haridwar A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Srinagar Jammu Pathankot Ludhiana Chandigarh New Delhi Cities within cluster: Baroda, Halol, Mumbai, Pune, Nasik, Aurangabad Jaipur Agra Guwahati Lucknow Gwalior Kanpur Allahabad Kota Varanasi Udaipur Silchar Gandhinagar Ahmedabad Cities within cluster: Kolkata Rajkot Vadodara Kolkata Porbandar Surat Baleshwar Nagpur Cuttack Mumbai Bhubaneshwar Pune Hyderabad Cities within cluster: Bangalore, Chennai, Hosur Vishakapatnam Vijayawada Mangalore Chennai Bangalore Coimbatore Kochi Madurai Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites
4. Production:  Big Pharma Production Deploying to India Biotechnology and Biopharmaceutical Production Clusters A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Srinagar Jammu Pathankot Ludhiana Chandigarh New Delhi Jaipur Agra Guwahati Lucknow Gwalior Kanpur Allahabad Kota Varanasi Udaipur Silchar Gandhinagar Ahmedabad Rajkot Vadodara Kolkata Porbandar Surat Baleshwar Nagpur Cities within cluster: Bangalore, Chennai Cities within cluster: Goa, Mumbai,  daman, Nasik, Thane, Aurangabad Cities within cluster: Baroda, Ankleshwar Ahmedabad,  Cities within cluster: Manesar, Jammu, Baddi, Pantnagar Cuttack Mumbai Bhubaneshwar Pune Hyderabad Vishakapatnam Vijayawada Mangalore Chennai Bangalore Coimbatore Kochi Madurai Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites
4. Production:  Technology Production Deploying to India Technology Hardware Production Clusters A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Cities within cluster:  Kolkata  Srinagar Cities within cluster: Bangalore, Chennai Jammu Cities within cluster: Baddi, Mansear  Pathankot Ludhiana Chandigarh New Delhi Jaipur Agra Guwahati Lucknow Gwalior Kanpur Allahabad Kota Varanasi Udaipur Silchar Gandhinagar Ahmedabad Rajkot Vadodara Kolkata Porbandar Surat Baleshwar Nagpur Cities within cluster: Pune, Hyderabad Cuttack Mumbai Bhubaneshwar Pune Hyderabad Vishakapatnam Vijayawada Mangalore Chennai Bangalore Coimbatore Kochi Madurai Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites
Future:  Where are Pareto-Optimal Market/Resource/Innovation Envelopes? Intersection of  Wealth + Production Clusters + R&D Hubs + A-Cities Per Capita GDP (USD, PPP-Adjusted) Per Capita GDP (USD, PPP-Adjusted) A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Jammu / Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Uttarakhand Punjab Arunachal Pradesh Haryana New Delhi Sikkim Noida Gurgaon Rajasthan Assam Uttar Pradesh Nagaland Innovation Hub Bihar Manipur Meghalaya Production Cluster Jharkhand Tripura Gujarat Mizoram Madhya Pradesh West Bengal Chhattisgarh Orissa Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh Goa Karnataka Tamil Nadu Kerala Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation: CIA World Factbook; Exolus Research
India’s Economic Health
Senior Executives Select India as Attractive Destination India Top-3 Investment Destination in World Top 14 Most Attractive Destinations for Future Investment (2009 – 2011) %  Percent of Responses Source:  World Investment Prospects 2009 - 2011
India Economic Outlook:  Large Forex Reserves, Healthy Banking System World’s 7th Largest Forex Reserves …   Low Non-Performance Loan …   Healthy CAGR ,[object Object]
In 2011 the Central Bank has accumulated over USD 316 billion in foreign reserves, from USD 38 billions in year 2000 at CAGR 23.6%.
The accumulation of large external surplus means financial system enjoys abundant liquidity.
Low Bank Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans
Bank non-performing loans decreased to 2% in 2010, from 13% in 2000.

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Copyright: What Creators and Users of Art Need to Know
 

India 2020: What India will Look Like in the Future

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  • 2. Preface: What Does India Look Like from Space? At Night? Why? Source: NASA (United States – National Aeronautics and Space Administration)
  • 3. INTRODUCTION: India Structural Framework and Forward Trends . . .
  • 4. The FUTURE (2020): World Bank Projects India as #3 Economy in World GDP* PPP-adjusted 2009 GDP* France EU-27 UK 6,4 trillionsde $ 3,6 trillionsde $ US Germany Japan India Japan China $14.2 tr $4.1 tr $3.8 tr $9.1 tr $14.1 tr 2020 GDP* GDP* PPP-adjusted France UK EU-27 China US Germany India Japan $28.8 tr $30.0 tr $13.4 tr $6.8 tr $29.6 tr Source: World Bank
  • 5. India’s Middle Class: 45 million (2010) … 100 million (2025) Wealth Trend: Forward Trend in Growing Middle Class Middle Class Income Bands for Urban Household Urban Household Income ( US $ - PPP - Adjusted ) Global >= US$ 22,158 Upper Middle Class >= US$ 11,079 - 22,158 Urban Population (millions) Lower Middle Class >= US$ 4,431 – 11,079 Poor <= US$ 4,431 Upper Middle Class Lower Middle Class Sources: Urbanization Rates, Population based on UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2007; MGI Consumer Demand 2008
  • 6. Urbanization Trend: Forward Trend in Mass Migration into Cities India’s Urban Population: 340 million (2010) … 465 million (2020) India’s Urban Population Growth 1.5 billion 1.3 billion 1.2 billion 1.04billion Rural Population (million) 0.86 billion Urban Population (million) Urbanization Source: World Urbanization Prospects 2007
  • 7. Infrastructure Trend: Can New Infrastructure Catalyze R&D & Manufacturing? Large-Scale Transportation Upgrades Catalyze Full Range of Investments Golden Quadrilateral North-South Corridor East-WestCorridor Srinagar Jammu Pathankot Ludhiana Chandigarh New Delhi Jaipur Agra Guwahati Lucknow Gwalior Kanpur Allahabad Kota Varanasi Udaipur Silchar Gandhinagar Ahmedabad Rajkot Vadodara Kolkata Porbandar Surat Baleshwar Nagpur Cuttack Mumbai Bhubaneshwar Pune Hyderabad Vishakapatnam Vijayawada Chennai Bangalore Coimbatore Kochi Madurai Source: Exolus Research
  • 8. Framework: Resulting A-Cities (Highest Population / Foreign Investment) India’s Strengthening A-Cities Golden Quadrilateral North-South Corridor East-WestCorridor A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Srinagar Jammu Pathankot Ludhiana Chandigarh New Delhi Jaipur Agra Guwahati Lucknow Gwalior Kanpur Allahabad Kota Varanasi Udaipur Silchar Gandhinagar Ahmedabad Rajkot Vadodara Kolkata Porbandar Surat Baleshwar Nagpur Cuttack Mumbai Bhubaneshwar Pune Hyderabad Vishakapatnam Vijayawada Chennai Bangalore Coimbatore Kochi Madurai Source: Exolus Research
  • 9. Corporate Trends: Structural Optimization – Innovation, Markets, Production
  • 10. The Past: OffshoringNon-CoreBusiness Processes to India Human Resources … Finance & Accounting … Procurement … IT 3. Markets 2. Knowledge REVENUE R&D INNOVATION Sales Engineering IT HR Service 1. BPO/ITO Manufacturing F&A Procure Distribution Sourcing Sales Production /Assembly R&D COST Back Office BPO/ITO 4. Resources DRIVING Shareholder Value
  • 11. 1. BPO/ITO: India Global Leader in BPO / ITO Success in BPO Leads to Oversubscription of Key Cities Leading BPO Cities A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Next Tier BPO Cities Chandigarh Delhi Noida Faridabad Lucknow Gurgaon Jaipur Ahmedabad Vadodara Indore Kolkata Nagpur Bhubaneswar Mumbai Visakhapatnam Pune Hyderabad Bangalore Mangalore Chennai Coimbatore Tiruchirappalli Kochi Madurai Trivandrum Source: NASSCOM
  • 12. 1. BPO/ITO: … Explosive Growth of BPO and ITO Projected through 2020 IT-BPO Growth Rate @ 11.9% CAGR India IT-BPO Projected Growth (2010 – 2020F) Export Domestic 100% Increase USD Billion 96 bn 88 bn 81 bn 73 bn Source: NASSCOM
  • 13. 1. BPO/ITO: … and Drives Emergence of 25 New Cities for BPO New 2nd and 3rd Cities roughly 28% Cheaper than 1st Tier Cities Leading BPO Cities A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Next Tier BPO cities Srinagar Follower Cities Shimla Ludhiana Aspirant Cities Chandigarh Dehradun Delhi Noida Gangtok Faridabad Lucknow Gurgaon Guwahati Jaipur Kanpur Patna Siliguri Gwalior Varanasi Allahabad Ahmedabad Bhopal Ranchi Durgapur Vadodara Indore Kolkata Surat Nagpur Raipur Bhubaneswar Nashik Aurangabad Mumbai Visakhapatnam Pune Hyderabad Vijayawada Goa Hubli-Dharwad Bangalore Mangalore Chennai Pondicherry Mysore Salem Coimbatore Tiruchirappalli Kochi Madurai Trivandrum Source: NASSCOM
  • 14. The Transition: Offshoringnow up Value Chain to Core Business Processes Research & Development … Sales / Marketing … Production / Manufacturing 3. Markets 2. Knowledge REVENUE R&D INNOVATION Sales Engineering IT HR Service Manufacturing F&A Procure Distribution Sourcing Sales Production /Assembly R&D COST Back Office BPO/ITO 4. Resources DRIVING Shareholder Value
  • 15. The Future: … and Outsourcing Core Processes to 3rd Party Providers Contract Outsourcing: R&D (CRO/KPO) … Sales (CSO) … Manufacturing (CMO) 3. Markets 2. Knowledge CSO R&D CRO/KPO Sales Engineering IT HR Service Virtually Integrated Model CMO F&A Procure Distribution Sourcing CSO Production /Assembly CRO/KPO CMO Back Office BPO/ITO 4. Resources DRIVING Shareholder Value
  • 16. 2. Innovation: Big Pharma Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India Evolving Biopharmaceutical Innovation Clusters A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Jammu / Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Punjab Uttarakhand Haryana Arunachal Pradesh New Delhi New Delhi Sikkim Uttar Pradesh Gurgaon Rajasthan Assam Meghalaya Bihar Manipur Tripura Jharkhand Mizoram Madhya Pradesh Gujarat West Bengal Kolkata Chhattisgarh Orissa Maharashtra Mumbai Pune Hyderabad Andhra Pradesh Goa Karnataka Bangalore Tamil Nadu Kerala Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website
  • 17. 2. Innovation: Technology Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India Evolving Technology Innovation Clusters A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Jammu / Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Punjab Uttarakhand Haryana Arunachal Pradesh New Delhi Sikkim Noida Rajasthan Assam Uttar Pradesh Meghalaya Bihar Tripura Jharkhand Mizoram Madhya Pradesh Gujarat West Bengal Kolkata Chhattisgarh Maharashtra Pune Hyderabad Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Bangalore Tamil Nadu Kerala Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website
  • 18. 2. Innovation: Automotive Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India Evolving Automotive Innovation Clusters A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Jammu / Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Punjab Uttarakhand Haryana Arunachal Pradesh New Delhi Sikkim Rajasthan Assam Uttar Pradesh Meghalaya Bihar Tripura Jharkhand Mizoram Madhya Pradesh Gujarat West Bengal Kolkata Chhattisgarh Maharashtra Mumbai Hyderabad Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Bangalore Chennai Tamil Nadu Kerala Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website
  • 19. 2. Innovation: Chemical-Based Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India Evolving Chemical Innovation Clusters A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Jammu / Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Punjab Uttarakhand Haryana Arunachal Pradesh New Delhi Sikkim Gurgaon Rajasthan Assam Uttar Pradesh Meghalaya Bihar Tripura Jharkhand Mizoram Madhya Pradesh Gujarat West Bengal Kolkata Chhattisgarh Vadodara Maharashtra Mumbai Pune Hyderabad Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Bangalore Tamil Nadu Kerala Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website
  • 20. 3. Market/Revenues: Car Sales Proxy for Directional Market Sizing? Car Penetration Highest in India Risking Steeply India Car Penetration in BRIC (units per 1,000 people) Russia Car Penetration in India (units per 1,000 people) Brazil China Sources: Association of European Business; Autostat;; Other
  • 21. USD28 billion Market by 2015 … 9th in World 3. Market: India Projected to be World’s 9th Largest Pharma Market by 2015 Pharmaceutical Market Size Country Ranking (USD billion) Sources: IMS; GSK, “Assessment of Opportunity for Pharmaceutical Manufacturers in Emerging Markets” JMCP; Monitor Analysis; Exolus
  • 22. 3. Market: High Spending Continues through Global Economic Crisis Sales Growing at 8.7% CAGR Retail Sales (2003 – 2015F) USD Billion CAGR = 8.7% Source: EIU; Business Monitor International
  • 23. 3. Market: Significant Income Stratification Trends across India Wealth Bands Emerging across Country India Per Capita GDP (USD, PPP-Adjusted) Per Capita GDP (USD, PPP-Adjusted) Jammu/Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Uttarakhand Punjab Haryana Sikkim Arunachal Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Rajasthan Assam New Delhi Bihar Meghalaya Nagaland Jharkhand Tripura Gujarat West Bengal Madhya Pradesh Manipur Chhattisgarh Mizoram Orissa Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh Goa Karnataka Tamil Nadu Kerala Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation: CIA World Factbook; Exolus Research
  • 24. 4. Production: … but can India’s Infrastructure Support Manufacturing? India’s Major Investment in Transportation Infrastructure Golden Quadrilateral North-South Corridor East-WestCorridor A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Srinagar Jammu Pathankot Ludhiana Chandigarh New Delhi Jaipur Agra Guwahati Lucknow Gwalior Kanpur Allahabad Kota Varanasi Kota Udaipur Silchar Gandhinagar Ahmedabad Rajkot Vadodara Kolkata Porbandar Surat Baleshwar Nagpur Cuttack Mumbai Bhubaneshwar Pune Hyderabad Vishakapatnam Vijayawada Chennai Bangalore Coimbatore Kochi Madurai Source: Exolus Research
  • 25. 4. Production: India FDI Soars through Crisis, Strong Vote of Confidence FDI has Spiked in India … Sustained through Global Economic Crisis Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (1990 – 2010) USD Billion Source: World Bank Database
  • 26. 4. Production: Explosive Automotive Production Deployment to India Automotive Production Clusters Cities within cluster: New Delhi, Gurgaon, Noida, Ghaziabad, Ludhiana, Haridwar A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Srinagar Jammu Pathankot Ludhiana Chandigarh New Delhi Cities within cluster: Baroda, Halol, Mumbai, Pune, Nasik, Aurangabad Jaipur Agra Guwahati Lucknow Gwalior Kanpur Allahabad Kota Varanasi Udaipur Silchar Gandhinagar Ahmedabad Cities within cluster: Kolkata Rajkot Vadodara Kolkata Porbandar Surat Baleshwar Nagpur Cuttack Mumbai Bhubaneshwar Pune Hyderabad Cities within cluster: Bangalore, Chennai, Hosur Vishakapatnam Vijayawada Mangalore Chennai Bangalore Coimbatore Kochi Madurai Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites
  • 27. 4. Production: Big Pharma Production Deploying to India Biotechnology and Biopharmaceutical Production Clusters A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Srinagar Jammu Pathankot Ludhiana Chandigarh New Delhi Jaipur Agra Guwahati Lucknow Gwalior Kanpur Allahabad Kota Varanasi Udaipur Silchar Gandhinagar Ahmedabad Rajkot Vadodara Kolkata Porbandar Surat Baleshwar Nagpur Cities within cluster: Bangalore, Chennai Cities within cluster: Goa, Mumbai, daman, Nasik, Thane, Aurangabad Cities within cluster: Baroda, Ankleshwar Ahmedabad, Cities within cluster: Manesar, Jammu, Baddi, Pantnagar Cuttack Mumbai Bhubaneshwar Pune Hyderabad Vishakapatnam Vijayawada Mangalore Chennai Bangalore Coimbatore Kochi Madurai Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites
  • 28. 4. Production: Technology Production Deploying to India Technology Hardware Production Clusters A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Cities within cluster: Kolkata Srinagar Cities within cluster: Bangalore, Chennai Jammu Cities within cluster: Baddi, Mansear Pathankot Ludhiana Chandigarh New Delhi Jaipur Agra Guwahati Lucknow Gwalior Kanpur Allahabad Kota Varanasi Udaipur Silchar Gandhinagar Ahmedabad Rajkot Vadodara Kolkata Porbandar Surat Baleshwar Nagpur Cities within cluster: Pune, Hyderabad Cuttack Mumbai Bhubaneshwar Pune Hyderabad Vishakapatnam Vijayawada Mangalore Chennai Bangalore Coimbatore Kochi Madurai Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites
  • 29. Future: Where are Pareto-Optimal Market/Resource/Innovation Envelopes? Intersection of Wealth + Production Clusters + R&D Hubs + A-Cities Per Capita GDP (USD, PPP-Adjusted) Per Capita GDP (USD, PPP-Adjusted) A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI Jammu / Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Uttarakhand Punjab Arunachal Pradesh Haryana New Delhi Sikkim Noida Gurgaon Rajasthan Assam Uttar Pradesh Nagaland Innovation Hub Bihar Manipur Meghalaya Production Cluster Jharkhand Tripura Gujarat Mizoram Madhya Pradesh West Bengal Chhattisgarh Orissa Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh Goa Karnataka Tamil Nadu Kerala Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation: CIA World Factbook; Exolus Research
  • 31. Senior Executives Select India as Attractive Destination India Top-3 Investment Destination in World Top 14 Most Attractive Destinations for Future Investment (2009 – 2011) % Percent of Responses Source: World Investment Prospects 2009 - 2011
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  • 33. In 2011 the Central Bank has accumulated over USD 316 billion in foreign reserves, from USD 38 billions in year 2000 at CAGR 23.6%.
  • 34. The accumulation of large external surplus means financial system enjoys abundant liquidity.
  • 35. Low Bank Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans
  • 36. Bank non-performing loans decreased to 2% in 2010, from 13% in 2000.
  • 37. Robust Growth in India’s Banking System
  • 38. Commercial bank deposits in India increased at CARG 18.5% from 2001 to 2009.
  • 39. Commercial bank credit in India grew at CARG at 23% from 2001 to 2009 Source: RBI
  • 40. For a Comparative Perspective with the other BRIC Countries Please Refer to the Following Research Reports Found on Slideshare @ http://www.slideshare.net/contest/worlds-best-presentation-contest-2010/entries http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/brazil-2020-what-will-brazil-look-like-in-the-future http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/russia-2020-what-will-russia-look-like-in-the-future Download Reports @ www.exolus.com/en/knowledge/research.html Russia 2020 Brazil 2020 China 2020
  • 41. Global Expansion Strategy & Cross-Border Investment Execution (Greenfield, M&A, Joint Ventures, Outsourcing) About Exolus: Exolus is a hybrid management consulting and transaction advisory firm. We work with management teams in the development of their global expansion strategies, across the range of investment formats: Greenfield, M&A, Joint Ventures and Outsourcing. As well, we deploy against global strategies by providing program management across all phases of cross-border investment projects, from candidate searches and evaluation, through investment structuring and negotiations. The founders of Exolushave spent the past two decades in the global service space and have direct experience operating in nearly all of the major investment destinations in the world (40+ countries). The team has served clients of all sizes, both public and private, on projects that ranged in investment size from USD10 million to greater than USD1 billion. We have served clients across all of the following industry segments: Life Sciences, Manufacturing, Automotive, Technology, Retail, Consumer Business, Real Estate, Public Sector. Follow Exolus at: www.exolus.com Need Further Information: info@exolus.com Want Copies of our Reports: www.exolus.com/en/knowledge/research.html
  • 42. Disclaimer In writing we benefit from standing on the shoulders of others and, in the process, we strive to make our own contributions to the market of ideas. As well, we are always tremendously grateful for the many, often selfless, contributions that are availed in the process. The opinions represented herein were prepared for information purposes only, at the time of publication. The information represented herein is believed to be reliable, at the time of publication, and was obtained by various public sources also believed to be reliable. The opinions were considered to be accurate at the point of creation, and further, any views, forecasts, or estimates contained herein may be subject to change at anytime without notice. The opinions expressed or implied herein may not be the opinions of the author, also Exolus, or any associated affiliates. This report and the information contained herein collectively, is not offered as, and should not be regarded as, used or relied upon as advice on any matter. It shall not constitute or be construed as a recommendation or solicitation on behalf of the author, and no legal commitment or obligation shall arise by reason of this document. Thus, the reader shall make an independent assessment of opinion’s stated herein that shall not be considered a substitute for obtaining advise from the readers’ advisors. The author shall not accept responsibility, express or implied, with regards to the accuracy and completeness of the information herein, and the author shall not be liable whatsoever and howsoever arising in connection to this publication. The author shall not accept, and hereby disclaim, all responsibility and liability to all persons, entities, or organizations for all consequences arising out of any use or reliance on the whole or any part of this publication. This publication should not be reproduced or distributed without the author’s consent and is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which this would be prohibited.
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