MAXENT and CaNaSTA models were used to predict changes in coffee suitability and quality in Nicaragua and Veracruz, Mexico under climate change. In Nicaragua, the suitable coffee zone is predicted to shift upwards in elevation by 2050, decreasing available land. In Veracruz, areas highly suitable for acidity in coffee taste are predicted to shift to higher elevations by 2050. Adaptation strategies are urgently needed given coffee's long crop cycle and global supply chains.

1. The future of coffee farmers’ livelihoods and your
daily coffee
Peter Läderach¹, Anton Eitzinger¹, Mark Lundy¹, Andy Jarvis¹, Julian Ramirez¹ and Emiliano Pérez-Portilla²
¹ International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Managua, Nicaragua and Cali, Colombia
²CRUO- Universidad Autónoma Chapingo, Mexico
The Problem
According to the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report is Mesoamerica one of the regions that will suffer severe
impacts from a progressively changing climate. Coffee production is the mainstay of thousands of families and the major contributor to the
agricultural GDP of these countries. Decisions makers need to know where and how climate change will impact in order to make informed
strategic decisions for the future.
The Solution
We have used Maxent to predict and quantify the changes in coffee suitability in Nicaragua and CaNaSTA to predict and quantify the changes in
coffee beverage quality in Veracruz, Mexico.
The Results
Nicaragua Veracruz
MAXENT results indicate an important decrease in the suitability of In Veracruz the analyses focused on the sensorial attribute of acidity of
coffee-producing areas in Nicaragua by 2050. the brewed coffee, which together with aroma is the most important
attribute that distinguishes Veracruz coffee. The denomination of
There is a general pattern of origin of Veracruz coffee is built on these two characteristics.
decreases in the area suitable for
CaNaSTA predicts that by 2050 the
coffee and a decrease in suitability
areas with higher suitability will
within these areas. Suitability for
decrease drastically and the highly
coffee will move upwards on the
suitable areas for the acidity
altitudinal gradient with climate
characteristic will move towards
change, with lower-altitude areas
higher altitudes (Map Veracruz).
losing suitability the most (Map
Nicaragua).
As climate change progresses,
areas at higher altitudes will
The optimum coffee-producing
become suitable for producing
zone in Nicaragua is currently at
high-acidity coffee. Between today
an altitude of elevation between
and 2050 areas at altitudes
800 and 1400 masl; by 2050 the
between 900 masl and 1500 masl
optimum elevation will increase to
will suffer the highest decrease in
1200 and 1600 masl. As the
suitability while the areas above
suitable altitude increases less and
1800 masl will have the highest
less land area to produce coffee
increase in suitability (Graph
will be available (Graph
Veracruz).
Nicaragua).
Conclusions
Due to the long lead-time of perennial cropping systems and the complexity of global supply chains for coffee, it is urgent to identify
appropriate adaptation strategies. These strategies must operate locally but be connected with the global supply chain. CIAT is currently
working with the private sector, the academia and 7000 farmers in Central America on chain inclusive adaptation strategies
(http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/dapablogs/).
Current climate: Data of more than 46.000 meteorological stations
METHODOLOGY
was used. (Hijmans et al., 2005; www.worldclim.org)
Future climate: 18 downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCM)
and the A2a emission scenario (business as usual) was used.
Maxent: A general-purpose method for making predictions or
inferences from incomplete data sets. (Phillips et al., 2006;
www.cs.princeton.edu/~schapire/maxent/)
CaNaSTA: Employs Bayesian statistics and is particularly useful for
analysis of highly specialized or underutilized crops. CaNaSTA
performs particularly well with limited data points. (O’Brien, 2004)
Data points: In Nicaragua we used close to 5.000 data points from
coffee farms and in Veracruz more than 100 data points and
additionally sensorial beverage quality assessments of each farms
coffee.