MNI Connect Video Conference

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MNI Connect
Video Conference
Governor of Latvijas Banka
Member of the ECB's
Governing Council
Mārtiņš Kazāks, PhD

Inflation higher for longer, risks of second-round effects and
de-anchoring of inflation expectations remain.
Monetary pol...

Economic Policy Uncertainty index
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2006 2008 20...

EA industrial production (100 = 01/22)
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
01/21 04/21 07/21 10/21 01/22 04/22 07/22
Total producti...

HICP, HICP ex. food and energy (y/y, %)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
01/08 09/09 05/11 01/13 09/14 05/16 01/18 09/19 05/21
Headline ...

Distribution of HICP (295 items; latest data for October, 2022)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30...

HICP annual growth rate (%) by components (pp)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
01/19 06/19 11/19 04/20 09/20 02/21 07/21 12/21 05/22 10...

US oil production and crude oil price (USD; mbpd)
10
15
20
25
30
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Brent pric...

-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
01/17 08/17 03/18 10/18 05/19 12/19 07/20 02/2...

Shipping Indexes (daily frequency)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
FBX Global Container In...

Consumer expectations survey (diffusion index)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/...

-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2020Q1 2020Q3 2021Q1 2021Q3 2022Q1 2022Q3
q/q y/y Wage tracker
12
Compensation per employee, (q/q and y...

Scenarios for euro area real GDP and inflation
(annual percentage changes)
13 Source: ECB September 2022 MPE.
Geopolitical...

-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
01/20 07/20 01/21 07/21 01/22 07/22
IT PT ES FR NL DE
Covid-19
PEPP
10Y government bond nominal yields (%) ...

Monetary policy
normalization
in 3 steps
15
▪ Withdraw monetary accommodation by
frontloading increases in policy rates.
▪...

16
ECB Deposit facility and €STR rate (%)
Source: Refinitiv.
Progress in
withdrawing monetary
policy accommodation;
furthe...

17 Source: ECB, NCBs estimates
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Data: S...

€STR SWAP implied rates (as of 22 Nov) for the
forthcoming ECB meetings (%)
-0.8
-0.3
0.2
0.7
1.2
1.7
2.2
2.7
3.2
04/21 07...

- 1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
1Q
20
2Q
20
3Q
20
4Q
20
1Q
21
2Q
21
3Q
21
4Q
21
1Q
22
2Q
22
3Q
22
4Q
22...

Bloomberg 1-year ahead recession
probability index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
06/12 06/14 06/16 06/18 06/20 06/22
US...

Eurosystem balance sheet (% of GDP),
excess liquidity (% of GDP)
Excess liquidity and the €STR-DFR spread
(x-axis: EUR tn;...

22
Output gap vs structural balance (% of GDP)
Source: European Commission, ECB.
Monetary policy is not
the only game in t...

Thank you!

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