Climate Modeling for the Asia-Pacific

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Climate Modeling for the Asia-Pacific
-- ClimateAP and its applications
Tongli Wang, PhD
Faculty of Forestry
University of...

Change in global temperature
2
IPCC fifth report

Historical change in CO2 level and
temperature
3Source: http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/400000yearslarge.gif

C02 emission scenarios
4

Projected future climates (IPCC AR5)
5

Forests and climate change
• Climate change mitigation
• CO2 Sequestration
• Green materials – to reduce the use
of CO2 em...

Effects of climate on forest trees
• Climate is a major environmental factor
affecting the performance of trees
(environme...

Globally, forest types are associated
with climate types

Regionally, each tree species is adapted to a
range of climatic conditions - climatic niche

Climate also shapes among-population variation
along climate gradients within a species
Species range of lodgepole pine
Cl...

Climate change causes mismatches between
the climate that trees adapted and the climate that
trees are going to experience...

Some existing trees will move out
their suitable climate habitat
Waste of natural
resources
12

Current climatic
niche distribution
Future climatic
niche distribution
Lagging edge
population
extirpation
Adaptation over...

A framework for climate change
adaptation in forestry
14
• Climate data
for the past
and the future
Climate
data
Impact
as...

Challenges in getting climate data
• Not easy to access for specific locations
• Not at a desirable resolution
• Not at an...

Climate Modeling – Climate AP
Interface Coverage

How does it work?
• 1. Data sources
• 2. Downscaling algorisms
• 3. Calculated and derived climate variables
• 4. Integrat...

1. Data sources ClimateAP
• Baseline data (1961-1990 normals)
• PRISM data at 4km for China
• WorldClim (4km) for the rest...

2. Downscaling of the baseline data
• A combination of
• bilinear interpolation and
• Elevation adjustment
bilinear interp...

Approaches for elevation adjustment
• Polynomial functions
𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝑏1𝑥1 + 𝑏2𝑥2 + ⋯ + 𝑐1𝑥12 + 𝑐2𝑥22 + ⋯
• Partial derivativ...

Dynamic local elevational
adjustment
21
Calculate differences
between each of the 36
unique pairs

Improvements by ClimateAP
25
Fujian pilot site

ClimateBC is critical for climatic mapping BEC zones
Observed Predicted
Source: Hamann & Wang. 2005. Models of climate nor...

3. Calculated and derived climate variables
• Calculate climate variables
• Temperatures: MAT, MWMT, MCMT, TD,
• Precipita...

4. Integrations and downscaling of
historical and future climate data
29

GCM data for future climate
Resolution
at 3.75 x 3.75°
30GCM data (CanESM2 RCP4.5 2050s)

Downscaling approach
Future climate
data
GCM
Anomaly
Reference
period
1961-1990
Replaced by
ClimateAP
Interpolation
Climat...

It facilitates predictions for management unit
32
Current Future (2050s)
Climate
Ecosystems
UBC Research Forest

ClimateAP output is better than original
GCM or RCM
Tmax07 of 2011

ClimateAP generates climate data
for the past years (1901 – 2012)
3434

ClimateAP includes 19 GCMs and 41 CC scenarios
for three future periods
3535

ClimateWNA has been Widely used for climate
related studies
40
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Number of citations
Year
This w...

Future development: adding future
annual data to ClimateAP
• To reflect annual
variability and extremes
• 2 scenarios, 3 G...

A framework for climate change
adaptation in forestry
42
• Climate data
for the past
and the future
Climate
data
Impact
as...

Conditions for ecological niche models

Modeling and projecting bioclimate envelopes for
BC ecosystems and tree species
• The basis:
• The relationship between th...

Predicting BC ecosystem
Climate data Ecosystem classifications
45

Improvement in model accuracy
• PCA
• Discriminant
analysis
• Machine-learning
methods
• Neural network
• Random Forest +
...

Observed vs. predicted BC ecosystems
47
BEC Zones (observed) BEC Zones (predicted)

A local application: predictions of Subzones
48Kamloops Timber Supply Area (at 90m)
Predicted (current)
Mapped

We chose 20 scenarios to represent the range
and distribution
Predicted changes in temp. and precip. for BC by 134 climate...

Projected ecological responses to six selected climate change scenarios for 2050s
A consensus projection for 2050s
50

Consensus predictions among the 20 selected climate
change scenarios
51

Model-agreement among the projections based the 20
selected climate change scenarios
52
(Wang et al. 2012)

Results adapted into forestry policy

Climate niche Models – Chinese fir
• Contraction is
the substantial
• Expansion is
limited
• Concerned!
Wang et al. 2016

Masson pine
Wang et al. 2016

Chinese pine
Wang et al. 2016

Blue gum
Wang et al. 2016

Google map based ClimateAP (http://climateap.net/ )
• Spatial
visualization
• Data access
Web-based climate tools for APFN...

Future development: more
species and ecosystems
• More species: 10 species
• China: two larch (Larix gmelinii and L.
olgen...

Available ecosystem classifications

Climatic modeling for ecosystems
Current
Future
Wang et al. 2012

CC Impacts differ among ecological zones
Sub-Boreal
Spruce zone
Interior Cedar-
Hemlock zone
Current CGCM3 A2 2080s
Contra...

Associate tree species with ecosystems
63
Douglas-fir
Associate Project
Future

Conclusions
• ClimateAP
• uses of the best available climate data and improves them
• Adds a large number of climate varia...

Climate Modeling for the Asia-Pacific

Climate Modeling for the Asia-Pacific

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