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The Future of Energy in Smart Cities
Insights from Multiple Expert Discussions
27 September 2018
Future of Energy – The Nordic Perspective
A workshop is taking place at Nordic Edge in collaboration with ISPIM.
With a focus on future needs of smart cities, it is exploring what will be the
pivotal issues for energy supply and the key opportunities for innovation.
https://www.nordicedgeexpo.org/program/ispim-immersive-workshop
Global Insights
The starting views for this workshop have been selected from multiple
expert discussions on the future of energy, cities and transport that
have taken place over the past few years around the world.
Shell’s Sky Scenario
At the macro level, Shell’s most recent scenarios highlight that, if we are to
achieve the Paris Agreement ambitions, there needs to be a huge growth in
renewable energy as well as more nuclear and continued fossil contribution.
Energy Storage
Low cost, efficient storage, and particularly electricity storage, is the missing
piece in the renewables jigsaw. If solved, it can enable truly distributed solar
energy as well as accelerate the electrification of the transport sector.
Smart Grids
Pervasive smart meters, networked appliances and dynamic pricing drive a
reengineering of the electricity supply sector. Multiple fully inter-connected
IoT driven systems reduce waste, increase reliability and improve resilience.
Machine Learning Taking Control
With the rise of AI and autonomous computing, machine learning is
increasingly put in control of managing our energy systems –
quickly realizing efficiency savings of around 50% in some sectors.
Falling Cost of Solar
The consistent decline in the cost of solar PV modules over time follows
a 20% reduction for every doubling of production. At 2c per kWh, solar takes
off to become the world’s leading energy source within two decades.
Rise of P2P Micro-Actors
There is a blurring of energy consumers and producers to ‘prosumers’ who
do both: We see a move to multiple peer-to-peer micro-actors working
collectively across communities supported by new sharing platforms.
Accelerating EV
Leading OEMs see that, by 2030, around 3 in 10 new vehicles being sold
globally are EVs. This view has changed from 1 in 10 only two years ago.
EV charging spreads rapidly supporting new mobility business models.
Energy Security
Faced with both increasing nationalism and rising tension between
key energy suppliers, more high energy consumption countries seek to
ensure 100% energy security - even if it comes at a price.
HVDC Transmission
Advances in high-voltage DC transmission create the lower-cost / lower-loss
power super highway. Long distance transmission changes supply dynamics
and supports concentrated solar power and massive off-shore wind farms.
Influence of Key Cities
Cities are more important than countries and increasingly influential.
Often centres for innovation, they take the lead in setting the new standards
on air quality and EV adoption – many moving ahead of national targets.
Energy Harvesting
As improving energy efficiency becomes a central part of smart city
strategies, multiple means of better harvesting energy come to the fore.
More kinetic, passive solar, electro-magnetic and waste solutions emerge.
Big Business Defines the Future
Large multinational energy consumers define the future energy mix.
100% renewable energy becomes the norm for key sectors and spurs
development ahead of government and energy suppliers’ expectations
Deeper Collaboration
Partnerships shift to become more dynamic, long-term, multi-party
collaborations. Competitor alliances and public participation drive regulators
to create new legal frameworks for open, empathetic collaboration.
Core Questions
In the workshop we will be asking which of these will have greatest impact,
what other issues will influence Smart City energy provision and where we
will see the most significant innovation over the next decade.
FUTURE AGENDA OVERVIEW
Future Agenda
Future Agenda is an open think tank and advisory firm that helps
organisations to understand emerging opportunities, make more
informed decisions and place better, bolder strategic growth bets.
INSIGHT IMPACT
Global
Foresight
Industry
Insight
Bespoke
Research
New
Services
New
Products
New
Strategies
Core Team
Extended
Team
The Global
Network
Shell Technology Futures
In 2004 and 2007 we designed and ran global foresight projects for Shell
identifying the key technologies that would impact the next 20 years.
The projections in this research have proven to be over 95% accurate.
The World in 2020 and The World in 2025
In 2010 / 2015 we led unique multi-topic, collaborative global open foresight
programmes looking at the key changes for the next decade across 25 topics.
These included the future of transport, cities, data, health and energy.
www.futureagenda.org
Focused Open Foresight Projects
We run focused global projects exploring specific topics in depth.
Undertaken in collaboration with multiple leading organisations, these
generate rich, informed perspectives of emerging trends and opportunities.
Future of Cities
(2015/16)
https://www.futureofcities.city
Future of Philanthropy
(2016/17)
https://www.thefutureofphilanthropy.org
Future of Patient Data
(2017/18)
https://www.futureofpatientdata.org
Future Value of Data
(2018 – in progress)
Collaborative Approach
Multiple expert workshops around the world are hosted by different
organisations. The insights from all the events are shared openly.
A global report provides an informed view of pivotal future changes.
Level of Privacy Regulation:
DLA Piper https://www.dlapiperdataprotection.com
Heavy Robust Moderate Limited
Current Healthcare Expenditure
as a %GDP (2015)
COUNTRY TOTAL GOVT PRIVATE
San Francisco 19 JAN 2018
C Top 3 Challenges O Top 3 Opportunities E Top 3 Emerging Issues
London 14 DEC 2017 Oslo 30 OCT 2017
Dubai 27 SEPT 2017
C Data Gaps
Infrastructure
Digital Skills
O Predictive Analysis
Artificial Intelligence
Genetic Profiling
E Standardised Measures
Mental Health
Ulterior Motives
Johannesburg 10 OCT 2017
Frankfurt 25 JAN 2018
Brussels 9 NOV 2017
Boston 17 JAN 2018
Toronto 16 JAN 2018
Future of Patient Data (2017/18)
Locations and Key Insights
Australia 9.4 6.5 2.9
Belgium 10.5 8.6 1.8
Canada 10.4 7.7 2.8
UK 9.9 7.9 1.9
Germany 11.2 9.4 1.7
India 3.9 1.0 2.9
Norway 10.0 8.5 1.5
Singapore 4.3 2.2 2.0
South Africa 8.0 4.4 3.6
UAE 3.5 2.5 1.0
USA 16.8 8.5 8.4
C Combining Data Sets
Digital Skills
Resistance from HCPs
O Personal Data Sharing
Genetic Profiling
Artificial Intelligence
E Inequality
Privatization of Health Data
Data Sovereignty
Sydney 15 NOV 2017
C Linkability of Open Data
Data Gaps
Ulterior Motives
O Genetic Profiling
Predictive Analysis
Data Marketplaces
E New Models
Informed Consent
New Entrants
C Combining Data Sets
Getting Closer to the Patient
Expanding Set of Data
O Predictive Analysis
Personalisation
Artificial Intelligence
E Standardised Measures
Inequality
Global Data Sharing
C Ulterior Motives
Resistance from HCPs
Trust
O Artificial Intelligence
New Business Models
Mental Health
E Data Sovereignty
Patient Empowerment
Data Marketplaces
C Data Ownership
Ulterior Motives
Trust
O Data Marketplaces
Artificial Intelligence
Personalisation
E New Business Models
Privatisation of Health Data
Informed Consent
C Expanding Data Set
Combining Data Sets
Regulation
O Data Marketplaces
Personalisation
Artificial Intelligence
E Informed Consent
Data Sovereignty
Inequality
C Integration of Data
Data Quality
Unstructured Data
O Individualized Medicine
Artificial Intelligence
Data Marketplace
E Privatisation of Health data
New Business Models
Value of Health Data
C Getting Closer to the Patient
Combining Data Sets
Data Gaps
O Genetic Profiling
Artificial Intelligence
Proxy Data
E Inequality
Standardised Measures
Privatisation of Health data
C Combining Data Sets
Trust
Linkability of Open Data
O Embedded AI
Getting Closer to the Patient
Predictive Analysis
E New Business Models
Standardised Measures
Inequality
Singapore 13 NOV 2017
C Regulation
Combining Data Sets
Getting Closer to the Patient
O Artificial Intelligence
Individual Custodianship
Personalisation
E Data Sovereignty
Standardised Measures
Value of Health Data
Mumbai 23 NOV 2017
C Data Quality
Ulterior Motives
Data Ownership
O Data Marketplaces
India Setting Standards
Artificial Intelligence
E Informed Consent
New Models
Inequality
Large
Corporates
Technology
Firms NGOs Economists Government
Academia
/ Research Start-Ups Influencers
24
Immersive Workshops
Our workshops bring together a mix of expertise with varied perspectives to
help challenge and build a richer view. They are immersive, inclusive events
that explore future shifts and detail impacts, risks and opportunities.
Bespoke Support
We also provide bespoke research and advisory support for a
wide range of leading organisations exploring emerging issues,
identifying strategic options and defining future pathways.
Future Agenda
84 Brook Street
London UK
W1K 5EH
+44 203 0088 141
www.futureagenda.org
www.futureagenda.net
@futureagenda

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Future of energy nordic edge - 27 sept 2018

  • 1. The Future of Energy in Smart Cities Insights from Multiple Expert Discussions 27 September 2018
  • 2. Future of Energy – The Nordic Perspective A workshop is taking place at Nordic Edge in collaboration with ISPIM. With a focus on future needs of smart cities, it is exploring what will be the pivotal issues for energy supply and the key opportunities for innovation. https://www.nordicedgeexpo.org/program/ispim-immersive-workshop
  • 3. Global Insights The starting views for this workshop have been selected from multiple expert discussions on the future of energy, cities and transport that have taken place over the past few years around the world.
  • 4. Shell’s Sky Scenario At the macro level, Shell’s most recent scenarios highlight that, if we are to achieve the Paris Agreement ambitions, there needs to be a huge growth in renewable energy as well as more nuclear and continued fossil contribution.
  • 5. Energy Storage Low cost, efficient storage, and particularly electricity storage, is the missing piece in the renewables jigsaw. If solved, it can enable truly distributed solar energy as well as accelerate the electrification of the transport sector.
  • 6. Smart Grids Pervasive smart meters, networked appliances and dynamic pricing drive a reengineering of the electricity supply sector. Multiple fully inter-connected IoT driven systems reduce waste, increase reliability and improve resilience.
  • 7. Machine Learning Taking Control With the rise of AI and autonomous computing, machine learning is increasingly put in control of managing our energy systems – quickly realizing efficiency savings of around 50% in some sectors.
  • 8. Falling Cost of Solar The consistent decline in the cost of solar PV modules over time follows a 20% reduction for every doubling of production. At 2c per kWh, solar takes off to become the world’s leading energy source within two decades.
  • 9. Rise of P2P Micro-Actors There is a blurring of energy consumers and producers to ‘prosumers’ who do both: We see a move to multiple peer-to-peer micro-actors working collectively across communities supported by new sharing platforms.
  • 10. Accelerating EV Leading OEMs see that, by 2030, around 3 in 10 new vehicles being sold globally are EVs. This view has changed from 1 in 10 only two years ago. EV charging spreads rapidly supporting new mobility business models.
  • 11. Energy Security Faced with both increasing nationalism and rising tension between key energy suppliers, more high energy consumption countries seek to ensure 100% energy security - even if it comes at a price.
  • 12. HVDC Transmission Advances in high-voltage DC transmission create the lower-cost / lower-loss power super highway. Long distance transmission changes supply dynamics and supports concentrated solar power and massive off-shore wind farms.
  • 13. Influence of Key Cities Cities are more important than countries and increasingly influential. Often centres for innovation, they take the lead in setting the new standards on air quality and EV adoption – many moving ahead of national targets.
  • 14. Energy Harvesting As improving energy efficiency becomes a central part of smart city strategies, multiple means of better harvesting energy come to the fore. More kinetic, passive solar, electro-magnetic and waste solutions emerge.
  • 15. Big Business Defines the Future Large multinational energy consumers define the future energy mix. 100% renewable energy becomes the norm for key sectors and spurs development ahead of government and energy suppliers’ expectations
  • 16. Deeper Collaboration Partnerships shift to become more dynamic, long-term, multi-party collaborations. Competitor alliances and public participation drive regulators to create new legal frameworks for open, empathetic collaboration.
  • 17. Core Questions In the workshop we will be asking which of these will have greatest impact, what other issues will influence Smart City energy provision and where we will see the most significant innovation over the next decade.
  • 19. Future Agenda Future Agenda is an open think tank and advisory firm that helps organisations to understand emerging opportunities, make more informed decisions and place better, bolder strategic growth bets. INSIGHT IMPACT Global Foresight Industry Insight Bespoke Research New Services New Products New Strategies Core Team Extended Team The Global Network
  • 20. Shell Technology Futures In 2004 and 2007 we designed and ran global foresight projects for Shell identifying the key technologies that would impact the next 20 years. The projections in this research have proven to be over 95% accurate.
  • 21. The World in 2020 and The World in 2025 In 2010 / 2015 we led unique multi-topic, collaborative global open foresight programmes looking at the key changes for the next decade across 25 topics. These included the future of transport, cities, data, health and energy. www.futureagenda.org
  • 22. Focused Open Foresight Projects We run focused global projects exploring specific topics in depth. Undertaken in collaboration with multiple leading organisations, these generate rich, informed perspectives of emerging trends and opportunities. Future of Cities (2015/16) https://www.futureofcities.city Future of Philanthropy (2016/17) https://www.thefutureofphilanthropy.org Future of Patient Data (2017/18) https://www.futureofpatientdata.org Future Value of Data (2018 – in progress)
  • 23. Collaborative Approach Multiple expert workshops around the world are hosted by different organisations. The insights from all the events are shared openly. A global report provides an informed view of pivotal future changes. Level of Privacy Regulation: DLA Piper https://www.dlapiperdataprotection.com Heavy Robust Moderate Limited Current Healthcare Expenditure as a %GDP (2015) COUNTRY TOTAL GOVT PRIVATE San Francisco 19 JAN 2018 C Top 3 Challenges O Top 3 Opportunities E Top 3 Emerging Issues London 14 DEC 2017 Oslo 30 OCT 2017 Dubai 27 SEPT 2017 C Data Gaps Infrastructure Digital Skills O Predictive Analysis Artificial Intelligence Genetic Profiling E Standardised Measures Mental Health Ulterior Motives Johannesburg 10 OCT 2017 Frankfurt 25 JAN 2018 Brussels 9 NOV 2017 Boston 17 JAN 2018 Toronto 16 JAN 2018 Future of Patient Data (2017/18) Locations and Key Insights Australia 9.4 6.5 2.9 Belgium 10.5 8.6 1.8 Canada 10.4 7.7 2.8 UK 9.9 7.9 1.9 Germany 11.2 9.4 1.7 India 3.9 1.0 2.9 Norway 10.0 8.5 1.5 Singapore 4.3 2.2 2.0 South Africa 8.0 4.4 3.6 UAE 3.5 2.5 1.0 USA 16.8 8.5 8.4 C Combining Data Sets Digital Skills Resistance from HCPs O Personal Data Sharing Genetic Profiling Artificial Intelligence E Inequality Privatization of Health Data Data Sovereignty Sydney 15 NOV 2017 C Linkability of Open Data Data Gaps Ulterior Motives O Genetic Profiling Predictive Analysis Data Marketplaces E New Models Informed Consent New Entrants C Combining Data Sets Getting Closer to the Patient Expanding Set of Data O Predictive Analysis Personalisation Artificial Intelligence E Standardised Measures Inequality Global Data Sharing C Ulterior Motives Resistance from HCPs Trust O Artificial Intelligence New Business Models Mental Health E Data Sovereignty Patient Empowerment Data Marketplaces C Data Ownership Ulterior Motives Trust O Data Marketplaces Artificial Intelligence Personalisation E New Business Models Privatisation of Health Data Informed Consent C Expanding Data Set Combining Data Sets Regulation O Data Marketplaces Personalisation Artificial Intelligence E Informed Consent Data Sovereignty Inequality C Integration of Data Data Quality Unstructured Data O Individualized Medicine Artificial Intelligence Data Marketplace E Privatisation of Health data New Business Models Value of Health Data C Getting Closer to the Patient Combining Data Sets Data Gaps O Genetic Profiling Artificial Intelligence Proxy Data E Inequality Standardised Measures Privatisation of Health data C Combining Data Sets Trust Linkability of Open Data O Embedded AI Getting Closer to the Patient Predictive Analysis E New Business Models Standardised Measures Inequality Singapore 13 NOV 2017 C Regulation Combining Data Sets Getting Closer to the Patient O Artificial Intelligence Individual Custodianship Personalisation E Data Sovereignty Standardised Measures Value of Health Data Mumbai 23 NOV 2017 C Data Quality Ulterior Motives Data Ownership O Data Marketplaces India Setting Standards Artificial Intelligence E Informed Consent New Models Inequality
  • 24. Large Corporates Technology Firms NGOs Economists Government Academia / Research Start-Ups Influencers 24 Immersive Workshops Our workshops bring together a mix of expertise with varied perspectives to help challenge and build a richer view. They are immersive, inclusive events that explore future shifts and detail impacts, risks and opportunities.
  • 25. Bespoke Support We also provide bespoke research and advisory support for a wide range of leading organisations exploring emerging issues, identifying strategic options and defining future pathways.
  • 26. Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London UK W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 www.futureagenda.org www.futureagenda.net @futureagenda