Links & rankings, the story in the data - BrightonSEO April 2017

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Links & Rankings
The Story in the Data

1998
@THCapper

You navigate
the web using
links
@THCapper

So links are a useful
proxy for popularity & trust
@THCapper

2017
@THCapper

There are now other ways
to browse the web
@THCapper

& Google doesn’t need to
approximate popularity
@THCapper

Google is a browser
@THCapper

Google is an ISP
@THCapper

Google is, of course,
a dominant search engine
@THCapper

So they have the real data
on user behaviour.
No need for a proxy.
@THCapper

& links have become a dirty signal
@THCapper

So what, for Google, is the point in links?
Are they obsolete?
@THCapper

First: House rules
@THCapper

Don’t tweet this:
@THCapper

Do tweet this:
@THCapper

Has it already happened?
What could replace links?
What should you do next?

1. What could replace links?

The obvious answer:
Machine learning + user signals

@THCapper
http://dis.tl/LarryCTR

This is elementary for Google.
@THCapper

Has it already happened?
What could replace links?
What should you do next?

Has it already happened?

What does Google say?

@THCapper
https://youtu.be/l8VnZCcl9J4

@THCapper
“And I can tell you what they are.
It is content. And it’s links pointing to your site.”
Andrey Lipattsev, Searc...

@THCapper
Question: Are links already redundant?
● Google: No

Counterclaim:
Google is routinely wrong technically
correct about how Google works
@THCapper

Classic examples:
● HTTPS migrations pre-2016
● 302s are as good as 301s
● Subdomains are as good as sub-folders
● CCTLDs ...

@THCapper
Question: Are links already redundant?
● Google: No

Correlations

Lots of people have found correlations
@THCapper

@THCapper
http://dis.tl/MozCorrelations

@THCapper
http://dis.tl/MozCorrelations

We all know that correlation
does not imply causation
@THCapper

But causation & coincidence
are not the only possibilities
@THCapper

We’ve all enjoyed this
@THCapper
http://dis.tl/TylerVigen

And this
@THCapper
http://dis.tl/TylerVigen

But how do these happen?
@THCapper

Potential Mechanisms
1. Complete coincidence - Nicholas Cage and drownings are in fact unrelated (!)
@THCapper

Potential Mechanisms
1. Complete coincidence - Nicholas Cage and drownings are in fact unrelated (!)
2. Linearity - both c...

Potential Mechanisms
1. Complete coincidence - Nicholas Cage and drownings are in fact unrelated (!)
2. Linearity - both c...

Potential Mechanisms
1. Complete coincidence - Nicholas Cage and drownings are in fact unrelated (!)
2. Linearity - both c...

Potential Mechanisms
1. Complete coincidence - Nicholas Cage and drownings are in fact unrelated (!)
2. Linearity - both c...

Potential Mechanisms
1. Complete coincidence - Nicholas Cage and drownings are in fact unrelated (!)
2. Linearity - both c...

Affluence causes:
● Cheese consumption
● Bedsheet deaths
@THCapper

@THCapper
Question: Are links already redundant?
● Google: No
● Correlation Studies: Inconclusive

@THCapper
http://dis.tl/MozCorrelations

@THCapper
http://dis.tl/BSVdata

@THCapper

Therefore:
If you care about DA, you should care
about Branded Search Volume
@THCapper

@THCapper

@THCapper
Question: Are links already redundant?
● Google: No
● Correlation Studies: Inconclusive
● My Data: Yes

But
@THCapper

Statistical Significance: 99.9999999999999999
999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
999999999999999999999...

@THCapper

Qualitatively, what does
ranking flux look like?

Real World Example 1: Flowers

@THCapper
Keyword: Flowers
Market: GB-en
Period: May-Dec 2016
Device: Smartphone
(This is all public data)

@THCapper

@THCapper
What do we notice?
1. Highly erratic

@THCapper

@THCapper
What do we notice?
1. Highly erratic
2. Dominant site collapsed

@THCapper

@THCapper
What do we notice?
1. Highly erratic
2. Dominant site collapsed
3. DA 33 site overtakes DA 53 site(s)

@THCapper
Old-school ranking factors:
1. On-site
2. Algorithm updates
3. Links

@THCapper
Old-school ranking factors:
1. On-site
2. Algorithm updates
3. Links

@THCapper
http://dis.tl/2016algo

@THCapper
Old-school ranking factors:
1. On-site
2. Algorithm updates
3. Links

@THCapper
Site A (DA 53)
Site B (DA 33)

Site A (DA 53)
Site B (DA 33)
@THCapper
40 domains
40 domains

@THCapper
Old-school ranking factors:
1. On-site
2. Algorithm updates
3. Links

@THCapper

This is not unusual.
@THCapper

Takeaway 1:
Google is continuously iterating
@THCapper

Takeaway 2:
(Users like) Aesthetics & Price
@THCapper

Real World Example 2: Fleximize.com

@THCapper

@THCapper

@THCapper

@THCapper

@THCapper
Content piece gains 168 referring domains

@THCapper
Content piece gains 22 referring domains

@THCapper
Content piece gains 191 referring domains

Takeaway:
Links move the needle ...sometimes?
@THCapper

Question: Are links already redundant?
● Google: No
● Correlation Studies: Inconclusive
● My Data: Yes
● Anecdotal: Mixed
...

Bringing all this together

An explanation that is consistent
with all of this
@THCapper

Perhaps there are now two tiers.
@THCapper

1. At the competitive, data-rich top end,
links mean increasingly little
@THCapper

@THCapper
1. At the competitive, data-rich top end,
links mean increasingly little
2. But, for now, links might be a big p...

Has it already happened?
What could replace links?
What should you do next?

What should you do next?

Win at user testing

User testing for SEO: Places to start
1. Panda surveys
2. Click-through rate experiments
3. Plain old CRO - especially foc...

@THCapper

If you want to build links, think:

Would Google value this tactic
in a world without links?
@THCapper

Thank You
@THCapper

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