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Time is running out:
Focus on Priorities and Impact
for Our Sustainable Future
Impact School 2017
Humboldt Institute
for Internet & Society
30.11.2017, Berlin
Dr. Gregor Hagedorn
Twitter de: @Wozukunft
Twitter en: @BiodivMatters
FIRST A BRIEF SURVEY:
A quality life for our children:
1. Who believes, we are on track?
2. Who knows how to get on track?
3. Who simply does not know enough?
4. Who thinks it is hopeless?
Please Comment at:
@BiodivMatters
#ImpactSchool2017
Impact: We discussed …
Impact: Dissemination and Uptake
Researchers consider their results interesting.
Do other people agree? How to know?
Do other people see the results?
Does the researcher know who should?
(Audience-specific communication vs. Spam!)
Are they being informed? (Dissemination!)
Can they? (Open Access, Open Data!)
→ Uptake! Success!
→ Uptake! Success!
… but earlier …
Impact: Research selection
Is the research Nice or Necessary?
(Not same as: Curiosity-Driven
vs. Problem-Driven research)
Are researchers aware of Societal Challenges?
Which Timeframes do they consider?
Which Personal Background and Experiences?
Plus: Competences, motivation, lab, equipment …
Impact review is standard for EU,
but mostly absent in Germany!
OUR PLANET
Our Spaceship …
RAUMSCHIFF
Spaceship Management:
Stored Goods and Energy
Available Waste Storage
Recycling Productivity
Management, Repair, &
Innovation Capacity of Crew
How does our command bridge look?
Command bridge - a bit dated?, 1968
On the Radar:
The Status of our
Planetary Boundaries
Planetary Boundaries w. Legend (Print)
GraphrecreatedG.HagedornCCBY-SA4.0,afterSteffen,Richardson,Rockström,etal.2015.Planetaryboundaries:Guidinghumandevelopmentonachangingplanet(CLOSEDCONTENT)
Beyond
boundary
(HIGH RISK)
Zone of
Uncertainty
Safe Zone
Unknown
boundary,
not yet
quantified
GraphrecreatedG.HagedornCCBY-SA4.0,afterSteffen,Richardson,Rockström,etal.2015.Planetaryboundaries:Guidinghumandevelopmentonachangingplanet(CLOSEDCONTENT)
Stratospheric
Ozone
Depletion
Ocean
acidification
Atmo-
spheric
Aerosol
Loading
Novel Entities
(chem./radioactive
/biological)
Climate Change
Biosphere
integrity
Land-
System
Change
Freshwater
Use
Functional
diversity
Genetic
diversity
Biogeochemical Flows
Phosphorus
Nitrogen
BIODIVERSITY
Aichi-Goals for 2020:
No More Biodiversity Loss
Biodiversity Loss
(Living Planet Index, WWF 2016)
Skylark
-38%
Black-
tailed
Godwit
-61%
Whin-
chat
-65 % Lapwing
-76%
Partridge
-84%
Grafik:G.Hagedorn,2017.Quelle:DDA,Bestandsabnahme1990bis2015(Uferschn.2013).©Bilder,linksn.rechts:Kathy2408CCBY-SA4.0
;AndreasTrepteCCBY-SA2.5;MarekSzczepanekCCBY-SA3.0;HansHillewaertCCBY-SA3.0;MarekSzczepanekCCBY-SA3.0
Bird Population Reductions in 25 years
Insects
BY-SA 4.0, Sandipoutsider
Biomass
Hallmannetal.2017,PLOSONEhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0185809
Flying Insects:
Biomass ca. -75%
in 25 years!
Earth’s Land Mammals by Weight
BY-NC 2.5, Randall Munroe, mod. G. Hagedorn. Data on right side average of Munroe/Smil 2003 and Smil 2010
Our Biodiversity
Heritage Disappears
Quickly
CLIMATE
HansJoachimSchellnhuber,StefanRahmstorf,RicardaWinkelmann,NatureClimateChange,simplified
Is the Paris Climate Goal Arbitrary?
2017-10 000 Jahre
Paris Range (1.5–2°C)
Temperature
Anomaly (°C)
HansJoachimSchellnhuber,StefanRahmstorf,RicardaWinkelmann,NatureClimateChange,simplified
Temperature
Anomaly (°C)
Tipping Elements
possibly switched
within Paris
Range
Paris Range (1.5–2°C)
Tipping points are
unpredictable!
2° is not safe!
Budget for
remaining
Emissions
ModifiedafterChristianaFigueres,H.J.-Schellnhuber,G.Whiteman,JohanRockström,A.Hobley&St.Rahmstorf:Nature2017
Blue Area
= 600 Gt CO2eq
Figueres Carbon Crunch 2017
CO2-Emissions
ModifiedafterChristianaFigueres,H.J.-Schellnhuber,G.Whiteman,JohanRockström,A.Hobley&St.Rahmstorf:Nature2017
2040November
2017
Was heißt das für unsere Kinder?
My son Magnus is …
6 Years 28 Years
2017 2040
Our generation must do
most of the work!
CHALLENGES
Graphiken modifiziert durch G. Hagedorn, nach WWF Living Planet Report Deutsche Kurzfassung (2016). Quelle: IGBP, 2016. basierend auf Analysen von Steffen et al., 2015b.
Fertilizer
Fresh water
consumption
Fishery
Loss of
tropical forests
CO2
Population Transport
The Big Acceleration
Environmental Impact ≈
Population
BY 2.0 © James Cridland
… × Affluence / Life style
BY-SA 2.0 © Lyzadanger & Diliff
(… umweltschonend = gutes Leben)
BY-SA 2.0 © Michael SternCC BY-SA 3.0 © Joxemai
(…
umweltsch
onend =
gutes
Leben)
… × Technological EfficiencyBY 2.0 Kārlis Dambrāns BY 3.0 M Paździora
BY 3.0 Stodtmeister
Population Growth
or Affluence?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
(Billion)
Population Growth
If Area were Proportional to Ecological Footprint …
(www.worldmapper.org CC BY-NC-ND 3.0; Data: Living Planet Report 2006)
10%
50%
Poorest 50%
cause only
10% of emissions
from individual
consumption
40%
49%RICH
↑
↓
POOR
41%
10%
Emissions from Consumption
(Derivative of Oxfam Briefing 2015, G. Hagedorn 2017)
Interactions
−
Environm.
Impact
+
+
Population
Affluence
Stopping Population Growth
by Improving Affluence?
RICH
↑
↓
POOR
Western Consumption Patterns
(CC BY-SA 4.0 © G. Hagedorn 2017)
Worse than
unsustainable:
Unachievable!
(on a limited planet)
Sustainable
Development
Goals
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS
SDG Orga circles
Economy Economy
Society
Society
Biosphere
Biosphere
(CC BY-SA 4.0 © Stockholm resilience centre, Gregor Hagedorn)
The SDGs address
the connections,
helping to achieve
The Future we Want
Deserted w. Text
The Future is our responsibility!
It won‘t be a thrilling, sexy
„Apocalypse-and-worries-gone“
But it may be an incredible
hard time for our children,
who have to pay back our debts!
Act Now!
M.Z. Jacobson (2017)
Real
Plans
2050 (in 33 years):
Energy: −50%, 100% RE
Economy & Agriculture:
95% Circular/Recycling
CO2-Emissions: Negative
Rich Countries
Have the Hardest
Task!
1. Scope
2. Psychology
GenerationenManifest
Germany: Sign the GenerationenManifest.de!
Discussion:
How can we better Focus on
Priorities and Impact
for Our Sustainable Future?
Impact School 2017
Humboldt Institute
for Internet & Society
30.11.2017, Berlin
Dr. Gregor Hagedorn
Twitter de: @Wozukunft
Twitter en: @BiodivMatters

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