Marc Goldwein: The Return of Trillion Dollar Deficits

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CRFB.org

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Where We Were
1

CRFB.org
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Axis Title
Trump Entered Office With De...

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3
Deficits Were Already High and Rising
Sources: CBO June Baseline, CRFB calculations.
Billions
2004, $413
2009, ...

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Major Trust Funds Were Heading Toward Insolvency
Trust Fund
Exhaustion
Date
(CBO Est)*
Annual Deficit In
Exhausti...

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5
Fiscal Space Was Diminishing
Fiscal Space Until Debt Reaches Record Set in WWII
(Percent of GDP)
Sources: CBO, ...

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6
We Just Passed a YUGE Tax Cut

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Where We Are Now & Where We’re Headed
7

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Projected Annual Budget Deficits
(Pre- Tax Cuts)
Billions of Dollars
Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congress...

CRFB.org
Projected Annual Budget Deficits
(Post- Tax Cuts)
Billions of Dollars
Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congres...

CRFB.org
Projected Annual Budget Deficits
(Post-Tax Cuts, Assuming New Spending)
Billions of Dollars
Sources: CRFB calcula...

CRFB.org
Projected Annual Budget Deficits
(Post-Everything)
Billions of Dollars
Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congre...

CRFB.org
IN OTHER WORDS: TRILLION DOLLAR
DEFICITS MAY RETURN NEXT YEAR
12

CRFB.org
Projected Annual Budget Deficits
(Post-Everything)
Billions of Dollars
Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congre...

CRFB.org
Projected Annual Budget Deficits
(Post-Everything, With Extensions)
Billions of Dollars
Sources: CRFB calculation...

CRFB.org
IN OTHER WORDS: WE MAY HIT TWO
TRILLION DOLLAR DEFICITS BY 2027
15

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Debt-to-GDP Will Rise to Record Levels
Percent of GDP
Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Of...

CRFB.org
Dynamic Scoring Doesn’t Change the Picture Much
Percent of GDP
Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congressional ...

CRFB.org
Dynamic Scoring Doesn’t Change the Picture Much

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Deficit Reduction Just Got WAY Harder
60% of GDP 70% of GDP 77% of GDP 90% of GDP
Pre-Tax Bill $8.8 trillion $6.0...

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Spending and Revenue Are Diverging, Rapidly
Percent of GDP
Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budg...

CRFB.org
Entitlements Are Growing Fast, Interest Costs Are Exploding
Percent of GDP
Sources: Congressional Budget Office.
...

CRFB.org
Long-Term Debt Could Get Much Worse
Percent of GDP
Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Offic...

CRFB.org
We Need a Fiscal Turn-Around
23

CRFB.org
The First Step is to Stop Digging…
Percent of GDP
Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office...

CRFB.org
We Need WAY More Revenue
17.2%
18.4%
19.2%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
18.0%
19.0%
20.0%
2013...

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Entitlement Reform Is As Important as Ever
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 207...

CRFB.org
We’re Running Out of Time

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