Determinants of rural youth migration throughout the developing world

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Motivation: Voluntary migration plays central role in
development
▪ Countries with higher GDP have lower share of labor in...

Illustration: GDP and share of labor in agriculture
ALB
ARG
ARM
AUS
AUT
AZE
BEL
BGR
BIH
BLR
BLZ
BMU
BOL
BRA
BRB
BRN
BTN
CA...

Rural population share, 1996-2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 ...

Motivation: Voluntary migration plays central role in
development
▪ Countries with higher GDP have lower share of labor in...

Remittances as a Share of GDP
Country Population Est.
Rural Share of
Population
Remittances
/GDP
Nepal 28.5 m 81.4 31.7
Li...

Outline
▪ Why study youth migration?
▪ Description of Data Used in the Talk
▪ What factors lead to internal migration by y...

How large
is the role
rural youth
play in
migration?
▪ Rural youth (aged 15-
24) are in the process
of making many life
de...

▪ Availability of Panel Data, some of
which that tracks migrants, much
greater than in the past
o LSMS ISA, but also
o IFP...

Research questions
▪ Are there consistent determinants of
migration among youth (aged 15-
24) across this set of quite var...

Data issues
▪ I use a consistent set of variables across surveys
o Difficult, for example, to come up with consistent asse...

How do we define migration?
▪ Want to use as broad a definition as possible (not just migration for work)
▪ Migrating for ...

(Broad) Youth migration rates by country

Are youth more likely to migrate than young adults?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Bangladesh Indonesia Nigeria Pakistan Tanzania
Perc...

Gender of youth migration, by broad and narrow definition
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Bangladesh Indonesia Nigeria P...

▪ Data are sparse, but
o Substantial migration that is rural-rural (typically for family reasons)
o Difficult to study flo...

REGRESSION RESULTS
▪ Regress an indicator variable for someone who migrates by the second
period on…
oIndividual character...

Individual determinants, broad migration, youth
Bangladesh Indonesia Nigeria Pakistan Tanzania
Gender (1=male) -0.155*** 0...

Bangladesh Indonesia Nigeria Pakistan Tanzania
Gender (1=male) -0.155*** 0.041*** -0.095*** -0.071*** -0.087***
(0.017) (0...

Bangladesh Indonesia Nigeria Pakistan Tanzania
Gender (1=male) 0.123*** 0.065*** 0.021** 0.038*** -0.009
(0.011) (0.011) (...

Individual determinants, narrow migration, young adults
Bangladesh Indonesia Nigeria Pakistan Tanzania
Gender (1=male) 0.1...

Differences, youth versus young adults
▪ Migration flows heavily
influenced by gender
o Males more likely to leave
for non...

Is there a relationship between youth migration and
household consumption at baseline?

Summary: Household characteristics
▪ Not much correlation with household demographic composition or
household head charact...

▪ No distinct patterns between
narrow migration and village
characteristics
▪ Potential explanation - high
returns to migr...

Conclusion
▪ Migration to secondary cities appears quite important to youth
▪ Individual characteristics– notably educatio...

References
De Brauw, Alan, 2019. “Migration out of Rural Areas, and its Implications for Rural
Livelihoods,” Annual Review...

Thank you!
Q&A
Recordingofthiswebinarwillbeavailableonthewebinarpagesoonafterthelifeevent:http://bit.ly/2Wozd2i
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Determinants of rural youth migration throughout the developing world

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