Longitudinal Small Business Survey dissemination event

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Longitudinal Small Business Survey
Dissemination Event
25 November 2025
WBS Office, the Shard

Introduction and welcome
Stephen Roper, ERC

Event Programme
Session 1 : 10.45 – 12.45
Time Session
10.45-10.50 Introduction and welcome
Stephen Roper, ERC
10.50-11.10...

Event Programme
Session 2 : 12.45 – 13.50
Time Session
12.45-13.05 No Plan; No Problem: Small Business Planning is Sticky ...

Insights from the LSBS panel report
Stephen Roper, ERC

Introduction
• This report cover the period
from 2021 to 2024 and track a
panel of 1,484 businesses
across the UK.
• Panel...

Survey context
• Macroeconomic conditions and the policy environment during each survey may
influence businesses’ response...

Drivers of growth
• Innovation - the proportion of firms reporting either product or service innovation was
30.4% in 2021 ...

Reasons for not seeking external
finance

Growth ambition shows continuity
(Turnover growth)

But growth is less continuous…
• Of the 568 firms which
reported employment
growth in 2021 only 83
(14.3 per cent)
maintai...

Final thoughts
• The panel provides a different ‘lens’ for looking at the LSBS
data. Need to bear in mind however that thi...

LSBS 2024
an overview and challenges
Jayshree Varsani, Department for Business and Trade
Emma Osborne, BMG Research

Business and Corporate Statistics
25 November 2025
OFFICIAL SENSITIVE: NOT GOVERNMENT POLICY

• We publish two separate reports because three sampling frames are
used. SME employers and no employees' reports.
• Consi...

• Sampled 10,611 businesses in the private sector with fewer than 250
employees.
• Stratified random sample within each of...

LSBS content
17
• SECTION A: ABOUT THE BUSINESS
• SECTION B: EMPLOYMENT
• SECTION C: EXPORTS
• SECTION E: ENERGY USAGE
• S...

19
SME employers
Businesses without employees

Use of these statistics
• As a wide-ranging survey of SMEs, the LSBS is of interest to many
Government departments and age...

Contact
• Business.Statistics@businessandtrade.gov.uk
• Jayshree.varsani@businessandtrade.gov.uk
22

23
BMG have delivered the LSBS since Year 1 and look forward to continuing
to do so for the next two years…
We actively wo...

24
Year 11 is already underway… How is
BMG continuing to meet the
challenges?

25
25
Our methodology is designed to ensure we reach as many SMEs as
possible…
Alternative
methods of
contact
Making it ea...

26
Extensive manual
data checking,
including automated
identification of
anomalies
Close management to
ensure an inclusive...

Technology Adoption and
Productivity: Evidence from UK
SMEs
José Manuel Liñares-Zegarra, University of Essex
John Wilson, ...

R&D, exporting and advanced
technology adoption
Jorge Velez Ospina and Michael Breslin
National Centre for Universities an...

R&D, exporting, and
advanced tech adoption
November 2025
Jorge Velez-Ospina & Michael Breslin

High technological sophistication (automation, AI)
Rapid evolution and diffusion
Potential to transform productivity, busi...

33%
22%
20%
15%
11% 11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Artificial intelligence Robotics and Autonomous Systems Extended Rea...

Source: NCUB (2025), based on LSBS panel
Adoption of advanced and emerging technologies rose steadily from 2018 and
accele...

MUTUALLY REINFORCING DYNAMICS
Aw et al. (2005); Esteve-Pérez & Rodríguez (2013); Cassiman & Golovko
(2007) Bernard & Jense...

The Government’s strategic agenda
INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY
Centrepiece of economic policy
•Boost firm-level innovation
•Acceler...

About 40% of SMEs engage in exporting, R&D, or both—and this share has
remained broadly stable over time.
58%
14%
12%
15%
...

Source: NCUB (2025), based on LSBS data. All differences statistically significant at 99%
% firms adopting AET (AI, automa...

Working out this relationship
Tech
adoption
R&D
Exporting

R&D
investment
Exporting
activity
Absorptive
capacity
Knowledge
flows
Market
exposure
Dual engagement (R&D
+ Exporting)
AE...

Research Questions & Answers
Are firms that are dually engaged in R&D
and exporting more likely to adopt AET
than those en...

Research Questions & Answers
Are firms that are dually engaged in R&D
and exporting more likely to adopt AET
than those en...

Research Questions & Answers
Are firms that are dually engaged in R&D
and exporting more likely to adopt AET
than those en...

Research Questions & Answers
Are firms that are dually engaged in R&D
and exporting more likely to adopt AET
than those en...

Research Questions & Answers
Are firms that are dually engaged in R&D
and exporting more likely to adopt AET
than those en...

Research Questions & Answers
Are firms that are dually engaged in R&D
and exporting more likely to adopt AET
than those en...

Key Variables
• Dual engaged = R&D and exporting
• AET adopter = Adopted any of the following:
- AI, Robotics, Automation,...

Source: NCUB (2025), based on LSBS data

Limitations and methods
• Insufficient data for panel methods
• Observations treated cross-sectionally

Limitations and methods
• Insufficient data for panel methods
• Observations treated cross-sectionally
• Creates two probl...

Limitations and methods
• Insufficient data for panel methods
• Observations treated cross-sectionally
• Creates two probl...

Limitations and methods
• Insufficient data for panel methods
• Observations treated cross-sectionally
• Creates two probl...

Limitations and methods
• Insufficient data for panel methods
• Observations treated cross-sectionally
• Creates two probl...

Findings
Source: NCUB (2025), based on LSBS data

Dual engagement impact over time
-0.15
0.00
0.15
0.30
0.45
0.60
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: NCUB (2025), based on LSB...

Impact separated by components of DE
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Dually enaged v.
Neither
R&D only v.
Neither
Exporting only v.
N...

Impact separated by firm characteristics
Firm size Firm sector Gazelle status
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Micro Small Medium ...

Machine Learning to address missing data
• Limitation of this study is data availability:
unable to perform panel tests
• ...

Three central findings
R&D is the strongest driver of technology adoption
Substantially increases AET integration probabil...

POLICY IMPLICATION: support for SME R&D is likely the most effective lever for accelerating AET
adoption, with exporting s...

Areas for further research
1. Explore
heterogeneity across
places/sectors in
more detail
2. Understand the
dynamics of
tec...

No Plan; No Problem: Small
Business Planning is Sticky but
neither a Universal Practice nor
a Guaranteed Path to Success
K...

25th November 2025
No Plan; No Problem:
Small Business Planning is
Sticky but neither a
Universal Practice nor a
Guarantee...

Cooking without a recipe
• The UK business landscape is dominated by many small and micro firms. A
persistent narrative su...

Who plans?
• Human capital: education and work experience (Brinckmann et al., 2019),
especially managerial experience (Ma,...

Hypotheses
• Hypothesis 1a: Planning is sticky: firms that plan tend to continue planning.
• Hypothesis 1b: Planning is st...

Methods
• Descriptive Analysis
• Latent Class Analysis (LCA)
• Latent Class Analysis (LCA) is a statistical method used to...

Most stick with plan (71%) or no plan (84%) 2016-2017
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Yes_up_2_date Yes_but No
Do you change fro...

Most stick with plan (65%) or no plan (82%) 2020-2021
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Yes_up_2_date Yes_but No
Do you change fro...

The persistence of planning
Year If have an up to date plan % have an up
to date plan next year
Have no plan year 1 then %...

Up to date planners not consistently more productive
10.8
10.85
10.9
10.95
11
11.05
11.1
11.15
11.2
11.25
11.3
11.35
2015 ...

No planners often more productive
10.8
10.9
11
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Ln(Prod): ...

Many non-planners with
high labour productivity
After splitting firms into
productivity quartiles
based on turnover per
em...

Planning averse: older, exporters and productive
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Updated plan Exporter Use Tech Old Biz HighPpro...

Two classes of non-planning businesses in the LSBS
The key to explaining who is in class 1 is
Exporters (β = 0.831, SE = 0...

Propensity score matched fixed effects.
• When we simply match for 2023 then planning adds around 9% but overall…
• Ln Pro...

Three transport firms
• Firm 1: Plans, small, limited, urban
20+ years, in transport
• Firm 2: plans, micro, urban, aged 6...

Nuances in Firm Planning
• Interventions that require planning might face resistance.
• Firms that plan (82.4%) likely to ...

Two Policy Implications
1. We need to think about how the planning averse might be supported
because these firms might be ...

Growing Pains: Supporting
Inclusive Growth Through
Understanding Women-led
Business Exporting
Lorna Treanor, Pattanapong T...

Drs. Lorna Treanor, Pat Tiwasing and Gary Chapman
Growing Pains:
Supporting Inclusive Growth
Through Understanding Women-l...

 Exporting can positively influence firm performance, growth, productivity
and learning to support innovation (Golovko an...

107
The
Elephant
in the
Room

 Women-led firms are disproportionately located in service sectors (Pergelova
et al., 2018)
 Women-led firms tend to be ...

1. What are the differences and similarities between women-led and
men-led SMEs in terms of their exporting capability and...

110
Mixed-methods
LSBS Data (2018-2023)
1. We explore the influence of variations in the sex composition of SME teams to p...

111
 We use pooled cross-sectional LSBS data (2018–2023) since samples differ each
year.
 The total sample is 57,794 bus...

112
 When considering majority women-led and entirely men-led
businesses (using pooled data), men-led businesses are gene...

113
Empirical Analysis: Decomposition Analysis
Xi = covariates (e.g. women-led business, business size, business age,
sect...

114
Findings
2018-2023
Majority women-led Equally-led Majority men-led Entirely men-led
Non-
exporter
Exporter
Non-
export...

115
Findings
2018-2023
Majority women-led Equally-led Majority men-led Entirely men-led
Non-
exporter
Exporter
Non-
export...

116
 Either goods or service export
 Majority women-led & equally-led firms → less likely than entirely men-led
firms.
...

117
Findings – Gender export gap (Fairlie Decomposition)
 Either goods or service export (Gap: 7.85 percentage points low...

118
 Small exploratory qualitative study (Strauss and Corbin, 1990; Anna et al., 2000)
 Semi-structured interviews with ...

119
Married Children Ethnicity/
Race
Age Prior Sector
Experience
Traditional
Female
Sector
Business
type
Founding
team
Fam...

120
 Brexit caused friction and increased workload, even for the most
experienced (AEO status firm):
 With Brexit, we di...

121
 Accessing business advice narrows the gender exporting gap – women
report a lack of awareness of available support:
...

122
 Limitations:
 Webpages and documents less appreciated
 Reliance on AI among younger entrepreneurs
 From trade vis...

123
 [Black] Women’s constrained access to Networks, Information and
Business Growth Opportunities:
 “I think lack of in...

124
 ..the usual assumptions around women, that we're softer and we're less ambitious. I probably overcompensate a little...

125
 Controlling for other factors, generally, being majority women-led is significantly negatively associated
with SME e...

126
 Our results highlight a number of important implications for supporting
a more inclusive export ecosystem:
 Rationa...

Thank you for listening…
Any questions/comments?
Lorna.Treanor@nottingham.ac.uk
Or
Pattanapong.Tiwasing@nottingham.ac.uk
o...

128
Appendix: Descriptive Statistics
Export engagement
NO. of SMEs NO. of SMEs
Men-led
(%)
Equally-
led (%)
Men-led
(%)
Ma...

External Finance and SME Growth:
Longitudinal Exploration of Growth,
Productivity, and Net Zero
Transition
Sylvia Gottscha...

WBS - ERC 25 November 2025
External Finance and SME Growth: Longitudinal
Exploration of Growth, Productivity, and Net Zero...

Context
Motivation
Research Questions
Methodology
Key Findings
Implication for Policy & Practice
Future Research
Appendix:...

Context
Context:
• Macroeconomic uncertainty – SMEs more
vulnerable (Miklian and Hoelscher 2022)
• Increasing environment ...

Access to Finance & Business Support:
• SME growth can be constrained by limited access to financial resources
(Cressy, 20...

How external finance, business characteristics, and environmental
objectives influence SME growth and productivity (LSBS 2...

Data
• Analysis of 1,350 SMEs participating in all four LSBS waves (2020–2023).
• Three cohorts (A, B and C), which were e...

Research Question 1 – Key Findings
RQ1: What determines differences in SME growth and productivity in
terms of business ch...

Econometric analysis: Determinants of Labour
Productivity Change (2021–2023)
Growth Ambitions
• Mixed Findings: Growth amb...

Research Question 2 – Key Findings
RQ2: What are the impacts of different types of business support and
of external financ...

Key Findings:
RQ2 External Finance on Performance and Ambition
Figure 1
Sources
of
Finance
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Ove...

Econometric analysis: Determinants of Labour
Productivity Change (2021–2023)
Access to External Finance
• Using finance (l...

Research Question 3 – Key Findings
RQ3: Are SMEs’ NZ transition objectives and future
environmentally oriented business in...

Key Findings: RQ3 Environmental Orientation on
Growth and Productivity
Figure 2 Installed any energy efficiency measures i...

Econometric analysis: Determinants of Labour
Productivity Change (2021–2023)
Environmental Objectives
• 2021 Main Goal: En...

Conclusion
• SME performance is shaped by a complex interplay of structural, strategic and contextual
factors
Growth & Pro...

Integrated Policy Supports
Aligning environmental actions with policy supports, including financial
supports could facilit...

Policy recommendations
Support Growth & Productivity:
• Grants for –
• Strategic planning and infrastructure,
• Sector-spe...

Limitations and Future Research
Data: Introduce Detailed Green Investment Metrics
• Expand survey instruments to capture s...

RQ1: What determines differences in
SME growth and productivity in terms
of business characteristics,
capabilities, export...

Key Findings:
RQ1 Determinants of SME Growth & Productivity
Sales Growth
Ambitions
Steady decline in
businesses aiming
to ...

Key Findings:
RQ1 Determinants of SME Growth & Productivity
Sales Growth Ambitions:
No employees:
Yes fell (56% to 41%)
Si...

Key Findings:
RQ1 Determinants of SME Growth & Productivity
Figure 3A Sales Growth Ambitions by Sector
55.70%
76.50%
62.71...

Key Findings:
RQ1 Determinants of SME Growth & Productivity
Sales Growth Ambitions:
Firm Age
Older firms (>20 yrs):
Increa...

Key Findings:
RQ1 Determinants of SME Growth & Productivity
Majority of
growth-
oriented firms
operate from
separate
premi...

Key Findings:
RQ1 Determinants of SME Growth & Productivity
Figure 6A Percentage of Firms with an Update Formal Written Bu...

Key Findings:
RQ1 Determinants of SME Growth & Productivity
Figure 7A Sales Growth Ambitions – Innovation and Exports
22%
...

Table1 Productivity Bands 2023
Key Findings:
RQ1 Determinants of SME Growth & Productivity
£
Frequency Percent
-999 to 0 2...

Key Findings:
RQ1 Determinants of SME Growth & Productivity
Figure 8A Firms that Export Goods or Services by Productivity
...

Key Findings:
RQ1 Determinants of SME Growth & Productivity
Figure 9A Productivity Distribution of Innovative Firms
100%
1...

Key Findings:
RQ2 External Finance on Performance and Ambition
Figure 10A Change in Turnover for Firms that Obtained Finan...

Key Findings:
RQ2 External Finance on Performance and Ambition
Figure 11A Change in Employment for Firms that Obtained Fin...

Key Findings:
RQ2 External Finance on Performance and Ambition
Figure 12A Profitable Firms and Access to Finance
65%
75%
8...

Key Findings: RQ3 Environmental Orientation on Growth
and Productivity
Figure 13A Awareness of energy saving schemes by Pr...

Key Findings: RQ3 Environmental Orientation on Growth
and Productivity
Figure 14A Awareness of Energy Saving schemes by Sa...

Key Findings: RQ3 Environmental Orientation on
Growth and Productivity
Figure 15A Installed any energy efficiency measures...

Key Findings: RQ3 Environmental Orientation on
Growth and Productivity
Figure 16A Percentage of Firms in each Productivity...

Key Findings: RQ3 Environmental Orientation on
Growth and Productivity
Figure 17A The percentage of firms in each producti...

centremanager@enterpriseresearch.ac.uk
Linkedin.com/company/enterprise-research-centre-uk-
Contact us
@ERC_UK
www.enterpri...

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