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GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS AND DEVELOPMENT	
1
Gary Gereffi
Director, Duke CGGC
Duke University
APSI class on GVCs
March 28, 2017
AGENDA
1.  Origins of the GVC Framework
2.  Clarifying Concepts: GVCs, Governance &
Upgrading
3.  GVC Competition for US Market: China vs. Mexico
4.  Small Countries and High Tech: Medical Devices
GVC in Costa Rica
WHERE DO GVCS COME FROM?
3
Where does the idea of Value Chains come from?
4
MAJOR STEPPING STONES
•  GCCs (global commodity chains) à GVCs (global value chains)
(1990s-2000s)
•  Rockefeller Foundation’s Global Value Chain Initiative
(2000-2005) -- https://globalvaluechains.org/
•  Duke Center on Globalization, Governance & Competitiveness
(Duke CGGC) (2005-present) -- http://www.cggc.duke.edu/
•  Adoption and Elaboration by International Organizations of
GVC Approach to Development (ca. 2010-2016) --
https://dukegvcsummit.org/
–  E.g., World Trade Organization, OECD, World Bank, Inter-American
Development Bank, African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank,
ILO, UNCTAD, UNIDO, USAID, DFID, GIZ, etc.
CLARIFYING GVC CONCEPTS
6
INITIAL DISTINCTIONS
•  Global Supply Chains
–  Logistics (transportation focus: reduce time + costs)
–  Trade Facilitation (lower barriers at the border)
•  Global Commodity Chains
–  Producer-driven chains: Trade + FDI (e.g., aircraft, autos, mining, oil)
–  Buyer-driven chains: Trade w/o FDI (e.g., consumer goods); global
subcontracting by retailers, brands & supermarkets
•  Global Value Chains
–  Rise of intermediate goods trade (import content of exports: 20% in
1990; 40% in 2010; 60% in 2030 – P. Lamy)
–  Create, capture & sustain domestic value added (e.g., Chinese i-
Phone example; build capabilities of domestic suppliers)
•  Regional Value Chains
–  Growing in importance, esp. since 2008-09 and in emerging
economies; beyond fragmentation and EOI development model.
7
MASTER GVC CONCEPTS:
GOVERNANCE & UPGRADING
8
Global value chain analysis provides both conceptual and
methodological tools for examining the global economy
•  Top-down: a focus on lead firms and inter-firm
networks, using varied typologies of industrial
“governance”
•  Bottom-up: a focus on countries and regions, which
are analyzed in terms of various trajectories of
economic, social and environmental “upgrading” (or
“downgrading”)
LINKING GLOBAL CHAINS AND LOCAL CLUSTERS
9
Five GVC Governance Types
10
G.	Gereffi,	J.	Humphrey	&	T.	Sturgeon,	“The	governance	of	global	value	chains,”	
Review	of	Interna.onal	Poli.cal	Economy	12,	1	(2005),	p.	89.
A Parsimonious Model:
Three Explanatory Variables
11
1. Complexity of information required for a
transaction
2. Extent to which this information can be
codified
3. Supplier capabilities in relation to a
transaction’s requirements
Determinants of GVC Governance
Governance
Type
Complexity of
transactions
Ability to codify
transactions
Capabilities in
the supply-base
Degree of
explicit
coordination and
power
asymmetry
Market Low High High
Modular High High High
Relational High Low High
Captive High High Low
Hierarchy High Low Low
Low
High
Network
org.
forms
Gereffi	at	al,	“The	governance	of	global	value	chains,”	RIPE	(2005),	p.	87.
Dynamics in Global Value Chain Governance
Governance
Type
Complexity of
transactions
Ability to codify
transactions
Capabilities in the
supply-base
Market Low High High
Modular  High ‚ High
„
High
Relational High ƒ Low … High †
Captive High High Low
Hierarchy High Low Low
 increasing complexity of transactions (harder to codify transactions; effective decrease in supplier competence)
‚ decreasing complexity of transactions (easier to codify transactions; effective increase in supplier competence)
ƒ better codification of transactions (open or de facto standards, computerization)
„ de-codification of transactions (technological change, new products, new processes)
… increasing supplier competence (decreased complexity, better codification, learning)
† decreasing supplier competence.(increased complexity, new technologies, new entrants)
High High
Gereffi	at	al,	“The	governance	of	global	value	chains,”	RIPE	(2005),	p.	90.
WHERE ARE THE HIGH-VALUE ACTIVITIES IN GVCS?
14
Value Chain – Types of Upgrading
Source:	UNIDO,	2014
GVC BATTLE FOR THE U.S. MARKET:
CHINA VS. MEXICO
16
§  Head-to-head	compeUUon	in	U.S.	market	
§  China	is	world’s	leading	exporter	of	many	
manufactures,	esp.	consumer	goods	
§  China	and	Mexico	are	typically	among	the	top	
three	exporters	to	the	U.S.	market	in	many	
product	categories	
§  China	is	moving	ahead	of	Mexico	with	
dominant	market	shares	in	the	United	States,	
especially	in	2000-2005	period	
Mexico	vs.	China	
17
Mexico's and China's Competing Exports to US Market
18
SITC
Category Product
Value
(billions)
Share of
US market
Value
(billions)
Share of
US market
Value
(billions)
Share of
US market
Mexico 6.4 11.5 5.6 9.6 13.5 16.6 -1.9 7.0
China 6.3 11.3 28.6 49.3 53.3 65.7 38.0 16.4
US Total 55.9 57.9 81.1
Mexico 9.1 20.6 10.8 13.6 12.1 10.2 -7.0 -3.4
China 4.6 10.3 29.6 37.3 68.7 58.0 26.9 20.8
US Total 44.3 79.5 118.4
Mexico 3.1 18.3 5.0 21.8 7.2 21.4 3.5 -0.4
China 2.0 11.9 6.1 26.6 11.2 33.2 14.7 6.6
US Total 17.1 23.1 33.7
Mexico 4.6 16.3 10.2 22.2 19.1 30.4 5.8 8.2
China 0.4 1.5 3.6 7.8 8.3 13.2 6.2 5.4
US Total 28.4 46.2 62.9
Mexico 3.2 16.9 4.6 13.6 7.6 18.3 -3.3 4.7
China 4.5 23.6 16.2 47.7 19.2 46.3 24.1 -1.4
US Total 18.9 33.9 41.5
Mexico 8.7 13.6 4.7 5.8 4.0 4.4 -7.8 -1.4
China 8.5 13.2 27.1 33.4 34.2 37.9 20.2 4.5
US Total 64.3 81.2 90.2
Source: US Department of Commerce (http://dataweb.usitc.gov), Downloaded Aug 26, 2015
84
Apparel and
Cothing
778
Electrical
Machinery
784 Auto Parts
2007
821 Furniture
752
Automatic Data
Processing
Machines
764
Telecom
Equipment
2014 Change in
Market Share
2007-2014
Change in
Market Share
2000-2007
2000
19
Source: USITC http://dataweb.usitc.gov downloaded Aug 26, 2015
20
Source: USITC http://dataweb.usitc.gov downloaded Aug 26, 2015
21
Source: USITC http://dataweb.usitc.gov downloaded Aug 26, 2015
22
Source: USITC http://dataweb.usitc.gov downloaded Aug 26, 2015
§  China	is	a	lower-cost	producer	overall	(labor	
costs	lower,	but	not	transport	&	tariffs)	
§  China	has	huge	scale	economies	
§  China	has	a	coherent	and	mulUdimensional	
upgrading	strategy	–	diversify	and	add	high	
value	acUviUes	
§  China	is	using	direct	foreign	investment	to	
promote	“fast	learning”	in	new	industries	
§  China	uses	access	to	its	domes6c	market	to	
a^ract	TNCs	and	promote	knowledge	spillovers	
	
Why	is	China	gaining	U.S.	market	share	
over	Mexico?	
23
China’s Supply Chain Cities in Apparel
Source: David Barboza, “In roaring China, sweaters are
west of socks city,” New York Times, Dec. 24, 2004. 24
25
q  What kinds of work are Chinese, Indian,
and American engineers actually doing?
•  Answer: Not just product adaptation,
but cutting-edge research &
commercialization
q  China: More than 1,200 MNC R&D Centers
•  GE’s China Technology Center:
Advanced research in energy storage,
environmental management
•  Microsoft Research Asia: Cutting-edge
graphics & multimedia research
© 2015 CGGC, Duke University
COSTA RICA IN THE MEDICAL
DEVICES GVC
26
© 2015 CGGC, Duke University
Components
Manufacturing
Plastics extrusion
& molding
Precision metal
works
Electronics
development
Software
Development
Weaving/Knitting
Textiles
Assembly
Packaging
Sterilization
Assembly /
Production
Distribution &
Marketing
Resin Metals
Chemicals Textiles
Input Suppliers
Disposables
US$575.5 million
Instruments
US$270.5 million
Capital Equip.
US$32.5 million
Therapeutics
US$301 million
Main Segments: Exports
Post-Sales
Services
Consulting
Maintenance,
Repair
Training
Research &
Product
Development
Regulatory
Approval
Process
Development
Sustaining
Engineering
Prototype
Local firms are mainly in packaging & support services (12 of 19) versus 4 in limited
role in plastics molding & metal finishing and 1 OEM with exports under $2 million.
Number of Firms
0 - 5
6 - 10
11 - 15
16 - 20
COSTA RICA IN THE MEDICAL DEVICES GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN, 2012
Wholesale
distributors
Individual Patients
Doctors & Nurses
Hospitals
(Public/Private)
27
© 2015 CGGC, Duke University
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
ExportValues($USMilion)
Year
Costa Rica's Medical Exports by Product Category: 1998-2011
Disposables Therapeutics Instruments Capital Equipment
EVOLUTION OF MEDICAL DEVICES EXPORTS FROM COSTA RICA
•  Disposables still the largest product category exported, but no longer a
strong growth area.
•  Exports in surgical instruments have grown steadily since 2005.
•  Therapeutics has become 2nd largest category since 2008; likely to increase
as newly established firms complete transfer of new product lines.
•  Limited export of highest value capital equipment (eg. Electronic/software
devices)
28
© 2015 CGGC, Duke University
Entry Year Firm
Characteristics
Main Product
Export Category
Core Market
Segments
Product
Examples
Select
Firms
Up to 2000
24 firms:
8 US
15 CR
1 German
4 OEMs
8 Components
1 Input distributor
7 Packaging
1 Finishing
3 Support services
Disposables
Drug delivery;
Women’s health
Intravenous tubing (I)
Mastectomy bra (I)
Hospira;
Baxter;
Amoena;
Corbel
2001–2004
13 firms:
9 US
3 CR
1 Colombian
3 OEMS
6 Components
1 Finishing
1 Logistics provider
2 Support services
Instruments Endoscopic surgery Biopsy forceps (II)
Arthrocare;
Boston Scientific;
Oberg Industries
2005–2008
8 firms:
7 US
1 Puerto Rico
2 OEM
4 Components
1 Packaging
1 Finishing
Therapeutics
Cosmetic surgery;
Women’s health &
urology
Breast implants (III)
Minimally invasive
devices for uterine
surgery (II)
Allergan;
Tegra Medical;
Specialty Coating
Systems
2009–2012
21 firms:
16 US
1 CR
1 Ireland
1 Japan
2 Joint ventures
(US-CR)
5 OEMS
7 Components
2 Non-OEM
assemblers
1 Input Distributor
2 Sterilization
2 Packaging
Therapeutics
Disposables
Instruments
Cardiovascular
Drug delivery
Heart valves (III)
Dialysis catheters (III)
Guide wires (III)
Compression socks (I)
Abbott Vascular
St. Jude Medical
Covidien
Moog
Synergy Health
Volcano Corp.
FIRMS IN THE COSTA RICA MEDICAL DEVICES SECTOR
29
© 2015 CGGC, Duke University© 2015 CGGC, Duke University
UPGRADING SUCCESS: A LEADING MEDICAL
DEVICES MNC
2010
Initial plant reopens
after restructuring
•  2004: Manufacturing functions
•  2012: Engineering for process improvements èFocused on cardiology
segment; strategy – to alleviate R&D costs in the US.
Functional
Upgrading
•  Biopsy forcepsè Labor intensive, basic metal works & extrusion.
•  Urethral stentè Thermoforming, laser marking, coating capabilities.
•  Guide Wires è Sophisticated Laser cutting & welding.
•  Today – CR facilities cover 42 manufacturing processes.
Product & Process
Upgrading
•  Gastroenterology segment è Urology è CardiovascularMarket Diversification
•  Recent co-location of sterilization vendors will allow the firm to export directly
to global distribution centersForward Linkages
2004
First production plant
opens in Costa Rica
(10,000m2)
2008
Second plant opens.
(32,000m2)
First plant restructuring
2005 2011
Exports:
US$18 million
Exports:
US$120 million
30
© 2015 CGGC, Duke University
BRAZIL Y MEXICO: EXPORTACIONES DE DISPOSITIVOS MEDICOS
1998-2011
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
ExportValue(US$Million)
MEXICO
• Disposables: largest product category &
growing
• Brazilian government & private sector
actors working to promote price-competitive,
mid-tech exports.
•  Stabilizing disposables exports
•  Strong focus in instruments
•  Growing gains in capital equipment è
participation in electronics value chains
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
ExportValue(US$Million)
Year
BRAZIL	
31
© 2015 CGGC, Duke University
IMPLICATIONS OF C.R. MEDICAL DEVICES CASE FOR
GVC UPGRADING AND INDUSTRIAL POLICY
•  GVC	upgrading	is	broader	than	innovaUon	systems	
–  Use	high-value	acUviUes	to	diversify	and	climb	GVCs	
–  Move	to	profitable	niches	in	GVCs	(diverse	“rents”)	
–  Downgrading	outcomes	are	a	recurrent	issue	in	GVCs	
•  GVC	lead	firms	were	drivers	of	upgrading	(FDI	&	trade	to	enter	
high-tech	niches	of	medical	devices	GVC)	
•  Innova6on	boClenecks	require	strengthening	of	NIS	(e.g.,	
sterilizaUon	and	creaUon	of	Masters	in	Med	Device	Engineering)	
•  Target	MNCs	that	will	strengthen	country’s	GVCs	and	find	ways	
to	diminish	size	of	low-tech	segments			
•  Strengthen	the	role	of	domes6c	suppliers	and	use	TNCs	as	
learning	plaforms	
•  Explore	interna6onal	partnerships	to	expand	country’s	
capabiliUes	and	footprint	in	GVCs	
32
h^p://www.cggc.duke.edu	
ggere@soc.duke.edu
Gary Gereffi
33
NEW	TRENDS	IN	GVCs	&		
THE	ROLE	OF	EMERGING	ECONOMIES
34
The New Global Economy
Trends	
–  GVCs	as	80%	of	world	trade	(UNCTAD,	WIR	2013)	
–  Concentra6on	of	producUon	and	consumpUon	in	relaUvely	
few	large	emerging	economies	
–  Consolida6on	within	GVCs	in	fewer,	larger	suppliers	
–  More	South-South	trade	=	shiQing	end	markets	
	
Implica6ons	
–  More	opportuni6es	for	connecUon	and	upgrading	in	large	
emerging	economies	
–  Challenges	for	small	countries	and	firms	on	the	periphery	
–  Economic	upgrading	≠	Social	upgrading	
35
Seven Selected Emerging Economies
in Comparative Perspective, 2013
Agriculture Industry Services
China 1,357										 $2,209 $9,240 $6,807 $11,906 7.7 10 44 46
South	Korea 50																 $560 $1,305 $25,977 $33,140 3.0 3 39 58
Russia 143														 $527 $2,096 $14,611 $24,114 1.3 4 38 58
Mexico 122														 $380 $1,261 $10,307 $16,463 1.1 4 36 60
India 1,252										 $337 $1,877 $1,498 $5,412 5.0 17 26 57
Brazil 200														 $242 $2,246 $11,208 $15,038 2.5 6 26 68
South	Africa 53																 $95 $351 $6,618 $12,507 1.9 3 29 68
Total	or	Avg. 3,177										 $4,350 $18,376 $11,004 $16,940 3.2 7 34 59
World	Total 7,125 $17,635 $75,593 $10,610 $14,397 2.2
%	of	World	Total 45% 25% 24% 104% 118% 146%
Sources:	 (1)	World	Bank,	World	Development	Indicators:	http://data.worldbank.org
(2)	UN	Comtrade,	International	Trade	Center:	http://comtrade.un.org/
(3)	CIA	World	Factbook,	Country	Profiles:	https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/
Exports	
($Billions)²
Population	
(Millions)¹Country
Percent	of	GDP³GDP	growth	
YoY	(%)¹
GDP/capita	
(PPP)¹
GDP/capita	
(USD)¹
GDP	
($Billions)¹
Emerging Economy Export Profiles
(Percentages of total exports: 2013)
Primary	
Products
Resource	
Based
Low-Tech
Medium-
Tech High-Tech
Primary	
Products
Resource	
Based
Low-Tech
Medium-
Tech High-Tech
China 3% 8% 32% 23% 34% 2,209								 786% -4 0 -10 4 11
South	Korea 2% 17% 9% 43% 28% 560 226% 0 6 -8 10 -8
Russia 55% 29% 2% 8% 2% 527 412% 6 10 -3 -3 -2
Mexico 16% 8% 9% 42% 22% 380 129% 3 3 -6 4 -6
India 14% 38% 20% 18% 8% 337 702% 0 9 -19 7 3
Brazil 33% 33% 5% 21% 4% 242 340% 13 6 -7 -4 -8
South	Africa 25% 31% 6% 27% 3% 95 265% 8 1 -3 1 -1
*Exports	totals	do	not	include	uncategorized	exports,	and	therefore	they	may	not	equal	100%. Legend: x	≤	-6 -5	≤	x	<	0 0	≤	x	≤	9 x	≥	10
Change	in	
total	export	
value,
2000-2013
Percentage	point	change	in	
share	of	exports	by	sector,	2000-2013
Share	of	exports	by	sector	in	2013*
Total	
Export	
Value	
($Billions)
Emerging Economies:
Development Strategies in Conflict
China:		Combining	labor-intensive,	technology-
intensive	and	knowledge-intensive	GVCs	
•  iPhone	case:		East	Asian	regional	ecosystem	
•  InnovaUon	&	MNC	R&D	centers;	joint-ventures	
	
Brazil	
•  Soybean	value	chain	
•  Electronics	&	Foxconn	
	
South	Africa	
•  Climbing	natural	resource		GVCs	in	Africa
GVC-oriented Industrial Policies
The	GVC	framework	suggests	ways	to	enhance	the	
compeUUveness	of	local	economic	clusters:	
•  Focus	on	quality	and	high-value	ac6vi6es	in	
order	to	move	up	global	value	chains	
•  Target	MNCs	that	will	strengthen	country’s	GVCs	
and	create	dynamic	local	linkages			
•  Strengthen	the	role	of	domes6c	suppliers	and	
use	TNCs	as	learning	plaforms	
•  Explore	interna6onal	partnerships	to	expand	
country’s	capabiliUes	and	footprint	in	GVCs

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GVCs and Development - Guest Lecture for “The Politics of Market Competition in a Global Economy” Class

  • 1. GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS AND DEVELOPMENT 1 Gary Gereffi Director, Duke CGGC Duke University APSI class on GVCs March 28, 2017
  • 2. AGENDA 1.  Origins of the GVC Framework 2.  Clarifying Concepts: GVCs, Governance & Upgrading 3.  GVC Competition for US Market: China vs. Mexico 4.  Small Countries and High Tech: Medical Devices GVC in Costa Rica
  • 3. WHERE DO GVCS COME FROM? 3
  • 4. Where does the idea of Value Chains come from? 4
  • 5. MAJOR STEPPING STONES •  GCCs (global commodity chains) à GVCs (global value chains) (1990s-2000s) •  Rockefeller Foundation’s Global Value Chain Initiative (2000-2005) -- https://globalvaluechains.org/ •  Duke Center on Globalization, Governance & Competitiveness (Duke CGGC) (2005-present) -- http://www.cggc.duke.edu/ •  Adoption and Elaboration by International Organizations of GVC Approach to Development (ca. 2010-2016) -- https://dukegvcsummit.org/ –  E.g., World Trade Organization, OECD, World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, ILO, UNCTAD, UNIDO, USAID, DFID, GIZ, etc.
  • 7. INITIAL DISTINCTIONS •  Global Supply Chains –  Logistics (transportation focus: reduce time + costs) –  Trade Facilitation (lower barriers at the border) •  Global Commodity Chains –  Producer-driven chains: Trade + FDI (e.g., aircraft, autos, mining, oil) –  Buyer-driven chains: Trade w/o FDI (e.g., consumer goods); global subcontracting by retailers, brands & supermarkets •  Global Value Chains –  Rise of intermediate goods trade (import content of exports: 20% in 1990; 40% in 2010; 60% in 2030 – P. Lamy) –  Create, capture & sustain domestic value added (e.g., Chinese i- Phone example; build capabilities of domestic suppliers) •  Regional Value Chains –  Growing in importance, esp. since 2008-09 and in emerging economies; beyond fragmentation and EOI development model. 7
  • 8. MASTER GVC CONCEPTS: GOVERNANCE & UPGRADING 8 Global value chain analysis provides both conceptual and methodological tools for examining the global economy •  Top-down: a focus on lead firms and inter-firm networks, using varied typologies of industrial “governance” •  Bottom-up: a focus on countries and regions, which are analyzed in terms of various trajectories of economic, social and environmental “upgrading” (or “downgrading”)
  • 9. LINKING GLOBAL CHAINS AND LOCAL CLUSTERS 9
  • 10. Five GVC Governance Types 10 G. Gereffi, J. Humphrey & T. Sturgeon, “The governance of global value chains,” Review of Interna.onal Poli.cal Economy 12, 1 (2005), p. 89.
  • 11. A Parsimonious Model: Three Explanatory Variables 11 1. Complexity of information required for a transaction 2. Extent to which this information can be codified 3. Supplier capabilities in relation to a transaction’s requirements
  • 12. Determinants of GVC Governance Governance Type Complexity of transactions Ability to codify transactions Capabilities in the supply-base Degree of explicit coordination and power asymmetry Market Low High High Modular High High High Relational High Low High Captive High High Low Hierarchy High Low Low Low High Network org. forms Gereffi at al, “The governance of global value chains,” RIPE (2005), p. 87.
  • 13. Dynamics in Global Value Chain Governance Governance Type Complexity of transactions Ability to codify transactions Capabilities in the supply-base Market Low High High Modular  High ‚ High „ High Relational High ƒ Low … High † Captive High High Low Hierarchy High Low Low  increasing complexity of transactions (harder to codify transactions; effective decrease in supplier competence) ‚ decreasing complexity of transactions (easier to codify transactions; effective increase in supplier competence) ƒ better codification of transactions (open or de facto standards, computerization) „ de-codification of transactions (technological change, new products, new processes) … increasing supplier competence (decreased complexity, better codification, learning) † decreasing supplier competence.(increased complexity, new technologies, new entrants) High High Gereffi at al, “The governance of global value chains,” RIPE (2005), p. 90.
  • 14. WHERE ARE THE HIGH-VALUE ACTIVITIES IN GVCS? 14
  • 15. Value Chain – Types of Upgrading Source: UNIDO, 2014
  • 16. GVC BATTLE FOR THE U.S. MARKET: CHINA VS. MEXICO 16
  • 17. §  Head-to-head compeUUon in U.S. market §  China is world’s leading exporter of many manufactures, esp. consumer goods §  China and Mexico are typically among the top three exporters to the U.S. market in many product categories §  China is moving ahead of Mexico with dominant market shares in the United States, especially in 2000-2005 period Mexico vs. China 17
  • 18. Mexico's and China's Competing Exports to US Market 18 SITC Category Product Value (billions) Share of US market Value (billions) Share of US market Value (billions) Share of US market Mexico 6.4 11.5 5.6 9.6 13.5 16.6 -1.9 7.0 China 6.3 11.3 28.6 49.3 53.3 65.7 38.0 16.4 US Total 55.9 57.9 81.1 Mexico 9.1 20.6 10.8 13.6 12.1 10.2 -7.0 -3.4 China 4.6 10.3 29.6 37.3 68.7 58.0 26.9 20.8 US Total 44.3 79.5 118.4 Mexico 3.1 18.3 5.0 21.8 7.2 21.4 3.5 -0.4 China 2.0 11.9 6.1 26.6 11.2 33.2 14.7 6.6 US Total 17.1 23.1 33.7 Mexico 4.6 16.3 10.2 22.2 19.1 30.4 5.8 8.2 China 0.4 1.5 3.6 7.8 8.3 13.2 6.2 5.4 US Total 28.4 46.2 62.9 Mexico 3.2 16.9 4.6 13.6 7.6 18.3 -3.3 4.7 China 4.5 23.6 16.2 47.7 19.2 46.3 24.1 -1.4 US Total 18.9 33.9 41.5 Mexico 8.7 13.6 4.7 5.8 4.0 4.4 -7.8 -1.4 China 8.5 13.2 27.1 33.4 34.2 37.9 20.2 4.5 US Total 64.3 81.2 90.2 Source: US Department of Commerce (http://dataweb.usitc.gov), Downloaded Aug 26, 2015 84 Apparel and Cothing 778 Electrical Machinery 784 Auto Parts 2007 821 Furniture 752 Automatic Data Processing Machines 764 Telecom Equipment 2014 Change in Market Share 2007-2014 Change in Market Share 2000-2007 2000
  • 19. 19 Source: USITC http://dataweb.usitc.gov downloaded Aug 26, 2015
  • 20. 20 Source: USITC http://dataweb.usitc.gov downloaded Aug 26, 2015
  • 21. 21 Source: USITC http://dataweb.usitc.gov downloaded Aug 26, 2015
  • 22. 22 Source: USITC http://dataweb.usitc.gov downloaded Aug 26, 2015
  • 23. §  China is a lower-cost producer overall (labor costs lower, but not transport & tariffs) §  China has huge scale economies §  China has a coherent and mulUdimensional upgrading strategy – diversify and add high value acUviUes §  China is using direct foreign investment to promote “fast learning” in new industries §  China uses access to its domes6c market to a^ract TNCs and promote knowledge spillovers Why is China gaining U.S. market share over Mexico? 23
  • 24. China’s Supply Chain Cities in Apparel Source: David Barboza, “In roaring China, sweaters are west of socks city,” New York Times, Dec. 24, 2004. 24
  • 25. 25 q  What kinds of work are Chinese, Indian, and American engineers actually doing? •  Answer: Not just product adaptation, but cutting-edge research & commercialization q  China: More than 1,200 MNC R&D Centers •  GE’s China Technology Center: Advanced research in energy storage, environmental management •  Microsoft Research Asia: Cutting-edge graphics & multimedia research
  • 26. © 2015 CGGC, Duke University COSTA RICA IN THE MEDICAL DEVICES GVC 26
  • 27. © 2015 CGGC, Duke University Components Manufacturing Plastics extrusion & molding Precision metal works Electronics development Software Development Weaving/Knitting Textiles Assembly Packaging Sterilization Assembly / Production Distribution & Marketing Resin Metals Chemicals Textiles Input Suppliers Disposables US$575.5 million Instruments US$270.5 million Capital Equip. US$32.5 million Therapeutics US$301 million Main Segments: Exports Post-Sales Services Consulting Maintenance, Repair Training Research & Product Development Regulatory Approval Process Development Sustaining Engineering Prototype Local firms are mainly in packaging & support services (12 of 19) versus 4 in limited role in plastics molding & metal finishing and 1 OEM with exports under $2 million. Number of Firms 0 - 5 6 - 10 11 - 15 16 - 20 COSTA RICA IN THE MEDICAL DEVICES GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN, 2012 Wholesale distributors Individual Patients Doctors & Nurses Hospitals (Public/Private) 27
  • 28. © 2015 CGGC, Duke University 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ExportValues($USMilion) Year Costa Rica's Medical Exports by Product Category: 1998-2011 Disposables Therapeutics Instruments Capital Equipment EVOLUTION OF MEDICAL DEVICES EXPORTS FROM COSTA RICA •  Disposables still the largest product category exported, but no longer a strong growth area. •  Exports in surgical instruments have grown steadily since 2005. •  Therapeutics has become 2nd largest category since 2008; likely to increase as newly established firms complete transfer of new product lines. •  Limited export of highest value capital equipment (eg. Electronic/software devices) 28
  • 29. © 2015 CGGC, Duke University Entry Year Firm Characteristics Main Product Export Category Core Market Segments Product Examples Select Firms Up to 2000 24 firms: 8 US 15 CR 1 German 4 OEMs 8 Components 1 Input distributor 7 Packaging 1 Finishing 3 Support services Disposables Drug delivery; Women’s health Intravenous tubing (I) Mastectomy bra (I) Hospira; Baxter; Amoena; Corbel 2001–2004 13 firms: 9 US 3 CR 1 Colombian 3 OEMS 6 Components 1 Finishing 1 Logistics provider 2 Support services Instruments Endoscopic surgery Biopsy forceps (II) Arthrocare; Boston Scientific; Oberg Industries 2005–2008 8 firms: 7 US 1 Puerto Rico 2 OEM 4 Components 1 Packaging 1 Finishing Therapeutics Cosmetic surgery; Women’s health & urology Breast implants (III) Minimally invasive devices for uterine surgery (II) Allergan; Tegra Medical; Specialty Coating Systems 2009–2012 21 firms: 16 US 1 CR 1 Ireland 1 Japan 2 Joint ventures (US-CR) 5 OEMS 7 Components 2 Non-OEM assemblers 1 Input Distributor 2 Sterilization 2 Packaging Therapeutics Disposables Instruments Cardiovascular Drug delivery Heart valves (III) Dialysis catheters (III) Guide wires (III) Compression socks (I) Abbott Vascular St. Jude Medical Covidien Moog Synergy Health Volcano Corp. FIRMS IN THE COSTA RICA MEDICAL DEVICES SECTOR 29
  • 30. © 2015 CGGC, Duke University© 2015 CGGC, Duke University UPGRADING SUCCESS: A LEADING MEDICAL DEVICES MNC 2010 Initial plant reopens after restructuring •  2004: Manufacturing functions •  2012: Engineering for process improvements èFocused on cardiology segment; strategy – to alleviate R&D costs in the US. Functional Upgrading •  Biopsy forcepsè Labor intensive, basic metal works & extrusion. •  Urethral stentè Thermoforming, laser marking, coating capabilities. •  Guide Wires è Sophisticated Laser cutting & welding. •  Today – CR facilities cover 42 manufacturing processes. Product & Process Upgrading •  Gastroenterology segment è Urology è CardiovascularMarket Diversification •  Recent co-location of sterilization vendors will allow the firm to export directly to global distribution centersForward Linkages 2004 First production plant opens in Costa Rica (10,000m2) 2008 Second plant opens. (32,000m2) First plant restructuring 2005 2011 Exports: US$18 million Exports: US$120 million 30
  • 31. © 2015 CGGC, Duke University BRAZIL Y MEXICO: EXPORTACIONES DE DISPOSITIVOS MEDICOS 1998-2011 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 ExportValue(US$Million) MEXICO • Disposables: largest product category & growing • Brazilian government & private sector actors working to promote price-competitive, mid-tech exports. •  Stabilizing disposables exports •  Strong focus in instruments •  Growing gains in capital equipment è participation in electronics value chains 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 ExportValue(US$Million) Year BRAZIL 31
  • 32. © 2015 CGGC, Duke University IMPLICATIONS OF C.R. MEDICAL DEVICES CASE FOR GVC UPGRADING AND INDUSTRIAL POLICY •  GVC upgrading is broader than innovaUon systems –  Use high-value acUviUes to diversify and climb GVCs –  Move to profitable niches in GVCs (diverse “rents”) –  Downgrading outcomes are a recurrent issue in GVCs •  GVC lead firms were drivers of upgrading (FDI & trade to enter high-tech niches of medical devices GVC) •  Innova6on boClenecks require strengthening of NIS (e.g., sterilizaUon and creaUon of Masters in Med Device Engineering) •  Target MNCs that will strengthen country’s GVCs and find ways to diminish size of low-tech segments •  Strengthen the role of domes6c suppliers and use TNCs as learning plaforms •  Explore interna6onal partnerships to expand country’s capabiliUes and footprint in GVCs 32
  • 35. The New Global Economy Trends –  GVCs as 80% of world trade (UNCTAD, WIR 2013) –  Concentra6on of producUon and consumpUon in relaUvely few large emerging economies –  Consolida6on within GVCs in fewer, larger suppliers –  More South-South trade = shiQing end markets Implica6ons –  More opportuni6es for connecUon and upgrading in large emerging economies –  Challenges for small countries and firms on the periphery –  Economic upgrading ≠ Social upgrading 35
  • 36. Seven Selected Emerging Economies in Comparative Perspective, 2013 Agriculture Industry Services China 1,357 $2,209 $9,240 $6,807 $11,906 7.7 10 44 46 South Korea 50 $560 $1,305 $25,977 $33,140 3.0 3 39 58 Russia 143 $527 $2,096 $14,611 $24,114 1.3 4 38 58 Mexico 122 $380 $1,261 $10,307 $16,463 1.1 4 36 60 India 1,252 $337 $1,877 $1,498 $5,412 5.0 17 26 57 Brazil 200 $242 $2,246 $11,208 $15,038 2.5 6 26 68 South Africa 53 $95 $351 $6,618 $12,507 1.9 3 29 68 Total or Avg. 3,177 $4,350 $18,376 $11,004 $16,940 3.2 7 34 59 World Total 7,125 $17,635 $75,593 $10,610 $14,397 2.2 % of World Total 45% 25% 24% 104% 118% 146% Sources: (1) World Bank, World Development Indicators: http://data.worldbank.org (2) UN Comtrade, International Trade Center: http://comtrade.un.org/ (3) CIA World Factbook, Country Profiles: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ Exports ($Billions)² Population (Millions)¹Country Percent of GDP³GDP growth YoY (%)¹ GDP/capita (PPP)¹ GDP/capita (USD)¹ GDP ($Billions)¹
  • 37. Emerging Economy Export Profiles (Percentages of total exports: 2013) Primary Products Resource Based Low-Tech Medium- Tech High-Tech Primary Products Resource Based Low-Tech Medium- Tech High-Tech China 3% 8% 32% 23% 34% 2,209 786% -4 0 -10 4 11 South Korea 2% 17% 9% 43% 28% 560 226% 0 6 -8 10 -8 Russia 55% 29% 2% 8% 2% 527 412% 6 10 -3 -3 -2 Mexico 16% 8% 9% 42% 22% 380 129% 3 3 -6 4 -6 India 14% 38% 20% 18% 8% 337 702% 0 9 -19 7 3 Brazil 33% 33% 5% 21% 4% 242 340% 13 6 -7 -4 -8 South Africa 25% 31% 6% 27% 3% 95 265% 8 1 -3 1 -1 *Exports totals do not include uncategorized exports, and therefore they may not equal 100%. Legend: x ≤ -6 -5 ≤ x < 0 0 ≤ x ≤ 9 x ≥ 10 Change in total export value, 2000-2013 Percentage point change in share of exports by sector, 2000-2013 Share of exports by sector in 2013* Total Export Value ($Billions)
  • 38. Emerging Economies: Development Strategies in Conflict China: Combining labor-intensive, technology- intensive and knowledge-intensive GVCs •  iPhone case: East Asian regional ecosystem •  InnovaUon & MNC R&D centers; joint-ventures Brazil •  Soybean value chain •  Electronics & Foxconn South Africa •  Climbing natural resource GVCs in Africa
  • 39. GVC-oriented Industrial Policies The GVC framework suggests ways to enhance the compeUUveness of local economic clusters: •  Focus on quality and high-value ac6vi6es in order to move up global value chains •  Target MNCs that will strengthen country’s GVCs and create dynamic local linkages •  Strengthen the role of domes6c suppliers and use TNCs as learning plaforms •  Explore interna6onal partnerships to expand country’s capabiliUes and footprint in GVCs