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HOW TO BUILD A ‘TRUTH ENGINE’
P e t e r C o c h r a n e
c o c h r a n e . o r g . u k
WORLD
Loss of freedom of speech
Legal system collapse
Societal Breakdown
Loss of Liberty
Dictatorship
Police State
Despotism
++++
Lies
Half Truths
Misinformation
Perceptual Distortion
Character Assassination
Social Distortions
Disillusionment
Rumour Mills
Dogma
Distrust
Fake News
Censorship
Media Control
Societal Division
Democratic Failure
Government Intervention
S U P R E M U M?
B e t t e r t h a n a n y o t h e r
U S P re s i d e n t e ve r !
T h e ‘ l e a d e r ’ o f
t h e f r e e w o r l d
h a s s e t a n e w
s t a n d a r d t h a t
o t h e r s n o w f e e l
f r e e t o f o l l o w !
We n o w h a v e a
p a n d e m i c o f l i e s
i n p o l i t i c s , m e d i a
a n d b u s i n e s s + + +
USA LEADING THE WAY ?
Social division, breakdown of law and order
The
Cult of
Trump
USA LEADING THE WAY ?
Social division, breakdown of law and order
The
Cult of
Trump
E N E M Y W I T H I N
Routine lies and info/data distortion
Leaders
Bankers
Politicians
Managers
Activists
Media
E N E M Y W I T H O U T
Using a new; powerful weapon of war
Ideological subversion: Changing the perceptions of populations to such an
extent that despite an abundance of data/information no one can to come to
sensible conclusions to defend themselves/families, their community/country” 
Demoralisation (15 to 20 years) Re-educate one generation of students and change
their perceptions and thinking
Destabilisation (2 - 5 years) Target essential structural elements of a nation: economy,
foreign relations, and defence systems
Normalisation (4 weeks) Take over = people living under a new ideology and reality
Four Basic Stages
Crisis (6 weeks) Violent disruption to, and change of: power, structure, and economy
LANDSCAPE of liars
Banks
Media
Moguls
Groups
Criminals
Politicians
Terrorists
Individuals
Institutions
Industrialists
Rogue States
Governments
Political Factions
+++++
Hackers
Despots
Dictators
Reporters
Executives
Extremists
Companies
Conspirators
The Paranoid
The Vulnerable
The Disaffected
The Mischievous
The Disadvantaged
+++++
Elusive
Amoral
Corrupt
Dynamic
Dedicated
Unethical
Disguised
Nefarious
Transient
Relentless
Dedicated
Networked
Distributed
Untraceable
Multi-Media
Evolutionary
Camouflaged
Multi-Faceted
Multi-Dimensional
T H E N AT U R E O F T RUT H
Truth = A Dynamic Binary
Truth = Can be Certain
Truth = Can be Dynamic
Truth = Can be Uncertain
Concatenating 1/2 truths lends great credibility…
EXTREME W EAPONS
S p o o f O b a m a s a y i n g
a n y t h i n g !
COMPOUNDED
H U M A N I G N O RA N C E
Apparently unlimited and unbounded
It takes far less thought, effort
and energy to dismiss wisdom
and deny a truth than blindly
accepting the ridiculous
Truths are hard won: and often
very difficult to establish and
accept. They can demand deep
thought, energy, and freedom
of thought, an acceptance of
debate, reason and education!
H U M A N I G N O RA N C E
Apparently unlimited and unbounded
It takes far less thought, effort
and energy to dismiss wisdom
and deny a truth than blindly
accepting the ridiculous
Truths are hard won: and often
very difficult to establish and
accept. They can demand deep
thought, energy, and freedom
of thought, an acceptance of
debate, reason and education!
Oh, and by-the-way: man
d i d n o t l a n d o n t h e
m o o n ! I t w a s a l l a
government spoof and it
was filmed in a studio!!
P r o u d t o b e i g n o r a n T
Knowledge & expertise derided
Bigger and propagate faster, further,
and deeper than the truth and
validated information….and
now growing in volume,
extremism and span
Sim
ple
&
Easy to
Grasp
Plays to DispositionsLIES & FAKE NEWS
Creates social division, social instability, unease,
dissatisfaction, paranoia, extremism, rebellion,
social instability leading to violence…
No Thinking Required
Reinforces Prejudices
Bigger and propagate faster, further,
and deeper than the truth and
validated information….and
now growing in volume,
extremism and span
Sim
ple
&
Easy to
Grasp
Plays to DispositionsLIES & FAKE NEWS
Creates social division, social instability, unease,
dissatisfaction, paranoia, extremism, rebellion,
social instability leading to violence…
No Thinking Required
Reinforces Prejudices
A lie can travel round the world and back
again whilst truth is lacing up its boots
MarkTwain 1921
FAKE NEWS
MergED
I G N O R A N C E & L I ES
T h e b i g g e s t t h r e a t & c h a l l e n g e e v e r ?
Science, Discovery and
Fundamental Truths
Technology, Engineering
and Infrastructures
Farming, Food, Industries
Institutions and Defence
B a l a n c i n g A C T
Government
Media, Society
No place for lies & dubious truths
Science, Discovery and
Fundamental Truths
Technology, Engineering
and Infrastructures
Farming, Food, Industries
Institutions and Defence
Lies
Untruths
Errors
Guesses
Distortions
Cross Checks
Evidence Base
Understanding
Knowledge
Theories
Models
Tests
B a l a n c i n g A C T
Government
Media, Society
No place for lies & dubious truths
N ot h i n g i s i s o l at e d
E v e r y t h i n g a n d e v e r y o n e i s c o n n e c t e d
Ecology
Economics
Technology
Society
Care
Markets
Industry
Education
Policing
Defence
Commerce
Security Logistics
ing
Co
ies
“In networked and fast moving world simple minded
thinking, approximations, ignorance and lies are
dangerous - they destroy companies and countries”
Trade
W h at To D o ?
Fight fire with fire: use the same
technologies/techniques but on
a fully automated and global
scale
Educating people to think
may be fundamentally
impossible!
Filtering the
web of non
validated
content is/
may be possible
but not risk
free!
E X P L O I TAT I O N
A new; powerful weapon of war
Continually scan the internet:
- Purge errors
- Flag lies & liars
- Publish veracity ratings
- Remove/Attenuate rogue users
- Block/Remove/Attenuate extreme channels
- Identify/Advertise regular/persistent offenders
- Attenuate/Attack/Disable criminal/rogue states
- Detect an disconnect postings by AI lie generators
- Isolate and mute rogue states and criminals
E X P L O I TAT I O N
A new; powerful weapon of war
Continually scan the internet:
- Purge errors
- Flag lies & liars
- Publish veracity ratings
- Remove/Attenuate rogue users
- Block/Remove/Attenuate extreme channels
- Identify/Advertise regular/persistent offenders
- Attenuate/Attack/Disable criminal/rogue states
- Detect an disconnect postings by AI lie generators
- Isolate and mute rogue states and criminals
Key Enabler = TRUTH ENGINES
T H E B I G Q U ES T I O N S
Can we accurately and reliably identify truths,
half truths, distortions, falsehoods and lies ?
Can we establish new framework and metrics ?
Can we make judgement calls fast enough ?
Can we block/attenuate the pernicious ?
Can we continuously cleanse the net ?
Can we educate society to the risks ?
T H E B I G Q U ES T I O N S
Can we accurately and reliably identify truths,
half truths, distortions, falsehoods and lies ?
Can we establish new framework and metrics ?
Can we make judgement calls fast enough ?
Can we block/attenuate the pernicious ?
Can we continuously cleanse the net ?
Can we educate society to the risks ?
✔
✔
✔ ?
✔ ?
? ?
? ? ? ?
W H Y
T r u t h E n g i n e s
Easy to confirm facts - conjecture is harder
Vital for:
• Politics
• Society
• Science
• Farming
• Internet
• Security
• Industry
• Education
• Healthcare
• Commerce
• Government
• ++++
“In most arenas truth is
dynamic and changes
with our ability to
test & measure”
“Accepted truths advance
toward an absolute state
with our ability to
challenge them”
Ignorance & Uncertainty
Flat
Spheroid
Flat
Spheroid
Oblate Spheroid
Dynamic Oblate Spheroid
Precision Measurement & Truth
1) Blatant: Knowingly contrived and delivered information
2) White: Knowingly contrived in order to be polite or to
stop someone from being upset by the truth
3) Propagating: Repeat a stated lie without fact checking
4) Falsehood: To knowingly distort the truth or facts
5) Misinterpretation: Knowingly or unknowingly distort
the truth or facts
6) Error: Innocently distort situations, events, truth or facts
7) Latent Error: Representing dynamic situations,
occurrences, truth or facts on the basis of old information
L I ES
E x p e r i m e n ts
8) Bayesian Inference: Detecting a lie from linguistic patterns
and previous behaviours of individuals and populations?
9) Simple AI: Can we detect and/or identify linguistic patterns
and/or previous behaviours of individuals and populations?
10) Correlations: Can we detect repeating patterns for known
lies and liars?
11) Trending Analysis: Can we establish historical analysis of
past reporting as a reliable measure of accuracy?
12) Lie Recognition: Can we devise metrics from (8-11)
above to detect an lie and then categorise it aka (1-7) ?
TRUTH Engine
Is it possible to build one?
TRUTH Engine
What do we have & what
do we have to develop ?
How big is this problem ?
Does it look tractable ?
Might we crack it ?
Is it really mission critical ?
What is it going to cost ?
How long will it take ?
Truth is vital for
our planet and
the survival of
all life forms
including us
✔
Is it possible to build one?
W h at W e N e e d
Print Radio TV On ScreenSpokes People
Context - Meaning Extractor - Inference Engine
Fact Checkers - Primary Source Identification/Proximity
Style - Behaviours, History, Publications Analysis
Trending Analysis - Veracity % Rating
✔
✘
✔
✔
CO R E QU EST I O NS
Veracity, accuracy, credibility testing
Who is the author ?
Why did they publish ?
Who do they work for ?
What is their reputation ?
Are they paid/sponsored ?
Do they have a following ?
Do they cite trusted sources ?
Do they have relevant expertise ?
What is their purpose/motivation ?
Is the material current/outdated ?
What site/s is/are being used ?
++++++
CO R E QU EST I O NS
Veracity, accuracy, credibility testing
Who is the author ?
Why did they publish ?
Who do they work for ?
What is their reputation ?
Are they paid/sponsored ?
Do they have a following ?
Do they cite trusted sources ?
Do they have relevant expertise ?
What is their purpose/motivation ?
Is the material current/outdated ?
What site/s is/are being used ?
++++++
Corroboration !
Fact Checking !
Correlation !
Likelihood !
Confidence
Trending !
History !
C O U L D W E
A U T O M A T E
A L L T H I S
S o u r c e S e a r c h
Original accounts v repeats
Identify primary sources
and qualified reports…
A very small number
of sources can trigger
a massive amount of
activity!
T H E DY N A M I CS
Information spreading world-wide
Identify primary sources and all
qualified reports… not always
possible…especially when a
story is developing rapidly
T H E DY N A M I CS
Information spreading world-wide
Errors, distortions, interpretations,
air time availability, sensationalism,
number of reports disconnected
from any real significance, sees
distorted perceptions
Identify primary sources and all
qualified reports… not always
possible…especially when a
story is developing rapidly
C h e c k i n g
Easy To Do ?
Snopes
Politifact
FactCheck
Wikipedia
ProPublica
MBFCNews
OpenSecrets
NewsBusters
MediaMatters
FactCheck.org
HoaxSlayer.net
TruthOrFiction.com
Washington Post Fact Checker
+++++
People intensive
C h e c k i n g
Easy To Do ?
Snopes
Politifact
FactCheck
Wikipedia
ProPublica
MBFCNews
OpenSecrets
NewsBusters
MediaMatters
FactCheck.org
HoaxSlayer.net
TruthOrFiction.com
Washington Post Fact Checker
+++++
People intensive
AGGREGATION
Fact Checking Organisations
Now exceed 160 World-Wide
Collaboration, aggregation, sharing,
and networking between checker
projects underway in >50 countries
C h e c k i n g
Easy To Do ?
Snopes
Politifact
FactCheck
Wikipedia
ProPublica
MBFCNews
OpenSecrets
NewsBusters
MediaMatters
FactCheck.org
HoaxSlayer.net
TruthOrFiction.com
Washington Post Fact Checker
+++++
People intensive
AGGREGATION
Fact Checking Organisations
Now exceed 160 World-Wide
Collaboration, aggregation, sharing,
and networking between checker
projects underway in >50 countries
R i p e f o r
A u t o m a t i o n
TWO FoR you
TO TRY !
Both are fast and powerful
- primary tools for building
an automated truth engine !
Across multiple sources - locations
C o r r e l at i o n
Weighted sources by reputation/history:
BBC = 0.95
Bloomberg = 0.90
FoxNews = 0.55
BreitBart = 0.05
+++
+++
Twitter = 0.01
Early R&D phase but of great interest
to Google, IBM, CIA, FBI, et al
TESTED resources
≈ ≈
Accurate
80%
~ 45%
Accurate
TESTED resources
≈ ≈
Accurate
80%
~ 45%
Accurate
A
F U N C T I O N
O F
T R U T H
B E I N G
D Y N A M
I C
A comprehensive
construct of every
uttered, printed and
recorded lie over all
time is required as a
reference source
across all human and
A I i n f o r m a t i o n
sources…
…does not exist as
yet, but independents
are starting to build
the components….
L I B R A RY
O F L I ES
A comprehensive
construct of every
uttered, printed and
recorded lie over all
time is required as a
reference source
across all human and
A I i n f o r m a t i o n
sources…
…does not exist as
yet, but independents
are starting to build
the components….
L I B R A RY
O F L I ES
www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/04/donald-trump-the-unauthorized-database-of-false-things.html
http://www.davesweboflies.com/dwol.htm
https://
A comprehensive
construct of every
uttered, printed and
recorded lie over all
time is required as a
reference source
across all human and
A I i n f o r m a t i o n
sources…
…does not exist as
yet, but independents
are starting to build
the components….
L I B R A RY
O F L I ES
www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/04/donald-trump-the-unauthorized-database-of-false-things.html
http://www.davesweboflies.com/dwol.htm
https://
Not hard tocompile butrequires acoordinatedAUTOMATED
global efforT
A comprehensive
construct of every
uttered, printed and
recorded lie over all
time is required as a
reference source
across all human and
A I i n f o r m a t i o n
sources…
…does not exist as
yet, but independents
are starting to build
the components….
L I B R A RY
O F L I ES
www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/04/donald-trump-the-unauthorized-database-of-false-things.html
http://www.davesweboflies.com/dwol.htm
https://
Human LEGAL
POLITIcS AND
BEUROCRACY
CONSTRAINTS
ARE THE PRIMELIMITERS
Not hard tocompile butrequires acoordinatedAUTOMATED
global efforT
ANALYSIS
Could we rank all
sources, individuals
and media in order
of truthfulness and
accuracy based on
validated facts and
information over a
significant time by
a u t o m a t i n g t h e
process to give a
confidence rating
or uncertainty % ?
100%50%0%
100% 50% 0%
ANALYSIS
Could we rank all
sources, individuals
and media in order
of truthfulness and
accuracy based on
validated facts and
information over a
significant time by
a u t o m a t i n g t h e
process to give a
confidence rating
or uncertainty % ?
100%50%0%
100% 50% 0%
C o u l d
w
e
A U T O
e v a l u a t e
t h e
E n t i r e
w
e b
i n
r e a l
t i m
e
n o n
s t o p
s e n s at i o n a l i s m
F u k u s h i m a g r o s s o v e r e s t i m a t e s
Feb 27, 2017
Fukushima prefecture tallied 2,129
“disaster-related deaths”
1368 have been listed as
"related to the nuclear power plant”
One worker is acknowledged to have
died from radiation induced illness
The Tsunami killed over 15,000 people
s e n s at i o n a l i s m
F u k u s h i m a g r o s s o v e r e s t i m a t e s
Feb 27, 2017
Fukushima prefecture tallied 2,129
“disaster-related deaths”
1368 have been listed as
"related to the nuclear power plant”
One worker is acknowledged to have
died from radiation induced illness
The Tsunami killed over 15,000 people
Assessing cases
like this is easy but
perplexing as
truth is not
important to such
sources
T H E DY N A M I CS
Identify primary sources
and qualified reports…
Errors, distortions, interpretations,
air time availability, sensationalism,
number of reports disconnected
from any real significance, sees
distorted perceptions
Information spreading world-wide
at a server level - 2D only
Identify primary sources and
qualified reports… very difficult
T H E DY N A M I CS
Identify primary sources
and qualified reports…
Errors, distortions, interpretations,
air time availability, sensationalism,
number of reports disconnected
from any real significance, sees
distorted perceptions
Information spreading world-wide
at a server level - 2D only
Identify primary sources and
qualified reports… very difficult
B
O
T
H
c
a
s
e
s
s
a
w
s
i g
n
i f
i c
a
n
t
e
r
r
o
r
p
r
o
p
a
g
a
t
i o
n
774 Deaths
in 37 countries
457 Deaths
~11,000 Deaths
~300 Deaths
Mole Hills & MOUNTAINS
H5N1 = 10 Deaths
NO - we are not all going to die!
3 DeathsZip 42 Deaths Not Proven
DANGEROUS POLITICAL
AND MEDIA MANTRA
Facts and Truths don't actually matter!
People repeat falsehoods so often that you/they believe them
This is the “illusory truth effect,” where people equate repetition with truth
Exploited by advertisers, marketeers, politicians, despots et al to the nth degree
B e y o n d H u m a n C a p a b i l i t y
D E L AY E D T I M E L I N E
Applied across all sources continuously
Reported
Event
B e y o n d H u m a n C a p a b i l i t y
D E L AY E D T I M E L I N E
Applied across all sources continuously
Reported
Event
Established
Truth
B e y o n d H u m a n C a p a b i l i t y
D E L AY E D T I M E L I N E
Applied across all sources continuously
Reported
Event
Established
Truth
Accuracy
Rating
100% 85% 95%90%
B e y o n d H u m a n C a p a b i l i t y
D E L AY E D T I M E L I N E
Applied across all sources continuously
Reported
Event
Established
Truth
Accuracy
Rating
100% 85% 95%90%
All Time
Aggregated
Trust Rating100% 95% 91.7% 92.5%
T R U t h Q u A l i t y
Degree of Lie
Error
Satire
Parody
Falshood
Distortion
Manipulation
Misrepresentation
100% True
Time
Report 1 Report 2 Report 3 Report 4
BBC, PBS Times,
NY Times, Reuters,
Economist, WSJ
Washington Post
et al
Fact check, recant,
recall restate, refine,
make every effort to
get to the truth
T R U t h Q u A l i t y
Degree of Lie
Error
Satire
Parody
Falshood
Distortion
Manipulation
Misrepresentation
100% True
Time
Report 1 Report 2 Report 3 Report 4
BBC, PBS Times,
NY Times, Reuters,
Economist, WSJ
Washington Post
et al
Fact check, recant,
recall restate, refine,
make every effort to
get to the truth
Sun, Daily Mail
F o x , B u z z f e e d ,
Breitbart, Trump,
Infowars et al
No fact checking,
political agenda,
truth has little or no
value - perception
distortion is the goalIsolated
Erroneous
Reports
Beware
Russia Today
et al
M a n u a l R es u lts
Degree of Lie
Error
Satire
Parody
Falshood
Distortion
Manipulation
Misrepresentation
100% True
Time
Report 1 Report 2 Report 3 Report 4
Washington Post ~ 98.4%
BBC, Economist ~ 98.2%
Times, Reuters ~ 98.1%
NY Times, WSJ ~ 97.5%
M a n u a l R es u lts
Degree of Lie
Error
Satire
Parody
Falshood
Distortion
Manipulation
Misrepresentation
100% True
Time
Report 1 Report 2 Report 3 Report 4
Washington Post ~ 98.4%
BBC, Economist ~ 98.2%
Times, Reuters ~ 98.1%
NY Times, WSJ ~ 97.5%
A u t o m
a t i n g
T h i s
i s
n o t
g o i n g
t o
b e
e a s y
b u t
i t
l o o k s
p o s s i b l e
T H E A M B I T I O N
Facts
Ethical
History
Honesty
Pedigree
Checked
Rectitude
Traceable
Authentic
Legitimate
Actuality
Genuine
Veracity
Verified
Correct
Certain
Maxin
Exact
++++
Misrepresentation
Misinterpretation
Disinformation
Manipulation
Subterfuge
Vilification
Ignorance
Invention
Mistakes
Delusion
Rumour
Malice
++++
Myth
Fable
Fraud
Errors
Fiction
Forgery
Distortion
Deception
Falsehood
Fabrication
Inaccuracy
Dishonesty
Falsehoods
Data Monitoring, Farming, Tracking,
Measures, Metrics, Analysis,
Decisions and Confidence
Truth Lies
A I ? Decisions to be automated & fast
The only technology we have
that might just do it is AI
SO W HERE ARE W E ?
Many components exist or we can see how we might build them !
Context/
Meaning
Extractor
Inference
Engine
Primary Source
Identifier
SO W HERE ARE W E ?
Many components exist or we can see how we might build them !
Context/
Meaning
Extractor
Inference
Engine
Primary Source
Identifier
Fact
Checkers
SO W HERE ARE W E ?
Many components exist or we can see how we might build them !
Context/
Meaning
Extractor
Inference
Engine
Primary Source
Identifier
Fact
Checkers
Style
History
Publications
Behaviours
Library
of Lies
SO W HERE ARE W E ?
Many components exist or we can see how we might build them !
Context/
Meaning
Extractor
Inference
Engine
Primary Source
Identifier
Fact
Checkers
Style
History
Publications
Behaviours
Library
of Lies
Trending
Analysis
Veracity
Rating
H U M A N B I A S
Build multiple Truth Engines
Different configurations, components, AI
Run continuous comparisons
on the same data/cases and
to identify anomalies
We are talking joint
human-AI opinion,
judgement and
assessment !
Critical
Thinking
Is it now nullified ??
Dominant Mode ?
“I’m right you are
wrong, and so you
are an idiot”
What happened
to the art of
debate, tolerance
and thinking ?
Critical
Thinking
Is it now nullified ??
Dominant Mode ?
“I’m right you are
wrong, and so you
are an idiot”
What happened
to the art of
debate, tolerance
and thinking ?
O p I n i o n
h a s
l i t t l e v a l u e
Critical
Thinking
Is it now nullified ??
Dominant Mode ?
“I’m right you are
wrong, and so you
are an idiot”
What happened
to the art of
debate, tolerance
and thinking ?
O p I n i o n
h a s
l i t t l e v a l u e
Q u a l i f i e d
A n a l y t i c s
c a n
n o w
h a v e e v e n
l e s s
Not an option for science, the law
engineering, medicine, industry,
banking, commerces and any
society aspiring to prosperity,
peace and longevity
Bigotry: intolerance towards
those who hold different
opinions from oneself
BELIEF SYSTEMS
Damaging decisions
based on false data
can only lead to a
societal collapse
D i s c o u ra g e t h i n k i n g a n d d e b a t e
T H E U LT I M AT E F I X
D o w e n e e d a R E D o r a B l u e p i l l ?
The Voight-Kampff Test - Replicant orHuman?
Rachel Blade Runner 1982 Ridley Scott
Thank You
www. cochrane.org.uk
www.slideshare.net/PeterCochrane

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How to Build a Truth Engine

  • 1. HOW TO BUILD A ‘TRUTH ENGINE’ P e t e r C o c h r a n e c o c h r a n e . o r g . u k
  • 2. WORLD Loss of freedom of speech Legal system collapse Societal Breakdown Loss of Liberty Dictatorship Police State Despotism ++++ Lies Half Truths Misinformation Perceptual Distortion Character Assassination Social Distortions Disillusionment Rumour Mills Dogma Distrust Fake News Censorship Media Control Societal Division Democratic Failure Government Intervention
  • 3. S U P R E M U M? B e t t e r t h a n a n y o t h e r U S P re s i d e n t e ve r ! T h e ‘ l e a d e r ’ o f t h e f r e e w o r l d h a s s e t a n e w s t a n d a r d t h a t o t h e r s n o w f e e l f r e e t o f o l l o w ! We n o w h a v e a p a n d e m i c o f l i e s i n p o l i t i c s , m e d i a a n d b u s i n e s s + + +
  • 4. USA LEADING THE WAY ? Social division, breakdown of law and order The Cult of Trump
  • 5. USA LEADING THE WAY ? Social division, breakdown of law and order The Cult of Trump
  • 6. E N E M Y W I T H I N Routine lies and info/data distortion Leaders Bankers Politicians Managers Activists Media
  • 7. E N E M Y W I T H O U T Using a new; powerful weapon of war Ideological subversion: Changing the perceptions of populations to such an extent that despite an abundance of data/information no one can to come to sensible conclusions to defend themselves/families, their community/country”  Demoralisation (15 to 20 years) Re-educate one generation of students and change their perceptions and thinking Destabilisation (2 - 5 years) Target essential structural elements of a nation: economy, foreign relations, and defence systems Normalisation (4 weeks) Take over = people living under a new ideology and reality Four Basic Stages Crisis (6 weeks) Violent disruption to, and change of: power, structure, and economy
  • 8. LANDSCAPE of liars Banks Media Moguls Groups Criminals Politicians Terrorists Individuals Institutions Industrialists Rogue States Governments Political Factions +++++ Hackers Despots Dictators Reporters Executives Extremists Companies Conspirators The Paranoid The Vulnerable The Disaffected The Mischievous The Disadvantaged +++++ Elusive Amoral Corrupt Dynamic Dedicated Unethical Disguised Nefarious Transient Relentless Dedicated Networked Distributed Untraceable Multi-Media Evolutionary Camouflaged Multi-Faceted Multi-Dimensional
  • 9. T H E N AT U R E O F T RUT H Truth = A Dynamic Binary Truth = Can be Certain Truth = Can be Dynamic Truth = Can be Uncertain Concatenating 1/2 truths lends great credibility…
  • 10. EXTREME W EAPONS S p o o f O b a m a s a y i n g a n y t h i n g !
  • 12. H U M A N I G N O RA N C E Apparently unlimited and unbounded It takes far less thought, effort and energy to dismiss wisdom and deny a truth than blindly accepting the ridiculous Truths are hard won: and often very difficult to establish and accept. They can demand deep thought, energy, and freedom of thought, an acceptance of debate, reason and education!
  • 13. H U M A N I G N O RA N C E Apparently unlimited and unbounded It takes far less thought, effort and energy to dismiss wisdom and deny a truth than blindly accepting the ridiculous Truths are hard won: and often very difficult to establish and accept. They can demand deep thought, energy, and freedom of thought, an acceptance of debate, reason and education! Oh, and by-the-way: man d i d n o t l a n d o n t h e m o o n ! I t w a s a l l a government spoof and it was filmed in a studio!!
  • 14. P r o u d t o b e i g n o r a n T Knowledge & expertise derided
  • 15. Bigger and propagate faster, further, and deeper than the truth and validated information….and now growing in volume, extremism and span Sim ple & Easy to Grasp Plays to DispositionsLIES & FAKE NEWS Creates social division, social instability, unease, dissatisfaction, paranoia, extremism, rebellion, social instability leading to violence… No Thinking Required Reinforces Prejudices
  • 16. Bigger and propagate faster, further, and deeper than the truth and validated information….and now growing in volume, extremism and span Sim ple & Easy to Grasp Plays to DispositionsLIES & FAKE NEWS Creates social division, social instability, unease, dissatisfaction, paranoia, extremism, rebellion, social instability leading to violence… No Thinking Required Reinforces Prejudices A lie can travel round the world and back again whilst truth is lacing up its boots MarkTwain 1921
  • 19. I G N O R A N C E & L I ES T h e b i g g e s t t h r e a t & c h a l l e n g e e v e r ?
  • 20. Science, Discovery and Fundamental Truths Technology, Engineering and Infrastructures Farming, Food, Industries Institutions and Defence B a l a n c i n g A C T Government Media, Society No place for lies & dubious truths
  • 21. Science, Discovery and Fundamental Truths Technology, Engineering and Infrastructures Farming, Food, Industries Institutions and Defence Lies Untruths Errors Guesses Distortions Cross Checks Evidence Base Understanding Knowledge Theories Models Tests B a l a n c i n g A C T Government Media, Society No place for lies & dubious truths
  • 22. N ot h i n g i s i s o l at e d E v e r y t h i n g a n d e v e r y o n e i s c o n n e c t e d Ecology Economics Technology Society Care Markets Industry Education Policing Defence Commerce Security Logistics ing Co ies “In networked and fast moving world simple minded thinking, approximations, ignorance and lies are dangerous - they destroy companies and countries” Trade
  • 23. W h at To D o ? Fight fire with fire: use the same technologies/techniques but on a fully automated and global scale Educating people to think may be fundamentally impossible! Filtering the web of non validated content is/ may be possible but not risk free!
  • 24. E X P L O I TAT I O N A new; powerful weapon of war Continually scan the internet: - Purge errors - Flag lies & liars - Publish veracity ratings - Remove/Attenuate rogue users - Block/Remove/Attenuate extreme channels - Identify/Advertise regular/persistent offenders - Attenuate/Attack/Disable criminal/rogue states - Detect an disconnect postings by AI lie generators - Isolate and mute rogue states and criminals
  • 25. E X P L O I TAT I O N A new; powerful weapon of war Continually scan the internet: - Purge errors - Flag lies & liars - Publish veracity ratings - Remove/Attenuate rogue users - Block/Remove/Attenuate extreme channels - Identify/Advertise regular/persistent offenders - Attenuate/Attack/Disable criminal/rogue states - Detect an disconnect postings by AI lie generators - Isolate and mute rogue states and criminals Key Enabler = TRUTH ENGINES
  • 26. T H E B I G Q U ES T I O N S Can we accurately and reliably identify truths, half truths, distortions, falsehoods and lies ? Can we establish new framework and metrics ? Can we make judgement calls fast enough ? Can we block/attenuate the pernicious ? Can we continuously cleanse the net ? Can we educate society to the risks ?
  • 27. T H E B I G Q U ES T I O N S Can we accurately and reliably identify truths, half truths, distortions, falsehoods and lies ? Can we establish new framework and metrics ? Can we make judgement calls fast enough ? Can we block/attenuate the pernicious ? Can we continuously cleanse the net ? Can we educate society to the risks ? ✔ ✔ ✔ ? ✔ ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
  • 28. W H Y T r u t h E n g i n e s Easy to confirm facts - conjecture is harder Vital for: • Politics • Society • Science • Farming • Internet • Security • Industry • Education • Healthcare • Commerce • Government • ++++ “In most arenas truth is dynamic and changes with our ability to test & measure” “Accepted truths advance toward an absolute state with our ability to challenge them” Ignorance & Uncertainty Flat Spheroid Flat Spheroid Oblate Spheroid Dynamic Oblate Spheroid Precision Measurement & Truth
  • 29. 1) Blatant: Knowingly contrived and delivered information 2) White: Knowingly contrived in order to be polite or to stop someone from being upset by the truth 3) Propagating: Repeat a stated lie without fact checking 4) Falsehood: To knowingly distort the truth or facts 5) Misinterpretation: Knowingly or unknowingly distort the truth or facts 6) Error: Innocently distort situations, events, truth or facts 7) Latent Error: Representing dynamic situations, occurrences, truth or facts on the basis of old information L I ES
  • 30. E x p e r i m e n ts 8) Bayesian Inference: Detecting a lie from linguistic patterns and previous behaviours of individuals and populations? 9) Simple AI: Can we detect and/or identify linguistic patterns and/or previous behaviours of individuals and populations? 10) Correlations: Can we detect repeating patterns for known lies and liars? 11) Trending Analysis: Can we establish historical analysis of past reporting as a reliable measure of accuracy? 12) Lie Recognition: Can we devise metrics from (8-11) above to detect an lie and then categorise it aka (1-7) ?
  • 31. TRUTH Engine Is it possible to build one?
  • 32. TRUTH Engine What do we have & what do we have to develop ? How big is this problem ? Does it look tractable ? Might we crack it ? Is it really mission critical ? What is it going to cost ? How long will it take ? Truth is vital for our planet and the survival of all life forms including us ✔ Is it possible to build one?
  • 33. W h at W e N e e d Print Radio TV On ScreenSpokes People Context - Meaning Extractor - Inference Engine Fact Checkers - Primary Source Identification/Proximity Style - Behaviours, History, Publications Analysis Trending Analysis - Veracity % Rating ✔ ✘ ✔ ✔
  • 34. CO R E QU EST I O NS Veracity, accuracy, credibility testing Who is the author ? Why did they publish ? Who do they work for ? What is their reputation ? Are they paid/sponsored ? Do they have a following ? Do they cite trusted sources ? Do they have relevant expertise ? What is their purpose/motivation ? Is the material current/outdated ? What site/s is/are being used ? ++++++
  • 35. CO R E QU EST I O NS Veracity, accuracy, credibility testing Who is the author ? Why did they publish ? Who do they work for ? What is their reputation ? Are they paid/sponsored ? Do they have a following ? Do they cite trusted sources ? Do they have relevant expertise ? What is their purpose/motivation ? Is the material current/outdated ? What site/s is/are being used ? ++++++ Corroboration ! Fact Checking ! Correlation ! Likelihood ! Confidence Trending ! History ! C O U L D W E A U T O M A T E A L L T H I S
  • 36. S o u r c e S e a r c h Original accounts v repeats Identify primary sources and qualified reports… A very small number of sources can trigger a massive amount of activity!
  • 37. T H E DY N A M I CS Information spreading world-wide Identify primary sources and all qualified reports… not always possible…especially when a story is developing rapidly
  • 38. T H E DY N A M I CS Information spreading world-wide Errors, distortions, interpretations, air time availability, sensationalism, number of reports disconnected from any real significance, sees distorted perceptions Identify primary sources and all qualified reports… not always possible…especially when a story is developing rapidly
  • 39. C h e c k i n g Easy To Do ? Snopes Politifact FactCheck Wikipedia ProPublica MBFCNews OpenSecrets NewsBusters MediaMatters FactCheck.org HoaxSlayer.net TruthOrFiction.com Washington Post Fact Checker +++++ People intensive
  • 40. C h e c k i n g Easy To Do ? Snopes Politifact FactCheck Wikipedia ProPublica MBFCNews OpenSecrets NewsBusters MediaMatters FactCheck.org HoaxSlayer.net TruthOrFiction.com Washington Post Fact Checker +++++ People intensive AGGREGATION Fact Checking Organisations Now exceed 160 World-Wide Collaboration, aggregation, sharing, and networking between checker projects underway in >50 countries
  • 41. C h e c k i n g Easy To Do ? Snopes Politifact FactCheck Wikipedia ProPublica MBFCNews OpenSecrets NewsBusters MediaMatters FactCheck.org HoaxSlayer.net TruthOrFiction.com Washington Post Fact Checker +++++ People intensive AGGREGATION Fact Checking Organisations Now exceed 160 World-Wide Collaboration, aggregation, sharing, and networking between checker projects underway in >50 countries R i p e f o r A u t o m a t i o n
  • 42. TWO FoR you TO TRY ! Both are fast and powerful - primary tools for building an automated truth engine !
  • 43. Across multiple sources - locations C o r r e l at i o n Weighted sources by reputation/history: BBC = 0.95 Bloomberg = 0.90 FoxNews = 0.55 BreitBart = 0.05 +++ +++ Twitter = 0.01 Early R&D phase but of great interest to Google, IBM, CIA, FBI, et al
  • 45. TESTED resources ≈ ≈ Accurate 80% ~ 45% Accurate A F U N C T I O N O F T R U T H B E I N G D Y N A M I C
  • 46. A comprehensive construct of every uttered, printed and recorded lie over all time is required as a reference source across all human and A I i n f o r m a t i o n sources… …does not exist as yet, but independents are starting to build the components…. L I B R A RY O F L I ES
  • 47. A comprehensive construct of every uttered, printed and recorded lie over all time is required as a reference source across all human and A I i n f o r m a t i o n sources… …does not exist as yet, but independents are starting to build the components…. L I B R A RY O F L I ES www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/04/donald-trump-the-unauthorized-database-of-false-things.html http://www.davesweboflies.com/dwol.htm https://
  • 48. A comprehensive construct of every uttered, printed and recorded lie over all time is required as a reference source across all human and A I i n f o r m a t i o n sources… …does not exist as yet, but independents are starting to build the components…. L I B R A RY O F L I ES www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/04/donald-trump-the-unauthorized-database-of-false-things.html http://www.davesweboflies.com/dwol.htm https:// Not hard tocompile butrequires acoordinatedAUTOMATED global efforT
  • 49. A comprehensive construct of every uttered, printed and recorded lie over all time is required as a reference source across all human and A I i n f o r m a t i o n sources… …does not exist as yet, but independents are starting to build the components…. L I B R A RY O F L I ES www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/04/donald-trump-the-unauthorized-database-of-false-things.html http://www.davesweboflies.com/dwol.htm https:// Human LEGAL POLITIcS AND BEUROCRACY CONSTRAINTS ARE THE PRIMELIMITERS Not hard tocompile butrequires acoordinatedAUTOMATED global efforT
  • 50. ANALYSIS Could we rank all sources, individuals and media in order of truthfulness and accuracy based on validated facts and information over a significant time by a u t o m a t i n g t h e process to give a confidence rating or uncertainty % ? 100%50%0% 100% 50% 0%
  • 51. ANALYSIS Could we rank all sources, individuals and media in order of truthfulness and accuracy based on validated facts and information over a significant time by a u t o m a t i n g t h e process to give a confidence rating or uncertainty % ? 100%50%0% 100% 50% 0% C o u l d w e A U T O e v a l u a t e t h e E n t i r e w e b i n r e a l t i m e n o n s t o p
  • 52. s e n s at i o n a l i s m F u k u s h i m a g r o s s o v e r e s t i m a t e s Feb 27, 2017 Fukushima prefecture tallied 2,129 “disaster-related deaths” 1368 have been listed as "related to the nuclear power plant” One worker is acknowledged to have died from radiation induced illness The Tsunami killed over 15,000 people
  • 53. s e n s at i o n a l i s m F u k u s h i m a g r o s s o v e r e s t i m a t e s Feb 27, 2017 Fukushima prefecture tallied 2,129 “disaster-related deaths” 1368 have been listed as "related to the nuclear power plant” One worker is acknowledged to have died from radiation induced illness The Tsunami killed over 15,000 people Assessing cases like this is easy but perplexing as truth is not important to such sources
  • 54. T H E DY N A M I CS Identify primary sources and qualified reports… Errors, distortions, interpretations, air time availability, sensationalism, number of reports disconnected from any real significance, sees distorted perceptions Information spreading world-wide at a server level - 2D only Identify primary sources and qualified reports… very difficult
  • 55. T H E DY N A M I CS Identify primary sources and qualified reports… Errors, distortions, interpretations, air time availability, sensationalism, number of reports disconnected from any real significance, sees distorted perceptions Information spreading world-wide at a server level - 2D only Identify primary sources and qualified reports… very difficult B O T H c a s e s s a w s i g n i f i c a n t e r r o r p r o p a g a t i o n
  • 56. 774 Deaths in 37 countries 457 Deaths ~11,000 Deaths ~300 Deaths Mole Hills & MOUNTAINS H5N1 = 10 Deaths NO - we are not all going to die! 3 DeathsZip 42 Deaths Not Proven
  • 57. DANGEROUS POLITICAL AND MEDIA MANTRA Facts and Truths don't actually matter! People repeat falsehoods so often that you/they believe them This is the “illusory truth effect,” where people equate repetition with truth Exploited by advertisers, marketeers, politicians, despots et al to the nth degree
  • 58. B e y o n d H u m a n C a p a b i l i t y D E L AY E D T I M E L I N E Applied across all sources continuously Reported Event
  • 59. B e y o n d H u m a n C a p a b i l i t y D E L AY E D T I M E L I N E Applied across all sources continuously Reported Event Established Truth
  • 60. B e y o n d H u m a n C a p a b i l i t y D E L AY E D T I M E L I N E Applied across all sources continuously Reported Event Established Truth Accuracy Rating 100% 85% 95%90%
  • 61. B e y o n d H u m a n C a p a b i l i t y D E L AY E D T I M E L I N E Applied across all sources continuously Reported Event Established Truth Accuracy Rating 100% 85% 95%90% All Time Aggregated Trust Rating100% 95% 91.7% 92.5%
  • 62. T R U t h Q u A l i t y Degree of Lie Error Satire Parody Falshood Distortion Manipulation Misrepresentation 100% True Time Report 1 Report 2 Report 3 Report 4 BBC, PBS Times, NY Times, Reuters, Economist, WSJ Washington Post et al Fact check, recant, recall restate, refine, make every effort to get to the truth
  • 63. T R U t h Q u A l i t y Degree of Lie Error Satire Parody Falshood Distortion Manipulation Misrepresentation 100% True Time Report 1 Report 2 Report 3 Report 4 BBC, PBS Times, NY Times, Reuters, Economist, WSJ Washington Post et al Fact check, recant, recall restate, refine, make every effort to get to the truth Sun, Daily Mail F o x , B u z z f e e d , Breitbart, Trump, Infowars et al No fact checking, political agenda, truth has little or no value - perception distortion is the goalIsolated Erroneous Reports Beware Russia Today et al
  • 64. M a n u a l R es u lts Degree of Lie Error Satire Parody Falshood Distortion Manipulation Misrepresentation 100% True Time Report 1 Report 2 Report 3 Report 4 Washington Post ~ 98.4% BBC, Economist ~ 98.2% Times, Reuters ~ 98.1% NY Times, WSJ ~ 97.5%
  • 65. M a n u a l R es u lts Degree of Lie Error Satire Parody Falshood Distortion Manipulation Misrepresentation 100% True Time Report 1 Report 2 Report 3 Report 4 Washington Post ~ 98.4% BBC, Economist ~ 98.2% Times, Reuters ~ 98.1% NY Times, WSJ ~ 97.5% A u t o m a t i n g T h i s i s n o t g o i n g t o b e e a s y b u t i t l o o k s p o s s i b l e
  • 66. T H E A M B I T I O N Facts Ethical History Honesty Pedigree Checked Rectitude Traceable Authentic Legitimate Actuality Genuine Veracity Verified Correct Certain Maxin Exact ++++ Misrepresentation Misinterpretation Disinformation Manipulation Subterfuge Vilification Ignorance Invention Mistakes Delusion Rumour Malice ++++ Myth Fable Fraud Errors Fiction Forgery Distortion Deception Falsehood Fabrication Inaccuracy Dishonesty Falsehoods Data Monitoring, Farming, Tracking, Measures, Metrics, Analysis, Decisions and Confidence Truth Lies A I ? Decisions to be automated & fast The only technology we have that might just do it is AI
  • 67. SO W HERE ARE W E ? Many components exist or we can see how we might build them ! Context/ Meaning Extractor Inference Engine Primary Source Identifier
  • 68. SO W HERE ARE W E ? Many components exist or we can see how we might build them ! Context/ Meaning Extractor Inference Engine Primary Source Identifier Fact Checkers
  • 69. SO W HERE ARE W E ? Many components exist or we can see how we might build them ! Context/ Meaning Extractor Inference Engine Primary Source Identifier Fact Checkers Style History Publications Behaviours Library of Lies
  • 70. SO W HERE ARE W E ? Many components exist or we can see how we might build them ! Context/ Meaning Extractor Inference Engine Primary Source Identifier Fact Checkers Style History Publications Behaviours Library of Lies Trending Analysis Veracity Rating
  • 71. H U M A N B I A S Build multiple Truth Engines Different configurations, components, AI Run continuous comparisons on the same data/cases and to identify anomalies We are talking joint human-AI opinion, judgement and assessment !
  • 72. Critical Thinking Is it now nullified ?? Dominant Mode ? “I’m right you are wrong, and so you are an idiot” What happened to the art of debate, tolerance and thinking ?
  • 73. Critical Thinking Is it now nullified ?? Dominant Mode ? “I’m right you are wrong, and so you are an idiot” What happened to the art of debate, tolerance and thinking ? O p I n i o n h a s l i t t l e v a l u e
  • 74. Critical Thinking Is it now nullified ?? Dominant Mode ? “I’m right you are wrong, and so you are an idiot” What happened to the art of debate, tolerance and thinking ? O p I n i o n h a s l i t t l e v a l u e Q u a l i f i e d A n a l y t i c s c a n n o w h a v e e v e n l e s s
  • 75. Not an option for science, the law engineering, medicine, industry, banking, commerces and any society aspiring to prosperity, peace and longevity Bigotry: intolerance towards those who hold different opinions from oneself BELIEF SYSTEMS Damaging decisions based on false data can only lead to a societal collapse D i s c o u ra g e t h i n k i n g a n d d e b a t e
  • 76.
  • 77. T H E U LT I M AT E F I X D o w e n e e d a R E D o r a B l u e p i l l ?
  • 78.
  • 79. The Voight-Kampff Test - Replicant orHuman? Rachel Blade Runner 1982 Ridley Scott Thank You www. cochrane.org.uk www.slideshare.net/PeterCochrane